Fabrice Grinda

月份: 2022 年 11 月

2022 Holiday Gadget Gift Guide

It is that time of the year again, so I am sharing my recommendations for all gadget lovers of the world to be happy this holiday season. Note that the cover picture above is my Turks setup which includes the ASUS ROG Swift OLED PG48UQ, the Apple Watch Ultra, Ledger Nano X, HyperX Cloud Flight S, Herman Miller Embody Gaming Chair, Blue Yeti X, and earHero.

Computer Monitor: Asus ROG Swift OLED PG48UQ or PG42UQ

I have been a fan of OLED TVs since they first released with their deep blacks and extraordinary image quality. I pined for 4K OLED gaming monitors to be released. I even used a LG 48” TV as a monitor for a while but found it unwieldy and the glossy finish was too reflective for work. This is where the Asus ROG OLED PG48UQ and PG42UQ come into play. They are extraordinary. The image quality is second to none. The monitors are super-fast with 0.1ms grey-to-grey response time and overclockable 138Hz refresh rate. The special matte coating leads to less glare and fewer distractions. They are definitely the monitor to get. Note that both are identical, and you should get the one that fits your desk. If you have a very deep desk, get the 48”, otherwise get the 42”.

I also considered the Odyssey Ark 55” curved monitor, but for some reason did not love the curvature of the screen. Perhaps it was just too big relative to where I was sitting, but it did not feel comfortable. It’s also outrageously expensive at $2,799 vs. $1,499 and $1,399 for the ROG monitors. Note that I do not like ultrawide monitors with 21:9 or 32:9 formats like the Samsung Odyssey Neo G9 because I do not find them tall enough to be comfortable for work. Those typically come with a 1,440 vertical resolution. I much prefer the 16:9 format with 2,160 of vertical resolution. I would consider a curved ultrawide version of the ROG monitors, but only if they were as tall as their 16:9 counterparts with 2160 of vertical resolution (say 5,120 x 2,160 vs. the 5,120 x 1,440 of the Neo G9).

The best deal in 48” OLED monitors is the AORUS FO48U at $779. I did not play with it so cannot recommend it, but by all accounts, it’s a worthy alternative. Note that it has a glossy finish so would probably not be ideal in an office environment but would be great for gaming in a dark room. I use my monitors for both work and play and they need to function in bright rooms.

TV: LG C2 77-inch evo OLED TV

The LG C2 77-inch evo OLED TV is the best high-end TV for the money. The TV combines stunning picture quality with terrific gaming prowess. I prefer the C2 to the higher-end G2 as I can’t tell the difference between them. However, I prefer the C2 to the lower-end B2 especially with HDR as it gets brighter and highlights pop more. The C2 also has better gradient handling, resulting in less distracting banding. The 77” is currently on sale for $2,499 and the 65” for $1,699. Both are amazing buys and when it comes with TVs, bigger is better! However, the 83” sells for $3,999 and is not worth it.

Soundbar: Sonos Arc

It would be shame to have an amazing TV like the LG C2, without amazing sound. That’s where the Sonos Arc comes in. It’s a gorgeous soundbar offering premium surround sound without the need for supplementary speakers. It’s super easy to setup. It sounds incredible and it often feels like the sound is coming at you from all angles. I also do not think you need a subwoofer with the Arc as there is more than enough powerful bass to feel the on-screen explosions. It’s the perfect complement for your TV.

Projector: Epson EpiqVision Ultra LS800 Ultra Short-Throw Laser Projector

Two years ago, I recommended the Optoma CinemaX P2. Sadly, the salt and humidity in the air of Turks and Caicos killed it so I went projector shopping again. I ultimately settled on the Epson EpiqVision Ultra LS800. It’s amazing and a huge step up from the Optoma P2. It’s incredibly bright with 4,000 lumens (vs. 3,000). It can display images up to 150” (vs 120”). It has by far the shortest input lag of any projector in its class making it the only ultra-short-throw projector I would recommend for gaming. It’s super easy to setup. It has amazing sound with two full-range 5-watt speakers and a 10-watt subwoofer in a package that is essentially an integrated soundbar given the LS800’s width. In fact, it’s so good, I don’t use external speakers with it. It’s the ultra-short-throw projector to get.

Streaming Device: Apple TV 4K

Modern TVs like the LG C2 do not need a streaming device as it’s simpler to use the built-in apps especially since they now support Airplay. However, the Epson Ultra LS800 does not have a RJ-45 jack. In Turks I only have the VPN with a US IP address (to be able to watch US shows) on the wired network. As a result, I got the brand-new Apple TV 4K with Ethernet and 128Gb of storage and use it to stream on the Epson.

