解碼未來:人工智慧、風險市場和市場

我與 AngeList India 的首席執行官 Dhruv Sharma 在 Offline 進行了一次引人入勝的爐邊談話。Offline 是南亞領先企業家的私人會員社區。與 Utsav 和他的非凡獨角獸創始人社區聊天真是太棒了。印度的科技未來非常光明!

Here is Utsav’s cheat-sheet of golden nuggets that landed hardest with the Offline crew:

🔑 4-point “one-hour” deal filter

1️⃣ 🔥 Team = eloquent and execution-obsessed
2️⃣ 💸 Business = big TAM + pay-back ≤ 6 months
3️⃣ 📄 Terms = fair vs traction, not frothy
4️⃣ 🎯 Thesis fit = lines up with the future you actually want to exist
Miss even one box? → pass. Discipline > FOMO.

🤖 AI ≠ free pass

75 % of Q1 US VC dollars went to AI, yet moats are rare.
“Copilots for X” is a week of code & a crowded party; differentiated data is where the edge lives.
Valuations at 💯× ARR? Careful… the bill for 2021 déjà-vu is coming.

📈 Marketplaces 2.0

Consumer side is largely done; the next trillion-dollar wave is B2B inputs, cross-border & re-commerce.
AI superpowers: auto-translate listings, auto-price, one UX for chat and search.
Answer-engine optimization (AEO) is the new SEO.

💰 Angel math

< 50 bets → odds stacked against you. 50 + → probability tilts.
Stay in your zone of genius, keep cheques small, and sell 50 % of winners on the way up to lock real DPI.

🛠️ Productivity hack-stack

Ruthless outsourcing: VAs for inbox, bills, slides; butlers for offline ops; five rotating nannies on a shared Google Sheet.
Saves cycles for reading 100 books a year, kitesurfing, ✈️ and hosting Jeffersonian salons.

🌏 Macro take

De-risking from China = India’s manufacturing moment. Massive whitespace for SME tooling & export-ready marketplaces.

💡 Biggest reminder: Ambition scales fastest when curiosity, discipline & joy ride together.

Huge thanks to every Offline member who poked, prodded and pushed the convo further.

Transcript

Dhruv Sharma: Good evening everyone. Thank you for joining us Fabrice. It’s great to have you with us. Thank you for making the time. What do you need to know about Fabrice? Most of us know him as the founder of OLX and now FJ Labs. Fabrice is from Nice, France, lives in New York, loves the life of exploration and adventure, and he is built not one, but three extremely successful companies that we don’t always know about.

And the other two being Zingy and Aucland. And just very delighted to have you with us, Fabrice.

Fabrice Grinda: Thank you for having me.

Dhruv Sharma: Before we get into the substance of this conversation, I wanted to ask you about these Jeffersonian dinners you’ve been having all these years.

What, in your mind, Fabrice is a good recipe? Figuratively speaking for these dinners. And what has it meant to you over time?

Fabrice Grinda: So, the reason I have them, is think back to when you were in college. You’re studying everything and anything, and you’re having conversations on the meaning of life and you’re being extraordinarily thoughtful.

This world, this simulation matrix, whatever you wanna call it, reward, specialization. And in fact, specialization is the reason we have the quality of life we have. But we as humans should not purely be defined by the job we do on a daily basis. And actually, I value being able to be polymath and think through a whole bunch of different topics.

And as a result, what I’d like to do is bring together about 10 people. like eight to 10 around a dinner table. The format of a Jeffersonian dinner is that there’s only one conversation at a time. You don’t have side conversations The sum total of the minds at the table or on the issue.

And of course, no one is expected to speak for more than 30 seconds or a minute at a time. I give the topics ahead of time and the topics are very far and varied. It could be like how to reinvent democracy for the 21st century, life in a post singularity world religion in 2100. The ethics and morality of torture, or sometimes the most open-minded ones are very interesting.

It’s like what has been on your mind or something you’ve learned recently that you could share with everyone. This way everyone presents for three, four minutes and then we all discuss it for five, 10 minutes. It’s an amazing way to elevate the debate

The point is to get to the truth. I find that we live in a world where intellectualism is not valued enough. it’s wonderful to be thoughtful about a variety of topics with extraordinary people some of the best friendships and frankly, fascinating conversations upcoming these.

I organize one about every three weeks, changing the guest list. I’m, extraordinarily strict. Your phone cannot ring or you’re not invited again. You cannot be one minute later you’re not invited again. Like I really, and, and by having these rules, people take it seriously.

They come prepared, they read the questions, they know what they’re gonna talk about. and I changed the guest list with like intellectuals at people from academia, policy makers, entrepreneurs, and people from a wide walk of life. it’s super fun. I wrote a blog post on, Dialoguing dinners on my blog.

I’ll put the link in the chat and you could read, sample questions, organization, the email I sent to people about how to get ready,

Dhruv Sharma: That’s amazing. Fabrice, when was the last time you hosted one

Fabrice Grinda: I did one through weeks ago and I’m going to one tomorrow night.

Dhruv Sharma: Oh, that’s great. So you’re not the only host that means you others who host these dinners as well? Similar format.

Fabrice Grinda: people from my circle are hosting the ones tomorrow night. There’s an organization in the US called Dialogue, organized by Peter Thiel and Orin Hoffman, which brings together several hundred really smart people to talk about, problems.

The organization has one event per year for extraordinary people. typically, in California, in April or May. during the year, I use the organization to curate and find people. So this way I outsource, which is something I like to do in life, outsource almost everything I can to focus on things that are in the most fascinating.

They help me find the guest list and think through questions.

Dhruv Sharma: That’s amazing. you also have this thing, Fabrice, that you launched, about a year ago. It’s called Fabrice AI, and it’s a way for the world at large to, in a sense gain a window in your thinking. For those of us who may not know about that, what can you tell us?

Fabrice Grinda: In venture writ large right now, it’s really a tale of two cities. Venture at large has been down like 70%, and yet there’s been a massive recovery, at least in the US in adventure investing because of AI. In Q1 25, 70 3% of all investors in AI. And by the way, a year ago I thought already AI was in a frothy bubble and the bubble has only inflated more since.

And we’ll talk more about that later. But because I started being pitched infinite AI deals, I wanted to really understand what was easy, what was hard. I’m like, you know what? Why don’t I code my own AI to understand, where we are? and what are the complexities? I started by using GPT 3.5 or 3.0 didn’t work actually two years ago.

Didn’t work particularly well. So, I started using Langchain and Pinecone then I started using an open source library to do, voice of text. Nothing worked particularly well, I have to admit. And the complexity was way greater than I thought in the sense that the source files for all the knowledge and data structure, which was basically everything I’d ever written, every podcast I’d been on, every YouTube video I uploaded, et cetera.

The transcription of all of these, the separation of the speakers. So even the data formatting preparation was extraordinarily complex. And then the data retrieval was complicated. I had to use MongoDB ’cause I didn’t, it didn’t work in just my SQL. I put all this work literally a thousand hours of work, and I thought originally it was gonna be like 40.

And eventually GPT released 4.0, and I ripped out my tire backend, connected 4.0 replaced my open source library for voice attacks, put Whisper and everything started working. The point of that is when people started pitching me things like Co-Pilot for X, Y, Z, I realized, okay, when you’re pitching me, I can code in a week.

That is not a defensible, viable idea with a moat. And, and most of these AI companies, I was being pitched that insane valuations. Honestly, were not that differentiated, didn’t have a mote. And so it was extremely useful. It also showed me the risk of both open AI expanding its reach and little by little taking share from other AI companies.

As time went by, I started ripping out all my backend. right now I temporarily, turned off this AI. It is still running, but now I’m using a third party company called Delphi because they were formatting better and their voice interface. So the OpenAI doesn’t have a great voice interface.

So there’s a company called 11 Labs, that could replicate your lab. But I needed a code, the API, to connect to them and train it. I already have all the data sets. I’ll upload to Delphi, use them for now, but I’m currently coding the next version of Fabrice AI, which is combination of my avatar you can have a call with and, pitch me. So I’m currently transcribing all of the calls I’m having with founders, including the deck. the call and my debrief and recommendation, my hope is that ultimately founders can get intelligent feedback. It’s not actually can it surface of deals, it’s just, right now we get 300 deals inbound a week.

We, FJ Labs talked to 30 to 50 of ’em and I Fabrice talked to like five of them. And so there’s. 270 founders a week that don’t speak to anyone at FJ Labs and 295 that don’t speak to me. so I’m like, can I create an AI good enough that as a service to humanity, if you’re a founder, you’re gonna get intelligent feedback.

Now your deck, your presentation’s, not scripts. The total addressable market size is not, gr is too low. The unit economics don’t make sense. there’s a lot of competition. can I get there? I don’t know. I only have 150 transcripts right now. I think I need at least 500 to get there.

But I’m playing with it. And maybe it’ll even surface fee deals. I probably a year away from having something that I’m satisfied with. it’s fun, it’s an intellectual exercise And it’s a public service to founders Fabrice AI, already works pretty well.

You can’t pitch it, but if you wanna have a conversation on anything I’ve ever written about. you can have a meaningful conversation.

It works really well for that. It just, you can’t pitch it ideas yet and have intelligent feedback.

Dhruv Sharma: I do something that I asked it, which I’m gonna maybe quote later just to check if that tallies up with your current thinking in the topic. But we’ll get to that. I think this is a great moment.

I mean, you said 300 deals a week. You said a week, right?

Fabrice Grinda: Yes.

Dhruv Sharma: That’s a lot. And I believe you’ve had this four step investing framework that you’ve stayed true to all of these years. Can you tell us about that?

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah, so the 300 deals inbound. most VCs are structured very differently from us, right?

Most VCs have these teams of analysts and these poor analysts are basically cold calling and scoring LinkedIn and going to tech conferences to try to find deals. We’re in a very privileged position, right? I never intended to be VC. I describe myself as an accidental VC. It just so happened that when I started my very first company back in 1998, which is an eBay of Europe, I was a very visible consumer facing internet, CEO.

So I was being approached by other founders and at that time what it meant to be a tech founder was not very clear. even the basic stuff like what tech stack to use, was not obvious. There was no open source.

it cost millions to turn the lights on. I had to build my own data center So I thought long and hard, should I be an angel investor in parallel to being a tech CEO, because it is a distraction from your core mandate. And so I decided, If I can articulate lessons learned to others, it makes me a better founder.

I’m running this horizontal multi-category site as I did for OLX. If I can meet vertical founders and keep my fingers on the pulse of the market, it makes me a better founder. So I took key to be an angel as long as I don’t waste too much time. back in 98, I created these four selection criteria to decide in one hour if I would invest in a startup or not.

So I’d meet the founder and evaluate four things. One, do I like the team? Now, of course, every VC in the world will tell you I only invest in extraordinary founders. The thing is, extraordinary founder cannot be like porn. It can’t be, I know it when I see it. And so we’ve actually defined what that means to me, that someone who’s extremely eloquent, who has a way with words, who can weave a super compelling story and someone who’s very eloquent and salesy can raise money at a higher valuation, can attract a better team, can do better BD deals, can get more PR, but that’s a necessary but insufficient condition.

You need someone who also knows how to execute. and the way I tease that in a one hour call, they know how to execute, is number two. Do I like the business? And so what is a total addressable market size? What are the unit economics? We mostly are seed investors, so post-launch, post product, early revenue.

Even when we do invest pre-launch, we expect people to thought through it. Have they done landing page analysis. Based on that, what are the density keywords in Google? What is the average CPC What is the conversion rate to people signing up? What do you think the customer acquisition cost is based on the average conversion rate from visit a purchase in the category?

What is the average order value in the industry? They better be in line with the average order value in the industry, not expect to be 10 x above it. What’s the margin structure? Do they really understand their cost structure? Do they recoup their fully loaded costs on a contribution margin two basis after six months?

And do they three x it an 18 month? And if not, will the unit economics improve with scale without needing all the stars of the multiverse line? Number three, the deal trips. Nothing’s cheap in tech, but is it fair? Is it fair in light of, the traction, the opportunity, the team, et cetera. And number four, is it in line with their thesis of where the world is going?

And I have a clear perspective on the future of food, the future of climate, the future of mobility, the future of real estate. And I want them something that is both useful to the world and meaningful in line with where I think the world’s going. I will invest if all four criteria are simultaneously met.

it’s not three out of four, it’s literally four out of four. An amazing team is not enough because if an amazing team meets a bad business model typically it’s the reputation of the business that wins over the team. some founders or VCs will say, the team will figure it out.

The thing is that to me leads to a too high failure rate. So far we’ve invested. In 1200 companies, we’ve had 355 exits. We’ve actually made money on 45% of our exits, which for a pre-seed seed investor is an extraordinary hit rate. because in 95% of startups after five years, that’s that have raises seed fail.

So we’re doing very, very well because we’re disciplined evaluation because we’re disciplined unit economics. the reason we get all the deal flow is because I have a brand. People know me as the asset like, network effect marketplace investor. And as a result it’s a very privileged position where this deals just come in.

