Fabrice Grinda

月: 2022年11月

2022 Holiday Gadget Gift Guide

It is that time of the year again, so I am sharing my recommendations for all gadget lovers of the world to be happy this holiday season. Note that the cover picture above is my Turks setup which includes the ASUS ROG Swift OLED PG48UQ, the Apple Watch Ultra, Ledger Nano X, HyperX Cloud Flight S, Herman Miller Embody Gaming Chair, Blue Yeti X, and earHero.

Computer Monitor: Asus ROG Swift OLED PG48UQ or PG42UQ

I have been a fan of OLED TVs since they first released with their deep blacks and extraordinary image quality. I pined for 4K OLED gaming monitors to be released. I even used a LG 48” TV as a monitor for a while but found it unwieldy and the glossy finish was too reflective for work. This is where the Asus ROG OLED PG48UQ and PG42UQ come into play. They are extraordinary. The image quality is second to none. The monitors are super-fast with 0.1ms grey-to-grey response time and overclockable 138Hz refresh rate. The special matte coating leads to less glare and fewer distractions. They are definitely the monitor to get. Note that both are identical, and you should get the one that fits your desk. If you have a very deep desk, get the 48”, otherwise get the 42”.

I also considered the Odyssey Ark 55” curved monitor, but for some reason did not love the curvature of the screen. Perhaps it was just too big relative to where I was sitting, but it did not feel comfortable. It’s also outrageously expensive at $2,799 vs. $1,499 and $1,399 for the ROG monitors. Note that I do not like ultrawide monitors with 21:9 or 32:9 formats like the Samsung Odyssey Neo G9 because I do not find them tall enough to be comfortable for work. Those typically come with a 1,440 vertical resolution. I much prefer the 16:9 format with 2,160 of vertical resolution. I would consider a curved ultrawide version of the ROG monitors, but only if they were as tall as their 16:9 counterparts with 2160 of vertical resolution (say 5,120 x 2,160 vs. the 5,120 x 1,440 of the Neo G9).

The best deal in 48” OLED monitors is the AORUS FO48U at $779. I did not play with it so cannot recommend it, but by all accounts, it’s a worthy alternative. Note that it has a glossy finish so would probably not be ideal in an office environment but would be great for gaming in a dark room. I use my monitors for both work and play and they need to function in bright rooms.

TV: LG C2 77-inch evo OLED TV

The LG C2 77-inch evo OLED TV is the best high-end TV for the money. The TV combines stunning picture quality with terrific gaming prowess. I prefer the C2 to the higher-end G2 as I can’t tell the difference between them. However, I prefer the C2 to the lower-end B2 especially with HDR as it gets brighter and highlights pop more. The C2 also has better gradient handling, resulting in less distracting banding. The 77” is currently on sale for $2,499 and the 65” for $1,699. Both are amazing buys and when it comes with TVs, bigger is better! However, the 83” sells for $3,999 and is not worth it.

Soundbar: Sonos Arc

It would be shame to have an amazing TV like the LG C2, without amazing sound. That’s where the Sonos Arc comes in. It’s a gorgeous soundbar offering premium surround sound without the need for supplementary speakers. It’s super easy to setup. It sounds incredible and it often feels like the sound is coming at you from all angles. I also do not think you need a subwoofer with the Arc as there is more than enough powerful bass to feel the on-screen explosions. It’s the perfect complement for your TV.

Projector: Epson EpiqVision Ultra LS800 Ultra Short-Throw Laser Projector

Two years ago, I recommended the Optoma CinemaX P2. Sadly, the salt and humidity in the air of Turks and Caicos killed it so I went projector shopping again. I ultimately settled on the Epson EpiqVision Ultra LS800. It’s amazing and a huge step up from the Optoma P2. It’s incredibly bright with 4,000 lumens (vs. 3,000). It can display images up to 150” (vs 120”). It has by far the shortest input lag of any projector in its class making it the only ultra-short-throw projector I would recommend for gaming. It’s super easy to setup. It has amazing sound with two full-range 5-watt speakers and a 10-watt subwoofer in a package that is essentially an integrated soundbar given the LS800’s width. In fact, it’s so good, I don’t use external speakers with it. It’s the ultra-short-throw projector to get.

Streaming Device: Apple TV 4K

Modern TVs like the LG C2 do not need a streaming device as it’s simpler to use the built-in apps especially since they now support Airplay. However, the Epson Ultra LS800 does not have a RJ-45 jack. In Turks I only have the VPN with a US IP address (to be able to watch US shows) on the wired network. As a result, I got the brand-new Apple TV 4K with Ethernet and 128Gb of storage and use it to stream on the Epson.

It’s expensive for what it is, but it’s the one of the best streaming devices on the market especially if you are used to Apple user interfaces and its ecosystem. The A15 Bionic chip makes it blisteringly quick which addresses one of my key criticisms of prior iterations.