It’s expensive for what it is, but it’s the one of the best streaming devices on the market especially if you are used to Apple user interfaces and its ecosystem. The A15 Bionic chip makes it blisteringly quick which addresses one of my key criticisms of prior iterations.

If you prefer the Apple UX/UI and want a modern streaming device, you cannot go wrong with this one.

Notebook: LG Gram 17 Ultra-Slim PRO

I switched to the LG Gram 17 a few years ago to use when I travel, and I never looked back. It’s by far the lightest 17” notebook on the market at just over 3 pounds. The power adapter is exceedingly small and light. I regularly get over 10 hours per charge and feel like I never need to charge it.

My only gripes were that it was underpowered, but they addressed the issue with the 2022 version. It now comes with 32Gb of RAM, a 2TB SSD and a GeForce RTX 2050 graphics card. This is the notebook to get. Note that I do not game on it, as I have desktops with much more powerful graphics cards at my homes. I used to recommend gaming laptops, but they run ridiculously hot, the battery life is extremely limited (under 2 hours), and they are bulkier than I would like. However, if you want a notebook that you can game and work on there are great options from MSI and Asus.

Console: Xbox X & PS5

It was hard to recommend buying them until this year as they were both really hard to find and you had to massively overpay if you wanted them. Moreover, the lack of amazing new games did not make them a must buy. However, with the release of Elden Ring, it became imperative that I buy them as I prefer to play third person action role playing games (RPGs) on console than on PC. Luckily, this coincided with the consoles becoming more available.

If you can afford it, I would get both. The Xbox X is marginally more powerful and has slightly better graphics as a result. I also like the feel of the Xbox controller better in my hands. However, the PS5’s controller is objectively better and there are better first party games on the PS5 right now. I typically play games available on both consoles, like Call of Duty, on the Xbox. The exception is Elden Ring which for some reason looks marginally better on the PS5.

My biggest gripe remains the dearth of games I want to play on them. Once I finish a game, they gather dust for months while I await the release of the next game that interests me. Right now, I am about to play God of War Ragnarök which requires a PS5. I am eagerly awaiting the release of GTA 6, new Naughty Dog games, Starfield and many others, but who knows when they will release.

BTW do not allow cross-play with PC users when playing on console. A keyboard and mouse are just far more precise and it will ruin your gaming experience.

Video Games: Elden Ring & Age of Empires 4

I have a been a fan of real time strategy (RTS) games since the release of Dune 2 in 1992 and of the Age of Empires franchise specifically for 25 years. A year ago, Microsoft released Age of Empires IV. With much improved graphics and gameplay mechanics, I fell in love with the series all over again. It has been a lot of fun play online with my friends. Admittedly the game was not polished upon release and was missing many features. All of these have been addressed and the game is now well balanced and in a very good place. It’s the best RTS on the market right now and I encourage you to try it.

Likewise, I have been a huge fan of From Software Souls games for a long time. However, their linear design and extremely challenging difficulty level made it hard to recommend to normies. Elden Ring changes that. By combining the Souls formula with a gorgeous open world, From Software has created a masterpiece. If a boss is too strong for you, you can just bypass it and explore the rest of the world until you leveled up enough to take it on. The lore and story are riveting, and as per usual you are not spoon-fed anything. You get to figure out the story and decide where to go and what to do next. Expect to die many times as you “git gud,” but the sense of accomplishment from finally defeating that foe will make it all worth it. The multiplayer system, while still clunky, is the best in the series, and I was able to essentially play the entire game in co-op with my brother which was super fun. Note if you are new to Souls games I would recommend starting as an Astrologer which is the easiest class to play. We played through the game in about 100 hours and there are hundreds of other hours of content awaiting us. I can’t wait for the DLC to come out.

Fitness Tracker: Apple Watch Ultra

I have been part of the Fitbit ecosystem for years. I used the Fitbit Charge 5 since it came out (and the Charge 4 and 3 before then). I love the Charge 5 because of its simplicity and 7-day battery life. However, what has been annoying me continuously is that they keep breaking on me. I break at least 5 per year. I suspect that they do not like all the water I subject them to through kite surfing, and my daily hot tub and hot bath ritual. Alternatively, perhaps it does not like my adventures in the extreme cold. Fitbit replaces them for free every time, but it’s a pain in the neck to deal with..

When my Fitbit Charge 5 broke (yet again) a few weeks ago, I bit the bullet and bought the Apple Watch Ultra. I don’t love that the battery only lasts a day, so I charge it while I am working at my computer to make sure it has enough battery life to track my sleep. So far, I am very happy with it. It feels very sturdy, albeit a bit heavy, but the fitness, sleep and health tracking functions are second to none.

