OpenVC: Mit mest dybdegående videointerview nogensinde!

De fleste interviews, jeg har, fokuserer på min seneste historie og FJ Labs’ nuværende tese og udvælgelseskriterier. Jeg blev meget imponeret, da Harrison Faull sendte mig følgende liste med spørgsmål som forberedelse til samtalen.

Tidligt liv og grundlæggende erfaringer

1. Princeton

Et spørgsmål: Du ankom til Princeton som 17-årig, jonglerede med tre jobs, eksporterede computerudstyr til Europa og blev stadig den bedste i din klasse med en opsparing på 50.000 dollars i banken. Er der et særligt minde fra de collegeår, en lille sejr eller et stille øjeblik, hvor du indså, at dine ambitioner og dit hårde arbejde kunne åbne døre, du aldrig havde forestillet dig?

2. McKinsey

Spørgsmål: Efter Princeton kom du til McKinsey og steg i graderne med rekordfart. Hvad gjorde dig i stand til at udkonkurrere dine meget dygtige kolleger så hurtigt?

3. Aucland

Et spørgsmål: I slutningen af 90’erne tilpassede du eBay-modellen til Europa og Latinamerika og rejste 18 millioner dollars, en rekordstor indsamling for en fransk startup. Hvad var det for en virksomhed? Hvem havde du som investorer, og hvordan så din exit-rejse ud?

Forskningsnotat: Skaffede finansiering fra Bernard Arnault, som ikke ønskede at maksimere sin exit i kontanter. Gik glip af et opkøb på 300 mio. euro af eBay på grund af manglende rettigheder, selvom han ejede 40 % af virksomheden. Blev i sidste ende solgt til et børsnoteret selskab, som kollapsede med 99 %.

4. Medierne

Spørgsmål: Den franske presse var hård ved dig, da den første exit fra markedet ikke gik som håbet. Hvordan håndterede du den offentlige granskning som en ung mand efter at have været en fransk digital iværksætters poster child?

5. Zingy – comebacket

Spørgsmål: Efter skuffelsen med Aucland var du blevet klogere og søgte en specifik forretningsmodel, som ikke ville være kapitalintensiv. Det førte i sidste ende til, at du grundlagde Zingy, en mobil ringetonevirksomhed, som var et produkt, du ikke brændte for, men alligevel besluttede du dig for at maksimere dine kreditkort, overleve for 2 dollars om dagen i New York og blev tvunget til at udeblive fra lønudbetalingen flere gange. Hvad holdt dig i gang i de mørkeste øjeblikke, og hvordan rådgiver du iværksættere i dag, som balancerer på kanten af overlevelse?

6. Astronomisk vækst

Et spørgsmål: Zingys omsætning steg fra 1 million dollars i jeres første år til 5 millioner dollars, så 50 millioner dollars og til sidst 200 millioner dollars! En bemærkelsesværdig vækstbane. Når du ser tilbage, hvad gik så oftest i stykker på hvert trin i skalaen, og hvilke rammer eller tankesæt hjalp dig og teamet med at tilpasse jer hurtigt til dette konstante pres?

Forskningsnotat: Stod over for store retssager fra pladeselskaber, måtte navigere i komplekse juridiske og skaleringsmæssige spørgsmål.

7. Sælger Zingy for 80 millioner dollars i kontanter

Spørgsmål: Efter en voldsom budkrig solgte du Zingy for 80 millioner dollars i kontanter. Efter at have kæmpet for at rejse en krone, hvordan føltes det så at komme ud med så stor succes? Og hvilke erfaringer fra den exit styrer, hvordan du tænker om både opbygning af virksomhedsværdi og timing af exit i dine porteføljevirksomheder i dag?

Forskningsnote: Blev i 18 måneder, men havde en anden vision end de japanske ejere. Havde mulighed for at købe Shazam for 1 million dollars!

OLX

8. Muligheden

Et spørgsmål: Da du forlod Zingy, så du, at Craigslist ikke var så god, som den kunne være. Kan du fortælle, hvad du så, og hvordan du forsøgte at slå dig sammen med Craigslist, før du oprettede din egen meget forbedrede version: OLX?

9. En global lancering

Spørgsmål: I lancerede i 100 lande på samme tid og afsatte omkring 50.000 dollars pr. marked til at køre eksperimenter og finde det første fodfæste, og til sidst fokuserede I på Indien og Brasilien. Kan du fortælle os, hvordan du designede disse tests, og hvilke tegn der fortalte dig, hvilke markeder du skulle satse på?

Forskningsnotat: Resulterede i fokus på Indien og Brasilien, massiv SEO-drevet vækst.

10. Skalering af OLX til 350 millioner brugere

Spørgsmål: OLX voksede til 350 millioner unikke månedlige besøgende, drevet af en enorm SEO-succes og en global tilstedeværelse, der spænder over 50 lande og 11.000 medarbejdere. Kan du fortælle os om et eller to af dine yndlingsminder fra OLX?

11. OLX-exit og konkurrencepræget krigsførelse

Spørgsmål: Hos OLX blev du tvunget til at kæmpe mod en europæisk konkurrent, hvilket resulterede i en dyr mediekrig. Hvad lærte du af at gå head-to-head med etablerede rivaler, og hvordan anvender du disse erfaringer, når du beslutter dig for at støtte stiftere, der måske er på vej ind i lignende konkurrenceprægede landskaber?

FJ Labs: Kriterier, proces og global vision

12. Spørgsmål: FJ Labs investerer i omkring 300 forretninger om året, som spænder over forskellige brancher og geografiske områder. Kan du fortælle os om den centrale tese og strategi bag denne globale tilgang med stor volumen, og hvilke typer markeder og forretningsmodeller du finder mest overbevisende lige nu?

13. FJ Labs’ fantastiske resultater

Spørgsmål: Med over 300 exits og en IRR på 39 % har FJ Labs en bemærkelsesværdig track record. Kan du fortælle om en nyere succeshistorie, som bedst illustrerer den værdi, du tilfører startups, og hvordan du støtter dem gennem vigtige vendepunkter?

14. De ni spørgsmål, du stiller om markedspladser

Spørgsmål: Hos FJ Labs har du udviklet et sæt på ni kriterier til at evaluere markedspladser. Hvilke er det, og hvilke af dem overser stifterne mest?

Forskningsnotat: Team, forretningsmodel (enhedsøkonomi), aftalevilkår.

15. Rådgivning om MVP-markedet

Anbefaler du en grundlægger, der ønsker at opbygge en markedsplads, at bruge en generisk skabelon fra WordPress til at komme i gang? Hvordan anbefaler du, at de undersøger muligheden?

16. Beslutningen om to møder

Spørgsmål: Du ser 300 aftaler om ugen, men foretager kun 300 investeringer om året og træffer ofte en beslutning efter blot to møder af en times varighed. Hvad sker der på disse møder?

17. Globale og uventede markeder

Spørgsmål: Du har støttet så forskellige markedspladser som grus i Polen og petrokemikalier i Indien. Kan du fortælle om et særligt uventet marked, du har investeret i, og hvad der overbeviste dig om at tage springet?

Forskningsnotat: Foretrækker fragmenterede markeder, ikke distributører for andre.

18. Fundraising og måling af kohorten

Spørgsmål: Du ved så meget om vigtigheden af at forbedre kohortetal for en startup, når de går fra seed til serie A. Hvis en startup ser, at deres nyere kohorter bruger mindre eller køber mindre hyppigt end tidligere, hvilke strategiske omdrejninger eller revurderinger vil du så foreslå, at de overvejer for at undgå at gå i stå?

Forskningsnote: Advarer om, at hvis kohorterne ikke bliver bedre, kan det oprindelige ICP have været toppen.

19. AI og den næste udvikling af markedspladser

Spørgsmål: I takt med at AI fortsætter med at omforme industrier, hvordan ser du så markedspladser udvikle sig ud over simpel matchmaking mellem køber og sælger, og hvilke nye tendenser eller modeller begejstrer dig i forhold til det fremtidige krydsfelt mellem teknologi, udbud og efterspørgsel?

20. Forbedring af porteføljen

Spørgsmål: I betragtning af at du har en så koncentreret portefølje af markedspladsinvesteringer, foretager du så nogensinde investeringer på “topco”-niveau, som kan udnyttes af hele din portefølje? Jeg tænker, at noget som Klarna ville have passet godt til de fleste af dine startups. Hvis det er tilfældet, kan du så give os nogle eksempler?

Personlige refleksioner

21. Minimalisme, familie og eventyr

Spørgsmål: Du har brugt tre år på at eje alle ting undtagen 50. Hvad synes du er de mest værdifulde ting at eje i denne kultur af prangende forbrug?

22. Mest mindeværdige eventyr og køb

Spørgsmål: Med alle dine livserfaringer, hvad er så det bedste eventyr, du har været på, og det bedste køb, du nogensinde har gjort?

OpenVC’s præsentation af interviewet

I denne episode af OpenVC Podcast har vi besøg af Fabrice Grinda, en ægte pioner inden for markedspladser, teknologisk iværksætteri og ventureinvestering.

🎓 At 17, he joined Princeton, worked three jobs, and graduated top of his class

💰 Raised $18M in seed funding for his first startup—the largest seed round ever for a French company

📈 Built Zingy to $200M+ revenue, then sold it for $80M in cash

🌍 Founded OLX, a global classified ads giant with 350M+ users and valued at $3B

📊 Now co-founder of FJ Labs, one of the world’s most active angel investors with 300+ startup investments

In this episode, we dive into:

✅ The hard lessons he learned from his first major exit

✅ His framework for evaluating billion-dollar opportunities

✅ How he scaled OLX into a global marketplace leader

✅ His investment philosophy and approach at FJ Labs

✅ Advice for founders navigating hypergrowth & market expansion

The OpenVC Show is hosted by Harrison Faull, co-founder and managing director of OVC Ventures. OVC ventures is the sole investment arm of OpenVC, where 1,000+ new startups raise funds monthly.

Harrison’s LinkedIn:   /harrisonfaull 

Timestamps:

00:00 From Ambition to Action: The Startup Journey Begins

04:02 Building Auckland: The Rise of a Marketplace

06:27 Navigating Challenges: The Evolving Landscape of Tech

08:35 Lessons from Failure: Resilience in the Face of Setbacks

10:43 Reinventing Success: The Birth of Zingy

13:15 The Ringtone Revolution: A New Business Model

15:16 Scaling Up: Overcoming Initial Hurdles

17:27 The Art of the Deal: Selling Zingy

20:32 Life After the Sale: Reflections and Future Plans

25:26 The Journey of Hypergrowth and Selling a Business

26:40 Passion for Product Development

27:58 Identifying Market Opportunities with OLX

30:54 Rapid Expansion and Market Testing

33:40 Transitioning to Angel Investing and FJ Labs

36:01 FJ Labs: Investment Strategy and Criteria

43:46 Advice for Founders: Building Marketplaces

46:35 Navigating Growth Challenges in Marketplaces

49:48 Leveraging AI in Marketplaces

52:44 Closing Thoughts and Future Engagements

In addition to the above YouTube video, you can also listen to the podcast on Spotify.

Transcript

Fabrice Grinda (00:00.141)

play that role and little by little got a lot better but they promoted me and I’m like okay thank you bye time has come I learned what I need to learn and now the time has come to go and actually pursue my destiny and go build tech startups

Harrison Faull (00:13.515)

Amazing. OK, so you had that ambition to be a founder from a young age. You went out, you built your toolkit, you got your credibility working at McKinsey. Can you tell us a little bit more about your first startup, Auckland, or not your first, well, the first tech startup that you had after McKinsey?

Fabrice Grinda (00:27.667)

Well, first venture method, but prior ones were tech as well, but they’re just not big, right? Like they were more like, you know, I building computers, selling them with your classmates and friends. I built a BBS, like the ancestor of the internet. This is the first one that’s like venture backed, lots of employees, et cetera. So the issue is I graduated, I finished McKinsey, was 23. And the issue is I didn’t consider myself to be pretty creative. And you want to be in tech, but I didn’t know what to build.

And so I’m like, you know what, maybe to start, I’ll just take an idea from the US and bring it to the rest of the world. Also, a lot of the ideas, in a way, required a lot of, especially back in the day, where it was a lot more expensive to build startups, a lot of skill sets and or capital I didn’t have. If you want to build Amazon, you need billions in inventory and warehouses and supply chain management skills. If you want to build E-Trade, you need banking licenses, et cetera.

Harrison Faull (01:24.367)

Cloud didn’t exist, right? So you had to build the physical infrastructure, which was already cost prohibitive. Yes.

Fabrice Grinda (01:28.008)

yeah, no, I built my own data centers. I built my own data centers. We had to get Oracle database licenses, and Microsoft web servers. mean, just turning the lights on is like a million bucks. The times have changed. There were very few people that knew how to code. And you had to code for the web. And so even finding them, which is part of the reason I coded the full front end of the site myself, because I just couldn’t find anyone that I was happy with their coding.

So kind of randomly, I saw the site of eBay in June of 98. And it was another one of these aha moments of love at first click. I studied economics and mathematics at Princeton, including market design. And the idea of creating markets which have liquidity, which unlock a tremendous amount of value, resonated with me. And I realized, OK, if you go to these offline,

flea markets, you’re unlikely to find what you want. If you want to sell, you’re unlikely to find a buyer for what you have. But if you put all that online, you create this virtuous circle with ever more buyers, brands, ever more sellers, and so on and so forth. And I thought this is a something, yes, marketplace is of a unique problem of chicken and egg, but it’s a problem that I’m uniquely well positioned to solve, given that that’s exactly what I’ve studied. Market design, a measuring elasticity of supply and demand, to figure out what an effective take rate is.

Fabrice Grinda (02:53.597)

thinking through how you match supply and demand, et cetera. And so I decided to go and build an eBay for France and Europe, ultimately, which is called Auckland.

Harrison Faull (03:03.469)

Awesome. the journey with Auckland was off to a running start. I’m not sure how long it was before you had the largest fundraise of any French startup ever with $18 million and actually funded by the family office of Berno Arnard, I believe. Yeah. So you’re extremely young. You’re bringing this US model to Europe. You’ve had the biggest fundraise and you’re off to the races. The press are writing about you.

Harrison Faull (03:33.061)

You’re on the front page of several different magazines. Can you tell us a bit about the journey of building that company before we get into just as interesting the ending of that journey?

Fabrice Grinda (03:43.739)

Well, the beginning of the journey was interesting because in the US, there was a full-blown tech bubble going on. And it actually had not yet reached France. And so even though I built the company, I built the code we’d launched, it actually hadn’t reached the level of hype. And every VC I talked to, and I was like, I want to raise like $10 million, do proper fundraising. They were like, nah, it’s France, half a million or a million. And I just didn’t want to do that.

kind of engineered the press hype around the company and around me. People did not take PR very seriously. And so in France, the CEOs of the companies were like barely talking to the press. And I basically reach out to the journalists and say, hey, I’d like to tell you about what I’m doing. None of them would take me seriously because I was 23 or 24. But I’m like, you know what? I’ll come to your office and just chat. And of course, I had a compelling story to tell. So each

Fabrice Grinda (04:39.987)

One hour conversation led to an article. And then I became kind of the go-to person for them to ask questions about tech. So they would send me a question. I would send them the article back. And literally, they would copy and paste the article, publish it. I mean, they’re lazy. And so very rapidly became the go-to person to ask tech questions, first in the written press, then radio, and finally on TV, like the 8 o’clock news, et cetera. And at the same time, people started realizing this internet thing was bubbling.

