Episode 19: Reinvesting in the Latam Tech Ecosystem with Brian Requarth

Brian Requarth is the Co-Founder of Latitud and former CEO of Viva Real. Through Latitud, he now dedicates his time to providing mentorship and advice for entrepreneurs in Latin America (LATAM).

Brian’s new book, Viva the Entrepreneur: Founding, Scaling, and Raising Venture Capital in Latin America shares the hard lessons he learned while building and scaling his company. It covers best practices for communicating with your co-founder, finding great investors, and building a good board. Brian joins me this week to share how he’s investing his resources back to LATAM, and lessons for marketplace businesses.

 

Social Capital

Brian’s work is part of a greater initiative to connect founders in LATAM with high level founders, advisors, and investors. His goal is to elevate the Latin American startup community by providing access to global mentors.

Investors are beginning to realize the massive potential for fast growing companies. Companies from emerging markets have the advantage of having large markets with fewer competition.

Latitud helps founders in Latin America leverage the collective knowledge and wisdom from global mentors. The rigorous program is a month packed with insightful talks and one-on-one sessions. This social capital model provides value and inspires founders to execute their vision.

Focus on owning one market

When building a marketplace, you should focus on being a big fish in a medium-sized pond. Founders often make the mistake of scaling globally too early and wasting resources.

“Matching supply and demand is critical.”

Chasing the international market is a distraction. Marketplaces should focus on dominating localities first, then branching outward. Start in one specific area then expand to neighbouring ones, which allows companies to focus on rapidly improving their service/product as feedback is implemented quicker.

Build a strong inner circle

Being a founder can often feel lonely. This is especially true for first-time founders who have not yet seen success. Brian highlights the importance of creating a trusted network and emphasizes two key takeaways to keep you on the right track:

  1. Find other founders who are ahead of you in their journey. Fellow founders are better able to empathize with the struggles of raising capital, leading a team, and hiring/firing.
  1. Have a good executive team. They will rise above challenges during crisis moments, carry your vision, and come up with unique solutions to problems. 

“Find a trusted network.”

Persistence

Brian reminds us that during challenging times, a founder must focus on the things they can control and resist distractions beyond their control. When driven by a mission rather than money, they are more persistent in the face of adversity.

“It’s about persistence and focus.”

Viva Entrepreneur is full of insights and lessons from someone who has walked the talk. Brian is honest and transparent. I recommend this book to anyone looking to learn what it takes to build a great company.

You can also invest in Brian’s rolling fund at: http://fund.latitud.com/


If you prefer, you can listen to the episode in the embedded podcast player.

In addition to the above Youtube video and embedded podcast player, you can also listen to the podcast on:

FJ Labs 估值矩陣

不久前,我發佈了 FJ Labs 用來評估市場初創公司的矩陣。 多年來,它一直是我們預設的內部框架,但僅限於抽成率為 10-20% 的市場,這曾經是我們的麵包和黃油。 然而,現在我們主要投資於B2B市場,這些市場通常有3-5%的抽成率。 該框架也不適用於SAAS業務和電子商務業務。

此外,還不清楚你應該從誰那裡籌集資金,以及對融資收益的期望是什麼。 投資者和風險投資人通常按階段進行專業化,您需要在正確的階段與正確的風險投資人交談。 因此,我重做了矩陣,使其更清晰並涵蓋了大多數情況。

為了解決每個階段的預期牽引力,我從使用商品總量 (GMV) 作為參考指標轉向凈收入。 這使我們能夠在不同的商業模式中具有可比性,儘管仍然存在一些差異,因為大多數SAAS業務的獲利率為90%+,而大多數市場的獲利率為60-70%,電子商務獲利率各不相同。

