Fabrice Grinda

月度归档： 2022 年 11 月

2022 Holiday Gadget Gift Guide

It is that time of the year again, so I am sharing my recommendations for all gadget lovers of the world to be happy this holiday season. Note that the cover picture above is my Turks setup which includes the ASUS ROG Swift OLED PG48UQ, the Apple Watch Ultra, Ledger Nano X, HyperX Cloud Flight S, Herman Miller Embody Gaming Chair, Blue Yeti X, and earHero.

Computer Monitor: Asus ROG Swift OLED PG48UQ or PG42UQ

I have been a fan of OLED TVs since they first released with their deep blacks and extraordinary image quality. I pined for 4K OLED gaming monitors to be released. I even used a LG 48” TV as a monitor for a while but found it unwieldy and the glossy finish was too reflective for work. This is where the Asus ROG OLED PG48UQ and PG42UQ come into play. They are extraordinary. The image quality is second to none. The monitors are super-fast with 0.1ms grey-to-grey response time and overclockable 138Hz refresh rate. The special matte coating leads to less glare and fewer distractions. They are definitely the monitor to get. Note that both are identical, and you should get the one that fits your desk. If you have a very deep desk, get the 48”, otherwise get the 42”.

I also considered the Odyssey Ark 55” curved monitor, but for some reason did not love the curvature of the screen. Perhaps it was just too big relative to where I was sitting, but it did not feel comfortable. It’s also outrageously expensive at $2,799 vs. $1,499 and $1,399 for the ROG monitors. Note that I do not like ultrawide monitors with 21:9 or 32:9 formats like the Samsung Odyssey Neo G9 because I do not find them tall enough to be comfortable for work. Those typically come with a 1,440 vertical resolution. I much prefer the 16:9 format with 2,160 of vertical resolution. I would consider a curved ultrawide version of the ROG monitors, but only if they were as tall as their 16:9 counterparts with 2160 of vertical resolution (say 5,120 x 2,160 vs. the 5,120 x 1,440 of the Neo G9).

The best deal in 48” OLED monitors is the AORUS FO48U at $779. I did not play with it so cannot recommend it, but by all accounts, it’s a worthy alternative. Note that it has a glossy finish so would probably not be ideal in an office environment but would be great for gaming in a dark room. I use my monitors for both work and play and they need to function in bright rooms.

TV: LG C2 77-inch evo OLED TV

The LG C2 77-inch evo OLED TV is the best high-end TV for the money. The TV combines stunning picture quality with terrific gaming prowess. I prefer the C2 to the higher-end G2 as I can’t tell the difference between them. However, I prefer the C2 to the lower-end B2 especially with HDR as it gets brighter and highlights pop more. The C2 also has better gradient handling, resulting in less distracting banding. The 77” is currently on sale for $2,499 and the 65” for $1,699. Both are amazing buys and when it comes with TVs, bigger is better! However, the 83” sells for $3,999 and is not worth it.

Soundbar: Sonos Arc

It would be shame to have an amazing TV like the LG C2, without amazing sound. That’s where the Sonos Arc comes in. It’s a gorgeous soundbar offering premium surround sound without the need for supplementary speakers. It’s super easy to setup. It sounds incredible and it often feels like the sound is coming at you from all angles. I also do not think you need a subwoofer with the Arc as there is more than enough powerful bass to feel the on-screen explosions. It’s the perfect complement for your TV.

Projector: Epson EpiqVision Ultra LS800 Ultra Short-Throw Laser Projector

Two years ago, I recommended the Optoma CinemaX P2. Sadly, the salt and humidity in the air of Turks and Caicos killed it so I went projector shopping again. I ultimately settled on the Epson EpiqVision Ultra LS800. It’s amazing and a huge step up from the Optoma P2. It’s incredibly bright with 4,000 lumens (vs. 3,000). It can display images up to 150” (vs 120”). It has by far the shortest input lag of any projector in its class making it the only ultra-short-throw projector I would recommend for gaming. It’s super easy to setup. It has amazing sound with two full-range 5-watt speakers and a 10-watt subwoofer in a package that is essentially an integrated soundbar given the LS800’s width. In fact, it’s so good, I don’t use external speakers with it. It’s the ultra-short-throw projector to get.

Streaming Device: Apple TV 4K

Modern TVs like the LG C2 do not need a streaming device as it’s simpler to use the built-in apps especially since they now support Airplay. However, the Epson Ultra LS800 does not have a RJ-45 jack. In Turks I only have the VPN with a US IP address (to be able to watch US shows) on the wired network. As a result, I got the brand-new Apple TV 4K with Ethernet and 128Gb of storage and use it to stream on the Epson.