Fabrice Grinda (05:09.996)

And it became a bit frothy and also like it switched from no one caring to everyone wanted to invest in the category and Arno amongst others started reaching out and saying, hey, we want to back you. actually, I remember he actually bid on a foosball table or his secretary did and like and the transaction went well and realized there was something there. and so talk to him and the other people. He offered the most the highest valuation and the most capital, which is why I chose

to raise capital from him. And we were off to the races, I used the capital, we launched a super successful TV ad campaign, which was a way to reach the masses then. Traffic exploded, we grew to like 100 plus employees in five countries, 10 million a month in GMV. Like things looked actually like we’d made the right choice and everything was going well.

Harrison Faull (05:57.052)

Yeah. Wow. Amazing. So you’re young, you’ve managed to convince extremely impressive people that this is the future. They’ve backed you, you’re off to the races, the model is working. Did buyers started appearing? I believe there was some talks with eBay at some point.

Fabrice Grinda (06:15.26)

So eBay, met Meg and Pierre early, before I raised the capital from Arnaud on Europe at Web. And they actually offered me like $25 million or maybe $20 million. And at that point, I owned 75 % of the company. But the delusions of grandeur and arrogance of a completely penniless 24-year-old at that point, I’m like, eh, whatever. It’s money. doesn’t mean anything. I’m doing this to build something meaningful.

Fabrice Grinda (06:43.027)

15 million is nothing. And I really meant it. And it’s funny because I literally, I didn’t even, yeah, I didn’t even consider it. Since then I’ve learned how hard it is to make money and how easy it is to lose it. But yeah, I was gonna make 15 million at 24 and I didn’t even for one minute consider it. I was like, nah, it’s nothing, I’ll make it later. But it doesn’t matter. And…

Harrison Faull (06:47.303)

just dismissed it, literally just managed to dismiss it out of hand like that. It’s similar to your heroes though, like Zuckerberg turning down a billion when he was building Facebook.

Fabrice Grinda (07:12.07)

Yeah. so, and for a long time, it actually looked like it made the right call, right? Like the company grew very rapidly and then eBay came back maybe nine months later and offered like 300 million in cash. So clearly the turning down 20 to take 300 despite the dilution that happened along the way made sense.

Harrison Faull (07:37.939)

And would that have been all cash? Would that have been part of the dot com bubble in terms of equity? And why ultimately did that?

Fabrice Grinda (07:44.979)

It was a cash offer, but frankly their stock is one of the few that held up during the dot com bubble burst because they were a profitable company that did very well. So either would have been fine, but actually it was a cash offer.

Harrison Faull (08:00.308)

Okay, so what’s telling, who’s stopping you taking 300 million nine months after the fund rate?

Fabrice Grinda (08:03.762)

Well, as a first-time founder, you make a lot of mistakes. One mistake is you shouldn’t necessarily raise the highest, the most money at the highest valuation. Picking a VC is like getting married. They need to be with you in good times and bad times. You need to see eye eye and where this is going and what the vision of the company is. turns out that when

the person backing you is one of the wealthiest people in the world, making more money is not necessarily their core objective. And I came to Arno and he’s like, no, I’m not a mere financial investor. Making 10X in six months, that’s not for me. I’m an industrialist. I want to be perceived as the old school guy who got the internet. And he’s like, no, I don’t want to sell. Normally I would not want to sell now. I don’t want to sell ever. I’m not in it for the money.

Fabrice Grinda (08:56.689)

And I was like, that would have been nice to mention when you invested in my company. And usually it’s not a big deal because today you have these standardized documents and you can, there’s a drag along if I want to sell, I can force other people to sell, et cetera. But again, when I signed these documents, I was 23, I had no idea what I was doing. I trusted my lawyer to negotiate the right things. Of course, they didn’t take me seriously. Even though they were very well known.

law firm, I don’t think they took me purely seriously because I was so young. And yeah, they did a really bad job, didn’t have any of the relevant rights to force a sale of transactions. So sadly, we grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory. And what would have been extraordinary, as I led to essentially nothing. Sold to a company that he wanted to sell to, whose stock probably fell 99.98 % from like $10 billion in market cap to

$30 million in 1999. I mean, it was a total disaster. basically left the company with barely less, more than I started with. But interesting life lesson at someone else’s expense.

Harrison Faull (10:06.057)

Yeah, mean a lot learned and not very much time. But in terms of dealing with that failure, that setback, I’m sure there had been several along the way, building such an explosive growth company, there’s always going to be problems every day, but nothing of the magnitude of seeing the value of your shares go down quite so drastically, coupled with you being the poster child of France’s tech guru. And I’ve read that the press weren’t too kind to you.

after that success became a bit of a failure in their eyes. How did you handle that? What kind of resilience? Did you have any tools, any techniques to help you get through that that would be helpful for founders to hear about today to manage that pressure?

Fabrice Grinda (10:49.437)

So first of all, I mean, look, I never took that seriously like, you’re worth a billion or whatever. first of all, I realize it’s monopoly money, right? Like, virtual value of your shares does not allow you to buy an apartment or car, let alone buy coffee. So it’s virtual. And I realize we’re in a bubble. And then at some point, the bubble would burst. So from that perspective, my feet were grounded on a

were reasonably well-grounded and didn’t let that success get in my head. The bigger concern for me was I had been at the right time, at the right place, the right skills, and I’d failed to capture that opportunity. I worried that this was a once in a lifetime opportunity where young people with the right type of skills and background were given an opportunity to in a way like shortcut the different path that you had to go through in life or hoops.

to become successful. And I’d blown the opportunity, even though I’d executed in many ways perfectly from a product perspective, getting liquidity, building a website, et cetera, from a financial perspective. But at the end of day, I didn’t do this for the money. So I’m like, you know what? Maybe the entry now is going to be this niche little toy thing that only nerds like me are going to play with. And there’s no money in it. But I like building something out of nothing. This is my form of creative expression. And so.

There’s no money in it, but I’d rather stay in the internet. This is what I love to do. And I’ll go and build it again. So yeah, I was bit disappointed and disappointing. But because I never led the hype game in my head, the disappointment was more about the fact that I’d missed the opportunity and now I was just going to be doing this little niche-y thing for the rest of my life. It wasn’t going be meaningful or big. So that was more the disappointment. But at the end of the day, I like, you know what? I like what I’m doing. That’s all that matters.

Harrison Faull (12:47.86)

Incredible resilience, but let’s not downplay the victories too much. Do you have a favorite memory of that time of building Auckland? Is there one particular moment where you felt, wow, I’ve achieved X or that was really special?

Fabrice Grinda (13:03.474)

The, look, lots of little victories, right? Like turning the lights on, having the first transaction, having, I mean, we created a TV ad that was so shocking that we won a silver lining con for like creativity to when I made the cover of the French Fortune basically, or being the eight o’clock, all these were amazing. There were two TV shows where they’re following me around in my life as a founder and like, and it was like,

Fabrice Grinda (13:32.178)

number one TV show in France. don’t know, like 20 million or 30 million people watching it. And an entire episode was just following me do business. It was pretty insane, the level of fame and recognition, et cetera, for a otherwise shy, introverted 25-year-old.

Harrison Faull (13:50.124)

Yeah, you must have been able to create this persona or been able to convince yourself that it was the right thing to do to get all this free publicity to advertise Auckland and also yourself. Was personal brand a part of this or were you always trying to push the platform?

Fabrice Grinda (14:02.48)

The, no, it’s both. Look, I thought it would be helpful for both getting traffic and getting revenues. I think it was more meaningful then than it is today. Like today, I don’t care for visibility. Like I don’t have a publicist. I don’t want a big following. I have exactly the right level of fame. I think it would get in the way if I was more well known in terms of my quality of life.

And so I don’t pursue it in any way, shape, form. It was a means to an ends. Ultimately, I don’t think it was actually all that as helpful as I thought it might have otherwise been. Perhaps the doing that in the early days probably helped me get fundraising or capital in a way that I wouldn’t have had otherwise. But it didn’t bring that many users. Because the users are not reading Forbes and Fortune and the Washington Journal.

Fabrice Grinda (14:57.939)

The two that were helpful were the big TV ones where they were following me around. But even then, it’s pretty short-lived. One big TV ad in prime time on one of the major channels would have probably had just as much impact. But I did like the attention. And I realized that speaking came very naturally to me. And I’m not sure I created persona. It was just myself. And I was like a.

Be your authentic self and I think it resonates when you’re your true authentic self to other people, even though, know, I’m probably not probably, I am more direct and transparent than most people and sometimes it makes people uncomfortable, people realize it’s genuine and that’s all that matters.

Harrison Faull (15:39.363)

Awesome. No, I think that’s great advice. And yeah, a persona might be good if someone’s too nervous to get out of the camera, but the best thing is being your authentic self. And it definitely comes across on camera if you’re able to tap into that. Okay. So we’ve had the massive rise, a lot of small wins and some big wins with Auckland, then the crash ultimately with the exit. And then you reinvented yourself to create Zingy for the audience that don’t know.

What was the business and why did you choose that particular sector?

Fabrice Grinda (16:14.714)

Zingy was a mobile media company, to be more specific, we basically sold ringtones in the US market. In the old school days of the Motorola flip phones and the Nokia phones, people loved to personalize their devices with wallpapers or play little games or ringtones, which were the bigger category. And I chose the category despite not thinking it was particularly a large value add for humanity, and I never even listened to music in my life.

Because my prime directives was I wanted to be a tech founder. And in 2001, when the bubble had burst and no capital was available, I needed a company that I could build with very little capital and make profitable quickly. And as I looked at the types of companies I could build, almost all of them required reasonably large amounts of capital that was essentially not available. And this one, the few companies that were around doing it in Europe and Asia, were all profitable. And I’m like, OK.

This is something that doesn’t seem all that hard to execute that I can go build. The US is like years behind. There’s no like text messaging within a carrier, let alone between carriers. There’s no mobile payment solutions. We’re like US dark ages when it comes to mobile. So let’s try to see if I can bring the mobile revolution to the US market. And so that was the genesis of the idea. Because I just want to be a founder and the idea didn’t matter. Now.

Ideally, of course, that wouldn’t have been what I would have done. Ideally, I would have built the company I wanted to build, but you need to deal with the constraints that are around in the environment you’re with. If there’s no capital available, build something that you can build in a shoestring that can be profitable, even if it’s not ideal. Use that as a means to an end to then go on to build the thing you want to build.

Harrison Faull (18:00.749)

Awesome. I like it. But can you give us an insight into the early days? Because I know you went on to have phenomenal growth and a fantastic exit, but there was a long period where cash flow wasn’t coming in. Sales weren’t happening as fast as you wanted them to because you were doing a B2B. You wanted a B2B model, but I think you got initial traction B2C.

Fabrice Grinda (18:22.01)

Well, the ideal model, the way it’s worked in the rest of the world was actually B2C. You sell directly to the consumer, but the consumer can pay through their cell phone and it works on every phone. In the US, you had all these different networks like GSM, TDMA, CDMA, IDEN, et cetera. They were all incompatible. None of the carriers had delivery mechanisms into their platforms that were open or frankly didn’t even have any of them. And there was no billing mechanism. So the only way to launch, frankly, as a proof of concept was directly to the consumer.

Fabrice Grinda (18:50.675)

where we literally hacked into the delivery mechanisms of the carriers to deliver. They didn’t even know you could do that. We hacked into it and showed we could deliver into the networks, and not all of them, a subset of them. And so in order to order the ringtones at first, you had to pick your carrier, pick your phone model only from one of the phones that were available, so you didn’t know what that was. And you had to enter a credit card number on the web. So you can imagine the volumes were extraordinarily low. And the music companies didn’t take this seriously.

Fabrice Grinda (19:20.4)

None of them wanted to give me a license. And in other countries like France, there is a centralized music repository where you can just go get a license and poof, you get a license to all songs and you pay whatever, 10 cents a download or 10 % of the revenues. In the US, there was no standard contract, no standard license, and even no database who owned what. So we had to go on this detective hunt of figuring out which artists worked with which.

Fabrice Grinda (19:50.259)

writers, songwriters, because we needed the mechanical rights which were owned by the songwriters, which were represented by which law firm to try to figure out by which music publishing company to try to get the rights. even when we did figure it out after a massive detective work, the music companies often didn’t want to give us the licenses. And so even though I was like offering to pay them, they just didn’t give us the time of day. So we did a number of different things. At first, I

Fabrice Grinda (20:19.57)

documented who owned what, we launched, violating every, we didn’t even have licenses, we violated every copyright law in the world, but we would actually be sending checks to the different music publishers as though we had a contract. And they pretty much all of them deposited it. And so eventually they caught onto it and the penalty was like $250,000 per download infringement, and same penalties. So I was starting getting sued for billions and billions of dollars.

Fabrice Grinda (20:48.337)

by all these different publishers. And the lawyer, so I get the season’s business letter or whatever and the billion, multi-billion dollar. And I would call the lawyer like, I’m so excited that you’ve reached out to me. I’ve been trying to talk to you for so long. This is amazing. And to be like, who is this crazy guy? I’m suing him for like a billion dollars and he’s like so happy to talk to me. And I’m like, look, I actually want to do the right thing. I’ve wanted to do deals. I’ve wanted to pay you. By the way, I’ve paid you. You’ve deposited the checks. You’re all the checks. So I would argue I have an implicit contract.

Fabrice Grinda (21:17.618)

And if you want to sue me out of existence, you can, but it’ll cost you more and then just settle with me. And so I ended up settling with all the music companies, obviously for what I owed them or maybe 2x what I owed them, not like the crazy penalties, and ended up being the only licensed player in the US. No one else was trying to, because they went after me and I was just friendly. And also I put every last penny I had in the company. I borrowed 100k on my credit card.

Fabrice Grinda (21:46.675)

We had no revenue, so I missed payroll, I think, 27 times. Every two weeks, we make payroll. If I missed payroll, I’d be like, I don’t understand. Something’s wrong with the bank. They suck. They keep not wiring. Of course, there’s nobody in the bank who had to wire. But then I’d meet someone and convince them to put 5K or 10K in the company to make payroll. And so that happened over and over again for the first two years, basically. But little by little, laid the groundwork for what would lead to the success, meaning

Fabrice Grinda (22:16.828)

got the licenses. Then in order to, I kept knocking on the doors of all the phone carriers, but they’re big, ginormous companies. They don’t work with startups. They’re afraid we’re not gonna be around in the future. And so I went to all the shows. They didn’t even want to give me a meeting. Like I would shake their hands, make sure they heard my name. And so to, I kind of engineered the first deal. I, MSN, just like the Microsoft portal, they were desperate for good revenues.