請注意,還有一個隱含的增長預期,即您將在大約18個月內從一個階段轉移到另一個階段。

請注意,上述範圍涵蓋中位數。 有很多例外,尤其是在高端。 換句話說,標準差相當高。 第二次成功的創始人可以以更高的估值籌集資金。 一家增長速度比平均水準快得多的公司通常可以「跳過一個階段」,讓其 A 輪融資看起來像 B 輪融資,或者讓 B 輪融資看起來像 C 輪融資。但是,這些是一般準則,應該對大多數企業家有所説明。

作為參考,我還附上了原始的 FJ Labs Marketplace Matrix

Episode 18: Thirty-Six Lessons from Company Founders & CEOs with Tim Jackson

Tim Jackson is a fellow entrepreneur, venture capitalist and author. He has lived an interesting life from a career in journalism for the Financial Times, to VC seed funding for technology startups. It was no accident that he would eventually find himself in this world – he recalls speaking on the phone and writing a column about some guy called Jeff, who had just started a company called Amazon in 1995.

Tim fell in love with VC as a managing director running a $700m fund for The Carlyle Group in Europe:

“I realized that actually my heart is with the struggling entrepreneur, who’s got a fantastic business that isn’t yet quite right.”

His new book, Startup: Thirty-Six Lessons from Company Founders & CEOs, will teach you how to make better decisions and become a more competent CEO. Tim knows firsthand how frustrating it is to navigate the seas of heading a company with no guidance. He joined me this week to share some of his knowledge and insights with us.

Walk

There are two driving philosophies behind Tim’s emphasis on ‘walking’ when it comes to startups.

  1. Taking walks around Kensington Gardens and Hyde Park with potential entrepreneurs led to having conversations that were much more agreeable, personal, and revealing. Knowing the type of person a founder is goes a long way.

“I had underweighted founder skills and temperament as a factor in our investment decision making. I thought it would be a good idea to move the process of due diligence to the top of the funnel stage and actually meet entrepreneurs and learn about their life stories (instead) of hearing their pitches.”

  1. Building a startup is not a sprint. In fact, it is not even a marathon – it’s more like walking. Think about the totality of the slow yet consistent steps taken over the course of one’s life. Tim warns against the common trap VCs fall into: being overly hasty and setting unrealistic timescales.

“It’s a bit like that line of Peter Thiel: people overestimate what they can achieve in a year and underestimate what they can achieve in a decade. If you just walk for a couple of hours every morning, you can cover an awful lot of ground.”


Leading and Managing

From years of observing and working with CEOs, Tim has developed five basic things you should keep in mind when approaching a discussion with somebody who is reporting to you. These ideas are encompassed in the acronym: SCRIM.

  • Suitability

There is definitely a limit to the resources (time and capital) you can spend on trying to improve or train someone that just will not fit. The sooner you can recognize that you probably hired the wrong person, or you gave them a role they are not suited for, the better.

  • Coaching your reports

Founders and CEOs often fall into the trap of hiring people who have accomplished everything before the job they need to do. Not only can this be expensive, but it may be unfulfilling for them. It’s great to hire people for potential and skills, but then it’s your responsibility to coach them so they acquire the specific knowledge needed in your business. I often see founders get the hiring for potential right, but then ignore the fact that the person needs some help and support to perform best.

  • Regularity

It is all well and good for someone to know what to do but having the required frequency of contact is important to execute and function reliably.

  • Involvement/Incentivization

It is crucial to ensure that everyone reporting to you feels excited about what they’re doing and what you’re all trying to achieve together. Aim to give others a shared sense of destiny with the success of the company.

  • Metrics

There is no getting around the hard quantitative data that shows you whether a person is doing a good job and how well things are going week to week.

“My sense is that the CEO who touches all those bases is unlikely to go too far wrong in managing a team”

Getting along with your co-founder

“In terms of failings…a second big slice will be falling out with co-founders. Very often things tend to get ignored until the point where there’s actually a problem that can’t be fixed.”

