My conversation with Mark Peter Davis of Interplay

I had a fun conversation with Mark Peter Davis of Interplay about my love of marketplaces and all things FJ Labs. The discussion was peppered with lots of entrepreneurial advice and thoughts on impact.

Their Episode Description:

This week I chatted with Fabrice Grinda, Founding Partner at FJ Labs. FJ Labs is a VC that specializes in marketplaces and invests in every geography in every category at any stage. As Fabrice puts it they do angel investing at venture scale, meaning they don’t lead rounds but do a massive number of investments every year. Last year they made almost 200 investments.

Fabrice is super interesting beyond being a VC. He’s been a serial entrepreneur for a couple of decades at this point and has interesting views on wealth and impact.

He started what was essentially the ebay for Europe and then OLX, the Craigslist for the rest of the world.

During our chat he shares some incredibly useful tips for entrepreneurs – especially for those who are interested in marketplaces. We talk all about his approach to venture capital, how FJ Labs operates and makes decisions and much more. Enjoy.

Show Links:

Transcript (this is an automated transcript):

MPD: Fabric, thanks for being here. 

Fabrice Grinda: Thank you for having me. 

MPD: I’ve been very excited to have you on I think you’ve got a lot of wisdom and you do something that most people don’t do and that you practice radical candor. It feels like in everything, every time I’ve ever talked to.

So I think we’re going to get into some really interesting topics today. And I think I have a feeling you’re going to share more than people normally comfortable with, which I think is very powerful. You’re going to help a lot of people. Let’s start though. Let’s level set this can you give an overview of FJ labs?

I think people need to know what you’re doing for your day job before we extend beyond. Sure. 

Fabrice Grinda: So my current day job is to be the founding partner at FJ Labs which is a venture fund – actually it’s an accidental venture fund. It really came out of my angel investing activities while I was an interpreter.

So for the last 24 years, I’ve been building companies, I’ve been running companies and. Other founders kept approaching me for me to invest some of them. And for the longest time I thought they were, should I be doing this right? Is it a distraction from my core mandate as a founder to be investing in other startups?

And I’m like, if I can articulate lessons to learn to others it probably means I’ve internalized them. And so it’s okay. And meeting all these amazing founders beyond helping them realize their dreams is also an amazing way to keep my fingers on the pulse of the market. So by 2013, when I sold my last company, which by the way, was like dried or missing.

I don’t know if you want to cover that until I went, the last company was real quick. So the last company was a company called oh blocks. It’s today, the biggest classified site of the world. It’s a 11,000 employees in 30 countries. It’s the leading classified site in Brazil and all black tem and Russia, Ukraine, all of these sued Europe and India, Pakistan of all the Southeast Asia and the UAE and all the middle east.

And it’s basically what Craigslist would be or should be if it was running. By someone like me, meaning a modern UX UI, integrated payments and shipping and escrow. Exactly. No, no spam, no scab, no birders, et cetera. And actually targeting primarily women in a female friendly space, given that women are the primary decision makers in all household purchases.

That companies like over 300 million new users of mothers is absolutely ginormous. And after I sold that already at 150 investments doing really well already pulled them with my current partner. And I was like, I like building companies like invest in companies. Let’s create a structure that allows me to do that.

And I never really set out to build a venture funds. And I think by virtue of being visible, I started being approached by potential investors and said, Hey, we would like exposure to where you guys are doing. Do you mind if we co-invest with you? And so 2016, we took our first investor LP for 50 million, one LP outside of our own capital.

Yeah, it’s again, what I be basically they’re people that had it, it’s a company called . They were a big telco in, in Norway. And they had backed my biggest competitor when I was running about locks and ultimately we fought a big war and we merged 51 for us, 49 for them. And by then we, all of this I’d like unwell.

They’d made like a billion dollars and they ended up owning a whole bunch of classified assets around the world. And they were like, Hey, we love you. You’ve also made us a lot, lots of money. We’d like to understand what’s going on in marketplaces in the U S to either bring it to our markets or defend against disruption.

And so it was really both strategic for them. And financial in 2018 we raise fund two and they’re like, Hey, if you want to bring other people on board, why not? And other people’s sorta approaching us. So we started getting like a lot of family offices that were being disrupted by tech and a lot of other strategics were interested in investing in the category.

And so we finished deploying that and that was a hundred, 225 million finished uploading that in July of 2021. And then we close fund three, which would be like three, 400 million with either amazing founders that I’ve worked with forever, like Reed Hoffman, or, whatever Kevin, Ryan, or the founder of Wayfair or these family offices were actually strategics interested in either buying or investing leader seizures in the companies move us.

So I guess w w. That was a long-winded way to answer your question. So my day job is running FJ labs. FJ labs is an a, a venture fund specializing in marketplaces. We invest in every geography in every category at every stage. But the focus is we really do angel investing at venture scale. We don’t lead, we don’t price.

We don’t take board seats. We decide after two, one hour meetings, whether we invest or not with full transparency, we tell them why we’re investing, why we’re not investing what we need to change for us to change your mind. And we try to be as Frey, founder, friendly as possible. So we’re not setting the terms we decided very quickly.

And we’re super prolific. To give you a sense of scale to date, we’ve invested in overheat 150 startups. Last year, we invested in 281 startups, so 180 new investments or 101 followups, and it’s a lot for a venture firm and it’s been going really well. We’ve had 265 exits and so far in a 45% realized I are.

So things are good. 

MPD: That’s great. Okay. So what’s the typical investment profile. Cause when you say angel investing at a venture scale, I get the angel investing part that your, the process is less rigorous it’s you’re looking at more strategic elements rather than doing your own diligence.

I get that nothing wrong with it. The question is when you say to venture scale, is that the reflection of the volume, the amount of capital you’re managing the volume, what is it? The check size? 

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah the angel investing in venture skills really because of the overall. Capital deployment. We’re deploying a hundred million a year, 150 million a year potentially, but this funds which is way more than typical angels deploy.

Now, the reason it’s still angel investing is writing small checks relative to the lead. We don’t want to compete with the top VCs in the world for allocation. We want to be their friends. In fact, most of the deals come from friendly VCs or sharing deals with us in return. Of course, we send them all of our deals.

And so our pre-seed check size is going to be like 200 K or C check size, like 300 K or eCheck size is 3 25 or beyond words is 7 25. So it’s fixed check sizes that we’ll take lots of philosophers available and they’re always small relative to the lead. And that’s why it’s kind of angel investing in venture scale.

But I’m more than happy to talk to you and walk you through the process of how we decide whether we invest or not. If you’ve 

MPD: teed it up, let’s do it. 

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah. So actually, before I get to the process, I’ll walk me through the flow. These days, every week we get about 200 inbound deals and often many more than that.

And they come from three sources, a third comes from the friendly VCs and every eight to 12 weeks, we sit down the top hundred VCs in the world, covering every siege, every category of geography and we share deal flow. And it goes from everyone the amplifies or whatever first submitted to the pre-seed stage with the.

General catalyst, Bessemer Sequoia first walk in the middle, all the way to whatever the tigers at the leader stages, where we bring them all of our best seals. And in return Bain by to some of the deals where we have expertise. So mostly marketplaces about a third of the deal comes from fellow founders.

So at this point we’ve backed almost 2000 founders in the 835 companies. And they come back for their next company. They send us their friends. They’ve sent us their employees to becoming founders and about a third of the deals come in cold. And it actually, we review even the cold inbound deals and that 16% of the investments we’ve made have come from cold.

And some of the very best investments come from cold. So we get these seals they’re assigned randomly to one of the team members, unless someone says they want it. We we’re four partners, three associates, and one analysts. And we reviewed the deal we decide, is it appropriate or not for us or not?

And usually about. Three quarters of them are not there. They’re amazing, but they’re not for us. They’re like biotech, hardware, space SAC, and we don’t feel that we have appropriate expertise. So we review and we, the other 50, we take a one hour call and that one hour call, we try to assess four things and that’s actually the evaluation criteria.