I paid them $100,000 to become their official ringtone provider with a tab ringtones on MSN portal. And then we got a press release, and that got a little bit of tension. Then got Motorola to inbound me, and they were like, hey, we’re running the ringtone portal by web for Nextel. Do you mind providing them to us? So that was our first contract. And then this friend came calling and says, hey, we’re thinking of launching ringtones. Do you have any license? And I gave them like 25 of them. And that took on. once that took on and worked,

Fabrice Grinda (23:14.45)

All the other carriers were like, wait, we need this. And it became a frenzy where we signed every operator in like a three month period. And there was a question of launching. We finally got that. we launched on Sprint in March or April of 2003. We didn’t even know how well we were doing because it was on their platform. We finally got the check August 15, 2003, which is when we became profitable. And so we were saved. I I lived on the

Fabrice Grinda (23:43.443)

couch at the office for two years like living at two dollars a day I could only eat ramen noodles. So I paid back my credit card debt, paid back the employees that had backed salary and then it became a rocket ship. We went from a million in revenues in 02, 5 in 03, 50 in 04, 200 in 05 and yeah this time we grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat.

Harrison Faull (24:05.572)

How much were people willing to pay for ringtones back then?

Fabrice Grinda (24:11.122)

More than you would think. I started 99 cents, then I increased to 149, then I increased to 199, then I increased to 249, then I finished at 299, and we never saw declines in volume. So 299 in ringtone. And if you were especially a teen, and you wanted really the latest hook of the latest song to provide social currency, and so people would change almost every week or every other week. So it became a much bigger business than people expected.

Fabrice Grinda (24:40.531)

And in fact, think I paid 50 cents, I don’t know, $5 or $10 million in one year when he had in the club and once paid similar amounts. mean, the top songs of the day were extraordinarily popular. And we were generating more revenue to the songwriters and the artists than traditional music sales, which at the time were being all pirated by Napster and whatever the.

all the different, lime wire and things like that.

Harrison Faull (25:08.199)

Let see. wow, what a journey, what a story. So astronomical growth, right? 1 million to 200 million in four years in revenue. And then you end up selling. It’s sold to a Japanese company, if I’m right on that. I have to say, like most people do, transition period, pass over your skills, make sure there are processes in place. And I actually found that process to be not as smooth as one would hope. Could you tell us a little bit about

Harrison Faull (25:41.98)

what you learned from selling and perhaps what you might not have known at the time, do you would like to advise other founders on now to avoid a similar situation?

Fabrice Grinda (25:50.579)

The first thing I learned in selling is use a banker. We were approached by the Japanese buyer in Q1-04, and they offered $40 million, which of course at that time I owned the majority of the company. It was like a life-changing amount. I was like, I’ve learned my lesson from the buy time. This is meaningful enough that I should probably take it. I hired Broadview, which now is called Jefferies, to run a process, and it doubled the price.

So we ended up closing with the same seller, but they ultimately bid $80 million. So I sold for $80 instead of $40. And by running process, making competitive, we increased the price dramatically. Number two, while you’re negotiating the stock purchase agreement with a buyer, having someone be the backup is very useful because you’re going to have to work for a certain period of time with a buyer. And so you can’t be the one creating a bad blood, negative relationship with.

Fabrice Grinda (26:45.235)

I would actually be the one driving the negotiations in the back end, like whatever I said, I wanted something different. would say, look, I love you guys. I wanna work with you, but my bankers are telling me this is on market and I don’t wanna look foolish. So, you know, if you change that, I’ll make sure it gets through. And so I appear as the good cop and the person solving their own. So bankers, amazing when it comes to deals above a certain price and definitely 40, 50 million pass that threshold. Number two,

Fabrice Grinda (27:14.066)

If you do an earn out, make it a revenue earn out more than EBITDA earn out because the buyer controls in a way your cost structure and so they can change your EBITDA and that will lead to that will lead inevitably to a loss. Much better actually if you have an earn out to be just time-based. You need to be there and making sure that easy things happen like the hand of control, a la la. Now in case, actually stayed longer than you might think. I stayed for 18 months.

Because actually in the early days it was fun. I was part of a hyper growth company going from 50 to 200 million. We were changing offices every six months. We were expanding the product lines, adding gaming, adding full-blown music ringtones, negotiating deals with labels. We even had the opportunity to buy Shazam for like a million dollars. Now, ultimately the reason I left is actually because all the ambitions I had, which included like buying Shazam, et cetera,

Fabrice Grinda (28:10.076)

were thwarted because the Japanese just said, no, I need the profits. And so they would take all my profits and ship it to Japan and didn’t let me continue building the empire. so we’re like, you know, at end of the day, didn’t particularly love the business, definitely didn’t like them. The cultural differences were large, but I don’t regret selling to them because they paid the most and in cash. And it was reasonably easy to keep doing my own thing on a go-forward basis. So I’m actually no regrets from that perspective.

I mean, I would have wished they’d let me continue to try to build it into something bigger by the fact that they didn’t lead me to the next adventure. So, regrets.

Harrison Faull (28:41.313)

Okay. So you’ve been living on $2 a day with ramen noodles four years ago. Suddenly you get this massive paycheck, all liquid, full cash. What’s top of the list? What do you splash out on straight away?

Fabrice Grinda (29:03.186)

Nothing, honestly, I stayed in the same studio apartment. bought a TV, an Xbox, and two tennis rackets, which probably cost me $1,500 max total. I didn’t do it for the money to begin with, and I saw money as a means to an end, like to have the freedom to build my next company without needing seed capital or pre-seed capital, to not have to worry about, like, you know, if I don’t…

Harrison Faull (29:11.243)

What?

Fabrice Grinda (29:33.219)

food again like the way I did for two years or rent or whatever but no there was I didn’t change anything into my life partly because we’re so busy or like like the more meaningful day was the day became profitable because the day we became profitable and I like that day full-on popped champagne like we were saved like we were the masters of our own destiny we were not going to die and and and that was like the probably to this day the most meaningful day of my like business career because like

Fabrice Grinda (30:03.026)

Until then, there was always a moment where it looked like we could die. And from that day on, was like, OK, now we’re saved. We’re good. Selling was just another step. But at the moment we sold, we closed in May or June of 2004, was the hypergrowth mode. Part of the reason I sold for, in a way, that little relative to what ended up being our 2004, 2005 revenues is in Q104, we closed 4 million revenues, 1 million EBITDA. And the Japanese asked me for my projections.

And of course, you never know these things. I’m like, yeah, I don’t know. We’ll make 20 million revenues this year, 4 million profits, maybe 50 million next year, 7 million profits. Had I known we’re going to do 50 and 200, I would have waited a bit longer. But again, better to leave it too late and better for cash and sock. But as a result, when I sold, we were growing like this. We were probably literally we’re moving off as I take an office, we were we were seven and we came.

25 for the time I moved office. Then I’ve taken office for 75 people. Like, yeah, we’ll never move out of that. Like six months later, like I was shit, we needed a bigger office. So we kept moving offices, hiring people, launching product lines, growing like crazy. I was working so hard that, yeah, it didn’t change anything in my life because my life was still building my business.

Harrison Faull (31:20.396)

Yeah, that’s amazing. I think it’s also extremely interesting that you found so much joy in the process, in the building, over the product. I’m sure you had to be a product expert or have someone there that loved it and made it perfect. But ultimately, you weren’t very aligned with the final consumer.

Fabrice Grinda (31:37.469)

So I didn’t love selling ringtones, but I actually like building product. And the nuance for me, the product is not that. The product is like the website, the user interface in the mobile apps of the different phones. And I love building product. I’m a product CEO. I’m the one writing the user stories. And these days, I’m like on Figma.

Fabrice Grinda (32:03.314)

like creating all the frames and then I use Canva to create different designs. So I love playing with products. I didn’t like the end product we were selling, but actually the product process of building the products. I love that. That I could do all day long. I I still do it to this day, right? I build my own AI, build my own blog because I love playing with products.

Harrison Faull (32:26.979)

I mean, it comes through. It’s energized and say, you’re passionate for it. And I’m sure it played dividends in your next step as well. moving forward to OLX.

Fabrice Grinda (32:38.247)

But actually, one comment, because when people are like, OK, does working really hard pay dividends? And the answer is absolutely yes. But if there two people competing, and one is doing it for fun, and the other one is doing it because they feel they have to do it, the person doing it for fun will win every day of the week, because it’s not work. It’s fun. And so in college, frankly, in high school, my first startup, yeah, I was working 100 hour weeks.

traditionally defined as work, but I didn’t think it was work, I thought it was play. And so, because I thought it was fun, I was just doing my hobby and being compensated for it. So other people that are doing it for work, they’re getting burned out. And if you do something you love doing, you don’t get burned out, it’s just what you do.

Harrison Faull (33:24.612)

I think that’s more true for founders because they encounter so many hurdles, so many no’s, so many failures. Unless you truly love it or you find some passion, some joy that makes you a little bit delirious and the 1 % that manages to get to the finish line, it’s extremely hard to get there without that. So there’s definitely a lot of truth to what you’re saying. So third company now, OLX which also went on to become an absolute juggernaut.

Harrison Faull (33:54.432)

For those of us that aren’t fully aware of that company, can you give us a bit of a market landscape and why there was actually an opportunity for OLX? Because I know there’s a really interesting story when it comes to Craigslist and what you tried to do there.

Fabrice Grinda (34:05.522)

Yeah, so 2005, yeah. So obviously my true love, originally it was marketplaces. So I kept an eye on what was going on in that world. And of course eBay had gone from strength to strength, 2004, 2005, Craigslist came into its own in the US and became part of the fabric of society. And it was a place to find roommates and apartments or jobs and items. And, but even back then it was already looked like it was 10 years out of date from a user interface perspective.

And just as importantly, I didn’t think they did a very good job in moderation. was full of scam and spam and phishing. They basically didn’t have a moderation team. The latest listings would be the latest posted. And then they would use the community to mark the bad ones to eliminate them. So all the latest listings were always the worst ones. It made no sense. So I went to see Craig and Jim. And I’m like, hey, I love what you guys are doing. You’re providing an amazing public service to humanity and the community. But we can do it better. Let’s moderate. Let’s improve the UX UI.

Fabrice Grinda (35:02.288)

You may not want to, you may not have the money for it, but how about that? I’ll do it for free. Like I just sold my company, I don’t need money. I don’t need anything. I don’t need equity, I don’t need cash. I will do this as a service to the community and to humanity. And no, they didn’t give me time a day, they didn’t care. They literally didn’t care. I think in one of the meetings they were like so high on like weed that they were like fading out of consciousness.

Fabrice Grinda (35:29.712)

And every time I met them since, they never remember meeting me before. was like pretty weird interactions. And I’m like, you know what? If I’m going to compete with someone, might as well compete with the person who doesn’t care. Now, the issue is in the US, they already had liquidity in marketplaces. Liquidity and network effects are so powerful that breaking them is very hard. But the opportunity was, while it was big in the US and there were few established incumbents in Europe, in most of the rest of the world, no one was doing this.

Fabrice Grinda (35:59.291)

And Classified is actually an amazing product for an emerging market because in countries where there’s no trust, where there’s no online payment, where there’s no shipping systems that work, actually meeting at your street corner and exchange a good for cash is actually a very viable option. And it’s like, know what? I’m going to build a better version of Craigslist for the rest of the world. We’re going to go mobile first. We’re going to focus on women because…

women are the primary decision makers in all household purchases, right? They decide the car you drive, the babysitter you hire, the house you live in, and pretty much everything else. And yet Craigslist is the least female friendly safe site in the world. And yeah, we’re going to start with consumer used goods because those are people buy them on a regular basis. So we get started getting a lot of organic traffic. And from there, we’re to go to cars and then real estate and then jobs.

Fabrice Grinda (36:54.836)

And yeah, that was the vision. I’ll pause here for now.

Harrison Faull (37:00.377)

Awesome. I mean, you didn’t go slowly. I read a little bit about your first go-to-market strategy, which seems bonkers, but there’s a lot of good thinking in there. Could you tell our audience a little bit of how you managed to launch in 100 countries to test the different markets? I don’t know over what period, but I imagine very quickly.

Fabrice Grinda (37:19.378)

Yeah, a couple of months. mean, basically, when you build a marketplace, you want to sort of supply, so you get sellers on the platform. And you just go to all the sellers, like car dealers, roles and brokers, like, look, I’m building a website. It’s free to list. I don’t have an audience right now, but perhaps you’ll get buyers. So do you want to list? And everyone kind of says yes. So you get supply. We built a little sales team in Buenos Aires in Argentina that was multilingual. That spoke all the different languages of the countries we attacked.

And we created the site, 100 countries, I don’t remember 30 or 40 languages, launched. And then we spent 50k per country, so $5 million total, to test where we could get the flywheel going of ever more sellers buying, bringing more buyers, and so on and so forth. And in these things, there’s a level of randomness. There are a few countries where it really, really resonated and really, really, really picked up in Portugal and Pakistan.

Fabrice Grinda (38:18.322)

And it picked up, lesser scale, but still very well for, I mean, bigger scale overall, but lesser scale is the market share of the country in Brazil and India. And so for the 100 countries, yeah.

Harrison Faull (38:27.368)

Sorry to interrupt, but what does that look like? What does that outlier look like? Is it 100 times return on your capital on the marketing? How obvious was it to spot here or was it marginal differences?

Fabrice Grinda (38:36.508)

No, it’s pretty obvious to spot because all of a sudden, every day, more listings, more buyers, more transactions, the flywheel just starts and just doesn’t stop. And even when you stop marketing, things keep going. And so it’s reasonably obvious. If we were listing an item, the probability that it would sell, at first, was 25%, which was already liquidity, but grew to 50%, 60%. So all the items listed would sell.

Harrison Faull (38:46.589)

wow, the flywheel had already started kicking in. Okay.

Fabrice Grinda (39:07.27)

consumers would be happy. And just like, yeah, it just kept going. So the unit economics were, by the way, underwater for a long time. So our revenue per user is like $1 or $2 a year at that point in time, because we’re only on an advertising model in countries with low GDP per capita. And acquiring customers would cost us more than that. Nonetheless, the idea that you pay for the first customers and then they lead to more

And so the flywheel, it was pretty obvious that the flywheel was working in these four countries. So we went from 100 countries down to four, really doubled down on the ones that we thought had real strategic value. Obviously, if we’re going to win Portugal back to China, might as well win it. But that’s not we’re going to create a multi-billionaire company. It’s going to be Brazil and India. So we really doubled down there, grew it, became very large, even profitable in Brazil. And then once we were there, used those profits to then rescale

Fabrice Grinda (40:01.053)

to 30 other countries and become the leaders in 30 countries overall.