I will be putting it through its paces with lots of kitesurfing, extreme skiing, and my upcoming trip to Antarctica. Based on what I have seen so far, I think it’s going to be the watch for me for a very long time, or at least until the next version comes out 😉

Ride On Remote Controlled Car: 4WD Can-Am from CarTots

This is the perfect gadget for anyone with kids ages 0-5. François absolutely adores being driven in them. I bought a few of these for New York, Turks, and Revelstoke. You can fit two kids in them. You can drive them yourself with the remote, or when they are old enough, they can drive themselves with the functioning gas pedal and steering wheel.

The 4WD Can-Am is by far the best car I tested. It’s the most robust and can handle difficult terrain. I drove it on gravel and sand uphill and downhill with no issues. You can play music on it, and it has two batteries giving it the best battery life of the cars in its class.

With one of these, your progeny will be the cool kid on the block.

Crypto: Ledger Nano X

The downfall of FTX has strengthened the notion of “not your keys, not your coins” and the purpose and viability of DeFi in general. Most people should just buy and hold some BTC or ETH on Coinbase which is a regulated exchange. However, if you are more sophisticated, I would highly recommend you do self-custody with a Nano Ledger X.

I won’t lie that it’s a pain to setup. It’s an even bigger pain to use as you need to re-authenticate yourself continuously even with the longest setting, and you must manually verify every transaction, but that’s the entire point: better safe than sorry.

Note that I would only recommend this for technically savvy users who are doing more than just holding BTC and ETH on Coinbase which I consider to be an easier, safe, and viable alternative. However, at this point, I would NOT hold any coins on any centralized exchanges unless they are regulated and audited. I would not even trust Binance, though I have no indications they have done anything wrong with customer deposits.

Also note that you need to be extremely thoughtful about what you do with your recovery phrase in case you lose your Ledger. I keep mine split between different safes at different locations with different people who can access each of them, not that this matters much at this point as I sold most of my crypto between November 2021 and January 2022.

Wireless Headphones: HyperX Cloud II Wireless

I have been a fan of HyperX headphones for a very long time. They are incredibly comfortable, the sound quality is amazing, they block out external noises effectively and most importantly for me the microphone is noise cancelling allowing you to be able to Zoom from noisy environments without anyone on the call noticing. I recently upgraded all my headphones to the wireless version because I like to walk around during calls as I feel the blood flowing through my brain allows me to think better, not to mention it’s healthier. At my desk I use the Cloud II Wireless. I like that it’s USB-C and love the feel on my ears.

I travel with the HyperX Cloud Flight S because you can rotate the earcups which allows the headset to fit better in my eBags Pro Slim Laptop Backpack.

My only gripe with them is that they don’t support Bluetooth. You must use their USB dongle which works on PCs and the PS5. However, on my iPhone, I must connect the dongle to a lightning to USB connector, which works, but is far from ideal.

Chair: Herman Miller Embody Gaming Chair

I have been a huge fan of Herman Miller chairs, starting with the Aeron, before switching to the Embody years ago because I found it more comfortable. It’s an amazing chair and I love the gaming trim. It’s currently on sale on sale so I bought a few for every place I live and work in.

Streaming Microphone: Blue Yeti X

As I embarked on my Playing with Unicorns journey, I tested numerous microphones and headphones. Ultimately, I settled on the Blue Yeti X. The sound quality is excellent, and it is easy to setup and install.

Streaming Earphones: earHero

The earHero earphones are a great complement for the Blue Yeti X. They are invisible. No one can see you are wearing them, and they allow you to avoid noise pollution from your speakers into the microphone.

冬天來了！

我最近一直在宏觀考慮。 在某些時期，宏觀勝過微觀。 在那些時刻，所有資產類別都與繁榮時刻上漲的 1 相關。 盡職調查被排除在外，市場無法將出色的公司與舊公司區分開來。 同樣，在經濟蕭條時期，所有資產類別都與下跌的 1 相關。 市場把嬰兒和洗澡水一起扔掉。

在過去的18個月里，我們一直生活在這樣的時代。 2021年2月，我在 《歡迎來到一切泡沫 》一文中指出，負實際利率和激進的擴張性財政政策正在助長所有資產類別的泡沫，現在是積極拋售高估資產的時候了。 今年3月，我在 《巨大的未知》一書中指出，人們嚴重低估了全球經濟面臨的風險。 自那以後，這些風險只增不減。