It’s expensive for what it is, but it’s the one of the best streaming devices on the market especially if you are used to Apple user interfaces and its ecosystem. The A15 Bionic chip makes it blisteringly quick which addresses one of my key criticisms of prior iterations.

If you prefer the Apple UX/UI and want a modern streaming device, you cannot go wrong with this one.

Notebook: LG Gram 17 Ultra-Slim PRO

I switched to the LG Gram 17 a few years ago to use when I travel, and I never looked back. It’s by far the lightest 17” notebook on the market at just over 3 pounds. The power adapter is exceedingly small and light. I regularly get over 10 hours per charge and feel like I never need to charge it.

My only gripes were that it was underpowered, but they addressed the issue with the 2022 version. It now comes with 32Gb of RAM, a 2TB SSD and a GeForce RTX 2050 graphics card. This is the notebook to get. Note that I do not game on it, as I have desktops with much more powerful graphics cards at my homes. I used to recommend gaming laptops, but they run ridiculously hot, the battery life is extremely limited (under 2 hours), and they are bulkier than I would like. However, if you want a notebook that you can game and work on there are great options from MSI and Asus.

Console: Xbox X & PS5

It was hard to recommend buying them until this year as they were both really hard to find and you had to massively overpay if you wanted them. Moreover, the lack of amazing new games did not make them a must buy. However, with the release of Elden Ring, it became imperative that I buy them as I prefer to play third person action role playing games (RPGs) on console than on PC. Luckily, this coincided with the consoles becoming more available.

If you can afford it, I would get both. The Xbox X is marginally more powerful and has slightly better graphics as a result. I also like the feel of the Xbox controller better in my hands. However, the PS5’s controller is objectively better and there are better first party games on the PS5 right now. I typically play games available on both consoles, like Call of Duty, on the Xbox. The exception is Elden Ring which for some reason looks marginally better on the PS5.

My biggest gripe remains the dearth of games I want to play on them. Once I finish a game, they gather dust for months while I await the release of the next game that interests me. Right now, I am about to play God of War Ragnarök which requires a PS5. I am eagerly awaiting the release of GTA 6, new Naughty Dog games, Starfield and many others, but who knows when they will release.

BTW do not allow cross-play with PC users when playing on console. A keyboard and mouse are just far more precise and it will ruin your gaming experience.

Video Games: Elden Ring & Age of Empires 4

I have a been a fan of real time strategy (RTS) games since the release of Dune 2 in 1992 and of the Age of Empires franchise specifically for 25 years. A year ago, Microsoft released Age of Empires IV. With much improved graphics and gameplay mechanics, I fell in love with the series all over again. It has been a lot of fun play online with my friends. Admittedly the game was not polished upon release and was missing many features. All of these have been addressed and the game is now well balanced and in a very good place. It’s the best RTS on the market right now and I encourage you to try it.

Likewise, I have been a huge fan of From Software Souls games for a long time. However, their linear design and extremely challenging difficulty level made it hard to recommend to normies. Elden Ring changes that. By combining the Souls formula with a gorgeous open world, From Software has created a masterpiece. If a boss is too strong for you, you can just bypass it and explore the rest of the world until you leveled up enough to take it on. The lore and story are riveting, and as per usual you are not spoon-fed anything. You get to figure out the story and decide where to go and what to do next. Expect to die many times as you “git gud,” but the sense of accomplishment from finally defeating that foe will make it all worth it. The multiplayer system, while still clunky, is the best in the series, and I was able to essentially play the entire game in co-op with my brother which was super fun. Note if you are new to Souls games I would recommend starting as an Astrologer which is the easiest class to play. We played through the game in about 100 hours and there are hundreds of other hours of content awaiting us. I can’t wait for the DLC to come out.

Fitness Tracker: Apple Watch Ultra

I have been part of the Fitbit ecosystem for years. I used the Fitbit Charge 5 since it came out (and the Charge 4 and 3 before then). I love the Charge 5 because of its simplicity and 7-day battery life. However, what has been annoying me continuously is that they keep breaking on me. I break at least 5 per year. I suspect that they do not like all the water I subject them to through kite surfing, and my daily hot tub and hot bath ritual. Alternatively, perhaps it does not like my adventures in the extreme cold. Fitbit replaces them for free every time, but it’s a pain in the neck to deal with..

When my Fitbit Charge 5 broke (yet again) a few weeks ago, I bit the bullet and bought the Apple Watch Ultra. I don’t love that the battery only lasts a day, so I charge it while I am working at my computer to make sure it has enough battery life to track my sleep. So far, I am very happy with it. It feels very sturdy, albeit a bit heavy, but the fitness, sleep and health tracking functions are second to none.