So we don’t actually do any outbound. The deals come in, the other VCs share deals with us, the founders, that we’ve backed so far. So 1200 companies is like 2000 founders. They send us to their friends, they come back to the next company, they send us to their employees, and then of course cold inbound.

And we get over 150 cold inbound deals for a week.

[00:13:24] Dhruv Sharma: That’s very impressive. Fabrice, so you started this journey of angel investing and it worked out really well for you. In fact, you say it made you a better founder for any of the founders here attending who have that question in their mind, should they start the angel investing journey? and if they already have, should they scale it?

What would you say to them? And based just not on your experience, but maybe also based on the experience of your friends, which might have been different from yours?

Fabrice Grinda: I think it depends on you and who you are, what you want, what your advantage is, Like I am, intellectually curious polymath, right?

The reason I like angel investing is there’s infinite problems in the world and boundaries basically see these problems. And by the way, something like climate change or inequality of opportunity is not one problem. It’s a thousand sub problems. the way I see founders, they see problems and they wanna go solve them.

And I found it fascinating to be able to meet these founders that are brilliant people who want to solve these problems, to hear the stories, and then share best practices with ’em. And the number of founders who’ve told them the interactions they’ve had with me have been meaningful, I made me realize that I can get fundamental leverage through doing it.

That said, in order to not be distracted, I only did dealt with inbound deal flow, and I only focus on marketplaces because I knew that’s what I knew innately, and I had this mechanism by which I would invest it in one hour meeting. So should you do it well? Do you have free time? Do you have free cash?

Do you like it? Is it interesting to you? And by the way, you’re only gonna make money if you have a diversified portfolio. Meaning on average, if you invest in less than 50 startups, you’re gonna lose money. If you invest in more than 50, you’re gonna make money. The more companies you invest in, the better you end up doing.

And so you really want a diversified portfolio. So should you scale it, not necessarily. So reflection of your personality, if you like doing it, if you have an amazing deal flow and if you have free cash and time, why not I didn’t intend, to become a venture capitalist post selling, OLXI. I created a family office, which was investing companies, creating companies, but I tried a whole bunch of other things.

I try to buy Craigslist, I try to buy eBay classifieds. I try to convince the Castros to let me run a free trade zone in Cuba. Actually a special administrative zone, copying what, Deng Xiaoping had done in Guang Dong. I thought of becoming a public intellectual. It’s just these things required someone else to you to say yes.

And I threw this spaghetti of the wall, this spaghetti didn’t stick. And writing people checks actually kind of worked. then all of a sudden I started getting approached by third parties saying, I wanna expose you to what you do, that’s why I became a VC. But I’m a non-traditional VC because I’m a VC who behaves like an angel.

Every year. I invest in 150 deals. I write small checks. I don’t lead, I don’t price, I don’t take board seats. I try to be this value added friendly guy. Only do it if you think it’s fun and interesting and it’s a reflection of your personality and you have a process and deal flow.

If you don’t have deal flow, getting it is hard, because you guys are visible and successful, you do have deal flow. but it’s not obvious that you should do it. Many of my friends would rather use the time they have post exit, to do something else.

And that’s totally fine. and that could be anything, right? Like from investing more time in family and friends and relationships, to hosting intellectual salons, to entering politics, to doing different forms of philanthropy. Now, my take of philanthropy is a bit contrarian because I actually find that what I do through tech is a form of philanthropy,

As I said earlier, it’s a boundaries see problems and they try to solve ’em. So then I try to solve problems that I think are meaningful. And the reason I’d like the for-profit mechanism is because it creates something that’s scalable and repeatable and doesn’t need to go fundraising every year.

Dhruv Sharma: Fabrice, before I ask you the next question, this is for everyone in the audience. If you have something you’d like to ask Fabrice right away, let’s do it. Maybe just leave your question, or just tease your question out in the chat window, and I’m more than happy to invite you to come, ask you a question.

Fabrice before we go ahead, reaching out of the Castro family to set up, a trade zone. We kind of let you proceed before you tell us a little more about that.

Fabrice Grinda: So, by formation, my background, I’m an economist. I studied economics at Princeton and one of the things I love, was market design, which is why I was well suited for creating marketplaces, in terms of like measuring elasticity of supply and demand, figuring out what the correct, key creator business model was, et cetera.

But studied economic performing in China, and I was a huge fan of Deng Xiaoping, who basically single-handedly took a billion people outta poverty. And I went to live in China in 1994. I studied Mandarin at Beijing Normal University.as I was thinking through after our lack of giving back and thinking through what could I do to make the world a better place, I’m like, you know, these free trade zones and more importantly, special ac administrative zones have that profound impact in changing the livelihood of people around the world.

You see what Dubai has become, despite not having the same natural resources than the other, a Arab states. I love the Caribbean. I like splitting my time between, the US and New York, which is a haven of an intellectual, social artistic endeavors with a place where I can be more reflective and read, write kite, surf, do yoga, meditate.

now I’m working there, I play tennis, I play paddle, and, and that’s my work life outs. I started looking at the time, so we’re talking 2013 at Cuba. Cuba is, foreign direct investment was about a hundred million a year. The average salary is about $20 a month. And it’s essentially a failed state.

They have a highly qualified, labor force with super low GDP, nothing working, and they have large swath of the country that, are underutilized and completely empty. So I’m like, look, give me, a couple percentage points of the country to build in my special economic zone where I’m essentially 70 miles from Florida.

So creating a small agricultural and manufacturing hub, obviously using capitalism where you can export to the US makes infinite sense. they originally said yes, the reason they ultimately said no is I didn’t just want a free trade zone. It needed to have a different constitution, it needed to have a different currency.

it needed to be its own little city state because I needed respect for property rights and there couldn’t be arbitrary confiscation of all these assets. the currency didn’t need to be the dollar. It could be the yen, the Euro. it needed to be convertible.

It couldn’t be the Cuban peso. and they thought that was a step too far. ultimately, I did think, it probably is a good thing it didn’t happen because the issue is, imagine it had been very successful. they could have just confiscated it, right? they have a military, so I’m not sure I could have kept it, even if it worked extremely well, difference between the state itself and, doing it like Deng Xiaoping did, and being a third party foreigner, trying to implement it.

But it was a great idea. I think it would’ve worked because, bringing incentives, structures and systems there, and I had actually a couple hundred million, I think I had 900 million lined up, which tripled the FDI per year, of the country to go and build this. So, didn’t happen, but it’s okay.

Dhruv Sharma: A remarkable story to tell. are there other economic reformers you look up to, Fabrice or if any of us are interested that you would encourage us to read more about their work?

Fabrice Grinda: Well, my role models and heroes through history, probably, Octavian or Augustus because he single-handedly created the Roman Empire and he inherited from his uncle Julie Caesar at 17.

 It was not given that he was gonna be the winner with Mark Anthony and the other pretenders to throne, even Castus breach was gonna pretended. And he put an end to the Civil War, created the Pax Romana created a, basically a period of relative peace and stability that lasted for a hundred years and a quality of life that was unheard of at the time.

The other one is Alexander Hamilton. The debates between Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton in terms of what the US should become. we are all collectively glad that Alexander Hamilton won that because Jefferson had more of a Russo-Esque agrarian society. We don’t repay the debt, we don’t have a modern financial system, et cetera.

Where we ended it was extraordinary. But then of course, some economists have, played a fundamental role in creating the world we knew today, like, Keynes, right? and I don’t mean Canadian thinking, I actually think is actual impact of creating the IMF, creating the bread and wood systems, to help rebuild post-World War II.

Was profoundly, impactful in creating the post-World order that we had that led to peace, stability, and prosperity for 70 years post-war. which is sadly, coming to end right now. And even the thoughts of like Freedman and others, now of late, right?

It’s hard to have people that you look up to, in democracies by design. It’s very hard to make changes. And, and so it’s not a, the conflicts in democracies, it’s not a bug, it’s a feature of democracy. The founding fathers, and thus through most democracies, want check and balances between the Senate, to the judiciary and the legislative and the executive.

And that’s why almost nothing gets done. But that’s okay because the fundamental systems are pretty good and people, are worried about the conflicts they see in today’s democracies. But the reality is they’re not worse than they were before.

People forget, we had a full civil war in the US in the 19th century. There were like race riots in the 1960s. There were anti-war protests that were violent in the 1970s. what do you have today? Like, is nothing relative to that. And I think ultimately. Even though it ebbs and flows the system, does lead to the right outcomes, even though as Churchill said, the US could be counted on making the right decision.

After all, other options have been exhausted; which of course is the second most, popular quote of Churchill after that democracy is the word of also, except for all others. So, yeah. Are there great leaders, in time that I also, admire, et cetera? You know, Allah Churchill, absolutely. But, but in terms of economics, no.

I think, Deng is probably the one that has had the most impact, but what’s interesting, of course, is now India, is growing extremely rapidly and is helping get hundreds of millions people out of poverty as well. So it’s, accelerated. The leaders of Singapore have been extraordinary, so that’s probably another thing. The issue with these dictatorships though, is enlightened dictatorships are only as good as your dictator. sometimes you have enlightened dictators, but then you have incompetent, fools like Mao or Xi Jinping, that set these countries back dramatically,

Like Zimbabwe used to be the shining star of Africa, and then Mugabe destroyed it, these, aspiring autocrats, like Erdogan in Turkey, he’s betraying the legacy of Atatürk.

Dhruv Sharma: Fabrice, when OLX first enter India, which year was it?

Fabrice Grinda: Very early in our journey. I had been friends with, Suvir, and Avi from Bazi, who of course had had then sold to eBay, became eBay India, and they, and s Suvir had created Nexus, a venture capital firm.

And, OLX, originally I would’ve preferred it to work in the West, but because they were incumbents, marketplaces with liquidity didn’t really take off. And so we opened in a bunch of countries, and it really took off in places like Portugal and Brazil,

Suvir is like, look, I wanna fund you, but you have to enter India. I think the market is amazing here. in fact, I’ll help you, find your country manager. that was the first employee, at eBay, India, which is Amar, who’s on this call.

I don’t actually remember the year, but Amar maybe does,

Amar Jt: It was 2008. I joined in the end, but I think OLX was already live So it must have been 2007. The site must have been live 2007. we cleaned up a few things after that, but, the real work started 2000, I mean, when we started scaling up for 2011 when we did our first big campaign, but during that time we were doing interesting, things about consolidating and stuff like that.

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah. And, and load the groundwork. But yeah, we basically launch very early, but like, yeah, the real effort and cleaning up the side, making sure we had focus, having all the languages, and making sure we’re in all the different languages. And, started, when Amar joined in 2008 the company was created in 2006, and we went live probably in early 2007, so very early in the journey of OLX.

Dhruv Sharma: Yeah. So, 2008 Fabrice, 17 years. And, clearly there’s been an economic transformation in those 17 years. Now we’ve witnessed it firsthand, you maybe have a different perspective because you’ve always had one leg in and one leg out. So what does this look like to you?

Fabrice Grinda: I’d say the main transformation. what led to the real explosion in India? I would say was 3G, right? Like once smartphones started, coming of age, and you started having these super cheap Android phones with 3G, you started having the entire population having access to, I mean, imagine today your poor farmer In India, you have the sum total of humanities knowledge in your pocket.

You have free global video communications, and you have a super smart advisor in the form of GPT in your pocket. So basically you have more access to information and more access to communications that the president of the United States did 25 years ago. And that’s as a lower class farmer in Africa or India.

It’s mind-boggling. people take for granted the revolution we’ve had, but it is so profoundly transformational and actually egalitarian, right? It gives, people access to these tools in a way that they weren’t before. And, and we lived it because we were early, because the company I built before OLX was a mobile content company.

We were early in the journey and discovering that we needed to go mobile. and so Ol X from the beginning, we had a mobile website. We were very early with apps. So we lived the Indian, internet revolution through mobile from the very get go. and, and, and what we did right, was realizing if you wanna reach people that are offline, the best way to do, it’s through TV.

And that’s why in 2011, we started doing these TV ads especially around cricket, which helped bring a lot of people online and of course helped consolidate OLX the leading classified buying sell site.

Dhruv Sharma: There’s a couple of questions in the chat window. Why don’t you ask a question, please.

Utsav Somani: Yeah. Building on that Cuba thing, what’s the one crazy thing that you’ve attempted in the last decade that’s not worked out, but you wish it did?

Fabrice Grinda: in 2006, when I left, my prior company Zingy, I went to see Craig, of Craigslist and I’m like, Hey, you are creating, you have already have network effects. You’re doing an amazing job.

you have a 1995 interface, and more importantly, you’re not moderating any of the content on your site. Let me run it for free. Not ’cause I wanna make money just because I wanna make the world a better place. I wanna provide a public service to humanity. And we could always talk later if you’re happy about some form of conversation.

Of course, even though I was credible, ’cause I’d sold my last company had grown it at 200 million revenues profitable. he didn’t take me seriously. So, then I went back in 2013, when I left OLX, I went to Craig and I’m like, Hey. Look, I build a site bigger than Craigslist, 300 million units, 10,000 employees, 30 countries.