Having honest conversations with your co-founder can be difficult, but it is one of the most crucial things you can do. Sugar coating things often leads to misunderstandings that can fester like an untreated wound. Be transparent with feedback, expectations of each other and roles.

Tim also talks about the importance of responsibility and involvement. A failing CEO is often either neglecting others or micromanaging them. He advocates for striving to find the delicate balance between the two:

“If I am the outside person, and my job is to reach out to 30 VC funds, then you as my co-founder and co-CEO are allowed to say, so how’s it going? How many have you reached out to, and where are they?”

Delegate responsibility but maintain some degree of involvement and presence for others.

The 3 things a founder can do to run a successful business:

  1. Find the right market

There is an awful lot of founders who are building products which either aren’t going to serve enough people, or they’re serving people that don’t have enough money at their disposal to build a real business.

  1. Get the product right

This is a very early-stage consideration, but it is surprising how many companies go much further than they ought to in scaling before they have the product right. Build the foundation first.

  1. Scalability

Recognizing that ultimately your ability to scale a business is all about the people. Specifically, hiring people who can run the business at 100x the size it is today.

To run a company at scale effectively, you are going to need skills which you may not have today. The reality is that you may have to acquire the skills “while the airplane is still in mid-flight.”  Having the courage to admit and recognize your limitations is often the most effective way to lead – trust and learn from others.

Startup: Thirty-Six Lessons from Company Founders & CEOs, Tim’s new book, is available from Amazon. It is an invaluable tool at all stages of leadership: whether you are a budding entrepreneur or a seasoned CEO. Strive to learn and growth will follow.

If you prefer, you can listen to the episode in the embedded podcast player.

In addition to the above Youtube video and embedded podcast player, you can also listen to the podcast on:

歡迎來到 Everything Bubble!

市場狂熱的警告信號無處不在。 市盈率居高不下,而且還在攀升。 比特幣在一年內上漲了300%。 SPAC的IPO如潮水般湧來。 在人口稠密的大城市之外,房地產價格正在迅速上漲。

標準普爾 500 市盈率

過去 12 個月的 BTC 價格

這些,以及零售驅動的空頭擠壓、迷你泡沫和波動性增加,都是泡沫的癥狀。

乍一看,我們正處於泡沫中,數百萬人失業或就業不足,這一事實似乎令人驚訝。 然而,在大流行期間,由於政府財政刺激的歷史性水準,個人收入增加了超過一萬億美元。

3月至11月,工資僅下降了430億美元。 雖然許多低端服務業工人失去了工作,但高薪專業工作沒有受到影響,一些低技能工作蓬勃發展,如倉儲和雜貨店,導致損失低於預期。

政府支持計劃的規模是前所未有的。 失業保險計劃向美國人的口袋注入了4990億美元。 向大多數美國家庭發放的1,200美元刺激支票又增加了2760億美元。 總而言之,2020 年 3 月至 11 月,美國人的稅後收入比 2019 年多了 1 萬億美元。 結果,美國破產申請在 2020 年創下 35 年來的新低!

最重要的是,可自由支配的支出急劇下降。 服務支出下降了5750億美元,因為人們沒有去度假,去餐館、電影院、體育場館、音樂會等。 雖然美國人在耐久財上的支出有所增加,但總體支出仍下降了5350億美元。

再加上個人收入的增加,美國人多節省了1.5萬億美元!

雖然這些額外的現金中有一部分用於存款,但其中很大一部分也用於投資,推高了資產價格。 這是在美聯儲釋放的大量流動性及其將利率保持在接近零的承諾之上的——事實上,實際利率現在低於零。

資產價格的價值應為其貼現未來現金流量的凈現值。

接近 0 的利率可以證明更高的估值是合理的。 如果您認為利率現在將永遠保持在 0 附近,那麼當前的估值實際上是合理的。 首先,考慮到大多數全球政府正因赤字和債務的不可持續增長而遭受財政狀況惡化的困擾,我不認為情況會如此。