I will be putting it through its paces with lots of kitesurfing, extreme skiing, and my upcoming trip to Antarctica. Based on what I have seen so far, I think it’s going to be the watch for me for a very long time, or at least until the next version comes out 😉

Ride On Remote Controlled Car: 4WD Can-Am from CarTots

This is the perfect gadget for anyone with kids ages 0-5. François absolutely adores being driven in them. I bought a few of these for New York, Turks, and Revelstoke. You can fit two kids in them. You can drive them yourself with the remote, or when they are old enough, they can drive themselves with the functioning gas pedal and steering wheel.

The 4WD Can-Am is by far the best car I tested. It’s the most robust and can handle difficult terrain. I drove it on gravel and sand uphill and downhill with no issues. You can play music on it, and it has two batteries giving it the best battery life of the cars in its class.

With one of these, your progeny will be the cool kid on the block.

Crypto: Ledger Nano X

The downfall of FTX has strengthened the notion of “not your keys, not your coins” and the purpose and viability of DeFi in general. Most people should just buy and hold some BTC or ETH on Coinbase which is a regulated exchange. However, if you are more sophisticated, I would highly recommend you do self-custody with a Nano Ledger X.

I won’t lie that it’s a pain to setup. It’s an even bigger pain to use as you need to re-authenticate yourself continuously even with the longest setting, and you must manually verify every transaction, but that’s the entire point: better safe than sorry.

Note that I would only recommend this for technically savvy users who are doing more than just holding BTC and ETH on Coinbase which I consider to be an easier, safe, and viable alternative. However, at this point, I would NOT hold any coins on any centralized exchanges unless they are regulated and audited. I would not even trust Binance, though I have no indications they have done anything wrong with customer deposits.

Also note that you need to be extremely thoughtful about what you do with your recovery phrase in case you lose your Ledger. I keep mine split between different safes at different locations with different people who can access each of them, not that this matters much at this point as I sold most of my crypto between November 2021 and January 2022.

Wireless Headphones: HyperX Cloud II Wireless

I have been a fan of HyperX headphones for a very long time. They are incredibly comfortable, the sound quality is amazing, they block out external noises effectively and most importantly for me the microphone is noise cancelling allowing you to be able to Zoom from noisy environments without anyone on the call noticing. I recently upgraded all my headphones to the wireless version because I like to walk around during calls as I feel the blood flowing through my brain allows me to think better, not to mention it’s healthier. At my desk I use the Cloud II Wireless. I like that it’s USB-C and love the feel on my ears.

I travel with the HyperX Cloud Flight S because you can rotate the earcups which allows the headset to fit better in my eBags Pro Slim Laptop Backpack.

My only gripe with them is that they don’t support Bluetooth. You must use their USB dongle which works on PCs and the PS5. However, on my iPhone, I must connect the dongle to a lightning to USB connector, which works, but is far from ideal.

Chair: Herman Miller Embody Gaming Chair

I have been a huge fan of Herman Miller chairs, starting with the Aeron, before switching to the Embody years ago because I found it more comfortable. It’s an amazing chair and I love the gaming trim. It’s currently on sale on sale so I bought a few for every place I live and work in.

Streaming Microphone: Blue Yeti X

As I embarked on my Playing with Unicorns journey, I tested numerous microphones and headphones. Ultimately, I settled on the Blue Yeti X. The sound quality is excellent, and it is easy to setup and install.

Streaming Earphones: earHero

The earHero earphones are a great complement for the Blue Yeti X. They are invisible. No one can see you are wearing them, and they allow you to avoid noise pollution from your speakers into the microphone.

冬天来了

最近，我花了很多心思考虑宏观问题。 有些时候，宏观胜过微观。 在这种情况下，所有资产类别在繁荣时期的上升过程中都与 1 相关。 尽职调查被抛到九霄云外，市场也无法区分优秀公司和垃圾公司。 同样，在经济萧条时期，所有资产类别在下跌过程中的相关性都是 1。 市场把孩子和洗澡水一起倒掉了。

在过去的 18 个月里，我们一直生活在这样的时代。 2021 年 2 月，我在《欢迎来到万物泡沫》一书中指出，负实际利率和激进的扩张性财政政策正在助长各类资产的泡沫，现在是积极抛售高估资产的时候了。 今年 3 月，我在《伟大的未知》一文中指出，人们严重低估了全球经济面临的风险。 此后，这些风险只增不减。

@20vc_tok

#1 angel investor in the world #FabriceGrinda explains why #recession is so likely #2022 #economy #investor #investors #FJLabs #20VC #HarryStebbings