If you prefer the Apple UX/UI and want a modern streaming device, you cannot go wrong with this one.

Notebook: LG Gram 17 Ultra-Slim PRO

I switched to the LG Gram 17 a few years ago to use when I travel, and I never looked back. It’s by far the lightest 17” notebook on the market at just over 3 pounds. The power adapter is exceedingly small and light. I regularly get over 10 hours per charge and feel like I never need to charge it.

My only gripes were that it was underpowered, but they addressed the issue with the 2022 version. It now comes with 32Gb of RAM, a 2TB SSD and a GeForce RTX 2050 graphics card. This is the notebook to get. Note that I do not game on it, as I have desktops with much more powerful graphics cards at my homes. I used to recommend gaming laptops, but they run ridiculously hot, the battery life is extremely limited (under 2 hours), and they are bulkier than I would like. However, if you want a notebook that you can game and work on there are great options from MSI and Asus.

Console: Xbox X & PS5

It was hard to recommend buying them until this year as they were both really hard to find and you had to massively overpay if you wanted them. Moreover, the lack of amazing new games did not make them a must buy. However, with the release of Elden Ring, it became imperative that I buy them as I prefer to play third person action role playing games (RPGs) on console than on PC. Luckily, this coincided with the consoles becoming more available.

If you can afford it, I would get both. The Xbox X is marginally more powerful and has slightly better graphics as a result. I also like the feel of the Xbox controller better in my hands. However, the PS5’s controller is objectively better and there are better first party games on the PS5 right now. I typically play games available on both consoles, like Call of Duty, on the Xbox. The exception is Elden Ring which for some reason looks marginally better on the PS5.

My biggest gripe remains the dearth of games I want to play on them. Once I finish a game, they gather dust for months while I await the release of the next game that interests me. Right now, I am about to play God of War Ragnarök which requires a PS5. I am eagerly awaiting the release of GTA 6, new Naughty Dog games, Starfield and many others, but who knows when they will release.

BTW do not allow cross-play with PC users when playing on console. A keyboard and mouse are just far more precise and it will ruin your gaming experience.

Video Games: Elden Ring & Age of Empires 4

I have a been a fan of real time strategy (RTS) games since the release of Dune 2 in 1992 and of the Age of Empires franchise specifically for 25 years. A year ago, Microsoft released Age of Empires IV. With much improved graphics and gameplay mechanics, I fell in love with the series all over again. It has been a lot of fun play online with my friends. Admittedly the game was not polished upon release and was missing many features. All of these have been addressed and the game is now well balanced and in a very good place. It’s the best RTS on the market right now and I encourage you to try it.

Likewise, I have been a huge fan of From Software Souls games for a long time. However, their linear design and extremely challenging difficulty level made it hard to recommend to normies. Elden Ring changes that. By combining the Souls formula with a gorgeous open world, From Software has created a masterpiece. If a boss is too strong for you, you can just bypass it and explore the rest of the world until you leveled up enough to take it on. The lore and story are riveting, and as per usual you are not spoon-fed anything. You get to figure out the story and decide where to go and what to do next. Expect to die many times as you “git gud,” but the sense of accomplishment from finally defeating that foe will make it all worth it. The multiplayer system, while still clunky, is the best in the series, and I was able to essentially play the entire game in co-op with my brother which was super fun. Note if you are new to Souls games I would recommend starting as an Astrologer which is the easiest class to play. We played through the game in about 100 hours and there are hundreds of other hours of content awaiting us. I can’t wait for the DLC to come out.

Fitness Tracker: Apple Watch Ultra

I have been part of the Fitbit ecosystem for years. I used the Fitbit Charge 5 since it came out (and the Charge 4 and 3 before then). I love the Charge 5 because of its simplicity and 7-day battery life. However, what has been annoying me continuously is that they keep breaking on me. I break at least 5 per year. I suspect that they do not like all the water I subject them to through kite surfing, and my daily hot tub and hot bath ritual. Alternatively, perhaps it does not like my adventures in the extreme cold. Fitbit replaces them for free every time, but it’s a pain in the neck to deal with..

When my Fitbit Charge 5 broke (yet again) a few weeks ago, I bit the bullet and bought the Apple Watch Ultra. I don’t love that the battery only lasts a day, so I charge it while I am working at my computer to make sure it has enough battery life to track my sleep. So far, I am very happy with it. It feels very sturdy, albeit a bit heavy, but the fitness, sleep and health tracking functions are second to none.