清算的一天即將到來,但可能不會像我在 年終更新中煩惱的那樣快。 我懷疑我哭得太早了。 在可預見的未來,世界仍將更加專注於抗擊新冠疫情,而不是政府債務增加的後果。 最重要的是,私人和公共支出的預期增長應該會進一步提振經濟。

在過去十年的大部分時間里,美國的儲蓄率一直在7%左右。 雖然它從4月份33%的峰值下降,但仍在13%左右。 我懷疑,一旦 COVID 過去,就會有結束所有派對的派對。 人們會去旅行、聚會和消費,就像沒有明天一樣。 如果儲蓄率恢復到7%的事前水準,那將意味著額外的1.2萬億美元支出。 除此之外,還有另一個1.9萬億美元的刺激計劃,其中可能包括1,400美元的直接付款,進一步火上澆油。

換句話說,我認為在這個泡沫破裂之前,我們還有很長的路要走。 在科技泡沫期間,我寫道,很明顯,在泡沫破裂之前的幾年裡,我們正處於泡沫之中。 同樣,在房地產泡沫期間,我警告我所有的朋友從2004年開始不要購買房地產。 鑒於這種情況,1998年或1999年的可能性比2000年2月更大。

這一切將如何結束?

如果沒有金融危機,資產價格泡沫可能會破裂,就像科技泡沫期間發生的那樣。 我們無法判斷投資者情緒何時會不再像現在這樣樂觀,而且一旦我們將 COVID 拋在腦後,它可能會在我預期的支出狂歡之後出現。

然而,考慮到 COVID 造成的所有政府和企業債務,麻煩正在醞釀之中。 有幾種方法可以解決這個問題。

1. 我們從中成長

這並非史無前例。 在第一次世界大戰和第二次世界大戰期間,政府債務激增。 然而,在兩次世界大戰之後,強勁的消費需求和強勁的投資帶來了強勁的經濟增長。 它可能會再次發生。 在經歷了幾十年的生產率增長停滯之後,我們可能正處於生產率繁榮的邊緣。 COVID 導致數位支付、遠端醫療、工業自動化、在線教育、電子商務和遠端工作的採用率大幅增加。 最重要的是,mRNA疫苗的開發速度給人們帶來了希望,即醫療保健領域將有更多的創新。

2. 我們充氣

美國顯然也在試圖提高名義通脹率,以保持實際利率為負值,這有助於政府去槓桿化,就像二戰後所做的那樣。 實際利率現在再次為負值。

美國5年期國債收益率曲線利率

考慮到刺激措施的規模和預期的需求增長,我懷疑他們將成功地將名義通脹率推高至美聯儲設定的2%以上。

請注意,這樣的結果並不總是有保證的。 儘管日本實施了大規模的政府支出和量化寬鬆政策,但在過去30年的大部分時間里,日本未能製造通貨膨脹。 正如辛巴威在過去二十年中所強調的那樣,您還可以超調並造成高通脹。

將通脹控制在2-3%的範圍內將是理想的結果。

3. 我們有盈餘

在兩次世界大戰之後,社會和政治上都達成了強烈的共識,贊成預算限制和債務削減。

德國通過盈餘將其債務與GDP的比率從2010年的82.4%降至2019年的59.8%。

同樣,作為救助條件的一部分,希臘也被迫維持盈餘並修正其揮霍無度的方式。

我對將要發生的事情的看法

美國不再有保持盈餘的紀律,但只要美元仍然是全球儲備貨幣,美國就可以繼續維持赤字。 清算的日子終將到來,但短期內似乎不會出現,因此美國債務將繼續膨脹。

有一段時間,我擔心下一次金融危機會以主要經濟體的主權債務危機的形式出現,因為投資者擔心它再也負擔不起債務水準,就像十年前在希臘發生的那樣。 我想到了義大利,其債務與GDP的比率將在2021年超過150%。