♬ Violin – Grooving Gecko

目前，看跌全球经济已成为共识。 像往常一样，我是个逆向思维者，但在这种情况下，我的逆向思维是，大家的共识还不够看跌。 大多数人都认为 2023 年会出现某种形式的软着陆或温和衰退。 我们远未陷入绝望的深谷，失去所有的希望。 任何坏消息只要低于预期，市场就会大幅上涨。 上周，当 CPI 公布为 7.7% 而不是 7.9% 时，或者当人们对利率上升速度可能放缓的消息感到欣喜若狂时，这种情况就发生了。 请注意，通胀率仍然居高不下，即使增长率可能下降，利率仍在上升（例如，二阶导数为负，但一阶导数仍为正）。

有九个因素促使我看跌。

1.利率可能比人们预期的更高，持续时间可能比人们预期的更长

在 9 月 20-21 日的 FOMC 会议之前，人们一直认为美国联邦基金利率的峰值为 3.5%。 目前为 3.75% 至 4%，预计在 2023 年达到峰值 4.6%，然后再次下降。

今年早些时候，我曾担心没有人考虑利率超过 5%的后果，因为他们认为这不在可能范围之内。 在过去的一年里，这是一个共识屡屡出错的领域。

由于通胀率仍然居高不下，而且有迹象表明，随着工人开始要求按照预期的通胀率提高工资，通胀将成为结构性问题，因此利率大幅走高的时间可能要比人们预期的更长。 如果利率最终达到 5.5%或更高，并一直维持到 2024 年或更久，我也不会感到惊讶。

2.强势美元正在新兴市场制造主权债务危机

大多数新兴市场的债务以美元计价，但税收以当地货币计算。 美国利率的上调，加上极高的通胀率，以及往往是自己造成的经济失误，使得美元大幅走强。

这一增长使许多新兴市场岌岌可危。 斯里兰卡已经违约。 接下来是加纳和巴基斯坦，其他许多国家也面临压力。

3.高油价将导致德国经济衰退

过去几十年来，德国的商业模式一直是利用廉价的俄罗斯天然气建造产品，然后出口到中国。 这种商业模式正受到双方的压力。 俄罗斯关闭北溪管道可能会使德国失去足够的天然气，既无法为居民供暖，也无法为依赖天然气的重工业提供燃料。 配给制和物价上涨将导致德国在 2023 年出现经济衰退，根据冬季的持续时间和严重程度，预计国内生产总值将萎缩 0.4% 到 7.9%。

4.新的欧元危机迫在眉睫

2007-2008 年金融危机爆发后，希腊几乎拖垮了欧元。 许多欧洲国家，尤其是 PIGS（葡萄牙、意大利、希腊、西班牙）国家的财政状况现在比当时严重得多。

从这些国家的负债水平来看，不需要大幅提高借贷成本，它们就会资不抵债。 最大的风险可能来自意大利，其债务与国内生产总值的比率现已超过 150%，其经济规模是希腊的十倍。 更糟糕的是，该国选举出了一个极右民族主义政府，在欧洲可能找不到多少友好的面孔，尤其是德国正处于能源危机之中。

我猜测，当危机发生时，欧洲将不惜一切代价维护欧元，但这一过程将极其痛苦。

5.银行危机一触即发

今年早些时候，我曾预测瑞士信贷银行（Credit Suisse）和瑞银集团（UBS）可能会出现违约，从而拖垮瑞士。 在最近发生的每一起涉及不良贷款的国际危机中，这些银行都处于中心位置，如 Archegos、Greensil、Luckin Coffee 等。 外币贷款本身就占瑞士国内生产总值的约 400%。 瑞士银行系统的官方资产约为 GDP 的 4.7 倍，但这不包括资产负债表外的资产。 将这些因素考虑在内，9.5x 10x 的比率更为准确。

@20vc_tok

Could #Switzerland default on their debt? #FabriceGrinda on #20VC with HarryStebbings. #swisseconomy #creditsuisse #archegos #greensill #iceland #recession2022 #economics #venturecapital #zurich #swissbank

♬ Suspense, horror, piano and music box – takaya

此后，市场逐渐认识到瑞士信贷的弱点。

欧洲银行普遍处于弱势地位。 它们拥有大量政府债务，这将使它们面临 PIGS 可能进行的债务重组。 它们以极低的利率发放了抵押物很少的抵押贷款，因此会受到利率上调和房地产价格下跌的影响。