It’s amazing. And we’ve solved all the problems you have. Let me do this again for free. and he said no. I think he and the CEO were like so high on drugs. they were fading out of consciousness. I don’t think they even remember we met. They didn’t remember we’d met before. Every time I met them, they forgot we’d met before. It’s like mindboggling. They just didn’t care. I tried so many times over the years to take it over. I tried to buy it. They said, no, I tried to run it. They said no, et cetera. So that one, because I said earlier, these things, they require someone else to say yes.

I try to buy eBay classified twice. So, eBay owned very big classified sites in, Western Europe, Canada, and Australia, especially in Germany. I tried to buy it in 2015. I had, lined up private equity. It was like a six or $7 billion deal. They said yes, signed an LOI. But then they divested PayPal, when they divested PayPal, they had enough money that they didn’t feel they needed to anymore.

So they changed their minds. a year worth of work for nothing. I tried again in 2019 and they ultimately sold, I thought I’d won, but they sold it to my biggest competitor at OLX, which was at Adevinta. So sadly I didn’t win buying eBay cost. in hindsight, I probably would’ve hated it because eBay is a ginormous company with like, they had like, o well actually is kind of built for me by me and it’s kind of, I would like to believe it. Enlightened dictatorship with centralized, everything. each country had local product and local et cetera. Like we had one tax stack and I could say jump and, you know, people would say, ah, hi.

eBay was like different silos, different techs in every country, overlapping fighting fiefdoms. It would not have been easy to execute on. So, in hindsight, probably, something good, but I try to build, in the Caribbean and to Dominican Republic, a massive kind of off-grid commune, not a commune in the communist sense of the word. More of a place where tech founders could come and build tech startups and innovate, where spiritual leaders can host events where, where, where artists could come and create. and, and the idea was to foster. Something not too dissimilar to my Jeffersonian dinners by bringing smart people around to go and create things.

And I bought several hundred acres of land. There was a mile of beach front. the problem is, the Dominican Republic was more of a banana republic than I expected it to be. that was my second attempt. The first attempt with a massive piece of land in Belize. definitely a banana republic and failed.

And so I’m like, oh, Dominican Republic, it’ll be fine. Democracy, et cetera. But like everyone wanted bribes from the local mafia to the mayor to the vice president of environment. I didn’t wanna bribe anyone. Maybe that was a mistake. And so after like seven years of things going from back to worse with, tropical diseases, burglaries poisoning my dog, we, we even got full on attack by gun men with shotguns.

So there was a Call of Duty shootout in my garden. The time had come to move on. I left after seven years of essentially failure, lost like $8 million in the process, and I moved to a much smaller, but much more beautiful and safe place in, in Turks and Caicos where I don’t have the incubator and all that stuff, but I do host three tech conferences every year.

I brought the CO of eBay. I bring unicorn founders to brainstorm about the future of humanity, the state of tech. I host a crypto conference, et cetera. I own seven acres of land it’s much smaller. But I’m toying with the idea of moving to either Antigua or Nevus and getting 30, 50 acres and restarting that.

But again, it’s more for fun as much as anything else. It’s like intellectually stimulating it’s less scalable, meaningful than what I do on the professional side, some of the companies in a way that I’ve helped build, like Vinted, you know, Vinted now is like 10 billion in GMV, a billion in net revenues, hundreds of millions of users.

And it’s the first cross pan-European cross border transactional site. My right hand man at OLX is now the CEO there, the leverage I have through my tech investing in terms of impacting millions, if not billions of people, is way greater than these things.

But these things are fun and also an amazing place for me to bring my entire family and extended family together.

Dhruv Sharma: Fabrice, before we switch our focus to marketplaces and AI, I’m seeing there’s two or three questions, we can go through Amar Jt, would you like to ask your question? Then maybe Dheeraj can go on and we’ll take it from that.

Amar Jt: I think there are so many questions for Fabrice all the time, I think he’s doing so much. I think it’s fascinating. with the intensity and the speed at which you work, Fabrice, you always astonished me. You work on fifth gear and I think I sometimes I feel I’m not even on the first. really always so amazing to hear you.

I always remember, whenever we used to chat about it, I think India was one. I mean, you are already investing in India a little bit. I handle emerging markets now for Spotify, when you used to build companies, you know, and invest in them, you used to look at the world. When we started OLX, we were looking at, okay, how do we take great models from us and take it to the world?

Of course, you have moved way ahead of that now. Now what is your thought process about emerging markets, there is not enough happening there, but also enough happening what is your current, understanding of this market and how you’re investing? What do you think about the future? Love to have your latest view on this.

Fabrice Grinda: Maybe later I’ll explain how I can do as much as I do, because I think there are many trucks in terms of what you can outsource in life and how to be, productive in order to focus on the things that you love doing and not be distracted by all the things that take time that are actually non-value added and not in line with your own ethos.

So, FJ labs throughout history, we’ve really been reasonably constant, which means we’re about 50%, US and Canada, about 20% Western Europe, about 15% in Latin America. 5-10% in India and the rest of the rest of the world. So, emerging markets for us really is we prefer larger market countries like Brazil, like India, because there are large enough that you ha you can have companies that can scale two B unicorns just in that one country.

You end up having actually viable, venture capital ecosystems. You end up having exit markets, et cetera. So I’d like larger markets. But market large markets like Nigeria and Kenya, which are 200 and plus million. A hundred plus million, or actually still too far down the curve. So we have a few investments there, but we’re not a focus.

because of the geopolitical, macro trend right now of the new Cold War between the Westford writ large and China, well, I guess it’s China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and one side, and the west on the other side. everyone’s trying to move their supply chains out of China. And the only place that I think is scalable and interesting and the most scalable and interesting is India.

But because India is manufacturing base is mostly SMEs and as opposed to large manufacturers, there’s a unique opportunity to invest in marketplaces that help small business manufacturers in India export, and work with, Western companies. That’s why we’re investors in Zyod, Which is helping apparel manufacturers in India sell to brands in the west because they don’t know how to answer RFQs. They don’t know how to do prototyping. They don’t know how to do customs and export, et cetera. And we’re doing this kind of vertical by vertical. In fact, Utsav, one of this thesis right now is like scaling manufacturing in India and investing in manufacturing companies, which is fully aligned with this general macro trend of like moving manufacturing out of China, especially in India and scaling it and building brands locally, et cetera. So, that said, if I’m building a company, I would still be focusing on the US market right now because it’s where you get the most value.

You have 350 million rich people that are early adopters of your products. you can sell them at pretty high prices. it’s easy to raise capital, it’s easy to get exits. Even if you failed, you get acqui-hires and you can still salvage from the exit. I still prefer building and investing in the US. That said, especially a few markets like Brazil and India – are fascinating of course, Warren.

And if I was in India and I have a comparative edge there, I’d be very happy to focus and invest and be in India. it’s harder to build, are there interesting things happening everywhere globally now? Yes. the cost of launching a startup has basically gone to zero.

Even a non-programmer could use Lovable or Cursor and start creating a startup for almost nothing. So between, Cursor or GitHub with CoPilot and AWS and the cost of launching a startup and you have an explosion in creativity and company creation from non-traditional backgrounds.

You no longer need to be a Stanford computer science grad. we’re seeing interesting companies emerge from everywhere. But because the world is still capital constrained and you need people to buy your products, I still try to focus on the larger, more interesting markets. We’re seeing amazing things happening everywhere, and we do invest a little bit in Vietnam and the Philippines

It’s just that all that falls in the 5%.

Amar Jt: Thanks, Fabrice. And for everyone else, I want to really tell about him. He is, one of the most positive people I’ve met. and, I think he’s very large hearted, very transparent.

there’s nobody in the world I’ve met who will share everything about himself openly. I have found that amazing because I feel that people operate in two worlds of wonder that they show and watch they live. I think he lives the world so openly. And I think since I worked with him long time back, I feel that he’s relentless.

I wish you more power, for your amazing. You’re unstoppable and I think keep going and love to catch up with you soon.

Fabrice Grinda: No, thank you for the kind words. Look, I’m built ambitious, right? Where does that come from? Who knows, right? I never built companies to make money.

I built companies. I like creating something I nothing. I’d like having an impact and try to make the world a better place and living what I find is a purposeful life. Now, to Amar’s point, most people I think don’t, or not the true, authentic self, right? Like they have a facade when they interact with the rest of the world.

But when you are authentic, it comes through. And by the way, it’s so much easier to be yourself. Now that said, if I lived at, I don’t know, Mexico and there was risk of kidnapping of my kids or me or whatever, I probably wouldn’t be as transparent and open as I am. I feel that I can be in a position to share and be my truth with no downside and risk.

it resonates better with people to be authentic. I’d like to answer Dheeraj’s question because I think it’s very important, given the current bubble in AI. So Dheeraj, if you wanna ask it.

Dheeraj Jain: Yeah. you’re right. But I think there was two aspects. One is, is it more complex than the previous generation of startups, in the previous decade you could foresee where the market’s gonna evolve, what the product and the solution.

the uncertainty was very limited. But now some companies have scaled up so quickly, they like 10 million ARR, which used to take four, five years now happening in one year. And then the future rounds become very expensive. You know, you don’t probably able to do pro-rata and all that kind of stuff.

So that’s one side of the question. The second is also these companies, as you said, 75% of the companies in the last one year, are they also, gonna fail faster because the newer ones will come eventually. So they’re kind of two different things.

Fabrice Grinda: So look, is AI a megatrend?

Absolutely. will it transform the world in ways we cannot even begin to imagine? Absolutely. I also think though, like in every other tech revolution, it’ll take longer than people think, right? Like in the nineties, we had pets.com, we had Webvan. the ideas were good because ultimately we ended up having Chewy Instacart and Uber.

the tech and the market weren’t there right now, the valuations in which people were investing, implied that AI will. Take over the world, lead a massive productivity revolution immediately. And we on this call, or the early adopters, a hundred percent of our startups are using AI to improve programmer productivity, to change customer service, to improve sales, to actually change the funnels of buying and selling.

But when I look at these larger companies, or even SMBs, they are so far removed from implementing this. I suspect this revolution is gonna take a lot longer than people think. there’s gonna be this moment of disillusionment that is coming. And as an investor, I like to be contrarian.

in February 21, I wrote this blog post entitled, welcome to the Everything Bubble, where I said, if the valuations are so insane in every asset class, if it’s not anchored to the ground, sell it. I suspect something similar is happening in AI right now. people missed the boat, they should have invested in GPT or Open AI five, six years ago, and they missed the boat.

So they’re investing in everything else. The problem I’m seeing is multifold and it harks back to the problem of 2021. For each AI category, I see five or six or 10 well-funded competitors. So whatever category it is you have, you have a team from Harvard and a team from MIT and a team from Princeton and a team from Stanford all with 20 million of funding all going after it.

What worries me is that the competition between them is gonna bring the economics down to zero. They’re fighting for talent, they’re fighting, they’re increasing their customer acquisition cost by spending money and marketing or sales, and they’re decreasing pricing in order to gain share. So it’s leading to non-economic behavior.

One big problem that’s super competitive with a lot of companies is hard to tell of these amazing companies, which one is gonna win Problem number two, valuation you’re investing in is very high, such that if you don’t grow to a hundred million in ARR in record time, it’s hard to imagine how you’re gonna make money problem.

Number three, you may think you’ve won and then all of a sudden Open AI offers what you’re doing for free. you go from zero to 4 billion evaluation like, Olive AI, or you’re like Lensa went from zero to six 60 million a month, or 30 million a month back to zero, three months later.

When people realized they had used it and were done with it. I see these companies, even the current winners, right, like the two winners from an A RR perspective right now are Cursor and Lovable. If you’re at a hundred million ARR in record time. The thing is, can I imagine a world where GitHub copilot just gives it away for free?

And this is a race to the bottom in revenues in the future. Yes. Can I imagine a world where for whatever reason, opening I decide this is something they want to do and they offered away for free. Two years ago, I used Midjourney for images. Now I just used Dall-E. Two years ago when I wanted to do a video, I used Runway.

Now I just used Sora. this is kind of scary. You can have, category expansion my Open AI. Lots of competitors, new orthogonal people arriving. deep seek ended up not being an existential threat to Open AI, but it could have been. these deep seek moments could happen in any major vertical.

it’s not to say I don’t invest in AI, but I’m very careful. The AI invested in is vertical applications, based on differentiated data sets where the data you have access to is profoundly different at reasonable valuations that are not far from the normal valuations. Right now our pre-seed deals are like five or six but in AI they typically are 25.

I’m not gonna do more than 8. Our pre-seed deals in the US are like 10 to 12 pre, and it either could be 50. I’m not gonna more than like 15 or 10 to 12, I’m not gonna do more than 15. Or A deals right now are like 7 to 18 pre, eight at 20 pre, maybe 10 at 30 pre.