Harrison Faull (40:05.961)

Okay, so you’re building another phenomenal marketplace, which ultimately gives you this incredible toolkit. You’ve been there, you’ve done it, you’ve had two incredible marketplace businesses, and you’re making some angel investments on the side. Did you start off by only wanting to angel invest into marketplaces, or did you have a bit of a spray and pray approach, but then ultimately found your footing with just marketplaces?

Fabrice Grinda (40:30.674)

So before I move on answering this question, I’ll give you a sense of scale. So OLX became huge, right? It’s like 300 million users a month. It’s like tens of millions of people making a living off the site every month. We grew it to, I think 11,000 employees at the beginning. Huge, huge company. Now, my vision mission was always be founder CEO. I never meant to be an angel investor. I never meant to be a VC. But what happened is when you’re a very visible internet founder, a lot of other founders come to you for advice and or money.

And so back in 98, at the very beginning of my journey, already other founders were saying, hey, can you invest in my startup? And so I thought long and hard, should I be an angel investor in parallel to being a founder? mean, it is a distraction in a way. And having thought long and hard, I ultimately articulated, I guess, three things. One is if I can articulate lessons learned to others, it means I’ve internalized them. Makes me a better founder. Number two, I’m running these horizontal multi-category sites,

eBay or Craigslist type sites. Actually meeting and keeping my fingers on the pulse of the market by meeting all the verticals and understanding the latest trends and business models also makes me a better founder. It’s actually useful to make sure I don’t miss any of the bigger trends. Number three, to minimize distractions as long as in a one hour meeting I decide if I’m going to invest or not and therefore I’m going to stick to things I know like marketplaces, it’s okay. So I created my four selection criteria.

Fabrice Grinda (41:58.035)

and started investing already in 98. And so by 2013, when I sold and left OLX I’d already made 173 investments, I’d like dozens of exits, even though was a secondary business for me. In fact, it was funny, in the US, I was known more as a super angel than I was known as a tech founder because OLX is not big in the US. So even though OLX is like literally one of the largest companies in the world from websites in the world, I was known as an angel.

Fabrice Grinda (42:26.74)

Even though that was like my night gig, not my main gig.

Harrison Faull (42:28.938)

Thanks. Amazing. Okay. So you saw it as an opportunity to actually help OLX, help yourself in that journey with marketplaces. You ended up formalizing that angel investing process by forming FJ Labs, which has gone on to make 1100 investments, 300 plus exits. It’s remarkable. It’s a VC fund, but a super angel type model. Could you tell us today what

FJ Labs looks like, what you’re looking for, what kind of investment sizes you do.

Fabrice Grinda (43:06.576)

Yeah, so first of all, we didn’t start out as a VC fund. We started really as my partner, Jose and I were like, hey, we like building companies, we like investing companies. It’ll be a family office to do that. And it kind of took a life of its own. we started getting, beyond getting it inbounded by massive volumes of deals, like every week we get 300 inbound deals, which required a structure. So we had to hire people, et cetera. We started getting inbounded by investors who said, hey, we want exposure where you’re doing.

can you let us invest? And that’s what led to our first formal venture fund in 2016 of like 50 million of external capital. It led to our second venture fund in 2018 with 175 million of capital from 20 LPs, third one in 21 with 290 million from 20 LPs. And we’re about to go to market. We’re going to raise fund four of 300 million in Q1 25. And we do fund every three years. So like fund five will be in Q1 28 and so on and so forth.

And so it kind of took a lot of it’s own, but to your point, we don’t behave like VCs, we behave like angels. You know, like two one hour meetings over the course of a week and we decide if we invest or not. Now, what are we looking for? I’ll answer it in multiple ways. You know, we, as I said, we behave like angel investors. So we invest in every category, in every geography, at every stage. But we’re 50 % US, 25 % Western Europe, 10 % Brazil, India, 15 % of the rest of the world.

We’re 70 % seed and A, so we’re mostly post-launch, post-revenue. We want to fund your growth, but we are also 20 % beyond words and 10 % pre-seed. We are 70 % marketplaces and network effect businesses, mostly in B2B marketplaces these days because you need to digitize the entire supply chains in the B2B world, which are at the very beginning of their digitization processes. And that’s everything.

moving the online ordering of inputs to online, or moving input ordering online, helping SMBs digitize, doing support infrastructure for all the payment networks, shipping, cetera. And I guess most importantly, what we look for is we have four selection criteria. So when we decide to invest in a startup, it’s four things. One, do we like the team? Now every VC in the world will tell you, I only invest in extraordinary founders.

Fabrice Grinda (45:27.398)

But it can’t be like porn. It can’t be something like, I only recognize it when I see it. And so for us, an extraordinary founder is someone who’s amazingly eloquent, visionary salesperson, and so Van Dijkers intersection of those two knows how to execute. And the way in a one hour meeting we evaluate if someone knows how to execute is number two selection criteria. Do we like the business? And for us, it’s like total addressable market size and more importantly, unit economics. Can you f-

recoup your fully loaded customer acquisition costs on a net contribution margin basis in six months? Can you three x in 18 months? Do you have negative revenue churn such that ultimately your LTV to CAC is like 10 to 1 or 20 to 1? And if you’re not there, why are you going to get there with scale without needing every star in the multiverse to align? And there are some VCs will say team is everything, the rest is relevant to them, but we care deeply about the business you’re in. Does it have a good economics? Number three, what are the deal terms?

Now, nothing’s cheap in tech, but is it fair? Is it fair in light of the traction, the opportunity, the category, and the team? And number four, what is the thesis? Is the thesis aligned with our vision of the future of the world? And we have clear visions for the future of mobility, of food, of real estate, et cetera. And we’re trying to solve three fundamental problems, so climate change and equality of opportunity and the mental and physical wellbeing crisis. Are you solving something we care about? And we want all four things to be true simultaneously.

So we need to love the team, love the business, find the deal terms fair, and like the thesis and the problem they’re trying to solve. And if all four are true, after two one hour meetings in a week, we’ll tell you we’re in. We’ll write the $400K check on average. And we’ll be super helpful to you in terms of fundraising and think through marketplace dynamics. But we won’t bother you. We won’t be on your board. We’ll take whatever reporting you’re willing to give us. And yeah, we want to talk to you really once a year when you go fundraise. And we’re going to make sure you nail your fundraising.

Harrison Faull (47:22.234)

Okay, wow. That’s quite a high benchmark. I imagine you have to see quite a few deals to build the portfolio size that you’re after here. Could you give us an insight on how much you actually see and what that actually results in over a 12-month investment period?

Fabrice Grinda (47:37.971)

So we see about 300 deals a week inbound. They come from three sources. We share a lot of deal flow with other VCs. So we’re friends with about 100 VCs. We talk to them once a quarter. So it’s about a VC a day per quarter. And we send them all of our best deals. And they send us in return their best deals. Now, of course, we’re more prolific than they are. So we send them more deals than they send us. But it’s kind win-win-win. When they send us a deal, we give them our perspective.

we’re going to help the founders with their marketplace dynamics, in return we send them a lot more deals and our founders get funded by the best VC, so they love it. And we’re not competing for allocation. They’re writing a $10 million check, we’re writing a $400K check, so it’s not a big deal. So these deals are probably the best quality. That’s about 100 deals a week. Another 100 deals a week are coming from the founders we backed before. 1100 companies, about 2000 founders, they come back from the next company. They send us their friends, they send us their employees. So of the deals we invested in about

Fabrice Grinda (48:33.747)

50 % come from the VCs, about 30 % come in from the founders. Now the last 100 a week come cold and bound, mostly through my LinkedIn, some direct to my email, but frankly Instagram, WhatsApp, I you name it, it’s like kind of all over. Mostly to me because I’m the kind of the vision or the face of the fund, even though we’re four partners, we’re 10 investors, we’re 35, so we’re pretty big. And it is still 15 % of the deals we do.

Yeah, a bit more, like 17%, but whatever. 15%, 20 % of the deals we do come from the cold inbound channel. And while they’re lower quality on average, some of the more interesting deals come from that channel because it’s like amazing founders. They just happen to not come from Sanford and live in SF. They’re in like Albany, New York, or they’re not in Sao Paulo, they’re in Palo Horizonte, and they didn’t go to the right schools. They don’t have connectivity. Of course, it’s better to get a warm inbound, but if we don’t have it, that’s fine too.

And so we see through any deals, we take calls about 50. The other 250 are often completely out of scope, biotech, hardware, et cetera. If there’s not a marketplace network effect type dynamic, we’ll do any industry, but it has to have that. So if you’re telling me you’re building a marketplace for something in space, that’s fine. But if you’re building rockets, we’re less likely to invest. And same thing in biotech, a marketplace for labor in biotech, no problem at all.

for buying or selling components, but if you’re just building a biotech company, not for us. A lot of Out of Scope, a lot is also just too early. Look, we do do pre-seed and pre-launch, but because we don’t invest in competitors, if eight people were pitching us the same idea at the same time, we want to wait until one of them emerge as the early leader before we pull the trigger, because if we’re wrong on the bet in pre-seed, then we’ve shot ourselves out of the category completely.

So we’re more likely to wait until C or A than do pre-seed unless you’re a second time founder or third time founder, and we’ve backed you before, then we’ll do pre-seed. But our pre-seed bar is very, very high. And so we take these 50 calls a week with a 10 % investment team. It’s a one-hour call. We evaluate the four things I discussed. We have a two-hour investment committee meeting on Tuesday, every Tuesday, from 10 to 12. We review the 50 deals. We take a second call with maybe 10 other companies.

Fabrice Grinda (50:52.914)

One of the four partners will take many of the calls, but I’ll take maybe half of them. And at the end of that, we invest in about three new companies for a week. So 300 becomes three. So it’s 1%. It’s 150 new investments per year, not including the follow-ons and the companies we already invested in. And of course, so we have a separate investment committee every week for whatever companies in the portfolio are raising, going public, going bankrupt, whatever, when we decide what to do. And we treat those as net new investments.

Knowing what we know now, the team of the company of the opportunity would we invest in? The answer is yes, we write a check, the answer is no, we do nothing, or if a secondary is available, we might take a secondary opportunity on the way up. And so that’s another maybe 7,500 investments a year. So total, we end up doing two to 300 investments a year, of which 150 are net new on average.

Harrison Faull (51:44.158)

Wow, you’re a busy man. But that is amazing. It’s great to see someone deploying at such scale, at such velocity, because the ecosystem need it. And they’re going to be able to leverage the ones that do pass the benchmarks that you require to get in as an investor, to get you on board, get such great value out there. It’s just,

Fabrice Grinda (51:45.914)

Hey

Fabrice Grinda (52:08.528)

Yeah, and look, and by the way, this is not because I decided, this is the best top-down way to maximize portfolio construction. It’s more a reflection of the founder, my partner Jose, and frankly, the other partners’ personality in us. It’s like, we meet people we like, we want to back them. And each founder is really tackling a problem. There’s so many problems. Like when you say climate change, it’s not one problem. It’s 1,000 problems. It’s like emissions at a cement.

factory at submissions when you’re extracting mineral. mean, it’s it’s a billion different sub problems and each founder is tackling one of them. And there’s as many, there are multiple entrepreneurs and solutions per problem out there. And so there’s a million or thousands of founders we want to back. And so it’s really reflection of personality, even though actually a diversified portfolio leads to the best returns in the business because of the power law nature of venture.

Harrison Faull (53:00.074)

No, it’s a passion. You’re pulling it through. I’m sure you convinced your LPs that they know exactly what you guys are doing, what you’re trying to build, and they’re on board with that journey. Flipping back to founders and advice to founders, given your experience with marketplaces, are there like three top pieces of advice that you’d give a founder who wants to build in the next marketplace for something. What should they bear in mind from day zero?

Fabrice Grinda (53:27.452)

first thing is it’s easier to build than ever before. So don’t overthink it. Just launch and build it. I’d probably build on Shopify, even though Shopify is more for e-commerce than marketplace. And you can then build the seller component on top of it. Don’t overthink the tech. Just keep it simple. Literally, I could probably build any marketplace today if I’m for less than $15k in like a month. Use Shopify. have companies doing hundreds of millions of GMV in revenues on Shopify. It’s not a problem.

It’s not where the key success factor is. The key success is can you make the unit economics work? Can you acquire the sellers and the buyers? Can you match them? Second big recommendation, probably the number one mistake marketplace founders make is they overwhelm their marketplace with supply. so when you start a marketplace, 99 % of the case you’re going to start with the sellers because they’re financially motivated by the platform.

If you kind of go to anyone in any category, it doesn’t matter where they’re selling. They could be selling a service, could be selling a product, and you’re like, hey, I’m creating this store. It’s free for you to be on it. I may have buyers for you. Do you want to be there? Everyone’s going to say yes. Like there’s a very limited cost for them to be on it. But if you just take everyone and you have infinite supply and you don’t have any buyers, then

Fabrice Grinda (54:47.026)

None of these are going to get any value out of your marketplace and they’re not going to have buyers. As a result, they’re not going to be active. They’re going to churn. If I wanted to build a locksmith marketplace in New York City, I don’t need locksmith there in New York. A couple thousand? I could probably call every one of them in a month and get them on a platform, but I’m going to have no demand for them. So they’re all going to churn. If someone places an order, they’re not going to reply. They’re not going be engaged in the platform. So instead, what you should do is you get the very best supply, a good price,

Good operator, depends if it’s a product or a service, but like the very best seller for that product category. And then like a limited quantity, and then you go find them a buyer, you know, spend money. And it doesn’t, I also don’t care what the channel could be. It could be influencers, be TikTok, could be Facebook, could be Google, could be sales team, could be inbound, irrelevant. Just make sure that the economics work. So you find them a buyer and you make them happy. And then they scale the amount of time and products that they put in your platform relative to others.

And once you’ve reached kind of saturated them, then you bring the next seller and you keep scaling your supply and your demand in parallel. You don’t massively scale one side before the other, unless there’s value in having more items, which are some categories you need a critical mass of items before you can actually attract buyers. Otherwise you’re going to overwhelm your supply side. Nothing’s going to convert. The sellers are not going be engaged and everyone’s going to churn. You basically, you’ve drowned your marketplace and you’ve killed all chance of liquidity.

So really scale up the supply and demand in parallel, making sure both sides are happy at all times.

Harrison Faull (56:20.188)

That’s great advice and not something that might become as intuitive to someone that hasn’t built a marketplace before. So thank you very much. Okay, so that’s the founder that hasn’t started. The founder that has started who’s not seeing the cohort performance,

Harrison Faull (56:43.698)

Okay, thank you. Okay, so that’s fantastic advice for the MVP, the founder that’s just about to start their marketplace. When it comes to a founder that actually has taken that step, has taken that leap, they’ve got a marketplace going, they’re seeing some growth, they’re seeing some traction, but maybe their cohort performance is not improving over time. They’re not seeing that next user purchase more frequently. Do you have any advice on what to do then?