此外，它们也没有像美国同行那样建立大量储备。 如果出现全面的信任危机，不难想象整个银行系统都会崩溃，因为银行会竭力避免交易对手的风险，从而导致大规模的金融危机。

6.房地产价格即将下跌

与所有其他资产类别一样，房地产价格在过去十年中也出现了大幅上涨。 目前，美国和全球大多数地方的房地产价值都被高估了。

与其他资产类别不同的是，尽管抵押贷款利率在过去 18 个月中从 2.5% 上升到 7%，但房地产价格尚未调整。 卖家需要一段时间来调整价格预期，因此流动性首先枯竭，然后价格下跌。

在过去 3 个月里，德克萨斯州奥斯汀等城市的房价已经下跌了 7% 以上。 如果在未来 24 个月内，全国房价下跌超过 15%，我也不会感到惊讶。

这种情况正在全球范围内发生。 在过去的 11 个月里，新西兰房价下跌了 10.9%。 预计瑞典的房价将从峰值下降 20%。 加拿大和英国似乎尤其容易受到影响，因为大多数拥有浮动利率抵押贷款的消费者都会受到利率大幅上调的影响。

7.乌克兰和俄罗斯的持续冲突将使谷物、天然气和石油价格居高不下

冲突看不到尽头。 鉴于谷物、天然气和石油价格仍将居高不下，无论利率水平如何，通胀率都将居高不下，因为价格是由供应限制而非高需求驱动的。

这还没有考虑到如果在冲突中使用战术核弹会发生什么情况，其后果将不堪设想。

8.中国不再是经济增长和消除通胀的力量

几十年来，中国一直是全球经济增长和通货紧缩的推动力之一。 中国的低成本和规模化制造能力使世界受益匪浅，有助于抑制通货膨胀。

现在已经不是这样了。 习近平对中国经济的管理无能，其零利率政策、反科技监管和普遍的反资本主义政策，已经压垮了中国的经济增长。

此外，他的金戈铁马政策正在导致中国与西方脱钩以及供应链的解体。 将这些供应链转移到印度、印度尼西亚、墨西哥或回到本土的过程会造成通货膨胀，因为世界会失去过去 30 年中受益于专业化和规模经济的机会。

从好的方面看，大多数军事专家都认为，中国在未来五年内将不具备入侵台湾的两栖作战能力。 虽然这把地缘政治的达摩克利斯之剑仍然悬在全球经济的头顶，但感觉清算的日子还没有到来。

9.地缘政治风险结构性上升

冷战后的协约正在瓦解。 我们正在进入一场新的冷战，在这场冷战中，西方将与中国、俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜展开对峙。 乌克兰冲突使这一动态变得非常清晰。 俄罗斯正在与伊朗制造的无人机、朝鲜制造的大炮作战，而中国的习近平则在联合国和世界舞台上支持普京。

这场新冷战可能以各种方式导致可怕的结果：

  • 核冲突、脏弹或乌克兰核电站事故。
  • 台湾战争。
  • 对西方基础设施的网络攻击不断升级。
  • 利用技术破坏西方民主国家的稳定，例如俄罗斯和中国在美国进行的选举跟踪。

所有这些都使世界变得不那么稳定，削弱了法治，增加了发生灾难性 “左尾 “结果的风险。

结论

这九个因素中的任何一个都足以造成全球经济衰退。 令我担忧的是，这些问题正在同时发生和显现，这表明 2007-2008 年的大衰退可能会重演。

我通常是房间里最乐观的人，自 2006 年以来，我从未如此看跌。 我仍然从概率的角度思考问题，但现在我认为严重衰退的概率高于轻微衰退的概率，而轻微衰退又高于任何乐观的结果。

为了完整起见，值得一提的事情是，这些事情会让我重新评估我的概率权衡，从而得出更乐观的结果。 如果乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的冲突明确结束，通货膨胀得到控制，我会变得更加乐观。 同样，中国也有可能在 2023 年通过调整房地产市场规则和解决房地产崩盘问题带来惊喜。

怎么办

尽管通胀率很高，但我会出售价格还算合理的资产，或者在熊市反弹时出售资产，以积累美元现金储备，在即将到来的危机中以缩水价格进行投资。 如果我的判断有误，我怀疑资产价格不会回升，而你总是可以在与退出时相似的价格重新进入。 当利率再次开始下降时，我就会重新进入市场，尤其是风险资产。

不过，如果我是对的，大多数资产类别都会变得非常有趣，其中不良资产尤其引人注目。 这将是 2008-2009 年以来第一个真正的困境周期。 我预计，不良债券、房地产甚至加密货币领域会有很多机会。