And in AI I’ve seen that like a hundred million. the median is way lower than the mean because of like second time founders AI, et cetera. I try to stay within the right valuation range and I am seeing deals. At the right price with differentiated data sets in verticals where there’s a willingness to pay,

The issue is there are many categories where there’s no willingness to pay. And giving me metrics like, users per day and DAUs, is not something I value. I value unit economics CAC retention and, contribution margin, we are seeing interesting deals.

We’re like Voca, which is helping doctor’s offices in Europe and France specifically, to digitize and connecting their electric medical records. We’re in a company that’s helping cities collect parking tickets. there’s a whole bunch of stuff in these vertical AI companies that we’re doing, but we invested in the right valuation and the right teams, et cetera.

As an angel, I would be very careful because you might be better off investing in the current round of Open AI at 300 billion valuation I think they’ve won. they’ll continue winning and there’ll be a multi-trillion dollar company in the future.

That’s probably a safer bet despite the price than investing at a hundred pre in a seed or A company in AI. Got it. Thank you.

Dhruv Sharma: I think this is a great moment to ask you a question about your anti VC strategy, right? Selling winners on the way up, especially against this backdrop of AI and forever private companies and permanent capital vehicles. another structural question around venture. We’d love your thoughts.

Fabrice Grinda: Venture is seeing a profound shift, right? Because there’s been no exits in 22, 23, 24, there’s been no DPI. So venture is in the midst of a transformation and recession. 2000 VCs have closed their doors in the last, few years in the US and we’re seeing a schism between. The winners that are in massive funds that, or I would not even describe them as venture funds anymore.

I would describe them as asset accumulators. The Andreessen Horowitz, the General Catalyst, they basically now billions. And they’re becoming evergreen. They’re saying once the company’s going public, their eyes, they’re holding the sock, et cetera, they’re no longer going to be giving three X returns.

They’re gonna be compounding at 10- 15%. which pension funds think are okay, but it’s no longer venture. And then on the other end, you’re gonna have specialized, like we are in a way, the marketplace- seed- asset light funds that are like three, four, 500 million that are specialized in different categories that because their expertise can do rather well.

And everyone in the middle I think is going to die. What’s interesting is many of these funds, the reason they’re dying is because the LPs feel overexposed to venture. They’ve had better returns by investing in Nasdaq in the S&P 500, and there’s no illiquidity premium. And our strategy, of selling or winner is on the way up, is actually, especially for an early stage fund, proven to be correct because the beauty of not leading, not having 25% of a company is twofold.

You don’t need to do your pro-rata. So if a company is doing okay and you own 25% of it, you have to do your pro-rata even if you don’t want to, because if you don’t do it, the company dies. It doesn’t get funded in the next round. VCs end up writing a lot of follow on checks in companies they would rather not but they have to.

The second thing is. I don’t believe in this. the winners do keep on winning, but you don’t invest at any price. I will evaluate every single round as though I’m not an existing investor, knowing what I know now of the team, of the traction of the category, of the valuation. Would I invest in this round?

And what happens is the winners often, I feel, are priced to perfection. They’re like at a hundred X, It’s gonna take years for them to grow in valuation. but they are the winners. there is demand for it, right? You can’t sell the dogs, right?

Like, so I don’t wanna mess on the dogs, but no one will buy them for me. But if the company is crushing it and I find is extremely. Priced over where it should be. We often sell 50% of the way up because there’s an opportunity as the VCs want more ownership. the founders don’t dislike it because they’re like, Greylock, Andreessen, and Sequoia all want in.

I want them, they all want 15%. I don’t want ’em to find a competitor, but I don’t want 45% dilution, so I’ll take 30% dilution. I need to find secondary, and you happen to own 2-3% as a favor, would you mind selling them? I’m like, look, I love you, but I’m happy to help out. And so we typically sell 50% when we feel the company’s doing well.

it is the reason we’ve added 30% realized IRR we have had exits in 22 23, 24 and 25. Most of our exits have come through secondaries, either through platforms like Forge, which are marketplaces for secondaries or on the way up, but you can only sell the winners.

We don’t always sell the winners because if the winners are priced correctly, we keep investing. It’s based on what I know now, the company at the traction of the terms do I think it’s overpriced. And if it’s a bit overpriced, we probably hold.

But if it’s massively overpriced, then we sell, in 21, whatever. Tiger and SoftBank were coming in, we basically had heuristic. If they’re coming in, we sell. it was a very good heuristic to have. Right now there’s actually a lot of stuff that we feel is priced correctly and we keep investing

The last strand was at a 5 billion valuation. if we had had more capital, we would’ve backed up the truck and wrote it like 10 or 20 or 50 million Now, I don’t have enough capital to do that. My fund is only, 290 million last fund. This fund is gonna be 300 million. We just first close.

But yes, selling on the way up, taking liquidity, you’re not gonna regret it. Selling 50% is, kind of the magic number because if it goes to zero, you’ve made 10 x, you’re happy. If it goes to the moon, you still have 50%, you’re happy. on average we sell 50%. Now, if it’s outrageously priced like a hundred X ARR, maybe we’ll sell 75%.

And if we’re on the fence, but if we sell 25%, we get three X and we’re still happy to run it, maybe we’ll sell 25%. But most of the cases when we do sell, we sell 50%. we typically don’t hold in the public markets, So we either sell into the IPO or we sell after the lockup. the reason we don’t is we’re not public market investors.

Right now I have proprietary access as CEO, I can talk to the CEO and, it gives me perspective. I could be helpful. We can have meaningful conversations.

We have propriety data, The minute it’s a public company, we’re a tiny investor amongst fidelity and whomever. We no longer have proprietor information. I’ve been compounding at 30% IRR in the private side. I think there’s zero way I’m gonna compound in 30% IR in the public side.

So I’m gonna keep reinvesting in the private side, so take liquidity and reinvest. I have a venture fund slash angel investing machine so I can do it. If you don’t have that, you probably shouldn’t do that.

Dhruv Sharma: Fabrice, Do we still have some time with you?

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah. I’m free for the next 25 minutes.

Dhruv Sharma: Alright. we can’t have you and not ask questions around marketplaces. Fabrice, you’ve solved so many different problems within marketplaces, global marketplaces, but, what do you think still remains unsolved or under solved at scale in the context of marketplaces?

Fabrice Grinda: So if you think of your consumer life, Marketplaces have basically transformed them for the better already, right? If you’re in the US you have DoorDash, you could get food in like 15 minutes. You have Instacart and you can, your grocery delivered an hour or two. You can go to Amazon, which is mostly a marketplace.

And you could get whatever you want in a day or two. you have Airbnb, you have booking. your life is pretty extraordinary. despite that, there’s still innovation in marketplaces. we’re starting to see peer-to-peer rental marketplaces like pickle come to the fore.

We’re starting to see live shopping marketplaces like PalmStreet for rare plants but if you go to the B2B world, we’re at day zero. We’re in the dark ages, if you want to buy inputs like petrochemicals. There’s not even a catalog of what’s available. There’s no connectivity to the factory to understand manufacturing delays and capacity. There’s no online ordering. There’s no online payment, there’s no tracking. There’s no financing. This needs to happen for every input geography and category. So whether you’re buying minerals or gravel or steel, but it’s also for machine parts and heavy machinery and you name it.

So all input categories. SMBs need to be digitized. And that’s not only true in places like India where all the little bodegas, et cetera, are all pen and paper. it’s also true in the US. We’ve been investing in digitization software for dry cleaners, people running, yoga classes and spas.

We’ve been running it for barbershops, for pizzerias, for Chinese restaurants, you name it. All of these are like literally sub 5%, typically sub 1% penetration. That’s true of, Creating the entire infrastructure to support these marketplaces. payment mechanism, shipping mechanism. Last month, picking and packing, automation companies were investors, a company called Formic, which basically is a marketplace to help companies, bring robots into their assembly lines.

So, recommerce is now coming to B2B, so we’re starting to see recommerce marketplaces for apparel, a company called Ghost, or for baby stuff, company called Rebel. we’re at the very beginning of marketplaces making a dent in B2B. And B2B of course, is way more of GDP in a way than the consumer world.

we’re talking about trillions Petrochemicals, 4 trillion, steel, 1 trillion, We’re at day zero. So everything needs to be done. It’s a massive mega trend that will last for the next two decades, basically. And I’m happy to ride on the coattails of it.

Dhruv Sharma: A related question to the role of AI in marketplaces of Fabrice.

This one’s a specific question. Amongst the smartest founders, you know, how are you seeing them figure out how to get better at answer engine optimization in this post-LLM era?

Fabrice Grinda: What’s interesting is many of the marketplaces were worried, that oh the top of funnel is going to be captured by the LLMs and they’re going to be disintermediating me etc.

And I do not worry about that at all. because if you think about. The way people behave and buy on marketplaces is threefold. Either they don’t know what they’re looking for and they like to browse and shop. it’s like shopping as entertainment, which is like OLX or Vinted, in which case you don’t want, an LLM to give you a better funnel,

Because the purpose, is actually seeing a feed. you typically look at low value items and find something you like, you buy it. The conversion rate of visit, it buys low. So, there’s no role for an LLM there. Number two, search. So aside like eBay or frankly Amazon, you know exactly what you’re looking for.

You put in search engine, boom, you’re done. There’s no reason to go to an LLM just as an extra click. And number three though, consider purchases. So something where you don’t know exactly what you’re looking for, or it’s something where you are gonna take your time because it’s a high value item.

So buying real estate, buying a car, or maybe buying specialty equipment an LLM can play a role, but even then it’s not obvious that the winning LLM is GPT versus actually a specialized site like Carvana that has an LLM to help you make decisions on what to buy. Like on Amazon, there’s Rufus, which is pretty good at giving you advice on what to buy.

So, I wouldn’t worry about the LLMs disrupting the top of funnel. So I would index myself. I would do AEO. And there are companies like Graphite HQ that are very good at AEO. And by the way, the way I think about it is if you’re willing to index yourself in Google. You should be willing to index yourself in the LLMs.

And if you have a 99% market share in your category, then don’t index yourself in Google because you don’t want this. The behavior people go there, in order to search. But even then, like if you have a massive dominant share, even if people search in Google or the LLMs, the results will come from your site, so you’re still winning because you’re doing the fulfillment, you’re doing the payment.

And these guys will never do that. That’s not, it’s not at the top hundred things that GPT wants to do, and then in the next decade. They’re not thinking of that. so even if they capture top of funnel because you have liquidity, because you have fulfillment payment, et cetera, you’re still gonna capture all the value.

You know, if you go to Google today in the US and you type A whatever, LGC 4.0 lead TV 65 inch. All the results are basically Amazon and eBay, they have like 80% market share, so they’re getting all the value, even if there’s a little bit of revenue there. So I would do AEO, there’s a company called Graphite HQ that’s very good at helping with AEO.

Now there are things beyond AEO that I would do, you know, get the free traffic. But beyond that, that you could use AI for the following things. One, if you want to be cross-border, with ai you can actually translate the listing. So within India, for instance, because there are different languages I could imagine translating a hundred percent of the listings across all the languages.

you translate the listing and then you can auto translate the conversations between the users. So right now in Vinted in Europe before Vinted Europe was not Europe. It was a French site, a German site, a British site, a Polish site, a Lithuanian site. Vinted actually translate the listings, between all the languages.

The conversations with consumers are also translated, and they have a great embedded payment and shipping. Now, it only works because they have embedded payment shipping, but as a result, they’ve now become a true pan-European company. So I can imagine having a true, true Penn Indian company with automatic, translated all the listings, conversations, et cetera, as long as you figured out a way to do payment and shipping.

cross border is becoming a thing because of AI. We have a company called Ovoko doing it for car parts, CarOnSale, doing for B2B cars. Number two, I would use AI to massively improve your cell funnel. The old way of listing things on marketplaces is you take 10 photos, you pick a category, you write a title, you write a description, you select a price.

But the reality is you as the marketplace, you have the data. You should be able to recognize what the item is. You should be able to pick the category, write the description, write the title, even consider the condition and suggest the price. And so you should make it so easy, that your visit to listing rate should improve dramatically.

I would improve the search engine. in the long term, the way Amazon has done it, which is two search engines, Rufus to ask questions about products and one search engine for search results doesn’t make sense. You’re gonna have only one search engine where you can ask anything, whether it’s like, oh, I wanna buy whatever the LG C 4.0 LED tv, or, what TV should I buy?

it could be one search box for both LLM type answers. and product type answers. I would use AI to improve program and productivity. Everyone should be using GitHub or Copilot or Cursor. AI for customer care to decree to do all the basic stuff like whatever returns, payment issues.

I mean, AI could be so profoundly good and everyone should be using AI and improve your sales teams. There are tools out there that could bring your average salesperson productivity to 90% of your best salesperson productivity. So, I would use it for that. And then on top of that, I would do AEO, in order, in order to get access to free traffic.

Dhruv Sharma: what my final question for you, Fabrice. How are you able to do so much? And, you said you tell us how you outsource ruthlessly, and which side quests are you most excited about right now?

Fabrice Grinda: So, I guess two different questions. I like to be intellectually simulated and I outsource all the things that I find repetitive and not interesting. This way I like to be the creative director if you want. I like to play with product. I wanted to be doing the Figma and writing the user stories, et cetera.