Do we like the team? Do we like the business? Do we like the deal terms? And does it meet or pieces of where the world is heading? Now, let me double click on all four of these. Do we like the team. Every VC in the world will tell you. I only invest in extraordinary people. The thing is that’s extremely subjective.

What is an amazing team? And we’ve actually looked and thought through what it meant for founders to be very successful for us. It’s someone who is both a visionary and an execution machine. And that means someone who is extremely eloquent and as extraordinary communication skills. But that’s not enough because if you only have that, maybe you build a you build a very large company, but one that’s not profitable or it doesn’t scale, et cetera, but that’s, that is necessary.

It’s a necessary but insufficient condition. Because if you have an amazing, if you’re an amazing or rater or public speaker, you can attract better teams. You’re going to raise more money. You’re going to get better PR and you have better. But you also need to be able to execute. And we look at that, that we evaluated over the course of when our call is, how well do you understand the business, your hand?

How well do you understand you did economics? And we want you to be able to articulate even pre-launch, we want you to have done the lending page analysis and done a customer, cocky a customer acquisition cost analysis, and compare that to look at what the average order value in the industry is.

See what the net margin structure you’re expecting is. And you should be able to articulate that intelligently and the Venn diagram of people that are amazing storytellers and people that are amazing at execution is actually the intersection is very small and we want people that are both number two, Businesses that are compelling.

And for and so for many, some VCs, by the way, number one is enough. And if you’re pre-seed, pre-launch obviously will, this is the most relevant metric once you’re post-launch actually we do care, but the other three number two is, do we like the business? Which means for us, is the category large enough?

Or can it be larger enough through your execution and, or the unit economics is compelling and we are extraordinarily unit economic driven in marketplaces. And obviously this a little bit different if you’re in e-commerce is a little bit different if you’re in SAS. But we try to invest in businesses where you re.

You’re fully loaded customer acquisition costs on a net contribution margin basis after six months. And we’ll use three X your CAC after 18 months now. And ideally we don’t know what the LTV to CAC is because you have negative churn. In which case, who knows it’s 10 to one, 20 to one, et cetera.

And if your unit economics are underwater, which can happen, we want you to be able to articulate why with scale. They will automatically fix themselves. Maybe you’re in a food delivery business. And right now you’re doing one delivery per hour, you’re paying $15 an hour. Your delivery guy, your unit economics are under water, but the minute he does three deliveries an hour, it’s $5 a delivery.

And it works. Something like that. Like I don’t, it should not require every story. The multi-payer so align for you now, economics to work. And we really care about that because otherwise you may build a very large business that doesn’t make any money, which in the long run doesn’t really work out. Number three, what are the deal terms?

And we are. Yeah, nothing’s cheap and tough, but we want something that’s fair. In light of the size of the opportunity, the quality of the team, the traction that you have, 

MPD: what is fair? How do you think about that? 

Fabrice Grinda: So evaluations went up, especially in the late stage last year and, something I covered in one of my macro articles, but the median pre-seed the median valuations didn’t move up nearly as much as you might think.

And crypto falls a little bit of time that route, but then the median pre-seed for us until 2020 was like three to five pre raising one. And last year went up to six, seven, but not that much more. And so if you’re, pre-seed raising a 30, more likely than not, we’re not going to do it. The median seed used to be like re three raising at eight and nine pre and last year we went up to 12 and that’s still reasonable for us and the median a, you used to be, you’re raising seven at 22 and iRacing 10 at three.

And those are fair by our standard with relevant traction. So as your seed ran, we’re expecting you to have whatever, 150 key in GMV per month with a 10 50% take rate of the, a Rand, you’re doing 500 K in GMV and the B round, you’re doing 2 million GMV per month, more or less, it depends on the take rate you have, et cetera. Now there are exceptions, right? Like the rounds you’ve been reading about in the press are like, oh, they raise a $50 million series, a two 50 pre total, and these crazy. But yeah, we wouldn’t do those deals. There were amazing for the founders and the companies that actually I can make an argument.

Many of the companies that dies because the company, the founders raise too much money at too high, a price. They don’t grow into that valuation. And that kills the companies because of like anti-pollution provisions and it one more Sudan, Rams. It’s really one of the top reasons companies die is founders raising too much money at too high a price.

So we don’t do these deals. So the mean by the way is way higher than mean seed a and B is way higher than numbers I gave, but the media actually is not. And we’re so prolific. We have a good sense of where the market is. And so we stick to our with the exception that if you’re a returning founder for us, that has done well before we will back you, no matter what, no matter where you build, no matter the raise, et cetera, you don’t even need to take a call.

We’ll just send you the check. And so we have done a few crazy deals by that’s the reason it, also many of those deals are out of scope for us. Like we had the founders of a. Vettery, which was a labor marketplace then decided to go. And we sold a deco for a hundred million made of whatever, 8.5 extra money.

Everything was great. And then they went on to build Archer, which has an electric flying taxi company. And they’re like, we’re launching we’re pre-seed, 80 pre or whatever, a hundred pre. And we’re like, okay, here’s the check 

MPD: is those is the re-upping founders, your lumps, 

Fabrice Grinda: Ever increasing because we have 2000 founders, we backed, put it differently.

30% of the portfolio is non marketplace. And many of those are the re-upping founders which is a good sign that they have they’re coming back and they would have worked with us. But we also do like tools around marketplaces, et cetera. And we’re doing a lot of stuff. That’s like an interest things that interest us, which actually leads me to selection criteria.

Number four is your idea in line with our thesis of where the world is. And we are extraordinary thesis driven. We have a clear thesis on the future of finance, the future of food, the future of see the future of automotive, the future. And even within marketplaces, we have three core thesis on marketplaces that we look for and we want ideas that are in line with that.

And in a way we’re also mission driven, right? The reason I’m a VC, the reason I’m an investor is I, the world is facing a number of fundamental problems. We’re facing a climate crisis. The, we have a social inequality and inequality of opportunity or social injustice. We have a mental and physical we’ll be in crisis.

And the, I do not think that a. The political system is going to address any of these. And so it’s up to us as founders to use, to be solutionist to use technology, to find solutions to the world’s problems. And so it is mission driven from that perspective. I want to try to invest in companies, founders that are trying to address these fundamental problems.

And by the way, the bigger, the problem, the bigger, the economic opportunity, and it fits better in a for-profit model because this actually ends up being more scalable and more effective. And here we have it. If we’d love the team, we’d love the business. We’d love the deal terms. And we think that the ideas in library, their thesis, we invest and we can decide that in one hour.

MPD: That’s great. What’s the what are the reasons why a founder should choose to work with you guys? This is my underhand pay. 

Fabrice Grinda: And take a swim, the were former founders. So we actually know what it’s like to operate a business and we can talk extremely intelligently about the complexities of operating a business.

We’ve probably seen more marketplaces than anyone else either. And in addition to the fact that I run marketplace, I’ve run marketplaces for most of my life. And so when it comes to everything from like building liquidity, do you start with the supplier, the demand, should you go hyper-local or national or international?

W should your rake be 5% of 1% of 20% you’d have, how do you measure it? Let’s see supply demand. We’re probably more. Versed. Any other investors out there in this category in terms of being able to help you and last but not least, we’re in an ma because we don’t lead and we don’t price. And we have these amazing connections with all the other VCs, we will get you funded.

Like our superpower is we will get, if you need help raising your filling this round, we will do that for you. And more importantly, and most people do not need help raising a specific, the ran they’re typically talking to us about but if they, when they go to the a, when they go to the beach and they go to the sea, we will ensure them to whomever, like first of our grade lock and Driessen whomever is right for them.

We will make the intros and is extremely valuable for them because it directs the fundraising and makes it a lot simpler. We will give them feedback on like them, but back on the pitch on the process. And it’s also super efficient because you’d we have 850 companies in the portfolio and yet.