如果您的房产有 30 年期固定抵押贷款，而且利率很低，则属于例外情况。 在这种情况下，即使房价下跌 15%-20%，您也最好保留自己的房产，因为按照目前 7% 的抵押贷款利率，您购买房产的能力最多会受损 50%，这取决于您支付的利率有多低。 此外，目前的通货膨胀率高于您所支付的利率，因此您的实际债务负担会减少。

我还会减少你的年度支出，以积累现金储备，以防经济衰退导致你失业。 偿还所有可变高息贷款，如信用卡债务，但保留低息债务。

历史胜过宏观

与此同时，目前唯一的投资方向就是处于早期阶段的私营初创科技公司。 早期阶段估值合理。 创始人都在关注自己的单位经济效益。 他们正在限制现金消耗，以便至少在两年内不必进入市场。 初创企业面临着较低的客户获取成本和更少的竞争。 与过去几年相比，退出会推迟，退出倍数也会降低，但这应该会被较低的入市价格和赢家将赢得整个类别的事实所弥补。

对这些初创企业来说，重要的宏观环境是 6-8 年后他们寻求退出时的宏观环境，而不是当前的环境。 目前，最重要的是他们能筹集到足够的现金，并实现足够的增长，以获得下一次融资，因此目前应避开资本密集型行业。

过去十年中最好的初创企业投资是在 2008 年至 2011 年间进行的（Uber、Airbnb、Whatsapp、Instagram），我猜测 2020 年代最有趣的投资将在 2022 年至 2024 年间进行。

从长远来看，历史胜过宏观。 我对世界和经济的未来仍然非常乐观。 自 1950 年以来，11 次经济衰退持续时间在 2 到 18 个月之间，平均持续时间为 10 个月。 我们会走出困境的。 此外，回过头来看，过去的 200 年是一部技术进步和创新的历史，尽管经历了无数次战争和经济衰退，但人类的生活条件还是得到了改善。

@20vc_tok

What trends break through recessions? #recessionproof #futureproof #FabriceGrinda #techtrends #technology #macroeconomics #FJLabs #HarryStebbings #20VC #techhistory #futureinvestements

♬ Stories 2 – Danilo Stankovic

由于科技的发展，西方普通家庭的生活质量是昔日国王们无法想象的。 由于规模经济、网络效应、知识和制造方面的正反馈循环（也称为学习曲线），以及企业家希望面向尽可能大的市场并尽可能大规模地影响世界的愿望，新技术迅速实现了民主化。

这大大提高了结果的平等性。 100 年前，只有富人才会去度假、拥有交通工具、室内管道或电力。 如今在西方，几乎人人都有电、汽车、电脑和智能手机。 几乎每个人都会去度假，而且坐得起飞机。 我们理所当然地认为，我们可以在数小时内到达世界的另一端，我们的口袋里除了可以免费进行全球视频通信外，还可以获得人类知识的总和。 在印度，一个拥有智能手机的贫困农民所能获得的信息和通信比 30 年前的美国总统还要多。 这些都是了不起的壮举。

尽管取得了这些进展，但我们仍处于技术革命的起步阶段。 最大的经济部门尚未实现数字化：公共服务、医疗保健或教育。 大多数供应链仍处于脱机状态。 数字化将提高它们的效率，减少通货紧缩，进而实现包容性。

在 FJ 实验室，我们遇到了许多非凡的创始人，他们正在解决21世纪的各种问题，如气候变化、机会不平等、身心健康危机等，因此我们乐观地认为，人类将迎接时代的挑战。

我们正确地解读了宏观形势，并在 2021 年尽可能多地抛售了我们的后期和加密货币仓位，因此我们发现自己现金充裕，仅部署了 25% 的基金。 作为逆向思维者，我们现在正极其积极地投资于轻资产企业，我们非常荣幸能够帮助建设一个更美好的未来世界，一个机会均等、富足、具有社会意识和环境可持续发展的世界。

未来几年会很艰难，但现在是建设的最佳时机，我们会比以往任何时候都更强大、更好。

Investing in the things that build our world

By Matias Barbero and Fabrice Grinda

Those of us building and investing in tech spend most of our time thinking about the future. We ponder the impossible, the cutting edge, even the esoteric: software, artificial intelligence, crypto, asset-light services delivered through digital apps. Mars and outer space might often represent a larger share of one’s daily musings than dull terrestrial matters. Yet here we are. We live on planet Earth. We inhabit the physical world, at least for now! Almost everything we do in our daily lives involves – directly or indirectly – tangible materials, machinery, chemicals, etc. We want to push the boundaries of how our world currently works by digitizing legacy industries and making them more efficient. All of this is deflationary, making goods cheaper for everybody, which in turn is inclusionary, aligning with our overarching purpose as investors.