@20vc_tok

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♬ Violin – Grooving Gecko

看跌全球經濟是目前的共識。 像往常一樣，我是逆勢的，但在這種情況下，我的逆向觀點是共識還不夠看跌。 大多數人都在為2023年的某種形式的軟著陸或溫和衰退做準備。 我們遠未陷入絕望的山谷，所有希望都已喪失。 任何不如預期糟糕的消息都會讓市場撕裂。 這發生在上周，當時CPI數據為7.7%，而不是7.9%，或者當人們興高采烈地迎接加息速度可能放緩的消息時。 請注意，通貨膨脹率仍然居高不下，即使增長率可能下降，利率仍在上升（例如，二階導數為負數，但一階導數仍為正數）。

有九個因素推動了我的看跌情緒。

1. 利率可能比人們預期的要高，持續時間可能比人們預期的要長

在 9 月 20 日至 21 日的 FOMC 會議之前，人們一直在承銷美國聯邦基金利率將達到 3.5% 的峰值。 目前為 3.75% 至 4%，預計 2023 年將達到 4.6% 的峰值，然後再次下降。

今年早些時候，我擔心沒有人考慮利率高於5%的後果，因為他們沒有考慮在可能性範圍內。 這是過去一年中共識一再錯誤的一個領域。

由於通脹仍然居高不下，並且隨著工人開始要求根據預期的通脹上升要求加薪，通脹率可能不得不在比人們預期的更長的時間內大幅提高。 如果利率最終達到 5.5% 或更高，並在 2024 年或更長時間內保持高位，我不會感到驚訝。

2. 強勢美元正在新興市場製造主權債務危機

大多數新興市場的債務以美元計價，但稅收以當地貨幣計價。 美國利率上升，加上非常高的通貨膨脹率，以及經常自我造成的經濟錯誤，正在使美元大幅走強。

這一增長使許多新興市場處於岌岌可危的境地。 斯里蘭卡已經違約。 迦納和巴基斯坦看起來是下一個，還有許多其他國家面臨壓力。

3. 高油價將導致德國經濟衰退

過去幾十年來，德國的商業模式一直是用廉價的俄羅斯天然氣製造東西，然後出口到中國。 這種商業模式正面臨雙方的壓力。 俄羅斯關閉北溪可能會使德國沒有足夠的天然氣來供暖其人口併為其依賴天然氣的重工業提供燃料。 配給和物價上漲將導致德國在2023年陷入衰退，根據冬季的持續時間和嚴重程度，估計GDP將收縮0.4%至7.9%。

4. 新的歐元危機迫在眉睫

希臘在2007-2008年金融危機之後幾乎打壓了歐元。 許多歐洲國家的財政狀況，尤其是PIGS（葡萄牙、義大利、希臘、西班牙）的財政狀況現在比當時要差得多。

債務水準如此之高，以至於這些國家的借貸成本不會大幅增加，就會破產。 最大的風險可能來自義大利，其債務與GDP的比率目前超過150%，其經濟規模是希臘的十倍。 更糟糕的是，該國選出了一個極右翼的民族主義政府，在歐洲可能找不到很多友好的面孔，尤其是在德國正處於能源危機之中的情況下。

我懷疑，當危機發生時，歐洲將不惜一切代價保護歐元，但這個過程將是極其痛苦的。

5. 銀行業危機即將來臨

今年早些時候，我預測瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）和瑞銀（UBS）可能會違約，從而拖垮瑞士。 這些銀行發現自己處於最近每一次涉及不良貸款的國際崩潰的中心，例如Archegos、Greensil、Luckin Coffee等。 以外幣計價的貸款本身就相當於瑞士GDP的~400%。 據官方統計，瑞士銀行系統資產是 ~ 4.7 倍 GDP，但這不包括資產負債表外資產。 包括這些表明 ~9.5x 10x 的比率更準確。

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♬ Suspense, horror, piano and music box – takaya

從那時起，市場開始意識到瑞士信貸的疲軟。

歐洲銀行普遍處於弱勢地位。 他們擁有大量政府債務，這將使他們面臨 PIGS 可能的債務重組。 他們以極低的利率發放了抵押品很少的抵押貸款，並將遭受利率上升和房地產價格下跌的影響。

此外，他們沒有像美國同行那樣建立大量儲備。 如果出現全面的信任危機，不難想像，當銀行試圖避免交易對手風險時，整個銀行體系都會陷入困境，從而導致大規模金融危機。

6、 房地產價格即將下跌

與所有其他資產類別一樣，房地產價格在過去十年中大幅上漲。 現在，在美國和全球大多數地方，房地產都被高估了。

與其他資產類別相反，儘管抵押貸款利率在過去18個月中從2.5%上升到7%，但房地產價格尚未調整。 賣家需要一段時間來調整他們的價格預期，因此流動性首先枯竭，然後價格下跌。