I will be putting it through its paces with lots of kitesurfing, extreme skiing, and my upcoming trip to Antarctica. Based on what I have seen so far, I think it’s going to be the watch for me for a very long time, or at least until the next version comes out 😉

Ride On Remote Controlled Car: 4WD Can-Am from CarTots

This is the perfect gadget for anyone with kids ages 0-5. François absolutely adores being driven in them. I bought a few of these for New York, Turks, and Revelstoke. You can fit two kids in them. You can drive them yourself with the remote, or when they are old enough, they can drive themselves with the functioning gas pedal and steering wheel.

The 4WD Can-Am is by far the best car I tested. It’s the most robust and can handle difficult terrain. I drove it on gravel and sand uphill and downhill with no issues. You can play music on it, and it has two batteries giving it the best battery life of the cars in its class.

With one of these, your progeny will be the cool kid on the block.

Crypto: Ledger Nano X

The downfall of FTX has strengthened the notion of “not your keys, not your coins” and the purpose and viability of DeFi in general. Most people should just buy and hold some BTC or ETH on Coinbase which is a regulated exchange. However, if you are more sophisticated, I would highly recommend you do self-custody with a Nano Ledger X.

I won’t lie that it’s a pain to setup. It’s an even bigger pain to use as you need to re-authenticate yourself continuously even with the longest setting, and you must manually verify every transaction, but that’s the entire point: better safe than sorry.

Note that I would only recommend this for technically savvy users who are doing more than just holding BTC and ETH on Coinbase which I consider to be an easier, safe, and viable alternative. However, at this point, I would NOT hold any coins on any centralized exchanges unless they are regulated and audited. I would not even trust Binance, though I have no indications they have done anything wrong with customer deposits.

Also note that you need to be extremely thoughtful about what you do with your recovery phrase in case you lose your Ledger. I keep mine split between different safes at different locations with different people who can access each of them, not that this matters much at this point as I sold most of my crypto between November 2021 and January 2022.

Wireless Headphones: HyperX Cloud II Wireless

I have been a fan of HyperX headphones for a very long time. They are incredibly comfortable, the sound quality is amazing, they block out external noises effectively and most importantly for me the microphone is noise cancelling allowing you to be able to Zoom from noisy environments without anyone on the call noticing. I recently upgraded all my headphones to the wireless version because I like to walk around during calls as I feel the blood flowing through my brain allows me to think better, not to mention it’s healthier. At my desk I use the Cloud II Wireless. I like that it’s USB-C and love the feel on my ears.

I travel with the HyperX Cloud Flight S because you can rotate the earcups which allows the headset to fit better in my eBags Pro Slim Laptop Backpack.

My only gripe with them is that they don’t support Bluetooth. You must use their USB dongle which works on PCs and the PS5. However, on my iPhone, I must connect the dongle to a lightning to USB connector, which works, but is far from ideal.

Chair: Herman Miller Embody Gaming Chair

I have been a huge fan of Herman Miller chairs, starting with the Aeron, before switching to the Embody years ago because I found it more comfortable. It’s an amazing chair and I love the gaming trim. It’s currently on sale on sale so I bought a few for every place I live and work in.

Streaming Microphone: Blue Yeti X

As I embarked on my Playing with Unicorns journey, I tested numerous microphones and headphones. Ultimately, I settled on the Blue Yeti X. The sound quality is excellent, and it is easy to setup and install.

Streaming Earphones: earHero

The earHero earphones are a great complement for the Blue Yeti X. They are invisible. No one can see you are wearing them, and they allow you to avoid noise pollution from your speakers into the microphone.

冬がやってくる！

このところ、私はマクロ的なことをよく考えている。 マクロがミクロに勝る時期もある。 そのような時、すべての資産クラスは、高揚の瞬間に上昇する途中で1に相関する。 デューデリジェンスは窓の外に置かれ、市場は素晴らしい企業とポンコツ企業を区別しない。 同様に、すべての資産クラスは、不況時に下落する過程で1に相関する。 市場は赤ん坊を風呂の水と一緒に捨ててしまう。

この1年半、私たちはそのような時代を生きてきた。 2021年2月、私は『エブリシング・バブルへようこそ』の中で、積極的な拡張的財政政策によるマイナス実質金利があらゆる資産クラスでバブルを煽り、過大評価された資産を積極的に売却すべき時だと主張した。 今年3月、私は『The Great Unknown』の中で、人々は世界経済のリスクを著しく過小評価していると主張した。 それ以来、そのリスクは高まる一方だ。

@20vc_tok

#1 angel investor in the world #FabriceGrinda explains why #recession is so likely #2022 #economy #investor #investors #FJLabs #20VC #HarryStebbings