Here at FJ Labs, I want to talk to the most fascinating founders. both the new ones that I would like to invest in and the ones that I’ve invested in to help them. And then daydream about what are the trends, what should be happening, what’s happening in AI, write blog posts, et cetera.

The reason I have FJ Labs, the reason I have a VC fund is the team allows me to, to only focus on things I’d like to do. So FJ Labs, we have. Nine investors total who filter the 300 deals. I can talk to five. that’s why I have a VC fund, by the way. But things I do, so I have virtual assistants in the Philippines.

I have two of them. And I outsource ruthlessly, everything from like thinking through, I. Paying all my bills, coming up with ideas for days, new interesting shows to go see. managing, of course, all my agenda. You can outsource a lot more than you think you can. I have an offline butler that takes care of all the offline things.

Now, of course, a butler is a bit more expensive, though, probably not in India, but a virtual in the Philippines full time is like 1500 a month. I like creating for my parents a photo album of all my adventures of the year before. I have a photo album creator that I hired on Upwork, who’s in Bangladesh.

I’m actually a pretty good video editor myself, but I’ve someone to help me and video editing that I found, also an Upwork to, to help with the video editing. Even the childcare, I have two kids. a 4-year-old and a 1-year-old. I found on care.com five nannies that I hire.

I pay them hourly and create an online Google Docs where I write the coverage I want, and they agree between themselves who takes what shifts. when I travel, one, takes one week, the other takes one week, et cetera. they fully self-manage and regulate the shifts they take because of course the French nannies only wanna work 20 hours a week max, so that’s why I need five.

But you can out all the things you don’t like to do. Like I don’t like to cook, so I have a chef You can outsource everything in life to focus on the things you’d love to do. Now, the side quests, in my case and the things I love to do, as I said, it’s a combination of like meeting these sort founders, writing, thinking.

But frankly, it’s like spending time with my kids and I love to play. And I play tennis. I play paddle, I kite surf, I go back country skiing. Every year I go in a crazy off-grid adventure where, you know, I walked to the South Pole, two years ago where I was pulling my a hundred pound flood in negative 50 weather, which is kind of like an active Vipassana retreat because you’re alone with your thoughts walking eight hours a day, being off grid in this hyperconnected world is such a true privilege, where you can be reflective and thoughtful.

So yeah, continue to explore, what means for me to be spiritual, to be a good person I read an hour, an hour and a half every day before bed. So I read like a hundred books every year. Currently I’m rereading Meditations by Marcus Aurelius, which I highly recommend, to everyone out there.

I have a lot of side quests hosting my salons, and it’s fun. The purpose of life for me is to live a rich life. to find things that bring you purpose, meaning, to communicate, to be social and to be entertained. even work for me is entertaining.

[01:03:05] Dhruv Sharma: Fabrice, this has been great. Thank you again so much for your time. This is, This is really fuel, I think for all of us who attended. This is Fuel to go by for the next few months. Such a pleasure. Have a great rest of the day.

Fabrice Grinda: Thank you. I have a few more minutes, so if Snehil wants to ask this question, I see his hands raised.

Right. That’s fine.

Snehil Khanor: No questions. Just wanted to thank you. I don’t know if you remember, we have been connected on Facebook for more than 12 years now.

Utsav Somani: Oh, wow.

Snehil Khanor: I think since 2012 when I was just starting entrepreneurship, there was hardly any resource or network to learn from other founders.

You have always been kind. I think we have interacted three, four times on Messenger, over the last decade. And, you have always been kind to reply and guide, so thanks a lot for that.

Fabrice Grinda: I mean, it is words like these that are the reason I’d like to share, that I like to write that I’d like to, put out there, what I’ve learned.

I think the reason I have my blog every AI is, sharing what I wish I knew when I was starting as a 23-year-old entrepreneur, and founder that I now know.

Snehil Khanor: Thanks. I’m from that, 22 year, 23-year-old also.

Fabrice Grinda: Thank you everyone. This was super fun. feel free to follow up and I look forward, continuing the conversation.

第 49 集:Dan Park 和 Clutch 令人難以置信的複出故事

Clutch 經歷了一段令人難以置信的旅程。作為加拿大的 Carvana“ 它在 2021 年是高飛的。它在 2023 年與死亡擦肩而過,並實現了令人難以置信的轉變。他們現在又一次陷入困境。Clutch的創始人兼首席執行官Dan Park加入了我們,分享了一路走來的所有經驗教訓。

如果您願意,可以在嵌入式播客播放機中收聽該劇集。

除了上述 YouTube 影片和嵌入式播客播放機外,您還可以在 iTunesSpotify 上收聽播客。

抄本

法布裡斯格林達: 大家好。我希望您度過了美好的一周。我非常興奮,因為本周我們將討論 Clutch 的不可思議的故事,有點像加拿大的 Carvana,我希望這是一次超高飛行。我與死亡擦肩而過,然後我又一次非凡的回歸,他們現在又一次撕裂了。

我們所有人在這裡都學到了很多經驗教訓,瞭解在不同情況下該怎麼做,我期待著這樣做。所以,再多說什麼,讓我們開始吧。歡迎來到第 49 集。Clutch 和令人難以置信的複出故事。

Dan,感謝您的參與。

丹·派克: 謝謝你邀請我。這太好了。

法布裡斯格林達: 那麼,我們為什麼不先從您的一點背景開始,然後再次強調一下是什麼導致了 Clutch 的創建呢?

丹·派克: 所以我認為,也許就像大多數企業家一樣,將汽車銷售作為嘗試建立大事的媒介。

但最初我的職業生涯始於金融。實際上,我花了幾年時間在你這邊做風險投資或舞台投資,這是我喜歡的。但我覺得我自己確實渴望拉動一些槓桿,我覺得在金融的不同學科中,風險投資可能是最接近拉動其中一些槓桿的,但你還沒有。當然,每天都在努力,並且早在 2016 年就有機會加入 Uber。當時,Uber 正在考慮在汽車之外進行一些不同的商業想法。他們創建了這個名為Uber的團體,具有諷刺意味的是,它確實如此。

不是所有的事情,也不是所有不是拼車的事情。所以這可能沒什麼。但當時 Travis 還在那兒,Travis 問了一個問題,你知道,如果你能在 5 分鐘內把車送到某人那裡,那你能在 5 分鐘內給別人帶來什麼?我也是這樣。這是第一次,第一次圍繞食物進行了實驗。

開始看到一些關於需求和人們想要按需食物的信號。這有點像早期的食品配送。你知道,DoorDash 在當時肯定是發展勢頭強勁的。世界上還有其他模式只在歐洲提供外賣服務,而Uber Eats 優食才剛剛起步,實際上在全球範圍內,它始於多倫多,也就是我的工作地點。

所以觀看並成為其中的一部分很有趣。從超級早期開始,我們就是,第一次反覆運算甚至不是一個市場。那是一群人。進入Uber,或者遺憾地,買食物,在停車場見面,把25個三明治塞進Uber裡。當時還沒有單獨的 Eats 產品應用程式。

它只是Uber應用程式。然後,沒有UberX,而是Uber Instant等,在某一天,有漢堡,有一些泰式炒河粉,還有一些我的三明治等等,你選擇你想要的東西,它就會送到你家門口。但庫存規劃是一場災難,因為,你知道,一個司機會在一個小時內用完他們的 25 個三明治,然後另一個司機在四個小時后仍然帶著 50 個泰式炒河粉開車。

但這是按需送餐的早期信號,我們從那時起開始收購餐廳。您知道,我們構建了現在的Uber Eats 應用的當前版本。這是在當地的一個會議室里完成的,為期三個月。超級原始的 MVP,但我們把它弄出來了。

法布裡斯格林達: 那段時間你住在多倫多?

丹·派克: 該公司總部位於多倫多,業務始於全球,從Uber Eats 優食產品開始於多倫多以外的全球發展。所以我們是發射城市。

法布裡斯格林達: 哦哇。太神奇了!

丹·派克: 我認為這是其中一件事情,你知道,如果Uber把它搞砸了,那就像,哦,這是加拿大和加拿大所做的那些事情之一,你知道的,把它掃到地毯下。

那是個錯誤。但它成功了。而且,你知道,我的損益在三年內從零增加到了 30 億。至少在 GMV 中是這樣。你知道,我們學到了很多關於市場的知識。三面市場,司機超級複雜,我們稱它們為食客、司機和餐館。

這很困難,因為這是很難讓任何人滿意的市場之一。因為司機想得到更多的報酬,餐館想付更少的錢,而且,而且,顧客真的不想支付超過 5 到 6 美元的送貨費。因此,在市場平衡、定價和接受率方面穿針引線是具有挑戰性的。

我認為我們每年消耗大約4億。Travis 進來後說,你們是什麼?我想我們在紐約市的一次旅行損失了 17 美元,你知道嗎,基本上就像這個生意是誰,這個生意工作是什麼?必須有人去證明單位經濟性。

因此,在八周的時間里,亞特蘭大市場和我們自己都受到了影響。基本上有多倫多市場,因為我們是最早的兩個市場,必須弄清楚如何在很短的時間內實現正的單位經濟效益。我們做到了,然後我們又回到了增長模式。

法布裡斯格林達: 了不起。

丹·派克: 是的。然後你知道,是的,我,我在那裡呆了大約三年多,Clutch 的一位董事會成員,我在 VC 時代就認識他,他找到我說,嘿,你看,這就像是真正的早期公司種子前階段。他們在網上賣車,在網上送貨。

您正在在線送餐,您應該這樣做。我對加拿大二手車的空白空間感到非常興奮。我認為這是最後一個真正的電子商務品類,沒有被電子商務完全顛覆,或者很遺憾,零售品類還沒有被電子商務完全顛覆。在加拿大,與美國不同,美國有一些像 CarMax 這樣的大品牌,在美國,加拿大沒有真正的二手車零售品牌。

這是一筆如此複雜的交易,交易的不透明性和缺乏透明度。感覺有更好的方法。因此,我們現在已經在加拿大建立了一個圍繞二手車的完全託管市場。

法布裡斯格林達: 那麼,您是什麼時候加入 Clutch 的種子前階段的?

丹·派克: 是的,那是 2019 年。我認為,如果你回頭看,我不知道二手車業務是否還有更糟糕的五年。鑒於大流行,考慮到現在的關稅,鑒於 2022 年和 2023 年增長股本的蒸發,早期二手車業務。

但我們活了下來。就像你在節目開始時所說的那樣,我們學到了很多東西。

法布裡斯格林達: 所以在 2019 年,Carvana 的狀態是什麼樣的,這是一種靈感還是獨特的動力,這並不重要。

丹·派克: 是的。他們很早,有一些獨特的動力。我認為這是一個證明,這種模式有可能奏效。但你知道,與此同時,你很了解這個故事,我的意思是,過去有 BP,我的意思是,人們,這不是第一次嘗試這樣做了。所以我想我。

人們可能更傾向於在線交易。自 bp 時代以來,電子商務顯然發生了重大變化,人們更願意在網上購買大件商品。所以我認為消費者已經進化了,但在 Carvana 燒掉數十億美元的時候,商業模式肯定還沒有得到證實。因此,圍繞這項業務仍然存在很多問號,但我們知道這一點,並且我們堅信必須有一種更好的方式來為人們提供更簡單的二手車體驗。

法布裡斯格林達: 您為什麼不向我們介紹一下 Clutch 二手車的購買體驗,以及為什麼它比離線同類產品好得多。

丹·派克: 是的。所以你知道,傳統的購車體驗是你走進一家轉銷商,你花四五個小時與一些銷售人員談判。他們試圖將一堆金融服務產品塞進你的喉嚨。你知道,在某些市場。如果你進入一個為車輛做廣告的網站,他們甚至不會告訴你汽車的價格。

他們只會說聯繫我們詢價,這意味著就像你來拜訪我時,我會根據你的談判能力或我認為你有多笨拙來確定我可以向你收取多少費用,對吧。所以,你知道,這非常可怕。我認為定價的透明度非常低,而藉助技術,我們可以談談我們如何在車輛定價方面應用相當深入的技術。

肯定有一種方法可以提供更透明的體驗。這就是我們所做的。因為我們直接從消費者那裡購買汽車。因此,我們在客戶找到我們的市場上提供即時現金報價,提供有關他們車輛的一些資訊,然後我們為他們提供汽車的即時現金報價。

我們每天購買價值約 200 萬美元的汽車。然後,我們把這些汽車放在一個完全垂直整合的翻新流程中,這就是託管市場元素發揮作用的地方,對吧?我們冒著庫存的風險提供更好、更高品質的產品。

因此,我們對其進行了翻新過程,我們拿了一輛由於某種原因別人不想要的二手車,然後把它變成一輛非常理想的汽車。我們將其放在我們的網站上,並提供一種非常無縫且簡單的購車方式。幾乎就像,你知道的,我們試圖讓買車就像點披薩一樣簡單。

有點像對我送餐的日子的致敬。但我們希望讓它變得超級簡單,我們也圍繞它構建了物流,因為今天沒有真正的高品質 3 PL,我們可以將汽車直接運送給消費者。沒有什麼是像那樣存在的。

因此,我們必須建立自己的原木物流,以及圍繞它的完整基礎設施,我認為這對我們來說創造了很多優勢和競爭優勢,因為在這一點上,真的很難破壞交付產品所需的基礎設施的物理性質。

法布裡斯格林達: 所以,我總結一下我所聽到的。是的。如果你賣車,你拍幾張照片和一些描述,你會立即得到一個報價,繁榮。車子賣了。所以這超級簡單!