在過去7個月中，德克薩斯州奧斯丁等城市的價格已經下跌了3%以上。 如果我們在未來24個月內看到全國下降15%以上，我不會感到驚訝。

這種情況正在全球發生。 紐西蘭房價在過去11個月中下跌了10.9%。 預計瑞典的房價將從峰值下跌20%。 加拿大和英國似乎特別脆弱，因為大多數消費者擁有浮動利率抵押貸款，面臨利率大幅上升的風險。

7. 烏克蘭和俄羅斯的持續衝突將使糧食、天然氣和石油價格居高不下

衝突看不到盡頭。 在繼續的同時，鑒於價格是由供應限制而不是高需求驅動的，無論利率水準如何，糧食、天然氣和石油價格都將保持高位，保持高通脹。

這甚至沒有考慮到如果在衝突期間使用戰術核武器會發生什麼，其後果將是難以想像的。

8. 中國不再是經濟增長和通貨緊縮的力量

幾十年來，中國一直是全球經濟增長和通貨緊縮的推動力之一。 中國以低成本和大規模製造的能力説明控制了通貨膨脹，使世界受益匪淺。

這不再是真的。 習近平對中國經濟的無能管理，包括清零政策、反技術監管和普遍的反資本主義政策，已經壓垮了該國的經濟增長。

此外，他的沙文主義政策正在導致中國與西方的脫鉤和供應鏈的解體。 將這些供應鏈轉移到印度、印尼、墨西哥或返回在岸的過程是通貨膨脹的，因為世界失去了過去 30 年所受益於的專業化和規模經濟。

從好的方面來看，大多數軍事專家認為，中國在未來五年內將不具備入侵臺灣的兩棲能力。 雖然這把地緣政治達摩克利斯之劍仍然懸在全球經濟上空，但感覺清算的日子還沒有到來。

9. 結構性地緣政治風險較高

冷戰後的協約正在瓦解。 我們正在進入一場新的冷戰，在這場冷戰中，西方與中國、俄羅斯、伊朗和朝鮮對峙。 烏克蘭衝突使這一動態變得清晰可見。 俄羅斯正在與伊朗製造的無人機，朝鮮製造的火炮作戰，而中國的習在聯合國和世界舞臺上都有普京的支援。

這場新的冷戰可能以多種方式導致可怕的結果：

  • 烏克蘭核電站發生核衝突或髒彈或事故。
  • 台灣戰爭。
  • 西方對基礎設施的網路攻擊不斷升級。
  • 利用技術破壞西方民主國家的穩定，例如，俄羅斯和中國在美國的選舉拖釣。

所有這些都使世界變得不那麼穩定，侵蝕了法治，並增加了災難性左尾後果的風險。

結論

這九個因素中的任何一個都足以造成全球經濟衰退。 令我擔心的是，它們都在同時發生和上演，這表明2007-2008年大蕭條的重演可能即將到來。

我通常是房間里最樂觀的人，自2006年以來，我從未如此悲觀。 我仍然從概率的角度思考，但現在我認為嚴重衰退的可能性勝過溫和衰退的可能性，而溫和衰退又勝過任何樂觀的結果。

為了完成，值得一提的是，這些事情會讓我重新評估我的概率，權衡更樂觀的結果。 如果烏克蘭/俄羅斯衝突得到明確結束，通貨膨脹得到控制，我會變得更加樂觀。 同樣，中國也有可能在2023年通過調整新冠疫情規則和解決房地產崩盤問題來帶來驚喜。

怎麼辦

儘管通脹率居高不下，但我會出售價格仍然合理的資產，或者在熊市反彈時出售，以建立美元現金儲備，以便在即將到來的危機中以低價進行投資。 如果我的閱讀是錯誤的，我懷疑資產價格不會恢復，你總是可以以與退出時相似的價格重新進入。 我重新進入市場的那一刻，尤其是風險資產，是利率再次開始下降的時候。

然而，如果我是對的，大多數資產類別將變得非常有趣，不良資產將變得特別引人注目。 這將是自2008-2009年以來的第一個真正的困境週期。 我預計不良債券、房地產甚至加密貨幣都會有很多機會。

此規則的例外情況是，如果您的房地產利率非常低，則有 30 年期固定抵押貸款。 在這種情況下，即使價格下跌 15-20%，您最好保留您的房地產，因為按照目前 7% 的抵押貸款利率，您購買房地產的能力將受到高達 50% 的損害，具體取決於您支付的利率有多低。 此外，通貨膨脹目前高於您支付的利率，從而減少了您的實際債務負擔。