♬ Violin – Grooving Gecko

世界経済について弱気であることは、今のところコンセンサスとなっている。 いつものように、私は逆張りだが、今回は、コンセンサスが十分に弱気でないというのが私の逆張りだ。 ほとんどの人は、2023年に何らかの形でソフトランディングするか、穏やかな景気後退になることを想定している。 私たちは、すべての希望を失った絶望の谷にはほど遠い。 予想より悪いニュースが少なければ、市場は下落する。 先週、消費者物価指数（CPI）が7.9％ではなく7.7％と発表されたときや、金利上昇率が鈍化する可能性があるというニュースを人々が高揚感を持って迎えたときに、このようなことが起こった。 インフレ率は依然として高止まりしており、上昇率が低下しても金利は上昇し続けている（例えば、2次導関数がマイナスでも1次導関数はまだプラス）。

私が弱気になっている要因は9つある。

1.金利は、人々が予想する以上に長期にわたって上昇する可能性がある。

9月20-21日のFOMCまでは、FF金利のピークが3.5%になるとの見方が強かった。 現在は3.75％から4％で、2023年に4.6％でピークを迎え、その後再び低下すると予想されている。

今年の初め、私は金利が5％を超えた場合のことを誰も考えていないと心配した。 これは、昨年からコンセンサスが繰り返し間違っている分野のひとつだ。

インフレ率は依然高止まりしており、予想されるインフレ率の上昇に合わせて労働者が賃上げを要求し始めるにつれて構造化する兆しを見せているため、金利は人々の予想以上に長期にわたって大幅に上昇せざるを得ないかもしれない。 最終的に金利が5.5％以上に達し、2024年以降も高止まりしても驚かない。

2.ドル高が新興国の政府債務危機を引き起こす

ほとんどの新興市場は、債務の価格はドル建てだが、税収は自国通貨建てである。 米国の金利上昇は、非常に高いインフレと、しばしば自ら招いた経済的過ちと相まって、ドルを劇的に上昇させている。

この増加は、多くの新興市場を不安定な立場に追い込んでいる。 スリランカはすでに債務不履行に陥っている。 ガーナとパキスタンがその次で、その他多くの国々がプレッシャーにさらされているようだ。

3.ガソリン価格の高騰がドイツの景気後退を招く

ここ数十年のドイツのビジネスモデルは、安価なロシアのガスを使って何かを作り、それを中国に輸出することだった。 このビジネスモデルは双方から圧力を受けている。 ロシアがノルドストリームを停止させれば、ドイツは人口を暖め、ガスに依存する重工業の燃料となる十分なガスを失うことになるかもしれない。 配給と物価上昇により、ドイツでは2023年に景気後退が起こり、冬の期間と厳しさによってGDPが0.4％から7.9％縮小すると予測されている。

4.新たなユーロ危機が迫っている

ギリシャは2007年から2008年にかけての金融危機の余波でユーロを崩壊させかけた。 多くの欧州諸国、特にPIGS（ポルトガル、イタリア、ギリシャ、スペイン）の財政状況は、当時よりも大幅に悪化している。

債務レベルは、これらの国が債務超過に陥るには、借入コストの大幅な増加は必要ないほどである。 最大のリスクは、債務残高の対GDP比が150％を超え、経済規模がギリシャの10倍もあるイタリアだろう。 さらに悪いことに、ドイツは極右のナショナリスト政権を選出した。

危機が起これば、ヨーロッパはユーロを維持するためにどんなことでもするだろう。

5.銀行危機が近づいている

今年の初め、私はクレディ・スイス、そしておそらくUBSがデフォルトに陥り、スイスが崩壊する可能性があると予測した。 これらの銀行は、アルケゴス、グリーンシル、ルッキン・コーヒーなど、不良債権をめぐる最近の国際的大問題の震源地となっている。 外貨建てローンは、それだけでスイスのGDPの400%に達する。 公式には、スイスの銀行システム資産はGDPの4.7倍だが、これはオフバランス資産を除いたものである。 これらを含めると、～9.5x10xという比率がより正確であることを示唆している。

@20vc_tok

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♬ Suspense, horror, piano and music box – takaya

それ以来、市場はクレディ・スイスの弱点を認識するようになった。

欧州の銀行は総じて弱い立場にある。 彼らは多くの国債を所有しており、PIGSの債務再編の可能性にさらされることになる。 担保の少ない住宅ローンを超低金利で発行してきたため、金利上昇や不動産価格の下落に苦しむことになる。

しかも、米国のように大きな埋蔵量を築いてきたわけではない。 本格的な信用危機が起きれば、銀行がカウンターパーティ・リスクを回避しようとして銀行システム全体が機能停止し、大規模な金融危機に陥ることは想像に難くない。

6.不動産価格の下落

他の資産クラスと同様、不動産も過去10年間で価格が大幅に上昇した。 不動産は現在、米国内だけでなく世界中のほとんどの場所で過大評価されている。

他の資産クラスとは対照的に、不動産価格は、住宅ローン金利が過去1年半で2.5％から7％に上昇したにもかかわらず、まだ調整されていない。 売り手が価格予想を調整するには時間がかかるため、まず流動性が枯渇し、次に価格が下落する。