我不再確定這是最高概率的情況。 歐元危機表明,歐洲願意做任何事情來保護歐元,我預計這次也不例外。 雖然可能會出現主權債務危機,但我們可能會找到一種方法來擺脫危機。

因此,我想知道下一次危機是否會以信仰危機的形式出現,而是以法定貨幣的形式出現。 我不認為這種情況在未來一年左右發生。 然而,鑒於不斷擴大的貨幣供應量以及世界上幾乎每個主要國家的債務和赤字的不可持續增長,總有一天會清算。

作為生活在這個泡沫中的個人該怎麼辦?

目前尚不清楚泡沫破裂的原因和時間,但有幾種方法可以為泡沫破裂做好準備。

首先,在這種環境下,你不應該擁有任何債券。 收益率低得離譜,而且您沒有因違約風險而獲得補償。 同時,您也面臨通貨膨脹的風險。

其次,我會將你的現金持有量大幅增加到你資產的20%或更多。 你沒有從這些現金上賺到任何東西,你失去了通貨膨脹值。 最重要的是,它將在法定貨幣危機中貶值。 然而,在其他類型的危機中,擁有流動性是有用的,當泡沫破裂時,人們會乘坐飛機前往安全的地方。 它提供安全性、靈活性,並允許您以低廉的價格購買資產。 同時,如果通貨膨脹率飆升,如有必要,您可以轉移現金。

第三,避免像瘟疫一樣的利潤。 雖然通貨膨脹會降低您的債務價值(抵押貸款還可以),但您不希望在泡沫破裂和資產價值下降時受到追加保證金的影響。 在2007-2008年的金融危機期間,許多富人以這種方式破產。

第四,擁有優質股票。 它們在通貨膨脹環境中增值,並在資產價格下跌時保留更多價值。 換句話說,不要遭受FOMO的困擾,追求最新的投資熱潮(比特幣,Gamestop等)。 這並不是說,如果你擁有一些比特幣,你就一定要賣掉你的比特幣。 這是一種數字黃金,可能是一個很好的通脹對沖工具,但我不會在當前的價格水準上增加我的頭寸。

你不應該試圖做空泡沫,因為正如凱恩斯所說:“市場保持非理性的時間可能比你保持償付能力的時間更長”。 玩泡沫的更好方法是創建像科技初創公司或SPAC這樣的資產。

請注意,就我而言,我什至不擁有股票。 我有一個杠鈴策略,只有現金和早期缺乏流動性的私營科技創業公司。 如果你有足夠的多元化(意味著超過100項投資)來解釋失敗的創業公司,那麼私人的早期科技創業公司是最好的資產類別。 它們為經濟創造價值,並且可以快速增長。 因此,在通貨膨脹和通貨緊縮的環境中擁有它們都是驚人的。

請注意,我在現金和初創公司之間的資產餘額變化很大。 有時我都在創業公司。 有時我會保留大量現金儲備。 現在,我正在建立我的現金儲備,同時仍在投資。 我特別喜歡賣出估值過高的上市科技股(或IPO前公司)並投資於估值稍低的早期科技初創公司的套利。 然而,我懷疑擁有大量現金儲備將在未來幾年的某個時候派上用場。

祝你好運!

Episode 17: The State of Solar

This week Kerim Baran shares where we stand in the world of solar. He covers:

  • The history of solar
  • The impressive decline of the cost of panel over the last 40 years
  • The decline in the cost of batteries
  • Why ultimately batteries plus panels will cost less than maintaining the grid leading most electricity to be made locally in a distributed fashion even if fusion comes to pass and creates energy at 0 marginal cost
  • Why we will have a hybrid setup of grid plus local production for the foreseeable future
  • What to do if you are interested in solar

If you prefer, you can listen to the episode in the embedded podcast player.

In addition to the above Youtube video and embedded podcast player, you can also listen to the podcast on:

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