丹·派克: 我們甚至不拍,甚至不要求拍照,因為我們是按比例拍攝的。

法布裡斯格林達: 好。所以只是 VIN 或其他任何東西。所以,然後汽車的買家有一個固定的價格,他們點擊購買,然後它直接送到他們家。

丹·派克: 或者在我們的任何地點取貨。

法布裡斯格林達: 好。完善。是的。你在使用庫存,你在購買汽車,你在翻新它們,等等。

有沒有,或者您是否考慮過一種模式,您可能只有在售出後才能對其進行翻新?所以你不需要拿庫存,或者你覺得庫存是必需的?

丹·派克: 我們很早就嘗試了更多的寄售模式,但寄售模式對消費者的價值主張非常小。

你知道,你得說服別人,我要帶你的車走一會兒,對吧?如果您不知道它是否已售出,您將無法完成,但是,您知道,當它售出時,我們會對其進行一些處理。但相信我們,你知道,讓我們就像玩這個等待遊戲一樣,看看會發生什麼,你知道,現在對我們來說,由於我們可以提供的報價,我們可以提供即時的確定性,你知道,如果有人離開這個國家,幾乎沒有選擇,這是一個相當大的用例, 你要離開這個國家,或者你打算賣掉你的車,你會把你的車開給我們,在去機場的路上還車,對吧?

它允許這種確定性,而如果你正在經歷。其中一個清單網站或嘗試在 eBay 或 Craigslist 或其他任何網站上列出它,這將需要多人過來談判。有些人很認真,有些人不認真。

所以這很麻煩。因此,現在個人銷售汽車的傳統方式非常複雜。所以我認為我們真的解決了。現在我們電池產品的 NPS 約為 85。如果你不盤點,就很難創造這種體驗。

我認為,隨著我們的進展,我們可以討論其中的一些問題。但是,回到 2020 年,回到 2019 年,圍繞著你是盤點還是不盤點,仍然存在這種兩派的想法?當時的答案還不是很清楚。現在我認為情況更清楚了,因為答案和在過去五年中倖存下來的人是,是那些建立基礎設施來盤點庫存的公司,這樣他們就可以提供更高品質的產品,然後控制整個供應鏈或基本上整個過程。

我不一定想對 Elon 發表政治評論,但在他的書中有一個叫做白癡指數的概念,對吧?我不知道你是否讀過這篇文章,但白癡指數是與投入成本一起提供的商品的價格。

如果這個比率非常高。要麼流程中存在缺陷,要麼可以更高效地完成某些事情。在汽車翻新中,您去某個轉銷商處修理汽車的費用將非常昂貴。更換空氣篩檢程式就像 60 美元,對吧?

但是空氣篩檢程式本身的成本就像 1 美元。更換保險杠,需要一些油漆,一些塑膠和一些金屬,還有一點點人工,根據汽車的不同,成本高達 2,000 至 4,000 美元。我們所做的是大規模修復,使我們能夠以相對較低的成本在汽車中投入大量工作。

這對消費者來說是非常非常高的價值,這使我們能夠在購買汽車時提供更高的價格,然後以相同或更低的價格向消費者提供更好的汽車。

法布裡斯格林達: 你會買任何車嗎,因為很明顯,如果你的庫存正在貶值並且你無法出售它,那就有問題了。

丹·派克: 是的。所以,我們幾乎每輛車都開走,我們一半的業務是零售,一半是批發。因此,一半的業務是不符合我們零售標準的汽車,我們不會翻新,我們將進行批發,其他轉銷商或其他拍賣會購買。

法布裡斯格林達: 我們有幾個問題。當我們在做這件事時。您是否在加拿大的任何地方送貨到買家家門口,無論地點如何或僅在某些地方。

丹·派克: 是的。今天,我們在地理上限制了一切,最終我們將交付到任何地方。但它基本上將處於區域化的庫存集群中,因為在某個時候,在整個國家之間移動庫存是沒有意義的。

如果你到了一定的選擇水準,你知道,如果你的庫存中有 50 輛本田思域,你是否需要獲得額外的,你知道,不管怎樣,它是來自不同市場的 20 輛。人們會怎麼做,這是一個優化問題是,他們會選擇本田思域,它可能便宜 20 美元,但在全國範圍內。

而且,也許沒有那麼不同。因此,將您的庫存限制在地理上也只是提高了您的物流能力。

法布裡斯格林達: 有道理,也是另一個問題。您是什麼時候籌集資金的?您是從一開始就籌集資金,還是僅在您意識到需要資金來發展時才籌集資金?或者說結果如何?

丹·派克: 是的,所以我們有這種有趣的先有雞還是先有蛋的問題。接收庫存非常昂貴。每次我們購買一項資產時,我都會花 20 到 30,000 美元來購買庫存,也就是說,我們使用債務融資來做到這一點,但在早期,你沒有太多的歷史。你在燒錢。所以貸方不想借錢給你。然後是股權。供應商就像,誰來資助您的庫存?在您找到某人為您的庫存提供資金之前,他們不會進行股權投資。所以在早期,這是一個真正的冷啟動問題,因為你需要庫存來擴大市場。

所以,我的意思是,早期我們為我們的債務融資支付了相當高的利率。我對庫存有個人擔保。因此,我和作為創始人的 Steve 都在庫存線上提供個人擔保。因此,我們必須很早就籌集股本,以便能夠支撐資產負債表。

這是一項非常資本密集型的業務,我不知道這是好事還是壞事,我們可以稍微談談,但對我們來說,我們必須儘早做。因此,我們目前已經經歷了多輪融資,今天我們籌集了大約 2 億加元。

法布裡斯格林達: 您描述的對於需要這筆資金的公司來說,有一種非常標準的傳送帶。你從每年 18% 或 20% 的絕對價格開始,以非常昂貴的家族辦公室削減對沖基金資本。這太高了,但你別無選擇。

然後逐漸地,你會得到更好的條款,你變得像二線銀行一樣。然後最後您在 A 獲得任何花旗銀行或滙豐銀行的信用額度。現在,可能是 78%。

丹·派克: 當它得到 Secure 時,你可以得到一個 prime、prime minus、

法布裡斯格林達: 好。哦,甚至更好。好。

丹·派克: 是的。所以我們從十幾歲開始。對於擔保融資,然後我們最終轉向更合理的利率,即現在的最優惠利率。

法布裡斯格林達: 那麼,我們為什麼不談談那些飛速發展的歲月呢。就像在某個時候,你最終籌集了一輪驚人的資金,一切看起來都像是向右的。

所以我們談論什麼,比如當時發生了什麼,它是如何出錯的,然後你是否再來一次。

丹·派克: 是的。我不知道你是會提出來,還是我會提出來,但我的意思是,我仍然清楚地記得 2020 年的那次談話,在你擴大規模之前先搞定它。

法布裡斯格林達: 是的。

丹·派克: 實際上,我考慮了很多。我會思考,我們是否應該更好地遵循這個建議,或者我們是否仍然做出了正確的決定。我認為回顧過去是很困難的,我認為我們所做的很多事情都是根據當時的情況進行的。

當時 Chap Capital 真的很便宜而且很容易獲得。我認為這種模式在很長一段時間內都是有效的。很多企業Uber就是一個很好的例子,它現在才真正存在,因為有廉價的資金。所以你知道,那時我們有一個競爭對手,這在很大程度上是一種贏家通吃的心態,如果不是贏家的話。

這激發了我們的很多決定。我認為,當我們在Uber時,我們輸給了競爭對手很多地面戰鬥,因為我們沒有足夠早地進入那裡,當我們最終開始推出這些城市時,我們仍然需要大量的時間和金錢,你知道,甚至在他們已經建立的市場份額上有所影響。所以這確實構成了我當時的很多想法,尤其是面對我們面臨的一個激進的競爭對手。所以當時的心態是這樣的,我過去做過這個,你擴大規模,然後你弄清楚單位經濟效益,因為我們知道汽車銷售業務是一個有利可圖的業務。因此,一旦你達到了規模,你就沒有理由不能提供相同甚至更好的單位經濟效益。現在,Carmount 在公開市場上上演了這種情況。例如,他們的財務狀況比 CarMax 更具吸引力。但情況並非總是如此。所以

法布裡斯格林達: 所以你覺得這是一場搶線,在搶線中,你想花錢,獲得市場和市場份額。有趣的是,這種心態實際上殺死了 Beepy。

丹·派克: 是的。

法布裡斯格林達: 但有些時候,如果你走得不夠快,贏家通吃或佔據大部分市場,你就會死。

所以博弈論決策樹通常是你花錢,因為他們就像,如果你不花錢,他們花錢,他們就贏了。如果你們都花錢,你們都在某種程度上輸了,但這就是納什均衡。

丹·派克: 是的。而且,如果你不花錢,你就不會成長。如果你不發展,你就不會獲得資金。如果你沒有獲得資金,你就不會增長。所以,而且,我認為這真的只在某種程度上有效。低利率,喜歡廉價的資金環境。你知道,在我們開始之前,你問我,你知道,你會接受那一億美元嗎?我的意思是,我認為從一開始,就像第一次介紹到成交不到四個星期。

這超級簡單。

法布裡斯格林達: 那些日子就是這樣。

丹·派克: 是的。這甚至不是最高的估值。我們的估值高出 30%,我記得當時我正在打電話,與投資者交談,說服他為什麼他的估值太高了,對吧?就像,情況正好相反。出於多種不同的原因,我們選擇了價格較低的公司,事後看來,這可能是正確的決定。

但它就是,它就在那裡,它很容易。你知道,有人給你一億美元去建設,就像,很難說不。它的估值非常高,所以我們對此感到興奮,你知道的。

法布裡斯格林達: 所以當我們給出一些細節時。那是在 9 月、10 月、11 月 21 日。

丹·派克: 那是 2021 年底。是的,沒錯。

法布裡斯格林達: 好。所以你或多或少地提高了多少,用什麼條件?

丹·派克: 小學 25 人中有 75 人是一些早期投資者的次要學生,而不是員工。大約是5-75的帖子。

法布裡斯格林達: 好。那之後發生了什麼?

丹·派克: 在六個月內,我會說更少。因為在第一次董事會會議上,一切都是go-go-go。我拿到了一本叫「七種力量」的書,這是一本很棒的書。這基本上是關於競爭護城河和防禦能力的。然後我們開始構建,對吧。我們開始建設的步伐可能遠遠領先於我們的增長,但這就是我們需要做的。

預計,你知道的,基本上是 200% 的增長率。那是第一次董事會會議,然後說,嘿,看這是你的,你有 100 人,就像還有另外 100 人。只是,你知道的,去,去擴展。第二次董事會會議是,哇,哇,哇。

法布裡斯格林達: 嘿,順便說一句,首先你從使用資本的多少擴展到多少。

丹·派克: 我們在一年內從8700萬增加到了大約2億。

法布裡斯格林達: 是的,我是說 2 億。所以這已經是相當真實的規模了。

丹·派克: 是的,就像明年預計會有5、6億一樣。所以,這就像純粹的加速,但在下一次董事會會議和早期,也就是 2023 年初,這種裂縫開始顯現。如果你還記得的話,公開市場和所有電子商務股票都下跌了 95%。人們在挖溝。我認為每個 VC 都在那個夏天逃離了阿斯彭或義大利。那個夏天已經死了。就像那個夏天沒有人會接我的電話一樣。我們需要資金,我們認為我們可以籌集到這筆資金,因為情況很糟糕,但是,你知道,情況並沒有那麼糟糕。

到了秋天,情況開始變得非常糟糕。而且,你知道的,基本上如果沒有足夠的。

法布裡斯格林達: 你一個月花了多少錢來給人一種規模感?

丹·派克: 我們每個月要燒掉 500 萬美元。

Fabrice Grinda: 每月 500 萬。好。

丹·派克: 因此,我們構建了所有這些基礎設施以實現擴展。

所以,我們需要繼續這樣做,這有點像倉鼠輪。你知道,奇跡般的是,我們能夠在 2023 年 10 月獲得 9500 萬美元的 C 輪融資條款清單,這將使我們繼續走上這條軌道。但內心深處是什麼樣子的呢?四五周后,在我們本應完成交易之前,首席投資者打電話給我們說,嘿,看起來我們似乎已經沒有這種交易了。我們出去了。所以這是最後一根稻草,我認為這讓我們走上了一條真正健康的道路。我的意思是,在我當時。我當時正在全家度假,沒有地方可以打電話,所以我在浴室裡。

我記得很清楚。所以我們在浴室裡,我接到電話說,嘿,你看,對不起,好像我們不能再這樣做了。而我,我基本上立即與我的執行團隊通了電話,我們需要想出一些辦法。就像現在一樣,它是純粹的生存模式。

所以我們去了,那天我記得很清楚,那天是 2023 年 1 月 4 日。我們就像完全進入了生存模式。所以在裡面,我猜是 13 天。因此,在 1 月 17 日,我們執行了相當大的裁員,裁員 65%,這非常困難。

法布裡斯格林達: 那麼,從多少到多少呢?