テキサス州オースティンのような都市では、この3ヶ月ですでに7％以上も価格が下落している。 今後24ヶ月の間に、全米で15％以上の下落が見られたとしても、私は驚かない。

これは世界的に起こっていることだ。 ニュージーランドの住宅価格は過去11ヶ月で10.9％下落している。 スウェーデンの住宅価格はピーク時から20％下落すると予想されている。 ほとんどの消費者が変動金利の住宅ローンを組んでいるため、大幅な金利上昇にさらされている。

7.ウクライナとロシアで紛争が続けば、穀物、ガス、石油価格は高止まりするだろう。

紛争に終わりは見えない。 穀物、ガス、石油の価格が高止まりしている間は、金利水準に関係なくインフレは高止まりするだろう。

これは、紛争中に戦術核が使用された場合に何が起こるかを考慮に入れていない。

8.中国はもはや経済成長とディスインフレの牽引車ではない

何十年もの間、中国は世界経済の成長とディスインフレーションの原動力のひとつだった。 中国が低コストで大規模な生産を可能にしたことで、世界は大きな恩恵を受け、インフレを抑えることができた。

これはもはや真実ではない。 習近平の無能な中国経済管理は、ゼロコビト政策、反テクノロジー規制、そして一般的に反資本主義的な政策によって、国内の経済成長を押しつぶした。

さらに、彼の独裁的な政策は、中国と欧米の切り離しとサプライチェーンの非統合をもたらしている。 このようなサプライチェーンがインド、インドネシア、メキシコ、あるいは陸上へと移動する過程で、世界は過去30年間に恩恵を受けた専門化と規模の経済を失い、インフレに陥っている。

明るい面としては、ほとんどの軍事専門家が、中国は今後5年間は台湾を侵略するための水陸両用能力を持たないだろうと指摘している。 この地政学的なダモクレスの剣はいまだ世界経済を覆っているが、清算の日はまだ来ていないように感じられる。

9.構造的に高い地政学的リスク

冷戦後のエンタントは崩壊しつつある。 われわれは、西側諸国が中国、ロシア、イラン、北朝鮮に対抗する新たな冷戦に突入している。 ウクライナ紛争は、このダイナミズムを鮮明にしている。 ロシアはイラン製の無人機や北朝鮮製の大砲で戦っており、中国の習近平は国連や世界の舞台でプーチンの後ろ盾となっている。

この新たな冷戦は、さまざまな形でひどい結果をもたらす可能性がある：

  • 核紛争、ダーティーボム、ウクライナの原子力発電所の事故。
  • 台湾での戦争
  • 欧米のインフラに対するサイバー攻撃の激化。
  • 欧米の民主主義を不安定化させるためのテクノロジーの利用。例えば、アメリカにおけるロシアや中国の選挙トローリング。

こうしたことはすべて、世界を安定した場所ではなくし、法の支配を侵食し、壊滅的な左肩下がりの結果をもたらすリスクを増大させる。

結論

これら9つの要因のどれか1つでもあれば、世界同時不況を引き起こすのに十分だろう。 私が心配しているのは、これらすべてが同時に起きていることであり、2007年から2008年にかけての大不況の再来を示唆していることだ。

私は通常、この部屋で最も楽観的な人間だが、これほど弱気になったのは2006年以来だ。 私はまだ確率論的に考えているが、今は深刻な景気後退の確率が穏やかな景気後退の確率を上回ると考えている。

完結させるために、より楽観的な結果に向けて確率の重さを再評価させるような事柄を挙げる価値がある。 ウクライナとロシアの紛争が確実に終結し、インフレが落ち着けば、私はもっと悲観的になるだろう。 同様に、中国は2023年に、コビド・ルールを微調整し、住宅暴落に対処することで、嬉しい驚きをもたらす可能性を秘めている。

どうすべきか

高インフレにもかかわらず、私はまだ妥当な価格の資産を売却するか、弱気相場が起きたときに売却して米ドルの手元資金を蓄え、来るべき危機にデフレ価格で投資するつもりだ。 万が一、私の読みが間違っていたとしても、資産価格は回復していないだろう。 私が市場、特にリスク資産に再参入するのは、金利が再び低下し始めたときだ。

しかし、もし私の考えが正しければ、ほとんどの資産クラスが非常に興味深いものになり、中でもディストレスト資産は特に魅力的なものになるだろう。 これは2008年から2009年以来の本格的な苦境サイクルとなる。 私は、ディストレスト債、不動産、そして暗号にも多くのチャンスがあると期待している。