We’re often the most value added investor these founders have because we really focus on when to help them, we’ll do, we’ll help them right before they go fundraising the next ran and that’s the most valuable for them. 

MPD: Okay. So there, there is a implicit piece of this that I think is the most interesting.

It’s the sheer volume of your portfolio, right? There are a couple of firms out there that have huge volumes Techstars. My buddy, over at David phone number Techstars has a huge volume. He’s had a very different model than you. You have a huge volume. It’s not as common. Most firms are going out there and targeting 25 deals in a portfolio.

Is something there about what is your thinking around the optimal volume in a portfolio? 

Fabrice Grinda: First of all this is a reflection of my personality and not there’s no intelligent portfolio construction. So I actually have done the research. And what is the ideal portfolio construction by the portfolio of F J labs is completely built.

Bottom line. We meet people. If we’d like them, we invest. If we don’t like them, we don’t invest. And at the end of the year, the chips fall where they may, and it just so happens. Of course, there’s more seed deals and ideals, more aid deals and deals and CDLs, there’s more U S deals than European deals or European deals in India and Brazil deals.

And so if you look at our portfolio for a number of deals for of, we’re mostly seated a then a few B’s and very few season and not too many pre CD there. And then we’re 55% us Canada. We’re 25% Europe. We’re 10% Brazil, India. We’re like the rest of the world and really all over the world.

But it’s not by design. Now in terms of number of deals to answer your question specifically, is I diverged on portfolio construction. The I actually I think there are many problems to solve in the world and I like finding ways to address many of these because we choose not to compete with the major VCs.

We could actually not run a concentrated portfolio. So first of all, by design, if I wanted to invest in 30 companies, I would need to be a lead and I would need to ride like five, 10, $15 million trucks. Then the entire strategy. Of working with the other VCs and being their friend and other competitor becomes invalidated.

But more importantly, as a reflection of my personal philosophy, I just like, meeting lots of interesting people and being exposed to all these different areas. And I get I, now I have a great sense of what’s happening in like everything from climate to to automotive, to real estate.

And I think it’s fascinating there also the corollaries between these other industries, which are the marketplace dynamics so much closer to people suspect. I find that fascinating. And so it’s more a reflection of my personality, but that said there is data, but what is the correct portfolio size and angel listed and analysis of what your return profile looks like based on the number of deals you have.

And basically because venture follows a power law. The best deals return, do most of the returns you need to be in those best deals. And the best way to be in those best deals is essentially to be in every deal. And so the angel was study, which actually was published in peer reviewed and all that is the more diverse your professor of your portfolio, the higher your IRR and your returns that you should invest in all qualified.

And they have a definition of what qualified beans deals possible. Now, the reason most VCs are not built that way by the way, is actually driven by the LPs. So LPs heat that diversity. Because they see their jobs as themselves picking the VCs that are more specialized. So the LPs are like, oh, I’m going to have this fund.

That’s going to be my series, a B2B SAS company. I’m going to have this one. They’re going to be my series B DDC e-commerce in Europe, whatever. And they do, they’re like little funds of funds, strategy and fund that does all that for them. They really don’t like, because in a way it’s like the job they should be doing.

And so LPs are not super keen on that diversified strategy. And so it wouldn’t work for most, but it really works. And the benefit is over longer periods of time. We’re always going to be in the title. That’s solid before now and anyone fund life, by the way, we’re never going to be top decile because if you imagine a fund, eh, is hyper concentrated, they do 10 investments.

One of those is a hundred X. They’re going to be at a 10 X funds and they’re going to be topped us all, but they’re going to have massive variability, next fund they’re 10 may not hit and they made Richard money. And by the way, most VC funds actually don’t return cashflow cash money beyond the S and P the top Cortel does.

And the top quartile is actually highly correlated over, over fund life by most do not it our case. We I’ve been, if you include all of my history as an angel investor and but not as a founder, right? I’m not including my benefit. The equity I got into companies I’ve founded on the 270 exits we’ve had a 45% realize I are over 24 years either.

That’s I don’t know where that ranks. It has to be in the top 10%, maybe in the top 1% over that time, Peter. 

MPD: Given that you’re diversifying so much, is the core value add more sourcing or is it more deal selection? Because one of the things, theoretically, arguably the best portfolio is one investment, all the money in the world and the best company, the best returns, that’s it.

But the presumption there is that someone could be a good enough deal picker and get access to it. The core issue for a lot of VCs is they’re not great deal pickers. So how do you think about this? Is that the message to LPs like, Hey look, we’re good deal pickers, but we really don’t have to be because we play the game so broadly.

Is that part of the narrative for you? 

Fabrice Grinda: Not really. So we were actually would argue we’re very good deal pickers. We will buy often. We will not be in the top 0.1% of deals by the way, because we’re so sensitive on price. And we’re so sensitive on unit economics, either like we would have passed the Facebook, we would have fastened Google because neither of them had business models when they launched, nor could they articulate where those models, the, those those models were.

But we have a lot of singles and doubles and triples. So even though our portfolio is so broad, we’ve actually made money in over 50% of our exits which for a seed, mostly seed fund is extraordinary. Last year we had 41 exits, we made my name 24, we lost one in 17. And obviously you make a lot more on the 24th and you lose on the 17.

So I think we were very good pickers, number one, but two, obviously our deal flow is amazing because we built a brand as these founder friendly. Guys who’ve decided after you investor died, who were super helpful. And if you’re doing anything marketplace related, by the way, marketplace, let me define it pretty widely as if you’re building something that’s an intermediary between a seller of something and an a at a buyer or something.

And that thing could be anything. So to me, most of FinTech is the marketplace because, think of Clarita. It’s an intermediary between providers of capital. Typically the banks will give you the lines of credit and consumers that are borrowing. And many people wouldn’t think of it that way.

But to me, those dynamics, if you’re matching sellers, the buyers, regardless of the category it falls in the marketplace definition for us, which is obviously why we can invest at 300 marketplaces in a year. 

MPD: Okay. So there’s a little bit of learning here. I think you’re a bit of a pioneer in this type of volume for something outside of an accelerator incubator model.

Yeah. Whereas this model gone wrong that you had to correct. What did you learn along the way? That’s nuanced to not being a VC and not being an investor, but being a high volume VC or high volume investor, 

Fabrice Grinda: The way luck what’s I don’t know if it has gone wrong in the sense that we can typically.

First of all, I don’t think it’s necessarily easily replicable by most because we are in extraordinary privileged position to answer also part of the previous question where the deals come to us, right? Like most associates and analysts and most VC firms spend their time like networking and finding deals.

In our case, we’re like drinking at the fire hose of incoming deals and we’re reviewing the incoming deals and we would like to do more at boundaries, just we’re too busy, previewing main band. And we have the 200 Ben bands. We’d there’s. Yeah, we do miss seals as a result of that. So I D we are trying to change that to some extent, even though, so first of all, there’s the, part of the reason I can share my entire strategy online, including everything, the deal memos, the philosophy, et cetera, is even if you had all of it in your mind would encode it, even though probably hard to do without the 24 years of like ad bats of seeing 5,000 companies a year without a deal flow.

So I really replicable now where it’s gone wrong. Yep. Sorry. 

MPD: And as I say, FJ labs is a 

Fabrice Grinda: marketplace. Yes, we are our marketplace. Absolutely. We’re matching founders with money, from our LPs. And by the way, our LPs I’m the largest LP in the fund, right? Like about 450 million we’ve deployed to date, over a hundred million of that is my own money.

Maybe one 50. I actually, haven’t tried to look at it too closely because this started as a frankly personal investments for my partner. I said myself again, the accidental VC thing. One more thing. I know, I didn’t answer the question. One more thing we do very differently by the way is the following.