丹·派克: 從我們的巔峰時期,350 人增加到87人。

法布裡斯格林達: 哇。幾周後。基本上。

丹·派克: 在一天內。

法布裡斯格林達: 在一天內。

丹·派克: 嗯,對不起,我們在 2023 年做了一輪,你知道,當時每個人都在 2023 年。那就像健康的一輪。那是減肥回合。是的。然後我們做了一個非常深的剪輯。我們,我們只裁員了兩次。

法布裡斯格林達: 你即興演奏的總分是什麼,65% 還是超過80%?

丹·派克: 第二個即興演奏是 65。它從350個增加到87個。

法布裡斯格林達: 好。

丹·派克: 並削減了三個市場。所以我們在五個市場,你知道的,削減到兩個核心市場,然後,當時重要的是盈利能力。生存和盈利能力。圍繞我們希望的獲利率設定一些非常明確的目標。

我們在這方面非常努力,在接下來的 12 個月里,或者我猜是 16 個月,讓我們的凈收入達到正值,這真的改變了我們的遊戲規則。

法布裡斯格林達: 讓我們談談兩件事。一個是收入下降了多少?因為顯然你有 2 億。

丹·派克: 是的。第二年,我們只,我們,我們下降到 1 75 人。是的,所以我們,我們沒有,我們,我們削減,我的意思是,我們早期的市場存在不成比例的燃燒量。右。

法布裡斯格林達: 好。

丹·派克: 所以我們剛剛推出了這些市場。他們沒有機會擴大規模。他們沒有時間成熟起來。因此,這些市場不成比例地燃燒,幸運的是,這再次使決定變得更容易。但我們只是,我們剛剛推出了這些市場。右。

法布裡斯格林達: 當你解僱了 75% 的人,而你只以某種方式收縮,你知道的,比如 10%,這真是太瘋狂了。

丹·派克: 是的。我們甚至在開始進入其中一些市場之前就已經從下面被剪掉了。

法布裡斯格林達: 是的,可能值得討論的是,你是如何生存的,因為你需要資金,你有充足的現金。是的。所以你通常會解僱所有人,但你也沒有更多的現金。因此,我們必須對公司進行徹底的資本重組。然後,完全改變了 Cap 的結構。

所以可能會告訴我們。

丹·派克: 所以我們在 2023 年夏天這樣做了。因此,我們進行了一輪相當懲罰性的降級,基本上將資金投入到業務中並清理了資本表。此時,有 9 家機構投資者。我認為這 9 支球隊中的 7 支球隊都將處於比那輪下滑之前更好的位置。而那些沒有的,我認為理解並且曾經是,感覺他們受到了公平的對待。我仍然保持著非常好的關係,每季度都會與他們通電話。但對很多人來說,這確實是一個及時的時刻。

法布裡斯格林達: 是的。所以,如果我沒記錯的話,如果你願意分享,那麼我認為,基本上是早期投資者。站起來。所以就像 Golden 和 FJ Labs 一樣

丹·派克: Canan 也大步向前。

法布裡斯格林達: 完全。我們就像,我們愛這家公司,我們愛 Dan。我們希望它能生存下去。因為可用的資金越多,但我們正在努力使其盈利,那麼資金量是多少?我想如果我沒記錯的話,我們做了 500 萬的投前估值。

丹·派克: 15 分,

法布裡斯格林達: 我們從 5 75 個洗劫了創始人,洗劫了創始人,籌集了 15、2000 萬,這是我獲得盈利所需的金額。

丹·派克: 是的。就是這樣,我們做到了這一點。這就是那個資本的目標。我們的凈收入為正。然後很快就結束了。這項業務的美妙之處在於,一旦你建立了基礎設施,我們的擴展能力就是,我不想說它很容易,但我的意思是,這有一個劇本。

右。

法布裡斯格林達: 您是否更改了定價中的任何內容來提供説明?比如你花了更少的錢買了這些車嗎?您是否以更高的價格出售它們並增加了獲利率?

丹·派克: 不,我們所做的根本是改變了我們的供應獲取管道,因此我們大部分是通過批發從拍賣中收購的,如果你仔細想想,這其中有幾層成本,還有一些人把手插在口袋裡拿走利潤。因此,您最終得到的是我們所謂的前端的非常微薄的餘量,即我們在汽車本身上實際製造的東西。因此,前端獲利率以及何時直接面向消費者。

並購買他們的汽車。您實際上可以提供更高的價格,但也可以消除很多這些成本。這也是一輛更好的車。因此,以更優惠的價格獲得更好的汽車。因此,我們能夠利用這些賽車,在那裡建立獲利率。然後,我們還能夠提供更好的後端專案產品,這些產品實際上是我們銷售的,就像我們沒有花很多時間銷售金融服務產品一樣。就像對消費者的保險和保修一樣,因為在那個時候,一切都與規模和速度有關。

法布裡斯格林達: 好。但你開始添加它。還有融資。

丹·派克: 從表面上看,我們是汽車銷售商和零售商。在幕後,我想說我們一半的業務是金融服務。

法布裡斯格林達: 好。那麼,您是什麼時候實現盈利的呢?那麼,在那之後的道路是什麼呢?

丹·派克: 2024年7月。

法布裡斯格林達: 是的。所以對我來說,我職業生涯中最難忘的時刻實際上不是我賣掉 OLX 或 Zingy 或其他任何東西的那一天。

實際上,這是我的第二家初創公司實現正現金流的那一天。在我連續四個月拖欠工資后,我就像負債十萬美元一樣,等等。我當時想,你是自己命運的主人。現在的未來,是的,你很安全,你的預設還活著。

丹·派克: 我的意思是,這就是這種神奇的轉變。

你知道,作為創始人兼首席執行官,世界的重量,有點像,我不會說是舉重,但肯定是減輕的,因為。你知道,當你每個月燃燒 5 到 600 萬美元時,那就是每天 200,000 美元。你知道,你醒來後會說,告訴自己,這家企業今天會在某個地方增加 200,000 美元的價值嗎?

而當時間站在你這邊時,當你開始賺錢時,這是一種很好的感覺。

法布裡斯格林達: 請告訴我們我們現在的情況。

丹·派克: 所以現在,我的意思是,我們已經證明瞭盈利能力。我們的目的是繼續以收支平衡的方式經營業務。

你知道,我們在燃燒大量資本時留下了很多疤痕組織。因此,我們非常有意識地圍繞略微領先於我們的增長設定目標,而不是像提前兩三年那樣,我認為如果你真的想一想,我們當時可能犯的一個錯誤是,我認為我們把目標定得太靠前了,規模太快了。

因此,現在我們圍繞增長做了一些更深思熟慮和有條不紊的工作,我認為這是健康的,而且資本效率更高。我們開拓市場的方式更加資本高效,我們加工和翻新汽車的方式也更加高效。

我們所做的一切都是靠武力來提高資本效率,因為我們不得不這樣做。我們有一個強制功能,迫使我們這樣做。但當我們今天坐在這裡時,我認為我們處於一個非常、更健康的擴展位置。在這一點上,你知道,即使你考慮到這些年,我們現在所處的位置,從五年前開始,我們已經以 100% 的複合年增長率增長了業務。

因此,增長仍然存在,但現在的盈利能力要強得多。

法布裡斯格林達: 您或多或少地提到或分享了您現在的規模

丹·派克: 是的,我們現在開始接近五億的收入。

法布裡斯格林達: 五億。好吧,所以你已經過了巔峰嗎?

丹·派克: 是的。

遠過了高峰。

法布裡斯格林達: 好。是的。這太神奇了。我想籌款環境可能正在改善,那麼,您認為這會有多大,比如加拿大的二手車市場有多大?這是一家價值 10 億美元的公司,這是一家價值 100 億美元的公司嗎?

比如說,這能有多大?

丹·派克: 我認為加拿大市場的獨特之處在於,你可以獲得更高的相對市場份額,因為它的競爭力不如美國。而且它更像是一個贏家通吃的大多數(如果不是所有類型的市場)。也許我很天真,但我認為這就是天空的極限。

你知道,我認為如果你把它代理到 Carvana 的話。你知道,加拿大市場佔 10%,而美國市場佔 10%,這對我們來說,終端退出價值達到 50 億。但是,因為我們以後可以圍繞購車旅程的許多其他組成部分,特別是圍繞金融服務,所以我們非常雄心勃勃。

我堅信這可能是我唯一的公司,或者我工作的最後一家公司

法布裡斯格林達: 你看,如果我不需要賣掉 OLX,我就不會賣掉它。就像我不想賣掉它一樣。一旦你在平臺上有了規模,你就可以不斷擴展並做越來越多的事情。

而且你已經處於一個強項位置,當你有規模時,喜歡多變數測試要容易得多。當你發佈時,VC 就像 N 等於 2 這樣的 AB 測試,AB 測試沒有任何意義。這就像隨機的。當你有數百萬的收入時,它實際上是可擴展的、可持續的,它是一個不斷擴展的絕佳平臺。

所以我可以,我完全讚揚這一點。我同意,如果你有一個很棒的平臺,那就繼續下去。

丹·派克: 是的。是的。所以這就是目標。我們拭目以待未來。我試圖停止預測事情,因為在過去的幾年裡,我已經拋出了一百萬次曲線球。

所以,但我認為今天,基礎很強大,團隊很棒,業務也很正常。

法布裡斯格林達: 我們有一個問題,如您所知,在下跌輪等情況下,您是如何防止被完全淘汰的,正如您所知,您仍然擁有足夠的股權,讓您感到有動力繼續前進?您如何看待稀釋?

丹·派克: 所以我們做了一些非常有趣的事情。因此,因為它是資本密集型的,所以需要存在這樣的數字,這樣我們才能有動力,你需要有動力去建設這個行業的人。

因此,我們在那一輪融資中談判了一個相當重要的管理層剝離。但我們真正做到了,所以 Steve 和我並沒有真正改變擁有權。但我們真的讓其他人的擁有權變得更好。我們,我們已經將公司減少到87家。在那裡,有很多偉大的人都投入其中。

部分標準是您對這項業務的投入和熱情如何?所以我們得到的是,核心團隊今天大部分仍然在這裡?我想說的是,也許有兩三個人從那個團隊中離開了。

但是,是的,這個核心團隊就在那裡,對大多數人來說,我們至少將他們的股權增加了一倍或三倍。

法布裡斯格林達: 了不起。看,這是一次令人難以置信的過山車之旅,對吧?

就像起起落落,再往後再往右,再到現在。你知道,儘管我猜像一些人一樣,巨集觀和地緣政治以及關稅等三位一體,但情況看起來相當樂觀。

幾個問題 瞭解你現在所知道的,你會做任何不同的事情嗎?

丹·派克: 我的意思是,你看,如果我有完整的事後諸葛亮,我會把那 100 個或那個 75 個趕走,你知道的,不要碰它,渡過風暴,而不是那麼快地擴大規模。我想,這就是我告訴自己的,讓自己晚上感覺好些。

法布裡斯格林達: 您的競爭對手是如何加注的?比如,那會是一個選擇嗎?因為當然,如果一個競爭對手加注並且正在消費,如果他們沒有加注,那麼可能很難做到這一點。這樣做更容易。

丹·派克: 嗯,他們剛剛在我們之前提出來,所以,是的。

法布裡斯格林達: 好。

丹·派克: 所以我們,我們同時籌集,你知道,他們在媒體上公佈了一億美元的數位。我們不知道這完全是債務還是股權,所以我們想,我們需要匹配它。而且有很多動態。我的意思是,這是一種激烈的、競爭性的動態。

法布裡斯格林達: 順便說一句,他們發生了什麼,他們就這樣死了。

丹·派克: 拯救我們的是,我認為我們行動起來了,我們的反應非常迅速。到 2023 年初,他們仍然保留著 750 人。所以,他們不是,他們比我們略大,但我們佔人口的三分之一。因此,他們基本上在 2023 年 3 月宣布破產。

法布裡斯格林達: 好。是的。不,我的意思是,這可能也會有很大説明。是的。競爭壓力下降,然後你就可以獲勝。

丹·派克: 是的。成為品類領導者有很多好處。我只是沒有完全理解我們當時有點像並肩作戰。

法布裡斯格林達: 所以這個類別有很多相似之處,你知道的。這些年來,尤其是在全球範圍內,就像你看英國有一家公司上市,我認為是 7 或 80 億英鎊。比如,100 億美元被稱為 Cazoo。就像他們中的許多人一樣,如果不是大多數的話,他們中的大多數人都失敗了。

那些失敗的那些怎麼了?您有何不同?那麼,有哪些人在做有趣的事情的例子呢?