このルールの例外は、不動産に超低金利の30年固定住宅ローンを組んでいる場合だ。 この場合、たとえ価格が15～20％下落しても、不動産を持ち続けた方が得策である。現在の住宅ローン金利7％では、支払っていた金利の低さにもよるが、不動産を購入する能力が最大50％損なわれてしまうからだ。 さらに、インフレ率は現在、あなたが支払っている金利を上回っており、実質的な債務負担は減少している。

また、不況で職を失った場合に備えて、年間支出を減らして蓄えを作っておく。 カードローンなど変動金利の高利ローンはすべて返済し、低利ローンは残す。

歴史はマクロに勝る

その間、今投資すべきは、アーリーステージの民間ハイテク新興企業だけだ。 アーリーステージのバリュエーションは妥当である。 創業者たちはユニット経済に注目している。 少なくとも2年間は市場に出す必要がないよう、キャッシュバーンを制限している。 新興企業は顧客獲得コストが低く、競争相手も少ない。 退場は過去数年よりも遅れ、退場倍率は下がるだろうが、これは参入価格の低下と、勝者がカテゴリー全体を制するという事実によって補われるはずだ。

これらの新興企業にとって重要なマクロは、現在の環境ではなく、彼らがエグジットを求める6～8年後のマクロである。 今のところ重要なのは、彼らが十分な資金を調達し、次の資金調達に十分な成長を遂げることだ。

過去10年間で最も優れたスタートアップへの投資は、2008年から2011年の間に行われた（Uber、Airbnb、Whatsapp、Instagram）。

長い目で見れば、歴史はマクロに勝る。 私は世界と経済の将来について極めて楽観的であり続けている。 1950年以降、11回の景気後退は2ヵ月から18ヵ月で、平均は10ヵ月であった。 我々はここから抜け出せるだろう。 さらに、一歩引いてみれば、過去200年間は、数々の戦争や不況にもかかわらず、技術進歩や技術革新が人類の状況を改善してきた歴史でもある。

@20vc_tok

What trends break through recessions? #recessionproof #futureproof #FabriceGrinda #techtrends #technology #macroeconomics #FJLabs #HarryStebbings #20VC #techhistory #futureinvestements

♬ Stories 2 – Danilo Stankovic

テクノロジーのおかげで、欧米の一般家庭はかつての王たちが想像もできなかったような質の高い生活を手に入れた。 規模の経済、ネットワーク効果、知識と製造における正のフィードバックループ（学習曲線とも呼ばれる）、そして可能な限り最大の市場に対応し、可能な限り大規模に世界に影響を与えたいという起業家の願望により、新技術は急速に民主化される。

これにより、結果の平等性が大幅に向上した。 100年前、バカンスに行き、交通手段を持ち、屋内の水道を使い、電気を使っていたのは金持ちだけだった。 今日、欧米ではほとんどの人が電気を持ち、車を持ち、コンピューターを持ち、スマートフォンを持っている。 ほとんどの人が休暇に行き、飛行機に乗る余裕がある。 数時間で地球の裏側まで行けること、ポケットの中で人類の知識の総体にアクセスできること、さらに無料のグローバル・ビデオ通信が可能であることを、私たちは当たり前のことだと思っている。 スマートフォンを持つインドの貧しい農民は、わずか30年前のアメリカ大統領よりも情報や通信にアクセスできる。 これらは驚くべき偉業だ。

これだけの進歩にもかかわらず、私たちはまだテクノロジー革命のごく初期段階にいる。 公共サービス、医療、教育など、経済の最大部門はまだデジタル化されていない。 ほとんどのサプライチェーンはオフラインのままだ。 デジタル化によって効率化が進み、デフレ脱却につながる。

FJラボでは、気候変動、機会の不平等、身体的・精神的健康の危機といった21世紀の問題に取り組む多くの素晴らしい創設者たちに出会っている。

マクロの茶葉を正しく読み、2021年に後期段階と暗号のポジションをできる限り売却した結果、私たちは資金の25％しか投入していないキャッシュリッチなポジションにいることに気づいた。 逆張り主義者として、私たちは現在、資産の軽いビジネスに極めて積極的に投資している。そして、より良い明日の世界、機会の平等な世界、社会的意識が高く環境的に持続可能な豊かな世界を築く手助けをする立場にあることを、非常に光栄に思っている。

これからの数年間は厳しいものになるだろうが、今が最高のチャンスだ。

Investing in the things that build our world

By Matias Barbero and Fabrice Grinda

Those of us building and investing in tech spend most of our time thinking about the future. We ponder the impossible, the cutting edge, even the esoteric: software, artificial intelligence, crypto, asset-light services delivered through digital apps. Mars and outer space might often represent a larger share of one’s daily musings than dull terrestrial matters. Yet here we are. We live on planet Earth. We inhabit the physical world, at least for now! Almost everything we do in our daily lives involves – directly or indirectly – tangible materials, machinery, chemicals, etc. We want to push the boundaries of how our world currently works by digitizing legacy industries and making them more efficient. All of this is deflationary, making goods cheaper for everybody, which in turn is inclusionary, aligning with our overarching purpose as investors.