我還會減少你的年度支出，以建立現金儲備，以防經濟衰退導致你失業。 償還所有可變高息貸款，例如信用卡債務，但保留低息債務。

歷史勝過宏觀

與此同時，目前唯一可以投資的地方是處於早期階段的私營科技初創公司。 早期估值是合理的。 創始人專注於他們的單位經濟效益。 他們正在限制現金消耗，至少在兩年內不必進入市場。 初創公司面臨著更低的客戶獲取成本和更少的競爭。 雖然退出時間將推遲，退出倍數將低於過去幾年，但這應該通過較低的入場價格以及獲勝者將贏得整個類別的事實來彌補。

對於這些初創公司來說，重要的宏觀是6-8年後他們尋求退出的宏觀環境，而不是當前的環境。 就目前而言，重要的是他們籌集到足夠的現金並增長到足以進行下一次融資，因此暫時避免資本密集型行業。

過去十年中最好的創業投資是在2008年至2011年之間進行的（Uber，Airbnb，Whatsapp，Instagram），我懷疑2020年代最有趣的投資將在2022年至2024年之間進行。

從長遠來看，歷史勝過宏觀。 我對世界和經濟的未來仍然非常樂觀。 自1950年以來，這11次經濟衰退持續了2至18個月，平均持續時間為10個月。 我們將從中走出來。 此外，如果你退後一步，過去 200 年是技術進步和創新的歷史，儘管經歷了無數次戰爭和經濟衰退，但人類狀況得到了改善。

@20vc_tok

What trends break through recessions? #recessionproof #futureproof #FabriceGrinda #techtrends #technology #macroeconomics #FJLabs #HarryStebbings #20VC #techhistory #futureinvestements

♬ Stories 2 – Danilo Stankovic

由於技術的發展，西方普通家庭的生活品質是昔日國王無法想像的。 由於規模經濟、網路效應、知識和製造中的正反饋迴圈（也稱為學習曲線）以及企業家希望開拓盡可能大的市場並盡可能大規模地影響世界，新技術迅速民主化。

這導致了結果平等的大幅增加。 100年前，只有富人去度假，有交通工具，室內管道或電力。 今天在西方，幾乎每個人都有電、汽車、電腦和智能手機。 幾乎每個人都去度假，買得起飛機。 我們理所當然地認為，我們可以在幾個小時內前往世界的另一端，除了擁有免費的全球視頻通信外，我們還可以獲得人類知識的總和。 在印度，一個擁有智慧手機的窮鄉僻壤，比30年前的美國總統更容易獲得資訊和通信。 這些都是了不起的壯舉。

儘管取得了所有這些進展，但我們仍處於技術革命的起步階段。 最大的經濟部門尚未實現數位化：公共服務、醫療保健或教育。 大多數供應鏈仍處於離線狀態。 他們的數位化將使它們更有效率，並實現通貨緊縮，這反過來又將是包容性的。

在FJ Labs，我們遇到了許多非凡的創始人，他們正在解決21世紀的問題 ，氣候變化，機會不平等以及身心健康危機，我們樂觀地認為人類將迎接我們時代的挑戰。

在正確閱讀宏觀茶葉並在 2021 年盡可能多地出售我們的後期和加密貨幣頭寸后，我們發現自己處於現金充裕的位置，只部署了 25% 的資金。 作為逆向投資者，我們現在正在非常積極地投資於輕資產企業，並且非常榮幸能夠幫助建設一個更美好的明天世界，一個機會均等、富足、具有社會意識和環境可持續性的世界。

接下來的幾年將是艱難的，但現在是建設的最佳時機，我們將比以往任何時候都更強大、更好。

Investing in the things that build our world

By Matias Barbero and Fabrice Grinda

Those of us building and investing in tech spend most of our time thinking about the future. We ponder the impossible, the cutting edge, even the esoteric: software, artificial intelligence, crypto, asset-light services delivered through digital apps. Mars and outer space might often represent a larger share of one’s daily musings than dull terrestrial matters. Yet here we are. We live on planet Earth. We inhabit the physical world, at least for now! Almost everything we do in our daily lives involves – directly or indirectly – tangible materials, machinery, chemicals, etc. We want to push the boundaries of how our world currently works by digitizing legacy industries and making them more efficient. All of this is deflationary, making goods cheaper for everybody, which in turn is inclusionary, aligning with our overarching purpose as investors.