丹·派克: 是的。我認為關鍵是,這也是很多人在廣播開始時再次暗示它的地方。有個陣營做完全垂直整合或輕資產,對吧?

就像,這是一個經典的 VC 事情,對吧?比如,你知道,我喜歡你正在做的事情,但你能不能多做一點輕資產?右?今天的贏家現在是那些擁有完全垂直整合的公司。Carvana 是贏家。他們現在的EBITDA獲利率為10%,市值回到了50、600億美元。股票從 3 美元和 60 美分回到現在的 300 美元。

所以,我的意思是,這對他們來說也是一個更大規模的反彈。但 Vroom 和美國的轉變,我們更關注基礎設施,而不是基礎設施,而更多地關注輕資產。因為這是一樣的,他們花了幾乎太多。他們在行銷和品牌上花費了大量資金,這很有説明,但您也需要該產品。

而產品的核心是車輛的品質。你知道,我認為澳大利亞的人們做得非常出色。他們在垂直整合方面採取了類似的心態。墨西哥的人們,Kavak,他們對那裡的市場有一些細微差別,但我認為他們現在也處於良好的發展軌道上。

但這就是核心。能夠控制翻新和翻新的成本對於這項業務來說非常重要。而這才是真正為客戶提供價值的是提供更優質車輛的能力。

法布裡斯格林達: 您是否看到相鄰類別中的有趣發展?

比如,帶上我的拖車,就像在美國看到的收藏車,甚至像 eBay 的 Caramel 集成一樣,以嘗試完成交易後。您對此有什麼看法嗎?

丹·派克: 是的,我認為有一些很好的單點解決方案可以改善消費者體驗。我認為我們解決這個問題的方法就是,是的,我想,我們想擁有一切。

我們希望端到端地擁有它,使其無縫銜接。為了做到這一點並使其真正無縫,您需要端到端地擁有它。否則,您將擁有這些類似的交互點。你知道,圍繞融資甚至保險的幾個例子。我們不是 P&C 保險公司。

那麼這意味著什麼呢?好吧,在加拿大,一旦你經歷了與我們一起獲得的這種奇妙的經歷,超級無縫,全數位化,你就會被踢出去,你被告知去和你的保險經紀人談談。你得把這輛新車登記好。這可能需要一天,可能需要三天。右。所以,這在我們的流程中放置了我們無法真正控制的摩擦點。你知道,最終我們希望能夠控制它。

法布裡斯格林達: 即使你不是做融資、保險等的人,是的,它也應該是一個 API。

丹·派克: 他們融入的地方。右。

法布裡斯格林達: 是的,沒錯。是的。它是集成的。他們獲得融資,獲得保險,獲得註冊,就像一切都完成了一樣。你只是交付汽車,他們可以去駕駛它。

丹·派克: 是的。我們不會在短期內承保汽車保險,但您知道,它應該如此。

無縫集成到我們的流程中,這樣您就不會被踢出去。

法布裡斯格林達: 有沒有辦法解決這個問題?

丹·派克: 是的。

法布裡斯格林達: 是 12 個月,還是 24 個月?是 36 歲嗎?

丹·派克: 可能是12到18歲。

法布裡斯格林達: 有人這樣做嗎?我不是說在加拿大,我是說全球。

丹·派克: 是的。當然,還有一種類似於嵌入式保險提供者的機構。但挑戰在於。

法布裡斯格林達: 是的。你的夥伴度假。

丹·派克: 不僅如此,如果你願意,如果只是一個報價,那麼客戶就會說,你知道,如果我不喜歡這個報價,他們就會責怪你。右?是的。

是的。因此,您希望提供多種報價,因此它確實變得更像一個經紀公司。所以這裡面有一些細微差別,但是的,肯定有一條通往這條路。

法布裡斯格林達: 所以你認為這是公開的,你會想,就像這條路是什麼?

丹·派克: 我們現在在未來三到四年內所走的道路是能夠讓我們在三到四年內上市。因此,我們是否這樣做是資本市場和私人可用資源的功能。如果 IPO 市場甚至開放怎麼辦?但我認為,在一個戰略收購者有限的世界里,你想為我們創造另一個選擇,那就是上市。

所以周圍的心態。每個人都應該能夠升級和成熟業務,在未來三到四年內,如果我們有選擇權,或者如果我們願意,而且這是正確的決定,那麼我們可以上市。

法布裡斯格林達: 關稅對您有什麼影響嗎?

因為,我的意思是,這些是二手車。他們在加拿大已經準備好了。他們不是從美國帶來的。

丹·派克: 它們將是下游影響。我對關稅持樂觀態度。我確實認為,我們最終會落入一個不會對消費者造成巨大成本的地方,因為我們在過去 60 年裡一直在圍繞汽車建立相當高效的全球供應鏈。

在一年、兩年甚至四年內解決這個問題並不容易。我認為 OEM 需要進行大量的規劃和決策,才能決定在任何地方建立工廠。印第安那波利斯或印第安那州或任何地方。所以我樂觀地認為,它不會像現在這樣糟糕。

然後是長期、短期,會有一些下游影響。如果新車的價格上漲,那麼需求就會開始轉向二手車,這給二手車帶來了價格壓力。因此,我們可能會看到其中的一些,但我們還沒有真正看到它。

法布裡斯格林達: 二手車價格是否有漏鬥變化?我的意思是,很明顯,它們在期間急劇上升。那是完全收縮的嗎?它們的貶值速度比以前更快,還是和以前一樣?

丹·派克: 是的,我們仍然,我認為我們仍然比疫情前的水準高出約 10% 到 15%,但汽車價格,好像你還記得被劫持了,我的意思是,美國和加拿大之間是不同的,但它們上漲了 20% 到 40%。

然後他們就下來了。我認為那裡發生的有趣現像是,很多幾年前買車的人現在他們的汽車有很多負資產,因為價格的下降幅度比平時要大。因此,你留下了很多消費者,他們的工具中有大量的負資產。

法布裡斯格林達: 我看到了電動汽車的影響,比如現在在您的平臺上銷售的二手車或電動汽車的百分比,從定價或任何角度來看,它們的行為與汽油車有什麼不同嗎?

丹·派克: 我的意思是,現在特斯拉的價格發生了一些有趣的波動。

主要是因為 Elon 一直在做一些事情,但我們的大部分,我想說我們大約 80% 的電動汽車庫存是特斯拉。好。在一定程度上反映了市場。我們大約 10% 到 12% 的汽車是電動汽車,反映了當今市場。加拿大的電動汽車基礎設施可能比加利福尼亞的建設要少,而且這裡的寒冷天氣有一些細微差別,使其不那麼受歡迎。

但我認為這種趨勢會繼續下去,技術會進步,續航里程會變得更好。採用率慢慢地繼續上升。

法布裡斯格林達: 好。從長遠來看,你有沒有想過什麼?就像讓你夜不能寐的事情一樣,我們是否已經進入了一個世界,世界上的 Waymo,你知道,它們是自動駕駛汽車,隨處可見,你不再需要擁有汽車。

比如,這是你甚至擔心的事情,還是像未來 20 年的科幻小說,因此不需要那麼擔心?

丹·派克: 我當時在舊金山開著一輛 Waymo。這太不可思議了。就像這太不可思議了。

法布裡斯格林達: 是的,這很棒。

丹·派克: 這是一款令人難以置信的產品。我認為汽車擁有權可能會發生變化。當技術變得更好並且成本下降時,通常會發生的情況是,消費者不是為大眾所用,而是只想為自己使用,對吧?所以,我想為自己買一輛 Waymo。

當它對消費者來說是合理且價格合理的時候。每個人都只想在他們的車庫裡有一輛 Waymo 汽車。當然,可能會有一個網路以與Uber相同的方式迴圈。但我認為汽車擁有量可能會下降,但擁有一輛車的基本需求是,我的意思是,你有孩子,喜歡坐在汽車座椅上進出,喜歡擔心後座上的 Cheerios。

比如,我讓我的孩子們打曲棍球,我認為消費者會希望繼續享受便利,但不必開車。所以我認為也許汽車會發生變化。但擁有權不一定會改變。我認為我們還有一堆基礎設施,可以提供説明,比如一個龐大的汽車網路。

所以我不知道它是否一定會讓我們夜不能寐,但如果你繼續進化並在生態系統的不同部分擁有足夠的鐵杆,你將能夠適應。

法布裡斯格林達: 我很震驚。這很有趣,就像我投資Uber時,我擔心,哦,自動駕駛會減少模式,等等。

就像 10 年前一樣,對吧?10 多年前。就像 2012 年或 13 年一樣。是的。我很震驚,在自動駕駛有意義的任何時候,它都會被放在一起。但現在,就像你去三藩市、奧斯丁或洛杉磯一樣,它就像突出、普遍,而且正在加速。

它會越來越多。所以這就是原因。是的,我,我考慮了一下,但就你的觀點而言,你知道,現在有三個孩子,我希望有第四個孩子,而不僅僅是狗、汽車座椅、玩具、尿布的未來。就像,這就是為什麼我需要雙向,比如,我需要一輛巨大的汽車。

現在市場上甚至沒有一輛適合我們的汽車。我有一個從酸輕到酸重的。

丹·派克: 我的意思是,也許你可能會少開它,因為有 Waymo 在開車,但你仍然會喜歡它,你仍然會擁有一輛。右?

法布裡斯格林達: 是的,這是有道理的。是的。

有什麼我們沒有涵蓋但應該涵蓋的嗎?

你有什麼想分享或提及的嗎?

丹·派克: 是的,我認為,我的意思是,在我過去的五年裡,我最欣賞的可能是團隊的一部分,以及與他人一起經歷困難的事情。當我在 VC 工作時,我認為我沒有花足夠的時間讓團隊勤奮。

你知道,你看看數位,你看看業務,但我的意思是,歸根結底,這一切都與執行有關,對吧?就像這樣,從商業模式的角度來看,我們正在做的事情不是新的或前沿的,就像 BPU 的參考,就像人們以前嘗試過這樣做一樣。

我認為團隊非常重要,隨著時間的推移,你必須與人們建立信任,這有多困難,有多像內訌,以及必須發生的政治動態和關係管理。我認為隨著時間的推移,這種情況會變得更好。所以,也許建議或收穫是,這是一個常態,永遠不會消失。

也許我認為這是理所當然的,現在我很欣賞擁有一個相互信任的優秀團隊是多麼重要,而且,這個團隊的戰鬥測試是多麼重要。我們的團隊現在經歷了我們正在經歷的事情,就像我一樣。你知道,我們有,有很大的信心。

我們有很多信心,比如,是的,當然,我們可能會被扔出一些曲線球,但我們會想辦法的。

法布裡斯格林達: 所以基本上,風險投資公司不應該只討厭創始人,他們不應該大張旗鼓。第二,我同意,如果就像你在戰壕里戰鬥一樣,你有過瀕死體驗,那些倖存下來的人,就像你被束縛一樣,你是你的戰友,你知道的,永遠相連。

丹·派克: 我的意思是,你會喜歡,你知道的,2010 年,無論哪一年,你都會坐下來,喝杯啤酒,你會,你會講述那些戰爭故事。就像那些人一樣,我的意思是,這對我來說就像是樂趣的一半。右。就像能夠講述這些故事一樣。因為這就是我們這樣做的原因。

右。

法布裡斯格林達: 完善。嗯,太棒了。

感謝您的加入。感謝所有關注我們的人,我們下一場見。謝謝。

丹·派克: 棒。

Dungeon Crawler Carl:混亂、指標和元幽默的驚人完美融合

你看,我沒想到會喜歡這本書。我在周末放鬆時拿起了 Dungeon Crawler Carl,以為這將是另一場一次性的 LitRPG 嬉戲。相反,我得到的是一場野蠻、聰明、奇異溫暖的冒險之旅,它的衝擊力遠遠超過了它的重量級。

前提非常荒謬——地球被重新利用成一個虐待狂的星際真人秀地牢爬行,我們的英雄卡爾(和他滑稽專橫的貓甜甜圈公主)是不幸的參賽者之一。但問題是:在血腥、混亂和揮舞電鋸的哥布林小醜(是的,這種情況發生了)之下,世界構建有一種無情的效率。它的聰明之處在於像初創公司一樣——遊戲化系統密不透風,激勵措施非常明確,進展迴圈令人上癮。

Carl 是那種我可以感同身受的不情願的創始人:成為領導者,不斷適應,從失敗中吸取教訓,並即時建立聯盟。他一開始並不是英雄。他通過快速反覆運算和拒絕放棄而成為一個人。敘述簡潔,殘酷有趣,充滿了讓我關心的時刻。我發現自己在想,如果 Elon Musk、Hunter S. Thompson 和 Terry Pratchett 在死藤水靜修後合著了一部地牢爬行者,那會是什麼樣子。

是文學嗎? 不。 它是否令人上癮,非常聰明,是我今年讀過的最有趣的東西之一? 絕對!

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