Fabrice Grinda (57:13.074)

So obviously finding product market fit is the number one thing that kills or at least success in startups. All I would say is, look, if you’re 20 % away, you’re going to figure it out. You’re going to change the funnels in a way that you can get there. You’re going to get optimizations in your marketing channels, et cetera. If you’re 10x away, you’re probably not going to get there with whatever it is you’re doing today. You need to change something pretty radical. Product, user experience, business model.

distribution strategy, et cetera. if you’re far away from it, probably not going to get there, which is OK. You use that lesson and pivot into something else. And if you’re close, just keep iterating on whatever current approach you’re doing. Now, there are some things you need to realize is something solve themselves automatically through scale. So imagine your economics are underwater because you’re paying the delivery people or they’re being paid on the marketplace $15 an hour, and you’re doing one delivery an hour.

But at scale, you can easily imagine that’ll be three deliveries an hour, and so $5 a delivery, not 15. And there the economics work. Then you can still articulate why you’re going to get there. Now, understand this. VCs like me, want to growth. obviously, we’re not going to fund profitable growth, but not profitable as in you reach underlying profitability. Profitable, you did economic growth. So the objective of your seed is to go to your A. The objective of your A is to go to your B. And from B, then you can go to full-blown profitability.

But let’s say you’re a consumer facing marketplace with like a 15 % take rate. At seed, you’re probably raising the median right now, three and nine pre, and we expect you to be doing 150k with the GMV. And with that, again, 15 % take rate. So if you’re at 5 % take rate, you need to be 4x bigger or whatever, 3x bigger. With that, we expect you to be at 750k in GMV with a 15 % take rate in good union economics, like 66 % margin, let’s say.

for your A. And with that you get whatever 2.53 million a month in GMV for your B. Again, with good economics. So cohorts, we expect the cohorts to improve over time. So the more you go on, the more valuable your marketplace, typically the more valuable the community is, the more items you have, the easier it is transact. And so we would expect new users come in to buy faster, to buy more.

Fabrice Grinda (59:38.643)

and to have a retention that is higher. And so if pretty quickly you see that the new chords are worse than the old chords, it probably, may mean the market is swelter than you think it is because it suggests that you already got all the early adopters and then the rest are not that excited or interested in the category. yeah, chord analysis matters a lot. LTV to CAC models matter a lot. And also making sure you have density in your acquisition channels because

If you’re doing Google almost totally fine, make sure that you can spend not just $100K a month, but like $1 million a month, or $5 million a month, and then you keep scaling. You have proper network effects when your cat goes down over time. If you have real network effects, you start getting more and more organic growth. So your blended cat should actually be declining over time as you scale. If your cat keeps going up and up and up, again, it probably means either you don’t have network effects or the market is more capped than you thought it was.

Harrison Faull (01:00:35.072)

Incredible advice. Thank you. Okay. With this AI boom and tools that are so easy for people to code now, is there anything particularly exciting about applying AI to marketplaces that you’re seeing happen today that hasn’t happened before that could reinvent space or just help that founder put fuel on the fire?

Fabrice Grinda (01:00:58.534)

Well, first of all, every founder should be using AI to improve productivity in their startup. Like customer care, productivity can improve dramatically with AI. Sales, productivity can improve dramatically with AI. Programmer productivity improves dramatically with AI. So you should be using the AI tools. I I take that as a given. Now you could also use AI to improve marketplace flows pretty dramatically. In some categories, now you could just take a photo and the AI can detect the item.

Fabrice Grinda (01:01:27.58)

pick a title, write a description, select the category, select the price, say if it’s real or fake, like poof, in like three photos, 20 seconds, you have a listing. Compare that to the old school way of doing it on eBay, where you do all that work for yourself. It’s like 10 minutes to put a listing, plus you put a credit card details, et cetera. So you should definitely use AI to improve buyer and seller flows to the point that you increase conversion rates, basically.

Fabrice Grinda (01:01:55.739)

In some categories, it’s very easy to do, like trading cards or collectibles where the items can be recognized or unique. In some categories, it’s less easy to do and may not be in the incumbents, rather in a better position to do it than the startups because they have the data. So Rebag, which is a handbag marketplace, has all the data of all the handbags which one are fake or real and what price based on the level of scratches and et cetera. And so they’ve created their AI called Clair to help you list your handbag.

They can do it, but if you were just a startup starting, probably you don’t have the data to be able to do that. But there’s also third party AI tools that can help on the marketplace. So we’re investors in a company called PhotoRoom. And what PhotoRoom does is you take photo of an item, it detects the type of item it is, and based on the marketplace you want to sell it on, it’ll change the background image of your photo to maximize the conversion and sell through rate. So sometimes it’ll put a white background, sometimes it’ll put a nature or whatever. mean, so there’s a lot that can be done from an AI perspective.

And of course, depending on the search behavior, you can improve your search and your recommended listings like, you like this, you may also like this, through AI in a pretty dramatic way. these are the most fundamental ways to use AI in marketplaces.

Harrison Faull (01:03:09.843)

I really like the idea of investing maybe into a startup that needs marketplaces as a customer. So that photo room, obviously you can give them instant scale. You’ve got 1100 portfolio companies, many of which are marketplaces. Bam, instant go to market strategy.

Fabrice Grinda (01:03:21.266)

Exactly. We’re investors in TopSort. TopSort helps marketplaces monetize by selling ads to their own sellers, kind of like Instacart or on Amazon right now. You can buy ads as an Amazon seller. And so it increases your take rate and it’s very high profitable, very profitable. And so we invest in that and of course then we send it to all portfolio companies and it’s win-win. TopSort gets all of our marketplaces as customers and the customers get higher GMB take rate. So it’s amazing.

Harrison Faull (01:03:51.694)

Incredible. Look, Fabrice, I know we’ve already gone over, so let’s wrap things up and just end by saying thank you very much for your time. The wisdom is incredible. For the founders out there that want to approach you, want to get investment from FJ Labs, where would you prefer that they send you DealFlow?

Fabrice Grinda (01:04:10.652)

So if you want to learn more about my thinking, read my blog, fabricegrinda.com. You can actually talk to my AI, fabriceai, at fabricegrinda.com. So fabriceai.fabricegrinda.com to ask any questions you may have and that you approach me directly to send me deals. The best way is to send me a LinkedIn in-mail. And in that message, though, make sure you describe what the startup is, what traction you have, include a deck. Basically, give me every information I need to decide whether it’s for us or

If you just say, I have an amazing story, I’d like to talk to you about it, you will not get a reply.

Harrison Faull (01:04:44.0)

Thank you very much.

Midas Liquid Yield Tokens (LYT): En ny æra af tokeniserede afkaststrategier

Stablecoins hyldes som hjørnestenen i kryptoøkosystemet, idet de tilbyder stabilitet på et ustabilt marked og lover at revidere betalingsskinnerne. Men under overfladen er udbuddet af stablecoins grundlæggende drevet af udbyttet i kæden.

I de sidste to markedscyklusser er udbuddet af stablecoins vokset og skrumpet som en direkte reaktion på udbyttet. Når udbyttet på kæden oversteg amerikanske statsobligationer (T-Bills), steg efterspørgslen efter stablecoins kraftigt – især efter DeFi Summer, hvor det samlede udbud steg fra mindre end 10 milliarder dollars til over 150 milliarder dollars på bare to år. I modsætning hertil faldt udbuddet af stablecoins lige så hurtigt, når afkastet på kæden faldt til under den risikofrie rente i amerikanske dollar, som det fremgår af faldet mellem 1Q22 og 3Q23. Den seneste vækst forklares med de høje on-chain-afkast på grund af contango-kryptomarkeder.

Kilde: DeFiLlama

Problemet: Stablecoins er ikke stabile
I jagten på udbytte har stablecoins udviklet sig til on-chain hedge fund-strategier (‘udbyttebærende’ stablecoins’), som det fremgår af væksten i Ethena og andre. I denne struktur fordeles udbyttet via to tokens – en konventionel stablecoin, som kan indsættes i en anden token for at tjene indtægterne fra den underliggende sikkerhedsstillelse. Denne struktur er opstået, fordi man ved at udstede en “stabil” mønt undgår at blive klassificeret som et værdipapir eller en kollektiv investeringsordning, hvilket ville kræve myndighedsgodkendelse.

Ved at fremstille disse produkter som “kvasi-stablecoins” kan udstederne navigere i smuthuller i lovgivningen – men det sker på bekostning af systemiske risici, herunder:

  • De-Peg-begivenheder – Hvis porteføljen underpræsterer, tvinger likviditetskørsler udstederne til brandudsalg, hvilket destabiliserer hele økosystemet.
  • Forkert afstemte incitamenter – Udstedere jagter højere afkast for at tiltrække TVL, hvilket ofte skubber porteføljerne over i mere risikable aktiver.
  • Regulatorisk usikkerhed – Indpakning af hedgefondstrategier i “quasi-stablecoins” skaber compliance-risici og efterlader investorer uden juridisk definerede krav på underliggende aktiver.

Som Steakhouse Financial bemærker i sin Stablecoin Manual:

“Stablecoins er underlagt likviditets- og solvensbegrænsninger. For at fungere skal en stablecoin opfylde begge disse hårde begrænsninger.”

Men afkastbærende stablecoins understreger i sagens natur disse begrænsninger. Konkurrencen om at tiltrække TVL fører til to systemiske konsekvenser:

  1. Trængsel om de samme afkastmuligheder, hvilket reducerer afkastet
  2. Øget systemisk skrøbelighed og øget de-peg-risiko

Konsekvenserne: Lavere afkast og øget systemisk risiko

Ved at fastsætte en forpligtelse på 1 dollar er det investerbare univers af rentebærende stablecoins teknisk set begrænset til sikkerhedsstillelse med nul varighed. Dette kanaliserer aktiver på tværs af alle udstedere ind i de samme handler, hvilket fører til faldende afkast. Historisk set har overfyldte handler, som f.eks. basishandler på råvaremarkeder, konsekvent underpræsteret. Effekterne af market crowding er blevet grundigt undersøgt i den akademiske verden og har resulteret i lavere afkast med højere risiko. For eksempel har basishandel på råvaremarkedet konsekvent resulteret i lavere afkast over en 24-årig periode.

Kilde: Crowding og faktorafkast af Wenjin Kang, K. Geert Rouwenhorst og Ke Tang

Den ubarmhjertige jagt på afkast skubber stablecoin-udstedere længere op ad risikokurven. På den måde introducerer de systemisk skrøbelighed, hvor et enkelt svagt led i sikkerhedspuljen kan forårsage en kaskade af fejl.

Derudover er stablecoin-udstedere afhængige af gearing og rehypothecation for at fremme udbredelsen. Det skaber et system, hvor stress i en del af sikkerhedsstrukturen kan udløse kaskadefejl. StETH-rabatten i 2022, UST’s kollaps og de seneste de-pegs af USD0++ og USDz afspejler alle denne sårbarhed.


Løsningen: Tokens med flydende afkast (LYT)

Hos Midas har vi opbygget en helt ny tilgang til tokeniseret udbytte – Liquid Yield Tokens (LYT).

I stedet for at tvinge udbyttet ind i skrøbelige stablecoin-indpakninger introducerer LYT en dedikeret ramme for investeringsstrategier på kæden:

  • Flydende referenceværdi – I modsætning til stablecoins har LYT’er ikke en fast $1 peg. Deres værdi svinger baseret på performance, hvilket eliminerer de-peg-risici.
  • Udvidet investeringsunivers – Fjernelse af forpligtelsen på 1 dollar giver adgang til et bredere udvalg af rentebærende aktiver, hvilket optimerer det risikojusterede afkast.
  • Professionel risikostyring – Hver LYT forvaltes aktivt af institutionelle risikokuratorer, der dynamisk tilpasser sig markedsforholdene.
  • Fælles likviditet og Atomic Redemptions – LYT’er deler en fælles likviditetspulje, hvilket fjerner behovet for fragmenterede LP’er og muliggør problemfri DeFi-integration.
  • Belønning af landbrug i stor skala – LYT-indehavere drager fordel af yderligere incitamenter på tværs af protokoller som Plume, Etherlink og TAC.

Sådan fungerer Liquid Yield Tokens (LYT)

Liquid Yield Tokens (LYT) udstedes gennem Midas’ åbne og sammensættelige infrastruktur. Denne tilgang adskiller rollerne som udsteder og risikostyrer, så brugerne kan drage fordel af skræddersyet risikokuratering.

Sikkerhedsstillelsen for hvert token administreres af dedikerede risikomanagere, der arbejder under specifikke mandater og rapporteres gennemsigtigt på kæden. Risikomanageren allokerer dynamisk sikkerhedsstillelse til de bedste muligheder og tilpasser sig skiftende markedsforhold for at opnå alfa og samtidig styre risici.

LYT’er udstedes gennem Midas’ åbne, komponerbare infrastruktur. I modsætning til stablecoins adskiller LYT-tokens klart rollerne som udstedere og risikomanagere. Hver LYT administreres af dedikerede risikokuratorer, som dynamisk tildeler sikkerhed til de bedste risikobelønningsstrategier.

Hver LYT udstedes som et tilladelsesfrit ERC-20-token, hvilket gør det fuldt kompatibelt med det bredere DeFi-økosystem.

På tværs af alle LYT’ er har Midas implementeret delte likviditetspuljer til øjeblikkelige indløsninger. I stedet for at kræve incitamenter til likviditetsudvinding er LYT’er designet til kapitaleffektiv skalering og dyb DeFi-integration. Protokoller som Morpho, Euler og Anja understøtter allerede LYT’er.


Vi præsenterer tre nye LYT’er

I dag lancerer vi mRE7YIELD, mEDGE og mMEV, som hver især er risikokurateret af førende firmaer.

mRE7YIELD – Risikostyret af RE7 Capital

RE7 Capital er et forskningsdrevet investeringsselskab for digitale aktiver med fokus på DeFi-afkast og likvide alfastrategier. Med en gennemprøvet institutionel tilgang leverer mRE7YIELD aktivt forvaltet eksponering mod strukturerede renteprodukter.

  • Nuværende APY: 20,83%.
  • Strukturerede afkaststrategier med institutionel kvalitet
  • Aktivt styret for at fange markedsineffektivitet

mEDGE – Risikostyret af Edge Capital

Edge Capital er en førende hedgefond for digitale aktiver og udbyder af DeFi-likviditet, der forvalter kapital for institutionelle investorer og kryptofonde. Deres markedsneutrale strategier er designet til at generere konsistente, højrisikojusterede afkast.

  • Nuværende APY: 20,12%.
  • 230 MILLIONER DOLLARS ELLER MERE I AUM
  • Fire års revideret track record med et Sharpe-forhold på 3,5

mMEV – Risikostyret af MEV Capital

MEV Capital er et investeringsselskab, der har specialiseret sig i risikostyrede, DeFi-native udbyttestrategier. Med ekspertise inden for likviditetstilførsel og strukturerede udbytteprodukter giver det adgang til muligheder med højt udbytte på decentrale markeder.