So we. We don’t reserve capital for follow-on. So we’ll invest that of whatever fund is currently active. The follow-ons. So we tell our, because we don’t always follow on we’ll evaluate follow-ons as though they were new investments, knowing what we know now, the company of the team would the terms, would we invest?

And often the answer is we love the team. We’d love the company, but the valuation is insane, so we’re not taking our Paratas. And so we’re, we’ve been following on and maybe 33% of the deals. But as a result, it doesn’t make sense to reserve capital fellows in a fund. So we do it in other funds, which leads me to the issues in a way we face, right?

Like the problems we face. As we have had a really hard time, much harder than ever to expected raising capital other than the capital that keep to us automatically. So we’ve had these LPs that are like friends. They’re like, here’s a check, they know 

MPD: you were, I know your success, 

Fabrice Grinda: those exactly, or strategics that we’ve worked with from across many years who want to exposure where we do or family offices.

And so there, the capital’s come, but pitching institutional investors has been really so far. We don’t have a single institutional investment partner differently. They don’t love. Anything about what I just described the hyper diversification, because they feel that in a way it’s their job to find different funds that cover different areas and hyper diversification number of deals.

They don’t like that. We’re multi-stage, they don’t like that real multi geography. They don’t like that. The follow on strategy is in whatever fund is currently active in which versus, having capital reserve followings in the original funds. And so all of that. And so it’s been, it’s taken way more time to raise capital than I would have liked.

And also as a result, we’re proudly a much smaller fund that we should be. So right now, we’ve closed for student 10 million of the new fund and you find. It’s three to 500 million, five, really a hard cap. I would like to hit it, there’ll be at least 300 million and it’s been seven months.

It’s mostly the existing investors. Re-upping yeah, there are new investors like founders that we’ve backed that have excess exited that are investing in it, et cetera. But again, we have, don’t have a single institutional investor in the fund because of all the reasons I, and I’d like to change that because the reality is we should probably, we could be a billion dollar fund with no problem.

Despite the not leading, not pricing strategy with given the volume we have if you do, if I do intelligent portfolio structured, like what is the maximum size I can deploy at pre-seed without leading to 25 K or so maximum check size, I could deploy at seed without leading it’s four 50 at AA could probably write a million.

That’d be, I could probably write 2 million and let’s see. It could be right, probably right. 5 million and up to 10 million in like the pre IPO Rams. And so if you look at all the deals last year, all the allocations we had, we could have deployed 350 million. And yet we didn’t have that level of capital.

And so we only deploy a hundred million. So what we’ve done to not run out of money after a year because our LP base is not such that I can actually. Say, oh, instead of three years, we it’s just one year and now we are re-upping they don’t want that is at nor could I, because I’m the biggest art piece.

It’s also driven by my personal cashflow. And so what we did instead is we men decrease her check sizes to not run out of capital. So currently, as I said, our HX size is 3 25 K. It could be a million or beach, X size is 7 25. It could be two and her and frankly, DHX license. So the 25 K and could be 10.

And so that’s been an issue I’m trying to address it and we’ll see if we were successful in the future now, in terms of underlying performance and access to deals, et cetera, Matt, I think B hasn’t been too much of an issue, I guess the other issue, it’s something we’ve learned as we’ve had to build a very big ops team.

The team we’re 30. Which is a lot of people are most people 

MPD: doing, cause it sounds like 10 or so those are investment professionals. What do they, yeah, 

Fabrice Grinda: so yeah. So four partners, three associates. Why now? So eight investment professionals we have two but then we have a big back office team or like the head of operations, the CFO the lawyer, the, all the accountants and the that are in the back office team.

And then we have all the support team for them. So when 

MPD: you say 200 deals a year, you mean 200 pounds of paperwork? 

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah. Let’s do a lot to do. Yeah. Everything, stock, purchase agreements, follow ons, legal approvals, exit, there’s infinite back office work to do. And actually one more thing we haven’t done is we’re currently not gap dot a gap accounting, because like, how do you do gap accounting on.

800 startups and we don’t even, we want to be the founder friendly guys and so doing an evaluation of each company in the portfolio when they’re like seed is a massive exercise that most, firms, which is another reason we haven’t been able raised institutional money. And maybe we need to have bite the bullet and do it.

In fact, we’re currently talking to Mike CBO and YC and, people like that, like how do you guys do it? And we probably need to buy that bullet at some point. But yeah it’s a lot of the issues that like you don’t think about when you’re dealing, when we’re lower volume from, 

MPD: okay, now you guys are the marketplace experts, and that’s very clear what are three rules of thumb that marketplace entrepreneurs listen to this need to know the things that are like, Hey, these are the baseline pro tips, right?

Fabrice Grinda: When you’re building your marketplace and you have your chicken neck problem the. Place to start is with supply because the sellers on the platform are financially motivated to be on the platform. And I would go to them and set said, low expectation and saying, Hey, we’re launching this. We’re free to launch at the beginning.

And we take just a rake, a B in there, but here’s the key. And here’s the pro tip. It’s easy to have infinite supply, but if you’re drown your marketplace and infinite supply and you’d have demand for it, they’re all going to turn. They’re not going to be engaged. So when you launch, you curate the very best supply for it in one vertical, in one category, maybe even in one geography, like in one zip code, and then you find demand for that.

And first of all, there are the very best. So you make sure they’re engaged. You make sure they understand where the product is. You understand what their needs. Then you find demand for them, whatever way it is. It could be sales driven. It could be marketing, it could be Google, it could be Facebook. And by the way, I actually like paid marketing to work because that means it’s scalable kind of infinitely you find demand and what you wanted to get to for that supply.

And again, very limited supply, highly curated. You want to represent. If it’s an item for sale, you want the probability of the item for sale to be about 20, 25%. That’s when you have pretty good liquidity, if it’s a services business, you want to represent at least 20% of the revenues of that provider.

And then once you have that at that scale, then you scale the supply up one more like whether it’s in the same zip code or gee sitter, adjacent category, and then you match. So you always, you start with supply, you bring them in and then you scale both always in parallel. A problem is it’s so easy to get supplied that you could launch.

I could launch a locksmith marketplace and put every lots within New York on it, but then you have no demand for it. And so the supply is going to churn. There’s gonna be no engagement and the users, we awful, et cetera. So doing that is, is key. So that’s I guess somebody human mind or like magic trick number one, magic trick.

Number two is, as you start thinking about. How do I monetize? How much do I charge? Who do I charge? And what is the correct percentages? Because you see marketplaces like stock photography, marketplaces that takes 75%. And then you have some B2B marketplaces where it’s essentially 0% rate or 0.1% because of extreme price sensitivity.

And so the correct way to assess that is you look at the less toxicity of supply and the less, the city of demands and you take your rake on the more and elastic part of the curve. And the more elastic it is, the higher the rake is that turns out that in most cases you can take 10 to 20% from the supply side, but it’s not a hardest at roll.

It really depends on how fragmented your supply and demand is. And by the way, the more fragmented it is, the better it is for you as the marketplace, right? If you’re in a market where there’s three or four suppliers and three or four consumers, You’re probably not a marketplace. You’re probably a distributor.

And your ability to price and take margin is going to be very limited. And that’s why I be very careful of playing in like highly concentrated industries. It happened to me and not really a market place, but I was I ran a company that was selling ringtones to the mobile operators.

And in the early days it was okay. But like between 2001, when I launched in 2005 and my mom, I sold in 2004, but 2005, when I left all the operators, consolidated merge with each other, like singular with, at and T Verizon with they’ll remember whom I’ll be like. And also when we went from. 50 customers.

So four and on the music come to a five and on the music company side, they all merge with each other like BMG and whatever, and EMI and whomever. And they also went from like many to three or four. And so all of a sudden there were four and five and it wasn’t an issue until we had 50 million in annual revenues.