The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed. That’s true for different industries, as it is for different countries around the globe. Consumer marketplaces have a huge head start over their B2B counterparts, for example. There are also varying levels of tech adoption across geographies. B2B marketplaces have been at the core of FJ Labs’ thesis in recent years and are one of the best tools with which entrepreneurs can take on the challenges and limitations present in the physical realm.

Within our B2B marketplace thesis, we focus on many different verticals, including staffing, FMCG, wholesale commerce, and others. Today we want to zoom into one of the categories: marketplaces dealing inputs and raw materials, or put differently, the things that build our physical world. This excludes other very compelling B2B marketplace categories such as staffing and labor, food and beverages, services, logistics, and many others.

Let’s double click on the focus of this post: inputs and raw materials. They all deal with physical components and help build our world, in the most literal sense. Under this definition, some of what we consider “inputs” could be deemed by others as “outputs” too, but for today’s purpose we view things like precision parts and heavy machinery as key “inputs” in the value chain that build the most prevalent things in our world.

We could look at this thesis from two different dimensions (see table below): A. Across different categories such as raw materials, precision parts, or heavy machinery, and B. Across different verticals like construction, agriculture, and many others. Note that through this lens Boom & Bucket, for instance, belongs both to the ‘heavy machinery’ category and the ‘construction’ vertical.

Let’s use the “raw materials” category as an example. Besides steel and chemicals, there could also be marketplaces for concrete, sand and gravel, minerals, among others. There are still many other companies to be built in each category and across verticals. We’re excited to see the creativity with which entrepreneurs tackle each of these.

We will cover two companies that are disrupting their respective industries: Reibus and Knowde. These are just two case studies we’ll be using today to highlight and layout important points within this broader thesis, but we see lots of opportunities ahead and we’ll conclude with some insights and comments for entrepreneurs to consider when exploring them.

My Chemical Romance

The chemical industry is ~$5 trillion in size and supports roughly 25% of the world’s GPD. The vast majority of the chemicals manufactured are used to make every physical product we love. If you’re reading this from an iPhone, if you’re wearing your favorite Nike’s today, or if you’re enjoying your midday salad, all roads will lead to chemicals in some way or another.

You would think that such an important industry would be supported by the latest technology, with streamlined and efficient internal processes to ensure a key layer in the world’s supply chain runs smoothly. But stakeholders in the chemical industry are operating the same way they did 100 years ago: sellers are offline and have not caught up with ecommerce advances, the buying process is extremely inefficient with transactions done over phone calls and emails, and product information is ridiculously opaque, lost in static pdf documents and a fragmented supply base.

Our portfolio company Knowde is out to solve this by bringing the entire buying experience online. They are building a Shopify and Amazon hybrid model whereby sellers can create their online storefronts with ecommerce, payments, and fulfilment capabilities while aggregating the collective supply under the Knowde umbrella so buyers can have a one-stop-shop for their chemicals.

There are different tactical ways in which a B2B marketplace can go about their go-to-market strategy; Knowde chose to start by tackling the opacity of the chemicals market through a relentless focus on search and discovery.

In practice, this means laying the groundwork of what will later become a fully online transactional marketplace. Until there’s enough liquidity on the supply side to ensure smooth transactions, the initial business model is predominantly based on storefronts monetized through SaaS in lieu of the traditional marketplace take rate.

This hyper-focus is yielding impressive results for Knowde as they are currently adding around 5 new suppliers per day (!) to their platform. To put matters into perspective, there are ~15k total global sellers and ~8k of them already have a live storefront with Knowde. This is roughly half of the world’s supply in one platform. Once they become the de facto industry destination for suppliers, there’s a clear path to keep upgrading key accounts into paid subscriptions and ultimately enabling online transactions, among many other value-added services.

Pedal to the Metal

We can’t have a proper conversation about the things that build our world without a word on steel. This raw material is as prevalent as it gets. From forks and knives to NYC’s skyscrapers; from refrigerators and washing machines to cargo ships cruising around the world. Since the late 19th century, steel has become a synonym for our modern infrastructure.

Manufacturers and distributors transact steel (think sheets, coils, bars coming out of steel mills) with OEMs who then use it to manufacture components and end products.

Another trillion-dollar global industry (starting to see the common appeal here?) fraught with inefficiencies and lack of innovation. There are structural issues coming from decades of stale and offline processes, exacerbated by logistical headaches proper of a heavy product that is expensive to move.