  • Nuværende APY: 17,53%.
  • 350 MILLIONER DOLLARS ELLER MERE I AUM
  • 10+ kuraterede offentlige bokse på tværs af flere kæder

Du kan også finde en kortfattet oversigt over, hvordan Liquid Yield Tokens (LYT’er) fungerer i vores Twitter-tråd og LinkedIn-indlæg.

For mediedækning, tjek pressemeddelelserne på The Block & Coindesk.

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Unicorn Bakery-samtale: 2025-tendenser for B2B- og B2C-markedspladser

Jeg havde fornøjelsen af at chatte med Fabian Tausch fra Unicorn Bakery. Vi talte om venturemarkedernes tilstand, fremkomsten af B2B-markedspladser, AI’s indvirkning på nystartede virksomheder, og hvorfor børsintroduktioner stadig er svære at undgå for mange virksomheder.

Vi diskuterede det:

  • Hvorfor venturemarkedet begynder at komme sig i 2025 efter mange års stagnation.
  • Hvordan B2B-markedspladser forandrer brancher, og hvorfor de stadig er i deres tidlige stadier.
  • AI’s rolle i at forbedre markedets effektivitet og omdefinere forretningsmodeller.
  • Hvorfor børsintroduktioner stadig er en udfordring, og hvad der skal ændres, for at virksomheder kan blive børsnoterede.
  • Hvordan stiftere kan opbygge forsvarsevne og skabe netværkseffekter på deres markedspladser.
  • De vigtigste tendenser i 2025 omfatter live-handel, grænseoverskridende markedspladser og digitalisering af små og mellemstore virksomheder.

Kapitler:

(00:00:00) Hvilke tidsrammer ser Fabrice på, når han bygger en tese?

(00:02:20) “Look-Back-Sentiment” for 2024 og “Look-Out” for 2025

(00:07:11) Hvad skal ændres for at gøre IPO-markederne attraktive igen?

(00:10:38) Hvordan ændrer markedsdynamikken venturebranchen?

(00:16:23) Aktuelle tendenser i nye virksomheder

(00:29:52) AI-indvirkningen på forsvarbarhed

(00:35:06) De forhindringer, man støder på, når man starter en markedsplads i dag

Hvis du foretrækker det, kan du lytte til episoden i den indlejrede podcast-afspiller.

Ud over ovenstående YouTube-video og den indlejrede podcast-afspiller kan du også lytte til podcasten på iTunes og Spotify.


Udskrift

Fabian Tausch:

[0:00] Velkommen til en ny episode af Unicorn Bakery. I dag kigger vi på markedspladser og på 2025, fordi året accelererer, og alt er ved at komme tilbage på sporet, og alle arbejder igen. Og derfor har jeg besluttet at få Fabrice Grindag med. Og Fabrice er nok den bedste til at tale om markedspladser efter at have foretaget 1.192 unikke investeringer med FJ Labs indtil videre. Og FJ Labs 3 er en fond, der nærmer sig sin afslutning, forbereder fj4, jeg kalder den fj4 nu, fordi den er hurtigere, men slutter med mere end eller 355 exits for at være præcis, inklusive delvise exits, sandsynligvis en af de mest, jeg kalder det latterligt, og det er nok ikke det rigtige ord, men latterlige historier, jeg har hørt i de sidste år, og en af de mest unikke personligheder, selv når der også er et stort team bag, som jeg lærte at kende, så derfor tænkte jeg, at vi skulle tale om markedspladser i dag, og jeg er superglad for at have dig med i showet igen, tak.

Fabrice Grinda:

[0:57] Du for at have mig

Fabian Tausch:

[0:58] Så du har selv været grundlægger, og nu investerer du, hvordan vurderer du det, når du kender begge perspektiver, hvordan vurderer du et år, hvilke tidsrammer ser du på, når du træffer beslutninger og bygger teser, så vi er jeg.

Fabrice Grinda:

[1:14] Jeg ville sige en fond af bottom-up-typen, hvilket betyder, at vi ikke har en eksisterende porteføljekonstruktion, hvor vi siger, at vi vil investere i mange virksomheder, og at dette skal være tesen. Jeg tror, det er mere sådan, at hvis vi møder stiftere, vi kan lide, så investerer vi. Hvis ikke, så gør vi det ikke. Og i år som 21, hvor vi følte, at alt var overvurderet, investerede vi i færre virksomheder. Og i år som 23 eller 24, hvor markederne, bortset fra AI, var mere deprimerede, investerede vi som gale, fordi vi følte, at mulighederne var store. Og tesen er den samme. Vi har perspektiv, vi ser tendenserne, og hvordan virksomhederne udvikler sig. Og når vi ser tendenser udvikle sig, fordi nye grundlæggere kommer med nye modeller og tilgange, udvikler vi vores tese over tid, og vi har set markedspladser starte med disse dobbeltforpligtelsesmodeller og derefter blive mere vertikaliserede, så de var horisontale markedspladser og vertikale markedspladser, så er de administrerede markedspladser, og så har vi markedspladser af typen marketplace pick, jeg vil beskrive, hvad det er, og der er helt sikkert mange flere tendenser, der sker nu i 2025, og vi er stadig helt i begyndelsen, chokerende nok, af markedspladsrevolutionen, så…

Fabian Tausch:

[2:20] Hvad er stemningen for 2025? Og for at dykke ned i det, når du ser tilbage på 2024, hvad var så… Se tilbage på stemningen for 2024 og derefter på 2025 baseret på det, ja.

Fabrice Grinda:

[2:34] Lad mig tale om stemningen i venture-kategorien, så 21 var selvfølgelig et boblende år, hvor alting skummede, og alting var overvurderet, og da renterne steg, fordi venture er et risikoaktiv, var der massive nedskæringer, og venture har i bund og grund været i en recession og endda depression, hvis ikke en kold vinter i de sidste par år. Så 23 og 24 har vi samlede ventureinvesteringer, der er faldet med 66 til 75 % fra top til bund. Måske var toppen overvurderet i 21, men der er tale om et massivt fald i antallet af investeringer, lavere checkstørrelser og stort set ingen exit og ingen likviditet, der blev opnået. Og når det er sagt, så har det været en fortælling om to byer. Der har været venturebranchen som helhed, som har været som en dyb depression. Der har været AI, som har været ekstraordinært varmt og skummende og boblende og fortsætter med at være det. Så jeg troede faktisk, at hvis jeg ser tilbage på 24, så forventede jeg, at den dybe tech-recession ville fortsætte, og det er den blevet. Renterne forblev høje. Likviditetsmulighederne forblev begrænsede.

Fabrice Grinda:

[3:41] M&A var begrænset, dels fordi virksomhederne ikke havde masser af penge uden for AI, og fordi M&A for det meste er blevet kvalt af reguleringsordningerne. SEC, FTC, FCC osv. har i bund og grund begrænset en masse M&A. Så store virksomheder købte ikke andre virksomheder, og IPO-markederne har været lukkede. Så der har ikke været nogen likviditet. Mange LP’er følte sig overeksponeret i forhold til venture. Så venture som helhed har generelt været i en bølgedal, undtagen inden for AI. Inden for AI så mange mennesker den ekstraordinære vækst i åben AI. De følte, at de ville gå glip af båden, og de var dybest set ikke all in, al AI hele tiden, og de forstod ikke rigtig, hvad de investerede i og differentierede de fantastiske produkter, der ikke var så fantastiske, og de investerede ofte i, hvad jeg ville betragte som værktøjer, der er okay, men som co-piloter eller lignende, men de er ikke rigtig differentierede. De har ikke differentierede datasæt, differentierede LLM’er, ingen levedygtig forretningsmodel og værst af alt en vanvittig værdiansættelse. Så jeg tror, at der på et eller andet tidspunkt kommer en dommedag inden for AI-investeringer, selv om AI vil forandre vores verden. Men nej, det har været en skummende forretning med kunstig intelligens, mens det har været dødt alle andre steder. Nu i 25,

Fabrice Grinda:

[4:50] Makroen har faktisk været ret god. Vi har sænket inflationen, fuld beskæftigelse, og den økonomiske vækst og produktivitetsvæksten har været ret god. Når jeg ser frem mod 2025, tror jeg, at det bliver mere af det samme. Makroen er, at vi ikke længere befinder os i et makrodrevet miljø. Vi befinder os i et miljø med lidt lavere renter, hvilket er lidt mere gunstigt. Og de generelle fundamentale forhold er fortsat ret gode med rimelig lav inflation, høj beskæftigelse, lav arbejdsløshed og ret god produktivitetsvækst. Jeg håber, det er et håb, at M&A-markederne og IPO-markederne begynder at åbne igen, og at vi endelig begynder at se exit af de allerbedste virksomheder i porteføljen. Jeg tror, det vil starte i 25 og fortsætte ind i 26 og forhåbentlig accelerere i 26 og 27. Og som følge heraf tror jeg, at venturemarkedet vil være stort eller begynde at komme ud af dødvandet uden for AI i 2025. Så jeg er faktisk mere optimistisk, end jeg har været på venturemarkedet i 25 og 26, end jeg var tidligere. Og ja, jeg holder en pause her.

Fabian Tausch:

[5:56] Skal der først ske exit, før venturemarkedet begynder at accelerere igen? Eller siger du, at på grund af forventningen om, at dette vil ske i 25, 26 eller 27, uanset hvad den nøjagtige dato bliver, er alle mere tilbøjelige, og også LP er mere tilbøjelige til at investere penge i fonde igen. Så hvad er dynamikken her?

Fabrice Grinda:

[6:17] Jeg tror, det er lidt af begge dele. Det er klart, at når der sker exit, får LP’erne likviditet, og de er mere villige til at omskrive checks til venturefonde. Men generelt, fordi andre aktivklasser, især de offentlige markeder, har klaret sig ret godt, er der et vist niveau af likviditet, og renterne er begyndt at falde. Så jeg formoder, at selv uden de tidlige indikationer på exit, vil der være en større appetit på venture og ventureinvesteringer i 25 i forhold til 23 og 24. Det er klart, at det vil accelerere for at blive hjulpet meget af exits, men hvis de ikke sker endnu, tror jeg nok, det er okay.

Fabian Tausch:

[6:55] Jeg lavede for nylig en kort episode med Kevin Hartz, som du måske også kender, og Kevin sagde, at der ikke er noget incitament til at gå på børsen i øjeblikket, og det er det, vi taler om. Og han siger også, at det ikke kommer til at ske foreløbig. Og jeg tænker, hvorfor er der ikke, og er du enig i det, er vist det første spørgsmål. Og det andet spørgsmål er, hvad der skal ændres, for at IPO-markederne bliver mere attraktive igen for de gode virksomheder, som du også nævner, og siger, hey, de bedste virksomheder, vi har i porteføljerne, er i øjeblikket ikke afsluttet og ikke børsnoteret. Så hvad skal der til for at ændre sig?

Fabrice Grinda:

[7:30] Der er forskellige grunde til, at folk ikke vil børsnoteres. For det første, hvis vi er de allerbedste virksomheder i porteføljen, og du vokser meget hurtigt, er der ingen grund til at gå på børsen, vel? Hvis du er SpaceX eller Stripe, og du allerede har adgang til likviditet gennem sekundære markeder, og investorer kaster kapital efter dig, uanset at du allerede er hundredvis af milliarder værd i SpaceX’ tilfælde… Så giver det sandsynligvis mening at udskyde børsintroduktionen, især fordi du ikke ønsker at håndtere alle ulemperne ved at være offentlig, at have alle oplysningerne derude, at håndtere Section 404 og SOX-overholdelse og alle de lovgivningsmæssige regler og den smerte, der følger med at være offentlig. Og så tror jeg, at vi indirekte investerede i SpaceX i 2007, og der er gået 18, 17 år, og de er stadig, vi er 18 år på dette tidspunkt, og de er stadig ikke børsnoterede og bliver det ikke foreløbig. og det er okay. Der er virksomheder, som ikke rigtig kan blive børsnoteret, fordi de rejser penge til meget høje priser. Og i dag ville de offentlige markeder faktisk have en lavere værdiansættelse end de private brands. Så for dem er det ikke attraktivt at gå på børsen, medmindre de rent faktisk har brug for kapitalen, og de er udelukket fra de private markeder. Men helt ærligt er de måske ikke de bedste kandidater. Men der er et mellemtrin af virksomheder, som jeg tror er klar til at blive børsnoteret.

Fabrice Grinda:

[8:49] De er rimeligt prissat i forhold til sidste runde, og en børsnotering ville være en likviditetsbegivenhed for deres investorer, stiftere og LP’er. Og de er også sent nok i spillet til, at der faktisk ikke er nogen, de er allerede en serie G lige nu. Så måske er der ikke mere kapital på de private markeder, som virkelig giver mening. Og for dem tror jeg, at det giver mening at gå på børsen. Og der er virksomheder som ShipBob eller Flexport eller Klarna, og jeg tror, de vil blive børsnoteret på et tidspunkt i løbet af 25 eller 26. Når det er sagt, så er universet af virksomheder, hvor det giver mening at gå på børsen, mere begrænset. Er der en måde at gøre det mindre besværligt at gå på børsen på, både hvad angår omkostninger og tilsyn? Måske.

Fabrice Grinda:

[9:32] Det er smertefuldt nok til, at det ikke giver mening at blive børsnoteret, medmindre man er over 5 milliarder dollars værd. Ellers har du ikke likviditet, du har ikke endeløs dækning. Og det plejede at være meget anderledes. Jeg tror, at Microsoft gik på børsen med en markedsværdi på 260 millioner dollars. Hvis du er 360 millioner dollars værd i dag, har du ikke råd til at gå på børsen. Det koster dig flere millioner om året at være børsnoteret, og du har ingen dækning og ingen likviditet. Så ønsker vi at få det ned igen? Måske, men i så fald kræver det en ret gennemgribende ændring af regelsættet, som jeg ikke ser i kortene. Så jeg formoder, at tærsklen for at blive børsnoteret, i hvert fald i USA, fortsat vil være ret høj. Og det er okay. Jeg tror, det er ment som en slags beskyttelse af investorer på det offentlige marked og offentligheden generelt, når de køber aktier, og de køber ikke dårlige virksomheder. Men det betyder også, at de formentlig bliver afskåret fra virksomheder med høj vækst, hvor det meste af den høje vækst sker på de private markeder. Og når de så ikke længere er i høj vækst, bliver de børsnoteret. Så det er lidt surt, hvis man er investor på det offentlige marked, for det betyder, at det meste af værdien tilfalder folk som mig på den private side. Det er, hvad det er ud fra et strukturelt perspektiv.

Fabian Tausch:

[10:38] Hvad betyder hele denne dynamik for folk som dig, der driver fonde, som typisk kører på 10 plus 2 basis, så 10 års investeringshorisont kan justeres en smule og forlænges? Men når man ser alle disse dynamikker, der flytter en virksomheds livscyklus, indtil der sker en likviditetsbegivenhed i fremtiden, hvordan ændrer det så venturebranchen?