But the minute we hit 50 million annual revenues, we started being seen by the VP level at these companies. And they started seeing us in their P and L and they started squeezing and squeezing. So in 2004, with my company, we did 50 million in revenues and 4 million in profits. In 2005, we did 200 million revenues and seven and eight in profits because they basically divided by our margin by three.

And so that’s not a marketplace, you’re a distributor, you’re a facilitator, but it’s not a proper marketplace. 

MPD: Okay. So now you guys do more than invested FJ labs. I know this is evolving. You guys have been a studio, right? You’ve been building companies. You don’t talk about what you guys do when the method for it.

Fabrice Grinda: Sure. The reason we were a studio is really, I say, bang. It’s what do I like to do? I like to build companies. I could invest in companies. I love that. And so every year we’d be coming up with ideas and it was like, try to build them either personally and go run them, which I did for a few of them or with entrepreneurs and residences.

And we created through happenstance, a program that ended up being successful. So what happened is. I don’t even remember the year, maybe 2010 or 2011. This young founder reach out to me and he’s Hey, I’m McKinsey, Harvard business school. I am I’m at HBS right now, but I’ve raise 500 K and trying to build this company.

And Eddie kept harassing me. The thing is I was running billing oil, super busy writing a relaxer. I’d like, so that 10,000 employees in 30 countries, and I was getting emails like that, like dozens every week. So I ignored him and ignored them. And one day he’s Hey, I’m at the door of your office, can we meet?

And I’m like, okay, maybe I’ll beat him. Maybe I’ll leave. Let me be. And he was building like some sort of chat roulette for competitor, and I’m like, terrible idea. Won’t work return the money to your investors, call it a day and. Cultural back the next day. He’s oh, thank you for the radical honesty and candor to when I’ve been like honest with me.

I talked to my investors, I offered to return the money and they said, no, let’s find an idea. And another idea. So now why don’t you and I look on fighting an idea together. I’d have I’d like to know the last thing I want to have time. And I kept saying, no, I kept saying no. Then he emailed me a check for $5,000.

He’s I’m going to pay you $5,000 a month to work for you. And I’m like a fight. Keep your money. Yeah. You’re super motivated clearly. Let’s let’s see if we can do this. And in a way it it was useful because it forced me. The first thing I made him do is help me filter my inbound deal flow.

And at that time it was 200 a week. It was like 40 a week. And I was like, can I teach someone else? Might Euro six K I could have fight how to evaluate a team, how to validate if the business attractive, what my thesis is what appropriate deal terms are. And can I have him, do that for me and not pass the next Uber and turns out that while he was useful, because it forced me to structure my thinking on what my Euro six were and teach them to him.

And once he started seeing all the deal flow, he started getting ideas, sorta applying the same criteria to his own ideas. And then we started 50 ideas then became 10, then five and two, then one, then we pivoted and that company became adore me and adore me is a laundry DDC, commerce subscription company, both econ not which today is I don’t know, over 200 million revenues, I don’t know, 20 million tickets.

It might be much more than that, but I’d like at least that and crushing it. And the last thing he did. And I told them too, it was like, find me your replacement. And so we started a program where we would go to the first year of business school at Harvard MIT, Wharton, Columbia, Stanford, we’d say, Hey, you’re S you’re going to join us.

Full-time during the summer between your first and second year, half the summer, you’re going to be taught venture capital. Not because we want you to be VCs, but because we want you to see where the ideas are, how to pitch how to write a great effective deck and keep your pulse on the fingers of the market, your fingers on the pulse of the market.

And number two, pap the summer, you’re going to be in the company we’re currently trying to build. So you understand what it’s like to be an early stage founder, that profile. So the reason we took these schools by the way, even. On average, we’d rather have people that don’t go to business school.

It’s frankly, it’s just an easy filtering mechanism. And, but we only wanted people who wanted to be founders. And most of them, the profile was they were product managers or city managers of one of the larger marketplaces, like Instacart or Uber or or Airbnb. And they want to now go and do it on their own.

And and there were an HBS like looking for ideas and maybe improving their skills that like finance, something like that. So they join us for the summer during their second year they’re part-time 15, 20 hours a week. Mostly helping us filter inbound deal flow. And then when we graduate.

They become full-time EIRs meaning we pay them. I don’t know where the salary was, like maybe 135 K years. I’m like that to look for ideas with us, they look for their own ideas and we meet like on a weekly basis to iterate. Now, also every twice a year, we bring the entire team investment team, everyone like in the team together once in February and once in August and July, usually my house interest in kaikos who are in Canada.

And we have to all come up with ideas that don’t exist in the world of tech that should and out of these. And we usually come up with like a hundred, a pop or 150 up opposite, two to 300 ideas a year of which they can actually go and go deeper and pick some of these et cetera. And we typically would take two weeks.

I bet there’d be some churn because some people decided to build companies that were not, for us, some people decided they don’t want to be founders after all, et cetera. And we ended up building a lot of companies like that. We some successful some not so much. So we built a company called BP, which should have been Carvana, raise 150 million and was worth 700 million in like in famously blew up.

We, the main mission is we try to have the founders fail fast. So we try to build a company. We build a company called punch show, which is like an entrenched company and it didn’t grow big enough. And so we decide close it, but then we’ve had a lot of companies that are really doing well. So we’re in Rebag, which is a handbag marketplace.

I think they’re going to do 200 million of revenues this year and I’m like that that is that the founder is amazing. We were in properly, which is a Zillow Trulia meets compass meets a open door for Canada. Absolutely crushing it. Last round was like, multi hundred billion dollar valuation we’re investors 

MPD: in that with you great company.

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah. Yeah. So I’m chairman of that one and unsure is one of the best a EIRs we’ve ever had also we’re the best founders we’ve ever had. The team is amazing. We’re in Mundey, which is a trade finance company between Mexico and the us helping us and B some Mexico export of the U S and there, they grew from zero to like tens of millions and originations in a year and a half.

Like my, my, I know that it sends really definitely over 10 million might be over 20 million now. We’re in like Seafair, a marketplace for helping shipping companies find seafarers, a work rise for shipping where we’re in a umami card versus vertical. And grocer in the Asian category, we’ve created Milko, which is a kind of Shopify for restaurants, helping people build digital brands in food and helping them operate restaurants operate better and more effectively.

Many of these that actually I ran one of them for a while, actually to 2014, 2015, I built a mobile classified site in the U S called Salud, which I then merged with wallop pop. I ran Walla pop. USAA was true, but a wallet pop. And then we merged that with let go, which now of course has merged with offer up.

So now it’s offer up and that’s a multi-billionaire company, which I ran in 20 14, 20 15. And the CTO model is as follows. Very different, very generous because we do very few. We, you come in, we pay you 135 K until you find idea, once you find the idea we put in the first seven 50. With 65% of the capital going to the team, 35% to us.

And then we commit the next 2 million at either 10 million valuation or market, if you can get better terms but we have the right invest 2 million in your next round. And and so the T it’s not at all, like some of the other studios out there where the teams get five, 10, 50%, or in our case, they started at 65% and actually real capital, right?

Like you guys have got 2.7, 5 million. So if you don’t want to go to market for the next first two years, you don’t really need to. And that model’s really worked well. Intrusive, like it’s fine. We build amazing companies. The problem is it’s time consuming and my time is not scalable. I’m still, I’m on the board of and these companies it’s the opposite model.

We’re coming up with the ideas. And often I even rent product like Rebag and lofty. I was like, I went to Ukraine and Romania and I hired the team. I re I was like scrum master. I was like, I was actually writing the stories and managing the teams. I was working day and night for them for many years.

And now I’m still on the board of like most of them ones I just mentioned. And so that model, it’s amazing. But it’s just too time consuming. And so putting that on hold for now, but we still have two or three more to build. We still have two more to build as we speak, despite the fact that we’re not recruiting a new batch and in 20, 22 

MPD: only so much for breeze.

That’s a lot of sounds like you’re spread pretty thin if you’re doing. 