The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed. That’s true for different industries, as it is for different countries around the globe. Consumer marketplaces have a huge head start over their B2B counterparts, for example. There are also varying levels of tech adoption across geographies. B2B marketplaces have been at the core of FJ Labs’ thesis in recent years and are one of the best tools with which entrepreneurs can take on the challenges and limitations present in the physical realm.

Within our B2B marketplace thesis, we focus on many different verticals, including staffing, FMCG, wholesale commerce, and others. Today we want to zoom into one of the categories: marketplaces dealing inputs and raw materials, or put differently, the things that build our physical world. This excludes other very compelling B2B marketplace categories such as staffing and labor, food and beverages, services, logistics, and many others.

Let’s double click on the focus of this post: inputs and raw materials. They all deal with physical components and help build our world, in the most literal sense. Under this definition, some of what we consider “inputs” could be deemed by others as “outputs” too, but for today’s purpose we view things like precision parts and heavy machinery as key “inputs” in the value chain that build the most prevalent things in our world.

We could look at this thesis from two different dimensions (see table below): A. Across different categories such as raw materials, precision parts, or heavy machinery, and B. Across different verticals like construction, agriculture, and many others. Note that through this lens Boom & Bucket, for instance, belongs both to the ‘heavy machinery’ category and the ‘construction’ vertical.

Let’s use the “raw materials” category as an example. Besides steel and chemicals, there could also be marketplaces for concrete, sand and gravel, minerals, among others. There are still many other companies to be built in each category and across verticals. We’re excited to see the creativity with which entrepreneurs tackle each of these.

We will cover two companies that are disrupting their respective industries: Reibus and Knowde. These are just two case studies we’ll be using today to highlight and layout important points within this broader thesis, but we see lots of opportunities ahead and we’ll conclude with some insights and comments for entrepreneurs to consider when exploring them.

My Chemical Romance

The chemical industry is ~$5 trillion in size and supports roughly 25% of the world’s GPD. The vast majority of the chemicals manufactured are used to make every physical product we love. If you’re reading this from an iPhone, if you’re wearing your favorite Nike’s today, or if you’re enjoying your midday salad, all roads will lead to chemicals in some way or another.

You would think that such an important industry would be supported by the latest technology, with streamlined and efficient internal processes to ensure a key layer in the world’s supply chain runs smoothly. But stakeholders in the chemical industry are operating the same way they did 100 years ago: sellers are offline and have not caught up with ecommerce advances, the buying process is extremely inefficient with transactions done over phone calls and emails, and product information is ridiculously opaque, lost in static pdf documents and a fragmented supply base.

Our portfolio company Knowde is out to solve this by bringing the entire buying experience online. They are building a Shopify and Amazon hybrid model whereby sellers can create their online storefronts with ecommerce, payments, and fulfilment capabilities while aggregating the collective supply under the Knowde umbrella so buyers can have a one-stop-shop for their chemicals.

There are different tactical ways in which a B2B marketplace can go about their go-to-market strategy; Knowde chose to start by tackling the opacity of the chemicals market through a relentless focus on search and discovery.

In practice, this means laying the groundwork of what will later become a fully online transactional marketplace. Until there’s enough liquidity on the supply side to ensure smooth transactions, the initial business model is predominantly based on storefronts monetized through SaaS in lieu of the traditional marketplace take rate.

This hyper-focus is yielding impressive results for Knowde as they are currently adding around 5 new suppliers per day (!) to their platform. To put matters into perspective, there are ~15k total global sellers and ~8k of them already have a live storefront with Knowde. This is roughly half of the world’s supply in one platform. Once they become the de facto industry destination for suppliers, there’s a clear path to keep upgrading key accounts into paid subscriptions and ultimately enabling online transactions, among many other value-added services.

Pedal to the Metal

We can’t have a proper conversation about the things that build our world without a word on steel. This raw material is as prevalent as it gets. From forks and knives to NYC’s skyscrapers; from refrigerators and washing machines to cargo ships cruising around the world. Since the late 19th century, steel has become a synonym for our modern infrastructure.

Manufacturers and distributors transact steel (think sheets, coils, bars coming out of steel mills) with OEMs who then use it to manufacture components and end products.

Another trillion-dollar global industry (starting to see the common appeal here?) fraught with inefficiencies and lack of innovation. There are structural issues coming from decades of stale and offline processes, exacerbated by logistical headaches proper of a heavy product that is expensive to move.

Reibus, one of FJ’s portfolio companies in this category, is a B2B marketplace servicing the industrial metals industry (mainly steel and aluminum) with purpose-built features for both buyers and sellers. What does this mean concretely? They provide much more than just a matching platform: Reibus embeds fintech (financing, payment options, etc.) and logistics capabilities (digital brokerage, shipment dashboard, etc.). They are a heavily managed SaaS-enabled marketplace.