Fabrice Grinda:

[11:05] Varigheden fra investering til exit er steget dramatisk. Den er blevet ved med at stige i løbet af de sidste 20 år. Og ja, i dag, hvis du investerer i seed, vil du sandsynligvis, for de allerbedste virksomheder, gå ud over de 12 år, de 10 plus 2. Og du bliver nødt til at få breve fra dine LPA’er for at forlænge endnu mere. Det giver faktisk god mening at gøre det, for de forrentes aggressivt, og man ønsker ikke at trække sig ud for tidligt i nogen af dem. Problemet set fra venturebranchens perspektiv er, at DPI’erne har været rimeligt lave, så den distribuerede kapital, hvor meget exit vi har fået på vej op, det delta mellem, hvornår du rejser en fond, og hvornår du får kapitalen, der kan være en forsinkelse på tre fonde. Vi er i gang med fond fire nu, som vi er ved at rejse i første kvartal af 25 %.

Fabrice Grinda:

[11:56] Vores fond 1 er nu fuldt distribueret, hvilket betyder, at vi har returneret 1x kapitalen. Så på en måde går fond 1 ud, og vi ligger i den øverste decil af DPI. I de fleste fonde er der en forsinkelse på fire, fem eller seks fonde mellem investering og exit, hvilket er et enormt negativt cash flow. Men for folk som os betyder det, at vi på en måde har kunnet slippe godt fra det med en høj DPI, fordi vi skriver små checks. Vi har fået mange udgange gennem sekundære markeder. Og så er de sekundære markeder faktisk eksploderet. Så en af de større tendenser inden for venture er, at der er flere og flere secondaries, både i virksomheder, men faktisk også i fonde. Der er nye investorer, som køber hele positioner eller LP-positioner fra andre LP’er, især i fonde i den sene fase eller i fonde, som har været i gang i 10 eller 12 år, og folk er trætte og vil bare ud. Og der er også folk, der køber positioner i fondens GP’er. Så sekundære fonde bliver større og større. Og sekundære markedspladser som Forge, Equities, InsurancePost, NASDAQ, private markeder bliver større og større, fordi folk søger likviditet. Så det er en megatrend. Og ved at investere lige nu tror jeg, at det giver god mening at investere i sekundære fonde, fordi likviditeten er meget høj. Så du kan både købe positioner i virksomheder med gode rabatter, men du kan også købe positioner i gode fonde med meget store rabatter på 40, 50, 60 % i forhold til NAV af folk, som ønsker likviditet.

Fabian Tausch:

[13:26] På hvilken måde påvirker det, hvordan jeg som stifter skal finde ud af, hvem jeg vil have med om bord som investor?

Fabrice Grinda:

[13:34] Generelt er det at vælge en ambassadør som et ægteskab, ikke? De er din hovedambassadør. De sidder i din bestyrelse. Du kommer til at være sammen med dem for evigt. Så vælg en, der kan lide dig, forstår, hvad du laver, støtter dig og vil være sammen med dig i gode og dårlige tider. Fra VC’ens kapitalstrukturperspektiv vælger jeg VC’er, som grundlæggende er langsigtede investorer. Og om de trækker sig ud om 5 år, 10 år eller 15 år, er på en måde ligegyldigt for dem. Og derfor vil du ikke blive presset til en tidligere exit, end du gerne vil. Og selvfølgelig er de mennesker, der har været med i evigheder, og som har uendelig langsigtet kapital, nok de bedste bud på det. Benchmark, Sequoia, de mennesker, der er varemærkerne, og som har langsigtet engageret kapital i deres fonde, de har ikke travlt med at komme ud. Og faktisk har de omdannet deres fonde fra bare private fonde til offentlige-private fonde, hvor de kan holde offentlige værdipapirer for evigt. Det er derfor, Sequoia ikke er en IRA. Men betyder det så meget? Generelt tror jeg ikke, det gør det. De fleste venturekapitalfonde finder selv ud af deres egen kapitalstruktur, og de lader grundlæggerne mødes, ikke? Når alt kommer til alt, er det sidste, man ønsker at gøre, at tvinge en virksomhed til at sælge for tidligt, mens den vokser. Så jeg ville ikke bekymre mig så meget. Og forresten, hos FJ er grunden til, at vores DPI’er er høje, at vi ejer 2-3 % af virksomhederne. Vi kan gå ud og få sekundære investeringer. Faktisk spørger mange venturefonde os, om vi har noget imod at sælge en del af vores position. Vi vil gerne have lidt mere ejerskab af resultaterne. Og så spørger stifterne os faktisk, om vi er villige til at sælge.

Fabrice Grinda:

[15:02] Men hvis du er en ledende venturekapitalist og har 20 % af virksomheden, og du sidder i bestyrelsen, kan du ikke lave et sekundært salg. For hvis du prøver at sælge, er det et negativt signal. Åh, hvad ved de om virksomheden, som vi ikke ved? Og så dræber det virksomheden. Så den tilgang fungerer ikke rigtig for ledende VC’er. De er nødt til at vente til børsnoteringen. Faktisk kan de ikke engang sælge efter børsnoteringen, fordi de ejer så stor en del af virksomheden. De solgte, og prisen ville kollapse. Så for ledende VC’er vil de være låst fast i lang tid. Det er kun folk som os, der har små andele, der kan sælge på vej op. Jeg tror ikke, at det ændrer så meget for en grundlægger, helt ærligt. Bare vælg den person, der støtter dig, og som har kapital til at følge dig. Den ene ting, som jeg tror betyder mere, er, om venturekapitalen kan blive ved med at støtte dig i seed, A, B, C osv. For vi er i en verden, hvor det uden for AI er blevet sværere at få fat i kapital. Og derfor vil man gerne være seed med dybe nok lommer til, at de kan klare den anden runde. Så jeg ville ikke bekymre mig om det i seed-stadiet, for seed-fondene er seed-fonde, de vil ikke gå ind i din A-runde, de har ikke nok kapital. Men når du kommer til A-fondene, er mange fonde crossover, og de vil lave A og B osv. Så tænk på en venstrebane. De tager A, B, C osv. Eller Andreessen eller Sequoia. Den eneste undtagelse er dedikerede A-fonde, som er fantastiske, som Benchmark. Selv om de ikke nødvendigvis har kapital til at lede din B, er det okay. Jeg ville stadig tage dem. De er fantastiske.

Fabian Tausch:

[16:23] I 2024 foretog du 100 førstegangsinvesteringer i virksomheder med FJ Labs. Og derfor kiggede du på tusindvis af dem, især markedspladser. Så hvilke tendenser identificerer og ser du i øjeblikket og holder øje med, når du evaluerer nye virksomheder? Hvad er de ting, der dukker op mere og mere lige nu, hvor du tænker, at 2025 måske er en chance og et godt hit på denne trend for markedspladser?

Fabrice Grinda:

[16:52] Jeg deler det op. Først og fremmest investerede vi i 1 % af de aftaler, vi så. Så for 100 investeringer så vi 10.000 aftaler eller tab. Men selvfølgelig er mange af dem uden for rækkevidde, du ved, vores udvikling osv. Så vi tog ikke, vi tager opkald af 300 opkald, tilbud vi får om ugen, vi tager opkald med 50. Og så investerer vi i tre. Så det er den slags 1 %. Så vi ringede kun til en femtedel af dem eller deromkring. Så måske 2.000. Nu vil jeg opdele tendenserne i to grupper. Den ene er megatrends, som vi ser som en generel kategori. Og så, hvorfor ikke ting, der er interessante, og som kan danne grundlag for en større trend? Så lad mig forklare forskellen mellem de to. Den store megatrend, som vi ser som kategori, er B2B-markedspladser, og digitaliseringen af B2B-forsyningskæder er ved at blive en massiv tendens. Så hvis du tænker på dit forbrugerliv, kan du bestille mad på DoorDash eller Uber Eats, og du får det tilbage på 15 minutter. Du kan bestille dagligvarer på Instacart. Du kan bestille på Amazon. Du får alt mellem en og to dage eller endda samme dag nogle gange.

Fabrice Grinda:

[18:07] Du kan booke en Airbnb. Du kan få en Uber på fem minutter. Du kan finde et hotel på Booking.com. I dit forbrugerliv er digitaliseringen sket på en meget massiv og meningsfuld måde, og software er allerede ved at æde verden.

Fabrice Grinda:

[18:25] Men i B2E-verdenen er det ikke sandt. Og det gælder hverken i store virksomheder eller i små og mellemstore virksomheder, ikke? Altså, og jeg vil give to eksempler hver for sig. Den store virksomhed, hvis du vil købe petrokemikalier, er der ikke noget katalog over, hvad der er tilgængeligt. Så jeg siger ikke engang Amazon, hvor du har et nu. Jeg siger en liste, bare en liste over, hvad der er tilgængeligt. Så er der ingen forbindelse til fabrikken for at forstå produktionskapacitet og forsinkelser. Der er ingen onlinebestilling. Der er ingen online betaling, der er ingen sporing, og der er ingen finansiering. Og det skal ske i alle brancher, alle vertikaler og alle kategorier. Lige nu har vi en penetration på under 5 % og normalt under 1 % på alle disse områder. Og når jeg tænker på disse typer af input, og jeg mener input i bred forstand, som bildele, byggeri, kemikalier, energi, men det kunne også være færdigvarer. Intet af det er blevet digitaliseret. Nummer to, hvis du tænker på livet for en lille SMB-ejer, som en lille mor-og-pop-butiksejer. Forestil dig, at du ejer en restaurant. Hvad kan folk, der ejer restauranter, lide at lave? De kan lide at lave mad. De kan lide at sludre med kunderne. Og alligevel, hvad er det for et job, de ender med at skulle udføre i dag? De skal lave en hjemmeside. De skal besvare kommentarer på Google og Yelp og TripAdvisor. De skal have et POS. De skal lave regnskab. De skal administrere deres lagerbeholdning.

Fabrice Grinda:

[19:42] De skal lave lønningslister. De skal forhandle Uber og DoorDash. Og så er SMB-digitalisering, alt det arbejde, som disse SMB-fyre ikke kan lide at gøre, også en megatrend. Og jeg vil give dig et par eksempler. I SMB investerede vi i Slice, som hjælper pizzeriaejere med at administrere hele deres backoffice. De har nu 20.000 pizzeriaer på platformen, over en milliard i salg, meget rentabelt. Vi har Freshia, som gør det samme for frisørsaloner. Sense, der gør det samme for vaskerier eller renserier. Vi har en, der gør det for kurbade og generelle yogastudier og så videre, kolde øjeblikke og så videre. Så dette verificerer vi. På inputsiden er vi i Nodi for petrokemikalier. I Tyskland er vi med i et firma, der hedder ShootFlix, som er en tresidet markedsplads for at få grus.

Fabrice Grinda:

[20:33] Vi er i Material Bank, jeg mener, i mange andre. Og de tre andre tendenser, vil jeg sige, inden for B2B er at flytte forsyningskæder ud af Kina. Jeg tror, at den generelle tendens er, at man flytter til Frankrig, især til Indien. Så hvis du f.eks. er direktør i H&M og vil købe tøj i Indien, så er det sådan, at der i Indien er tusindvis af små mom-and-pop-producenter. Og hvad ønsker disse små producenter at gøre? De vil bare gerne producere. De ved ikke, hvordan man laver en RFQ. De ved ikke, hvordan man fakturerer, laver prototyper osv. Så en markedsplads som Ziad vil gøre alt det for dem. Så vi har investeret i alle disse markedspladser for at hjælpe med at flytte forsyningskæderne ud af Kina, mest til Indien, men selvfølgelig også til Mexico, Vietnam, Filippinerne, Indonesien osv.

Fabrice Grinda:

[21:18] Nummer fire er, at der er en stor mængde arbejdsmarkedspladser. De opstår for at understøtte denne stigning i B2B. Så vi er med i WorkRise, som er en markedsplads for alle servicearbejdere. Vi er med i Job and Talent for Blue Collar-arbejdere i Europa. Vi er med i Trusted Health for sygeplejersker.

Fabrice Grinda:

[21:39] Og så sidst, men ikke mindst, faktisk to mere, Recommerce. Selvfølgelig er e-handel meget stort lige nu i forbrugerverdenen, og det er faktisk på vej ind i B2B-verdenen, både for at få lavere omkostninger og også af grønne grunde. Så vi er en investorvirksomhed, der hedder Ghost, som giver dig mulighed for at købe overskydende lagerbeholdning. Så du er en lille butik, og du kan købe tøj med 90 % rabat fra overskudslagre fra de større mærker, og så kan du sælge det. Og historisk set fandtes det ikke, fordi det var umuligt for disse butikker at købe en million enheder. Men nu kan man købe 10.000 ordrer og få det til at fungere. Det gør det muligt, men ikke mindst infrastrukturen, der understøtter alt dette, så betalingsinfrastruktur som stripe eller hurtig automatiseringsrobotrobotiseringsinfrastruktur som formic, der hjælper folk med at automatisere eller figurere, som er robotter på fabrikker, der erstatter menneskelig arbejdskraft, og de er i bmw i Tyskland, der erstatter 250.000 maskinarbejdere med en 90.000 års robot, der arbejder 20 timer om dagen, og så er der shippingfirmaer som Flexport, ShipBob, Shippo og endda grænseoverskridende virksomheder, som vi investerer i, som Portless. Så det er alle de store megatrends inden for B2B. Ud over disse tendenser inden for B2B,

Fabrice Grinda:

[22:50] Vi ser et par interessante virksomheder, som gør ting, der tyder på, at der vil ske mere. Så de store andre tendenser på markedet er, at handel på tværs af grænserne endelig bliver en realitet. Så tænk på Vinted. Grunden til, at Vinted fik så stor succes i så mange lande, var, at de faktisk… Dengang man havde rubrikannoncer som eBay, Klein & Zagen, havde Klein & Zagen kun annoncer i Tyskland. Og Le Boncoin har kun annoncer i Frankrig. Og du sender ikke på tværs af lande osv. Men Vinted oversætter grundlæggende opslagene, oversætter chats mellem brugerne som integreret forsendelse på tværs af grænserne og integrerer betalinger på tværs af grænserne, så de for første gang har skabt en ægte paneuropæisk markedsplads. De har skabt en markedsplads i Europa, der på en måde får Europa til at ligne USA. Og det er fuldt integreret, ét sprog, én valuta, ét alting, men det sker faktisk i virkeligheden. Det er absolut nemt at bruge. Jeg er vild med det. Ja, og de knuser det, ikke? Der er omkring 6 milliarder i GMB.