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah. Yeah. Plus we have a SPAC plus the a week plus I do a lot of stuff in crypto, independently. What we do at FJ yadda I’m spread too thin as is. And so my current what I’d like to find a way to do while I. The reason I built the team to 31 is actually to do all the, a lot of the stuff I don’t like to do, which the good news is that the problem is when you’re going to something, the world sends you, the universe sends you more of that.

And so the temptation of course is to do more and more. But I need to find a way to be more scalable. And I think putting aside started the studio to spite of how much fun it is, eh, and just focusing on the venture side because it’s more scalable and POS probably more useful for humanity in the long run, but in terms of like placing bets in so many categories to try to address it, all the world’s problems is broadly a better allocation of time.

And I can tell 

MPD: you’re inspired by it. Yeah. You’ve had a lot of success. I think that’s safe to say maybe an understatement of the day. Did you grow up. 

Fabrice Grinda: Yes and no is the, which is a weird answer. My great grandmother so I greet great grandmother in the late 18 hundreds inherited a hotel from when her husband passed away.

And instead of doing the done thing and and marrying again, she had decided to just take over the hotel, which was like fully embedded. She turned it around, made it super profitable, then bought another one. Then another one, she ended up owning all of the luxury hotels in nice owning half of the residential real estate of niece, basically becoming the wealthiest thought.

And if not the wealthiest, one of the wealthiest women in the world in the late 18 hundreds She gave it all to, she had multiple children, she gave it all to, or oldest Augustus who was actually an effective manager and didn’t lose any of it, but a force by the time. But he didn’t do the same thing.

And by the time. It’s kissed took over. It was split between all of them and they all spent basically the new VAR reach. All they want to do is hang out with the queen of England and the prince of Monaco. And by the time of my grandparents’ generation, by the time my parents came along, there was basically nothing left.

And so the, I imagine a generation that had been brought up with the idea that they were going to be wealthy, never need to work. It’s the silver spoon in their math, and yet didn’t have anything already be to show for it. And so my father had started from scratch. So when w we were living, the four of them.

Brother and I have two brothers, so I’d like when we started at my brother and my parents, like in a studio apartment and he started working for this French billionaire as an endless, and they’re a leveraged buyout firm in the seventies. And so we came from, even though we had come from family that had a lot of money by the time my parents level, there was nothing left.

And so we started with nothing. I went to public school but in 1989 when I was 14 my father’s father was became grossly of the ranks. We can to CEO of the company that that, that guide bought through an LPO. And they sold it for whatever, like a billion dollars. I think my dad had a 5% of it in stock options.

And it’s like the pre not venture capital per se, but like a similar model and overnight became wealthy. And actually you retired at the age of 41, which I think was a huge mistake. But I guess it didn’t live through it because I, at that point I’d already, I was living with my grandmother and niece and then I’d left for college and probably out of ego.

I decided I didn’t want to take any require, ask for any help. So I paid for college. Most of them, I saw, for my living expenses myself. So I had to work. Like I went to Princeton and when I was 17, but I’d like to work four jobs plus build my first company to pay for it, et cetera. Whereas probably the easier thing would have been asked my parents for money.

So because at that point of time we did have money. Cause that was two years after my father had become wealthy. But because I had left kind of my parents, I was living with my grandmother. I also didn’t really notice a shift. And so I came from an upper-class family that was probably middle-class in income.

But that rose through the ranks. And then all of a sudden became wealthy at the. A 50 for me by my parents. My parents are getting, 

MPD: but from a life experience standpoint, it sounds like you had more modest sensibilities as a kid than maybe generations before you what’s. How has money changed your life now because you’ve had tremendous success?

I know that is challenging for a lot of entrepreneurs who are going through these cycles. What have been the ups and downs of this evolution for you? 

Fabrice Grinda: I don’t know first of all, as a kid, I was just built differently from everyone else in my family. I was like really serious, like until post-college I was like Shelton, for me it was all about like intellectual pursuits and getting a pluses and skipping all the grades and winning the Olympiads.

And I was completely antisocial not at all a good public speaker or. Just different. Like I cared about like studying economics and philosophy and getting a pluses and nothing else and map like no interest outside of that. And no time for anyone, including by the way, my family, I was extremely arrogant and condescending as a kid of you guys are not smart enough and worthy enough of my time and attention, including my parents, by the way, I was like, so it’s funny because in a way I was the best kid ever, like always a plus is going to bed early, not doing anything bad, et cetera, but it was also.

At difficult kid in the sense that I’d like, didn’t provide much love. It was like, yeah, you guys are not smart enough for me. Leave me be I’ve learned. And it’s interesting because I have come to value people, I think as you’ve you put the emphasis and value and things you were really good at.

And of course that I was really good at being smart and not so good at anything else. And so of course that was my prison by which to value the world. And as you become older and also more confident and successful, you’re also realize there’s so many ways to be and to live. And it’s not my ways a personal value judgment, but there are many other ways that are absolutely amazing.

That to answer your question directly it’s a little bit of a non-sequitur know. So I became wealthy and in 2004, I sold a zingy for $80 million and I own 53% of the company. So I made $43 million net of tax. It was like 26.5. And what’s interesting is in a way it didn’t change anything.

I still lived in a studio apartment for a few more years. I think the big purchase of that time, it was the next box of TV and two tennis rackets mostly driven by how busy I was. Like we were growing, we grew from 15 million in revenue. So for it’s two hundred and two oh five. I can moving offices every four months and thinking we re-did that.

And like it kept, we kept getting bigger and bigger offices and hiring. So it didn’t really hit me completely. What’s interesting is my first company where I built in 98, 99, like my company on paper is worth hundreds of millions and that it comes so easily that I didn’t realize how much money that was like at 28.

I started my bath company at 23 is like an eBay of Europe. We had a buyout offer. 300 million at 40% a company, I was going to make $120 million. And again I’m like, man, of course everyone makes money to me. Other than that, it’s just a bubble. Everything seemed easy. I did not realize how, because you, 23, you don’t know any better.

And also I never really lacked for money. And also I never really, I never money was never an objective. It’s like a means. It’s not even a Misa net. I want to be a tech founder. That’s all I wanted to be. And whether or not I was going to be financially successful was irrelevant, which is why, by the way, in 2006, After the bubble bursts and, I made I went from hero to zero basically, and was bankrupt in 2001.

Then I realized maybe I should have taken a secondary for a couple of million, which is people will offer it. And I’d be like, nah, a couple billion who need, I want to be Bebe. The founder of there’s all in. I don’t want to take money off the table, et cetera. I’d like a more to prove I want to be the ideal entrepreneur.

And of course for me, I thought like a couple of millions, nothing. It forced at that point, I was thinking that having literally nothing in my bank account that I realized, oh shit, no money is really hard to make. It’s very easy to lose. It’s very hard to make. But in 2001, when I would have built zingy.

This internet thing is it’s dead. It’s small. It’s not big and no big deal. At the end of the day, I didn’t do this for the money. I did this to be, I wanted to create something and nothing. I’d love tech. So I’m going to build a new company. It’s probably not going to be big and it doesn’t matter. Now, lo and behold, it turns out I made sure that it wasn’t dead.

Despite every company had got on web van Petlock com MCI work on everyone had got under. And at that point in time and VC soft investing, but came back and B was financially successful. Now what has done for me since is I value experiences and I value my time. And so what I use the money for is I have a, I have a Butler or a an estate manager and who’s also my chef and does all of the offline things that I don’t like to do, so I don’t cook. I don’t clean. I et cetera. I have a virtual assistant in the Philippines and managers of my entire life. I. I go heli skiing, which is extraordinary, expensive, by the way for fun. Now I don’t own any physical goods per CyberKnife. I have a house in Turks. I have a house and I have a department, New York avenue.