The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed. That’s true for different industries, as it is for different countries around the globe. Consumer marketplaces have a huge head start over their B2B counterparts, for example. There are also varying levels of tech adoption across geographies. B2B marketplaces have been at the core of FJ Labs’ thesis in recent years and are one of the best tools with which entrepreneurs can take on the challenges and limitations present in the physical realm.

Within our B2B marketplace thesis, we focus on many different verticals, including staffing, FMCG, wholesale commerce, and others. Today we want to zoom into one of the categories: marketplaces dealing inputs and raw materials, or put differently, the things that build our physical world. This excludes other very compelling B2B marketplace categories such as staffing and labor, food and beverages, services, logistics, and many others.

Let’s double click on the focus of this post: inputs and raw materials. They all deal with physical components and help build our world, in the most literal sense. Under this definition, some of what we consider “inputs” could be deemed by others as “outputs” too, but for today’s purpose we view things like precision parts and heavy machinery as key “inputs” in the value chain that build the most prevalent things in our world.

We could look at this thesis from two different dimensions (see table below): A. Across different categories such as raw materials, precision parts, or heavy machinery, and B. Across different verticals like construction, agriculture, and many others. Note that through this lens Boom & Bucket, for instance, belongs both to the ‘heavy machinery’ category and the ‘construction’ vertical.

Let’s use the “raw materials” category as an example. Besides steel and chemicals, there could also be marketplaces for concrete, sand and gravel, minerals, among others. There are still many other companies to be built in each category and across verticals. We’re excited to see the creativity with which entrepreneurs tackle each of these.

We will cover two companies that are disrupting their respective industries: Reibus and Knowde. These are just two case studies we’ll be using today to highlight and layout important points within this broader thesis, but we see lots of opportunities ahead and we’ll conclude with some insights and comments for entrepreneurs to consider when exploring them.

My Chemical Romance

The chemical industry is ~$5 trillion in size and supports roughly 25% of the world’s GPD. The vast majority of the chemicals manufactured are used to make every physical product we love. If you’re reading this from an iPhone, if you’re wearing your favorite Nike’s today, or if you’re enjoying your midday salad, all roads will lead to chemicals in some way or another.

You would think that such an important industry would be supported by the latest technology, with streamlined and efficient internal processes to ensure a key layer in the world’s supply chain runs smoothly. But stakeholders in the chemical industry are operating the same way they did 100 years ago: sellers are offline and have not caught up with ecommerce advances, the buying process is extremely inefficient with transactions done over phone calls and emails, and product information is ridiculously opaque, lost in static pdf documents and a fragmented supply base.

Our portfolio company Knowde is out to solve this by bringing the entire buying experience online. They are building a Shopify and Amazon hybrid model whereby sellers can create their online storefronts with ecommerce, payments, and fulfilment capabilities while aggregating the collective supply under the Knowde umbrella so buyers can have a one-stop-shop for their chemicals.

There are different tactical ways in which a B2B marketplace can go about their go-to-market strategy; Knowde chose to start by tackling the opacity of the chemicals market through a relentless focus on search and discovery.

In practice, this means laying the groundwork of what will later become a fully online transactional marketplace. Until there’s enough liquidity on the supply side to ensure smooth transactions, the initial business model is predominantly based on storefronts monetized through SaaS in lieu of the traditional marketplace take rate.

This hyper-focus is yielding impressive results for Knowde as they are currently adding around 5 new suppliers per day (!) to their platform. To put matters into perspective, there are ~15k total global sellers and ~8k of them already have a live storefront with Knowde. This is roughly half of the world’s supply in one platform. Once they become the de facto industry destination for suppliers, there’s a clear path to keep upgrading key accounts into paid subscriptions and ultimately enabling online transactions, among many other value-added services.

Pedal to the Metal

We can’t have a proper conversation about the things that build our world without a word on steel. This raw material is as prevalent as it gets. From forks and knives to NYC’s skyscrapers; from refrigerators and washing machines to cargo ships cruising around the world. Since the late 19th century, steel has become a synonym for our modern infrastructure.

Manufacturers and distributors transact steel (think sheets, coils, bars coming out of steel mills) with OEMs who then use it to manufacture components and end products.

Another trillion-dollar global industry (starting to see the common appeal here?) fraught with inefficiencies and lack of innovation. There are structural issues coming from decades of stale and offline processes, exacerbated by logistical headaches proper of a heavy product that is expensive to move.

Reibus, one of FJ’s portfolio companies in this category, is a B2B marketplace servicing the industrial metals industry (mainly steel and aluminum) with purpose-built features for both buyers and sellers. What does this mean concretely? They provide much more than just a matching platform: Reibus embeds fintech (financing, payment options, etc.) and logistics capabilities (digital brokerage, shipment dashboard, etc.). They are a heavily managed SaaS-enabled marketplace.