Fabrice Grinda:

[23:47] Jeg tror, de er enormt rentable i Storbritannien og Europa. Det er stort. Og det samme sker i andre kategorier. Så vi er investorer i en virksomhed, der hedder Ovoco, som er en litauisk markedsplads for bildele, der køber bildele i Østeuropa, f.eks. i Polen og Litauen osv. Og de sælger til steder som Frankrig. De er også helt vilde med det. Så grænseoverskridende handel er ved at blive en realitet, især i Europa. Europa begynder endelig at ligne USA. Den næste store trend er live-handel. I Kina, på Taobao, som er Kinas eBay, hvis man vil, kommer 25 % af salget fra live videostreaming. I USA er det kun sket i én kategori, nemlig samleobjekter. Der er et firma, der hedder WhatNot, som vi ikke er investorer i. De har lige fået en værdiansættelse på 5 milliarder dollars.

Fabrice Grinda:

[24:32] Men for samleobjekter gav det på en måde mening. Men nu sker det også i andre brancher. Så vi er investorer i et firma, der hedder Palm Street. Og det er dybest set prosumenter i små butikker, der sælger sjældne planter. Og de laver to streams om ugen, de sælger planter for omkring 10.000 dollars om måneden, og de kvinder, der køber dem, bruger omkring 1.800 dollars hvert halve år, og det er smukt, fordi folk fortæller historien om, hvor planten kommer fra, eller hvordan man passer på den osv. og det skaber en rig oplevelse, så live videoshopping kommer endelig til Vesten, og dette firma er helt fantastisk, så jeg kan forestille mig andre kategorier, nu hvor de selv udvider i andre kategorier, jernkrystaller og sjælden keramik osv. Og så ser vi oprettelsen af nye vertikaler. Vi er med i et fransk firma, der hedder Alpaga, og de skaber…

Fabrice Grinda:

[25:21] De er en B2B-markedsplads for restaurantudstyr. Og det interessante er, at det plejede at være sådan, at hvis man var en restaurant, så købte man nyt udstyr. Restauranten gik ofte konkurs. Og så skifter de køkken osv. De har det her udstyr. De kan ikke sælge det, fordi det er besværligt. Man kan ikke sende det. Og det er sværere at installere. Så det, de gjorde, var at opbygge et netværk af serviceudbydere, afsendere og installatører. Og nu fungerer markedspladsen. Og de har lagt det ud med forsyninger fra deres hoteller, hotelkøkkener som Marriott osv. Så ved at tilføje et servicelag i eksisterende kategorier kan man skabe en markedsplads helt fra bunden. Så vi ser det også i ting som, tror jeg, grønnere er en stor megatrend, hvor alle ønsker at gøre deres huse grønnere. Men historisk set, hvis du vil gøre dit hus grønt, går du til et sted som Thumbtack, du skal hyre, du får entreprenører, de giver dig et tilbud, og vi installerer en varmepumpe. Det er meget kompliceret. Du skal håndtere omkring 20 bud, og så bliver du typisk snydt, når investorer er et firma, der hedder tetra, og dybest set tager et par billeder af dit system, og de siger, at dette er udbyderen, dette er prisen, og de gør det for dig, og det samme har de tilføjet et servicelag til en markedsplads, hvor du installerer varmeeffektivitet eller energieffektivitet, og de knuser det, så jeg gætter på, at det er en anden stor tendens at tilføje tjenester for at gøre transaktioner, der var komplekse, enkle. Og jeg tror, jeg vil give dig et par trends mere. Nye forretningsmodeller dukker op. Vi er investorer i en virksomhed i Frankrig, der hedder La Bourse Olive, som er en markedsplads for bøger.

Fabrice Grinda:

[26:49] Og det unikke her er, at de tager 90 % af provisionen for salget af bogen. Og du tænker, hvorfor skulle nogen være villige til at give 90 % af provisionen væk? Og det er, fordi de i stedet for at arbejde på at maksimere prisen maksimerer effektiviteten. Hvis du er nybagt forælder, har du en masse bøger, og når dagen er omme, har du ikke plads til dem. Så du kan sælge dem en efter en på Amazon, men det er besværligt. Du skal scanne dem, sætte dem på listen, sælge dem og sende dem. Her lægger du stort set alle bøgerne i en kasse, du sender den til dem, og så er du færdig. Og du får 10 % kredit til at købe andre bøger. Og i løbet af et år blev de den førende sælger af brugte bøger i Frankrig med en omsætning på 90 %. Så fantastisk økonomi, fantastisk forretning, med fokus på bekvemmelighed. Så igen ser vi nye tendenser eller måder at angribe eksisterende kategorier på ved at tilføje nye tilgange og bekvemmelighed. AI er begyndt at komme, og jeg vil give dig to eksempler på AI, og så vil jeg stoppe der i tendenserne.

Fabrice Grinda:

[27:46] AI, alle bruger naturligvis AI til kundepleje, og alle bruger AI til at forbedre programmørernes produktivitet. På markedspladser, hvor vi ser mest brug af AI, er ved at omdefinere annonceringsprocessen, ikke? Så hvis du vil sælge på eBay, skal du tage en telefon. Du tager en masse billeder, du skriver en titel, du skriver en beskrivelse, du vælger en kategori, du indtaster en pris, og så venter du en uge eller to, og så bliver den solgt.

Fabrice Grinda:

[28:13] Den nye model er et firma, vi investerer i i USA, som hedder Hero Stuff. Du tager et par billeder og laver en video, hvor du beskriver produktet. Og med AI konverterer de din beskrivelse til den fulde liste. Og de vælger faktisk prisen, kategorien, titlen og beskrivelsen. De laver en 15 sekunders TikTok-video, som du kan bruge i dine sociale medier. Og de viser det på eBay, Facebook Marketplace osv. Det kaldes Hero Stuff, og vi ser eksisterende etablerede virksomheder bruge deres data til også at genopfinde annonceringsprocessen. Så vi er investorer på en markedsplads, der hedder Rebag for håndtasker. Og det, de har gjort, er at skabe en kunstig intelligens ved navn Claire, fordi de har alle data. Du tager et par billeder, og de fortæller dig, okay, denne taske er ægte. Er denne model fra i år i denne stand, vil den blive solgt til denne pris? Puf, du klikker, og så er den solgt. På et minut har du solgt din taske, fordi de køber den for dig til markedsprisen, hvilket er fantastisk. Og så ser vi nye tendenser inden for AI, der bruges til at forbedre markedspladsens effektivitet. Så ja, en masse fantastiske, spændende tendenser. Og ja, jeg forventer, at disse er begyndelsen, og at flere af dem vil vokse. Så live-handel vil komme til andre kategorier. Grænseoverskridende handel vil eksistere ud over de to eksempler, jeg gav. Nye forretningsmodeller, hvor man måske kan opnå en højere udnyttelsesgrad ved at tilføje tjenester og fokusere på bekvemmelighed, vil komme i forgrunden.

Fabrice Grinda:

[29:36] Og tilføjelse af tjenester vil åbne op for nye kategorier, hvor det historisk set var for smertefuldt at handle. Og det er altså de store tendenser ud over B2B-markedspladstrenden, som jeg beskrev som en megatrend. Og vi er på dag nul. Så det vil tage 10 år, før alle disse ting er slået igennem.

Fabian Tausch:

[29:52] Der sker mange ting på én gang. Så en ting, du var inde på, er, at alle også bruger AI til at forbedre programmeringen og det ene og det andet. Hvordan påvirker den øgede produktivitet, som AI leverer til virksomhedsopbygning her og forbedrer produktopbygning og alt andet, hvordan opbygger du forsvarsevne som markedsplads, når selve produktet leveres og den første MVP og alt er sat op, hvordan ændrer dynamikken i opbygningen af forsvarsevne sig på grund af AI?

Fabrice Grinda:

[30:31] I løbet af de sidste 25 år har der været en megatrend med faldende omkostninger til opbygning af virksomheder og faldende adgangsbarrierer. Da jeg byggede min første virksomhed, havde jeg brug for Oracle-databaser og Microsoft-webservere. Jeg havde brug for at bygge mit eget datacenter. Der var ikke noget AWS, men der var heller ikke noget Rackspace. Og så fik vi open source, MySQL … Og php, så fik vi så fik vi cloud computing, og du kunne bruge aws og og og nu med den nye ai-revolution får du ingen kode lav kode og eller ai-assisteret kode, hvor omkostningerne ved at starte en virksomhed er billigere og lavere, end de nogensinde har været, når det er sagt, har opbygningen af den teknologiske platform aldrig været den ufrugtbare indgang til markedspladser selve produktet er let at kopiere, du kan og faktisk starter de fleste af vores markedspladser ofte starte på shopify forbrugeren på forbrugeren hvis du er en forbrugervendt markedsplads købssiden af markedspladsen kan du lige så godt bruge shopify de har alle værktøjerne det er billigt det er nemt de du kan indlejre som alt hvad du har brug for fra som sporing attribution test som alt er slags der det er lydhørt du kan få en mobilapp temmelig let, så det har altid været en slags vare det er

Fabian Tausch:

[31:44] Sjovt, det har jeg aldrig tænkt på, men det giver mening.

Fabrice Grinda:

[31:46] Ja, så når du lancerer en markedsplads, er der ingen voldgrav, produktet er voldgraven er faktisk likviditet, det er din udførelse, det er at få købere og sælgere, det er at have høje nps, det er at matche dem effektivt, det er at skabe svinghjulet, hvor flere købere bringer til flere sælgere, og flere sælgere bringer flere købere, det er det brand, du har bygget, der er voldgraven, det er den faktiske udførelse, selve produktet er ikke en voldgrav på nogen måde, form eller form, fordi det kan replikeres. Og det er ved at blive sandt i alle brancher, hvor ethvert produkt kan kopieres. Det er din udførelse, der er det vigtigste. Det er derfor, ideer har en vis værdi, men ikke så meget værdi. Det er virkelig udførelsen, der har al værdien.

Fabian Tausch:

[32:25] Så hvordan ville du sige, hvad der er nødvendigt for – og jeg tror, du allerede har berørt mange af emnerne, men jeg ville elske at bringe dem sammen igen – at opbygge det brand, der bliver nummer et, at opbygge udbuds- og efterspørgselssiden og virkelig blive den førende markedsplads i den branche, jeg er i?

Fabrice Grinda:

[32:45] Du er nødt til at glæde dine kunder. Så jeg ville starte helt fra begyndelsen med typisk at gå til udbuddet. Og jeg ville tage de allerbedste, og grunden til, at man går til leverandørerne, er, at de er økonomisk motiverede for at være på platformen. Så du går til den allerbedste leverandør og fortæller dem, at vi er ved at lancere en ny markedsplads. Vi har ikke mange kunder endnu, men det er gratis at være med. Ville I være interesserede i at være med? Alle vil sige ja. Så den store fejl, man kan begå, er faktisk at gå efter et for stort udbud. Du skal faktisk kun tage et meget begrænset udbud. Så tester du en masse markedsføringskanaler. Det kan være et salgsteam, det kan være Google, det kan være Tech Talk, det er ligegyldigt. Og du giver dem efterspørgsel, og du matcher dem.

Fabrice Grinda:

[33:21] Og du vil grundlæggende, afhængigt af kategorien, hvis du er en markedsplads for brugte varer, vil du have, at sandsynligheden for, at varen sælges, skal være mindst 25 %. Hvis du er en markedsplads for tjenesteydelser, vil du gerne repræsentere mindst 25 % af indtægterne fra udbuddet. Men du vil gerne gøre dem glade. Og NPS skal være meget høj på både udbuds- og efterspørgselssiden, som regel ved at have et ledelses- og servicelag, der sørger for, at de begge er meget tilfredse. Når du har gjort det, og de er glade, og din NPS er høj, og sælgerne og køberne er glade, tilføjer du et par sælgere mere, og så tilføjer du et par købere mere, og du fortsætter med at skalere parallelt. Og normalt sætter det gang i svinghjulet, hvor du pludselig får netværkseffekter, hvor stadig flere købere kommer til, hvor sælgere kommer til, hvor sælgere kommer til, hvor flere købere kommer til. Og du ved, at du har et svinghjul, når din CAC begynder at falde. Mange af disse såkaldte markedspladser er ikke markedspladser, for det, der sker, er, at de bruger en masse penge på at købe sælgere og købere. Jo mere de skalerer, jo mere stiger deres CAC. Det betyder, at de ikke har nogen netværkseffekter. Det betyder, at der er noget fundamentalt, der ikke fungerer. Og jeg vil gerne have, at fagforeningsøkonomien er rigtig god. Men den generelle idé om, at man skal glæde sine første kunder og blive ved med at bygge til dem og sørge for, at de er tilfredse, gælder ikke kun for markedspladser, men helt ærligt for alle nystartede virksomheder. Måden, du starter på markedspladser, kan variere afhængigt af den markedsplads, du befinder dig på. Måske skal du være i et postnummer, men måske er du et nationalt produkt, ikke? Så hvordan du gør det

Fabrice Grinda:

[34:45] Den første er selvfølgelig, at hvis du er i en servicekategori, er du sandsynligvis nødt til at være hyperlokal. Hvis du sælger brugte varer, er det måske ikke nødvendigt, især hvis de kan sendes. Så det kommer virkelig an på det. Men fokus er at glæde dine kunder og sørge for, at de ser deres sælgere, at de ser efterspørgslen. Og hvis de er købere, at de ser nok af det, de vil have, til at de kan handle her.

Fabian Tausch:

[35:06] Når jeg starter en markedsplads i dag, hvad er så sandsynligvis den første forhindring, jeg vil støde på?

Fabrice Grinda:

[35:14] Uanset om det er i dag eller for 20 år siden, er den første forhindring, man støder på, problemet med hønen og ægget: Jeg har denne vidunderlige hjemmeside, en vidunderlig brugeroplevelse, men jeg har ingenting. Jeg har ingen købere, og jeg har ingen sælgere. Hvilken en skal jeg starte med? Og min anbefaling er i 99 % af tilfældene at starte med sælgerne, fordi de er økonomisk motiverede for at være på platformen. Hvis de er der, vil de tjene penge. Men jeg ville, som jeg sagde, gå til de allerbedste, som vil være engagerede, som er glade for at teste det, som vil svare på forespørgsler fra købere og gøre dem glade. Fair.

Fabian Tausch:

[35:48] Med hensyn til tiden synes jeg, at det er en meget skarp, meget tæt udkigsepisode med mange tendenser, som du kan dykke dybere ned i, når du tænker på dem og tænker, at det giver mening. Jeg kan plukke nogle ideer herfra og bruge dem til min egen markedsforretning og bygge videre på det, fordi jeg kan se på forskellige brancher. Så jeg ved, at du også lavede en episode om markedspladstendenser på din egen podcast, og jeg vil linke den nedenfor, så hvis nogen ikke kan få nok af dig, så linker jeg til din linkedin og selvfølgelig fj labs og din podcast, der er mange flere episoder, som du bør lytte til, for eksempel den om outsourcing, som jeg virkelig nød, så fabrice, det har været sådan en fornøjelse, tak fordi du delte alle dine indsigter og tanker om markedspladser i 2025, og jeg ser frem til snart at indhente det forsømte.

Fabrice Grinda:

[36:37] Tak, fordi jeg måtte komme.

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