I have a house in Revelstoke, but I don’t have, yeah. I really have a sense of cars or clothing and luxury, et cetera, all those things. I don’t think mattered too much for me. I think physical goods are anchors. But for me it’s more using the financial success I’ve had as a means of buying Experiences.

I love helping people around me and I give millions a year, but beyond giving millions a year to charity, I actually give millions a year to my friends as a means of changing their lives and making the, making a difference on the day to day of their life. And it’s a bit non-traditional other way.

But these are people I’ve known for 20, 30 years. And so I tell them, don’t expect it to be recurring. It just happens when I have an exited where I feel you’re in need and it’s meaningful for them. And I don’t think it impacts our relationship. So I think it’s been an amazing tool and it’s also been amazing to have freedom.

Like my dream, for instance, in and FJ labs is actually not to have external investors. If it’s the maximum I can invest with my current strategy is 300 million a year. If I have 300 million a year of I owed money to deploy, I would do that and not have any external capital. That would be way easier. That would remove the part of my life that I don’t like of dealing with LPs and fundraising and like and whatever, a gap, accounting and sec registration and all that stuff.

I would do that in a heartbeat. Financial success is really a means of free personal freedom to do what you want. When you want to have the experiences you want to have and to help the people around you. 

MPD: Was there a moment when you felt like you got your sea legs with being wealthy, where it went from, figuring out what that meant for you to, okay.

I got it. I know my framework for how I want to use money to have impact my friends, my personal life, et cetera. 

Fabrice Grinda: Eh, happened automatic over time automatically like the. I soon as I add capital, I started investing in startups. So I really stayed all by angel investing in 2005 and I knew I wanted to deploy capital into.

To back the, my friends were building companies and to help them realize their dreams and to solve the problems in the world. So that immediately came to me in terms of helping my friends did that leader, but I realized how, what I started considering like a little capital could change.

It could make a difference in the lives of my friends, a friend of mine, she was running a dermatology clinic in New York and she was making whatever a half a million a year. And she decided to said to go run a cancer research, live at Harvard and make like whatever, a hundred K a year. Profound difference in her income yet for the world.

I thought I was like a massive net positive contribution, but as a result, she could no longer afford like the down payment or a house in Boston. So I paid that for her and I think it’s the right thing for you and your husband and your kids to be able to love and amazing place. So you can actually do research this meeting folder of the world and that sort of happened.

Little by little over time. No, I’m not sure there was ever like a, oh, this is a correct strategy. Very rapidly. What I did realize is I don’t, I never followed traditional wealth management advice. You go to these wealth managers or like Goldman or whatever, and they’re like, oh, you should have 50, 60% equities and 30% bonds and blah, blah, blah, like crazy.

None of that ever made any sense to me, I have a complete barbell portfolio where it’s like a 10% of cash because you want optionality of being able to take advantage of things in crises, 10%, crypto, 10% public Sox of the things that have gone public in my portfolio that I still like and old 10% of real estate that’s really consumption.

And then everything else is like early stage Texas tech stuff. A completely barbell works really well. I realized it was much better at doing that. And ma which is essentially the same thing as like running FJ labs. If your labs are in a ways, a family office, and good on that front. And I made many mistakes.

Like I, I lost in a way millions dollars and Billy’s trying to buy a big chunk of the country to preserve the rainforest, which, taught me something about a rule of law. I lost millions dollars in Dominican Republic doing something at a much smaller scale, instead of hundreds of thousands of acres doing it with 165 acres, wanting to build a big community where I would bring founders and spiritual leaders and and artists to just create and be there with no business model, but like everyone from the mayor to the minister of tourism and environment, all wanted bribes and create an environment that was all super tenable.

So lost millions of dollars. Pursuing, if you, these houses, I made many mistakes along the way, but in general, at the end of the day, my true north star of help those around you. Help the world through, in my case, second Vaseline. So like finding solutions, the world’s problems, and like by yourself and living the life you want to lead has been amazing.

By the way, through that process, I did a lot of iteration in 2013. I’d actually 2012. I gave almost all my physical possessions to charity. I went down to 50 items that fit in a carry on my backpack and my tennis bag. And I went cap surfing and France couches for a year that I went like an Airbnb.

I lived in Airbnbs and hotels for three years beyond that all around the world. Like making sure I allocate time to invest in my friends and friendship and my friendships and my family in a way I’d never done that before. 

MPD: And why did you need to do that? Just cause the material items were owning you at some level.

Was that the thinking, did you have all the goods to do that? To have related 

Fabrice Grinda: time allocation? If you have like at a country house in Bedford and I would go and it was amazing, right? Like I, it was huge and we played paintball there and like it organized like parties. We played video games the way they gave me a room, et cetera.

But at the end of the day I went there because I was paying so much for it, which is the wrong reason to use something. The minute I didn’t have an apartment, the minute I didn’t have a house, I was like, okay, dad, I have infinite freedom and flexibility. Where do I want to be? Who is it that I want to be spending time with?

And so being, when you have a default, you go to that default, if you remove the default option, you can be way more thoughtful about what it is you really want to do, who it is, what it is you really want to hang out with. And the fundamental problem I was trying to solve for is. As you get older as your friends.

And I start getting married, having kids jobs, et cetera. I like the quality of the tea. The texture of your friendships, like changes when you’re in college, you’re remaking the world. You’re starting to you’re seeing your friends seven days a week. Even at McKinsey, I would see my friends date many days.

Many hours every week. And all of a sudden it would came at like the biographical update. I, we see you once every six weeks. And at that point is what happened to your husband and your work, et cetera, and your kids since then? And it’s fine, but it’s not the reason that we became friends. We became friends because there was a more fundamental connection and perspective and beliefs of some of the world and extraordinary conversations.

And I wanted to rekindle that in, in my thirties, in a eighties, it seemed to have gone away between the age of 25 and whatever 35. And I’m like, there must be a way to change it. And others were not making the adjustments to their little. Why don’t I adjust my life to make it happen. And now there are many false starts, right?

Like the couch surfing was a total failure because of course it was Dean and cab. The fact that I was at a position in their life and they saw, I’d like to bring skids to school and go to work, et cetera. The Airbnb thing worked really well until her BB was made illegal. It may most of the major cities and like across New York, all the high-end inventory to spirit then they will tell us all became full.

So I was like moving hotels every four days. So that’s actually the reason I ended up buying an apartment in New York. I was very happy living in like billionaires apartments, for a month, at a time in every neighborhood in New York, hosting dinner parties there. But once I had to live at hotels and move a tell, remember five days, I’m like, okay, that’s not viable.

And I couldn’t find high-end re rental inventory. I liked, so I bought a place, but. I guess people don’t put enough iteration and design and thought into their lives. They follow the default, whereas you can throw stuff on the wall and see what sex and see what sticks for you, right? Like people are built differently and what they want to do and how they want to lead their lives.

And they followed the, I guess thing, the default path way too much. Like my life is very non-traditional in general. I do a month in New York than a month intrusive kaikos I’ll do a month in Canada. Because New York and is socially artistically, professionally extraordinary intense.

And if you’re doing, you’re not thinking, and then I come to church and I’m working during the day. I’m in trucks right now and we’re doing this call and I have 12 calls today, but I’ll meditate. I’ll go, kitesurf, I’ll play tennis. And I’ll take the time to read and write and think and be reflective and rebuild my batteries.

And then most people don’t necessarily think through what is right for them in light of their energy level, personality, et cetera. And so that iterative design is alive, made it alive by. 

MPD: I love all that. You mentioned through there that you do a lot of charity, which I think is great. I particularly was interested in the buying a Britain forest or attempts to do taking it that further.

I would love to hear your take on impact, right? Is there a cause that you’re passionate about or some particular topic? Let me put it a different way, because my favorite way to ask this question, if you were king now, president king, what is one thing you would change? 

Fabrice Grinda: So I’m going to give the hyper rational answer to that.