Reibus, one of FJ’s portfolio companies in this category, is a B2B marketplace servicing the industrial metals industry (mainly steel and aluminum) with purpose-built features for both buyers and sellers. What does this mean concretely? They provide much more than just a matching platform: Reibus embeds fintech (financing, payment options, etc.) and logistics capabilities (digital brokerage, shipment dashboard, etc.). They are a heavily managed SaaS-enabled marketplace.

Industry stakeholders were quick to adopt Reibus’ hands-on marketplace. Founded in 2018, Reibus has scaled in-platform transactions to several hundred million in annual GMV, with plenty of room to grow as they are still a tiny fraction of the offline market.

Building inputs & raw materials B2B marketplaces

We’re truly excited about this opportunity to invest in the things that build our world and think there are many unexplored avenues for future entrepreneurs to start new B2B marketplaces aligned with this input & raw materials thesis. As discussed at the beginning of this post, there are countless areas to explore and we see a lots of openings across both categories and verticals, and even geographic arbitrage plays.

It’s important to bear in mind, though, that not every industry will be suited for a marketplace model, and that certain conditions and core strengths will play an important role in the success of these ventures.

  1. Founder-market-fit matters: B2B marketplaces benefit from having at least one founder who is a true industry insider. They lived through the pain points in the industry and have been deeply frustrated by them. They would ideally combine this first-hand industry knowledge with a co-founder and/or founding team member that could think from first principles on how to best design frameworks to dramatically improve the current experience. They also have the credibility to convince existing players to change their processes. Just to name some examples, John Armstrong, Reibus’ CEO, had bought $1bn+ of materials before starting his tech entrepreneurial journey, and Knowde’s CEO, Ali Amin-Javaheri, spent 10+ years working for ChemPoint, an incumbent in the space he began to disrupt right after he left.
  2. Marketplace dynamics: Ask yourself if the buyer and seller base is fragmented enough. This is true for most marketplaces but especially true in B2B where many verticals are concentrated on the supply side. The more concentrated the industry, the harder it is to have a meaningful take rate. In fact, you may be merely a distributor for a few incumbents rather than a real marketplace if the market is concentrated enough. The incentive and easiness to circumvent your platform would also be higher.  
  3. Find your unlock: Aggregation is often not sufficient. The platform should quickly focus on value-added services to create strong value propositions for both supply and demand. Founders need to figure out which specific services or features will unlock the greatest amount of liquidity for the marketplace. For Knowde, it was solving discovery and price opacity with information locked into siloed pdfs. For Reibus, it was offering financing and logistics services.
  4. Different paths to start monetizing: Charging a take rate on each transaction is the classic way a marketplace can begin to generate revenue, but it shouldn’t necessarily be the first choice in the monetization toolkit, and it’s certainly not the only one. In some cases, you cannot charge a take rate right away and must find alternatives. Reibus, which leverages real material pricing in commodities to facilitate their RFQ process, was able to have a take rate from the get-go, but that would not have worked for Knowde, which needed to bring discovery online first, hence a SaaS business model made more sense in the beginning.
  5. Juice up the blended take rate: It’s often hard to take more than 1-3% in B2B marketplaces. As a result, they may also monetize through SaaS subscription or listing fees instead of, or in addition to a take rate. Moreover, revenues are usually complemented by offering and monetizing additional services: advertising/placement, financing, insurance, logistics are all options. Once network effects kick in, a mix of business models can create a multiplier effect on net revenues. Many end up being able to increase their blended revenues to 10% of GMV as a result of the monetization diversity.
  6. Geographic arbitrage: For certain businesses, you can bring an idea from one country to another. This arbitrage is not always going to be possible in B2B marketplaces for inputs and raw materials as some of the markets are truly global in nature, likely leading to global winners. Does this mean that there couldn’t be an “X model for Y country” play? No, but it’s less obvious than with other categories within the B2B marketplace realm (e.g., FMCG products, fresh food, labor, etc.). This is driven by how local the supply is, how transportable the good is, and the extent to which the price is set locally. The market for oil for instance is global – with a fungible, interchangeable commodity that can be easily transported and has a global price. Natural gas on the other hand is local, with prices that vary by region based on local supply and market conditions suggesting that regional players can emerge. That said, even if dealing with mostly global supply, startups in other regions might have a window of opportunity to focus on local differentiated supply, especially on the long tail, and compete before potentially stepping into someone else’s shoes.

Inputs & raw materials: investing in the things that build our world

Marketplaces have had many evolutions over the years. B2B marketplaces are now in their infancy but poised to catch up with the digitalization of their B2C counterparts. As a result, as counter intuitive as it sounds, we believe that many of the best opportunities lie in forgotten old industries.

We’ve been actively investing in the inputs and raw materials category and looking forward to meeting entrepreneurs thinking about these big challenges with deep industry knowledge and innovative approaches. The future of the things that build our world is only getting started.

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