Industry stakeholders were quick to adopt Reibus’ hands-on marketplace. Founded in 2018, Reibus has scaled in-platform transactions to several hundred million in annual GMV, with plenty of room to grow as they are still a tiny fraction of the offline market.

Building inputs & raw materials B2B marketplaces

We’re truly excited about this opportunity to invest in the things that build our world and think there are many unexplored avenues for future entrepreneurs to start new B2B marketplaces aligned with this input & raw materials thesis. As discussed at the beginning of this post, there are countless areas to explore and we see a lots of openings across both categories and verticals, and even geographic arbitrage plays.

It’s important to bear in mind, though, that not every industry will be suited for a marketplace model, and that certain conditions and core strengths will play an important role in the success of these ventures.

  1. Founder-market-fit matters: B2B marketplaces benefit from having at least one founder who is a true industry insider. They lived through the pain points in the industry and have been deeply frustrated by them. They would ideally combine this first-hand industry knowledge with a co-founder and/or founding team member that could think from first principles on how to best design frameworks to dramatically improve the current experience. They also have the credibility to convince existing players to change their processes. Just to name some examples, John Armstrong, Reibus’ CEO, had bought $1bn+ of materials before starting his tech entrepreneurial journey, and Knowde’s CEO, Ali Amin-Javaheri, spent 10+ years working for ChemPoint, an incumbent in the space he began to disrupt right after he left.
  2. Marketplace dynamics: Ask yourself if the buyer and seller base is fragmented enough. This is true for most marketplaces but especially true in B2B where many verticals are concentrated on the supply side. The more concentrated the industry, the harder it is to have a meaningful take rate. In fact, you may be merely a distributor for a few incumbents rather than a real marketplace if the market is concentrated enough. The incentive and easiness to circumvent your platform would also be higher.  
  3. Find your unlock: Aggregation is often not sufficient. The platform should quickly focus on value-added services to create strong value propositions for both supply and demand. Founders need to figure out which specific services or features will unlock the greatest amount of liquidity for the marketplace. For Knowde, it was solving discovery and price opacity with information locked into siloed pdfs. For Reibus, it was offering financing and logistics services.
  4. Different paths to start monetizing: Charging a take rate on each transaction is the classic way a marketplace can begin to generate revenue, but it shouldn’t necessarily be the first choice in the monetization toolkit, and it’s certainly not the only one. In some cases, you cannot charge a take rate right away and must find alternatives. Reibus, which leverages real material pricing in commodities to facilitate their RFQ process, was able to have a take rate from the get-go, but that would not have worked for Knowde, which needed to bring discovery online first, hence a SaaS business model made more sense in the beginning.
  5. Juice up the blended take rate: It’s often hard to take more than 1-3% in B2B marketplaces. As a result, they may also monetize through SaaS subscription or listing fees instead of, or in addition to a take rate. Moreover, revenues are usually complemented by offering and monetizing additional services: advertising/placement, financing, insurance, logistics are all options. Once network effects kick in, a mix of business models can create a multiplier effect on net revenues. Many end up being able to increase their blended revenues to 10% of GMV as a result of the monetization diversity.
  6. Geographic arbitrage: For certain businesses, you can bring an idea from one country to another. This arbitrage is not always going to be possible in B2B marketplaces for inputs and raw materials as some of the markets are truly global in nature, likely leading to global winners. Does this mean that there couldn’t be an “X model for Y country” play? No, but it’s less obvious than with other categories within the B2B marketplace realm (e.g., FMCG products, fresh food, labor, etc.). This is driven by how local the supply is, how transportable the good is, and the extent to which the price is set locally. The market for oil for instance is global – with a fungible, interchangeable commodity that can be easily transported and has a global price. Natural gas on the other hand is local, with prices that vary by region based on local supply and market conditions suggesting that regional players can emerge. That said, even if dealing with mostly global supply, startups in other regions might have a window of opportunity to focus on local differentiated supply, especially on the long tail, and compete before potentially stepping into someone else’s shoes.

Inputs & raw materials: investing in the things that build our world

Marketplaces have had many evolutions over the years. B2B marketplaces are now in their infancy but poised to catch up with the digitalization of their B2C counterparts. As a result, as counter intuitive as it sounds, we believe that many of the best opportunities lie in forgotten old industries.

We’ve been actively investing in the inputs and raw materials category and looking forward to meeting entrepreneurs thinking about these big challenges with deep industry knowledge and innovative approaches. The future of the things that build our world is only getting started.

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