Industry stakeholders were quick to adopt Reibus’ hands-on marketplace. Founded in 2018, Reibus has scaled in-platform transactions to several hundred million in annual GMV, with plenty of room to grow as they are still a tiny fraction of the offline market.

Building inputs & raw materials B2B marketplaces

We’re truly excited about this opportunity to invest in the things that build our world and think there are many unexplored avenues for future entrepreneurs to start new B2B marketplaces aligned with this input & raw materials thesis. As discussed at the beginning of this post, there are countless areas to explore and we see a lots of openings across both categories and verticals, and even geographic arbitrage plays.

It’s important to bear in mind, though, that not every industry will be suited for a marketplace model, and that certain conditions and core strengths will play an important role in the success of these ventures.

  1. Founder-market-fit matters: B2B marketplaces benefit from having at least one founder who is a true industry insider. They lived through the pain points in the industry and have been deeply frustrated by them. They would ideally combine this first-hand industry knowledge with a co-founder and/or founding team member that could think from first principles on how to best design frameworks to dramatically improve the current experience. They also have the credibility to convince existing players to change their processes. Just to name some examples, John Armstrong, Reibus’ CEO, had bought $1bn+ of materials before starting his tech entrepreneurial journey, and Knowde’s CEO, Ali Amin-Javaheri, spent 10+ years working for ChemPoint, an incumbent in the space he began to disrupt right after he left.
  2. Marketplace dynamics: Ask yourself if the buyer and seller base is fragmented enough. This is true for most marketplaces but especially true in B2B where many verticals are concentrated on the supply side. The more concentrated the industry, the harder it is to have a meaningful take rate. In fact, you may be merely a distributor for a few incumbents rather than a real marketplace if the market is concentrated enough. The incentive and easiness to circumvent your platform would also be higher.  
  3. Find your unlock: Aggregation is often not sufficient. The platform should quickly focus on value-added services to create strong value propositions for both supply and demand. Founders need to figure out which specific services or features will unlock the greatest amount of liquidity for the marketplace. For Knowde, it was solving discovery and price opacity with information locked into siloed pdfs. For Reibus, it was offering financing and logistics services.
  4. Different paths to start monetizing: Charging a take rate on each transaction is the classic way a marketplace can begin to generate revenue, but it shouldn’t necessarily be the first choice in the monetization toolkit, and it’s certainly not the only one. In some cases, you cannot charge a take rate right away and must find alternatives. Reibus, which leverages real material pricing in commodities to facilitate their RFQ process, was able to have a take rate from the get-go, but that would not have worked for Knowde, which needed to bring discovery online first, hence a SaaS business model made more sense in the beginning.
  5. Juice up the blended take rate: It’s often hard to take more than 1-3% in B2B marketplaces. As a result, they may also monetize through SaaS subscription or listing fees instead of, or in addition to a take rate. Moreover, revenues are usually complemented by offering and monetizing additional services: advertising/placement, financing, insurance, logistics are all options. Once network effects kick in, a mix of business models can create a multiplier effect on net revenues. Many end up being able to increase their blended revenues to 10% of GMV as a result of the monetization diversity.
  6. Geographic arbitrage: For certain businesses, you can bring an idea from one country to another. This arbitrage is not always going to be possible in B2B marketplaces for inputs and raw materials as some of the markets are truly global in nature, likely leading to global winners. Does this mean that there couldn’t be an “X model for Y country” play? No, but it’s less obvious than with other categories within the B2B marketplace realm (e.g., FMCG products, fresh food, labor, etc.). This is driven by how local the supply is, how transportable the good is, and the extent to which the price is set locally. The market for oil for instance is global – with a fungible, interchangeable commodity that can be easily transported and has a global price. Natural gas on the other hand is local, with prices that vary by region based on local supply and market conditions suggesting that regional players can emerge. That said, even if dealing with mostly global supply, startups in other regions might have a window of opportunity to focus on local differentiated supply, especially on the long tail, and compete before potentially stepping into someone else’s shoes.

Inputs & raw materials: investing in the things that build our world

Marketplaces have had many evolutions over the years. B2B marketplaces are now in their infancy but poised to catch up with the digitalization of their B2C counterparts. As a result, as counter intuitive as it sounds, we believe that many of the best opportunities lie in forgotten old industries.

We’ve been actively investing in the inputs and raw materials category and looking forward to meeting entrepreneurs thinking about these big challenges with deep industry knowledge and innovative approaches. The future of the things that build our world is only getting started.

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