Please, if you look at all the policies you could do in the U S and which ones would actually impact wellbeing for people the most it’s actually, there’s one thing that has much larger impact on personal outcome than everything else. And in the U S social mobility as a client, it used to be the 95% of people made more money than their parents.

Now it’s about 50% since people born since 1982. And the main reason for that is that the top cities are the ones where all the jobs created for all the opportunities are, have become unaffordable. And the reason there aren’t affordable is we’ve passed extraordinarily idiotic, zoning and landscaping laws.

And at that, that mean that you cannot build as easily as you should be able to. And there’s a lot of reasons for that. If your current owner restricting supply means your thing your homes increasing value dramatically. But it’s extremely bad for like social mobility economic diversity.

And so you look at San Francisco, 80% of the city is zoned. Apartments are illegal. You can not have more than two story buildings. And as a result, you have the cities become extremely unaffordable. So if I could change one, one thing is essentially. Remove all air rights, all essentially zoning and construction regulation.

Other than a few, see if you’re not going to be building over whatever central park, but like air rights and city and your city make no sense. Like having these buildings that are less than a hundred year olds old, be like landmark that you can’t build over them makes no sense. You should be able to build up as much as you can.

And we should have unlimited supply. And of course, there’ll be a lag of eight years or 10 years before things get built and prices adjust. But at that actually solves affordable housing. And when you solve affordable housing, you recreate mobility and your lack of people to get the best jobs. And this is what changes the outcome more than anything else.

Now that’s not a something I’m investing in any way, shape or form or. Because there’s crazy nimbyism and political forces against it. And it’s, it has to be in the U S the rules are like literally like neighborhood by neighborhood. And it’s so painful. So I, as king, I would do that. That is not where I keep my claim to.

Now I’ve not put a lot of thought into charity. That first of all, what I do at the charity level, it is way more personal and directed will have a much larger impact on the lives of the people I help, but it’s much more smaller scale. Like in the Dominican Republic, I helps pay for the education of 10,000 kids from K through 12.

It’s amazing for these kids. So it changes their life outcomes, dramatically program. 

MPD: You do that through, or you just set that up. 

Fabrice Grinda: No, it’s the dream project that I was funding. And I, but I helped them beyond that. I helped, I built like a tech center where they could learn programming and to have access to computers and internet and find jobs, et cetera.

I fund something called the university of the people, which is helping non low-income people basically get us degrees, especially in things like computer science. And there are people from like our over a hundred nations and they often end up getting jobs at Google, Facebook, et cetera.

So it’s been mostly right education, helping people be able to increase their out their life outcomes through adhesion often in the communities where I was living, I lived in the Dr for largest spend, like four or five months a year from 2012 to 2019 2018, the men I’ve done a lot of that now, separately I’ve dragged given directly.

Contributions to many of my friends and like dozens of them, right? And we’re talking millions and millions of dollars, it’s life-changing for them, but I don’t larger scale. All of that is dwarfed from a social and economic impact by what I do. And as a tech investor, right? Like my tech investments of hundreds and hundreds of companies, I think ultimately will change the lives of billions of people.

And yeah, they’re for profit, but there’s a fundamental social motivation for them. And I think they will dwarf anything I do on the direct investment and the direct shadow charity frame. That’s why most of my personal capital is actually allocated to investing technology, to solve the world’s problems.

And I think we will, by the way, I’m extremely optimistic on how we’re gonna address climate change, inequality of opportunity, et cetera. 

MPD: It’s been great having you on. Thank you so much for doing this. 

Fabrice Grinda: Thank you for having me

MPD: every time I talked to Fabrice, I feel a little bit smarter, very grateful for him being on the show today and grateful to have him in my orbit, working together and doing deals together. It’s a great guy. If you liked what you heard, please hook us up with a like or a five-star review. This is my basic pandering.

Help us out. You can find me on Twitter at MPD. And to hear more of my conversations with innovators, subscribe on YouTube, Facebook, or any major podcast platform. Just search for innovation with Mark Peter Davis.

왜 그럴까요?

이번 주 저는 노르웨이 핀세에서 다가오는 극지 탐험을 위한 훈련을 하고 있었습니다. 이 훈련에는 눈보라 속에서 130파운드의 썰매를 끌며 하루에 최대 25km를 스키를 타고, 얼어붙은 텐트에서 잠을 자고, 삽 하나만 화장실로 삼아 마른 음식을 먹어야 했습니다. 고통스럽고, 춥고, 힘들었지만 저는 그 과정이 정말 좋았습니다.

저와 같은 많은 기업가들이 모험 여행과 익스트림 스포츠를 좋아하는 이유에 대해 고민해 본 적이 있습니다. 우리가 바랄 수 있는 모든 것을 가지고 있기 때문에 아이러니하게 느껴지기도 합니다. 감사하는 마음과 낙천적인 성격을 타고난 저로서는 두 배로 아이러니한 일입니다. 멋진 가족, 많은 친한 친구, 건강, 목적을 추구할 기회, 탐험의 자유, 행복에 대한 적성 등 인생이 제게 준 모든 것에 감사하지 않는 날은 하루도 없습니다.

그렇다면 왜 우리는 감사할 만한 것들을 빼앗기고 모든 것을 잃을 위험에 처하는 상황에 놓이게 될까요?

2000년에 포뮬러 1 자동차를 운전했던 기억이 생생합니다. 한계까지 밀어붙이다 보니 시간이 느려졌습니다. 더 빨리 가면 통제력을 잃을 것 같았던 그 순간만큼 살아 있다는 느낌을 받은 적은 없었습니다. 헬리 스키, 카이트서핑, 다양한 종류의 모험 여행을 즐기는 기술 창업자이자 투자자로서 평생을 직업적, 개인적으로 위험을 감수하며 살아온 저는 몇 가지 인사이트를 얻었습니다.

1. 흐름 상태에 대한 사랑

흐름 상태는 마법과도 같습니다. 다른 모든 것이 사라지고 주변 환경과 하나가 되어 최고 수준으로 작동하는 순간이 바로 이 순간입니다. 하지만 이는 일시적인 현상이며 인간 조건의 표준이 아닙니다.

곧 있을 Stealing Fire 리뷰에서 자세히 설명하겠지만, 익스트림 스포츠는 집중력과 집중력이 필요하기 때문에 흐름 상태를 활용할 수 있는 놀라운 방법입니다. 죽음의 위험은 원숭이의 마음을 진정시키는 듯합니다. 제 경우에는 실어증을 앓고 있어서인지 처음부터 마음이 다소 조용했습니다. 하지만 저는 여전히 깊은 설원에서 스키를 타며 경치를 감상하고 나무 사이를 유려한 춤사위로 휘감으며 명상에 잠길 때를 좋아합니다. 마찬가지로 저는 카이트서핑이나 카이트포일을 하면서 파도 위를 날아다니며 얼굴에 닿는 태양, 머리에 부는 바람, 주변 바다의 냄새를 느끼고 발 아래 파도의 윤곽을 경험하는 것을 좋아합니다.

지난 주에도 마찬가지였습니다. 눈보라 속에서 썰매를 끌며 내가 올라가는지 내려가는지 앞이 보이지 않을 정도로 지쳐 있었어요. 시야 전체가 100% 하얗게 보였습니다. 저는 그저 호흡에 집중하며 한 발을 미끄러뜨리고 다음 발을 미끄러뜨리는 동작을 하나, 둘, 하나, 둘, 반복해서 리듬을 타기만 했어요. 저는 무아지경에 빠져 자연과 하나가 된 기분이 들었습니다. 저 멀리 피난처가 있는 계곡에 피난처가 있다는 환각이 들기 시작했으니 빈 캔버스가 마음에 들지 않는 모양입니다. 그 순간 저는 사막에서 길을 잃은 여행자가 어떻게 오아시스라는 신기루를 볼 수 있는지 이해했습니다. (분명히 말씀드리지만, 저는 환각제 등 어떤 약물도 복용하지 않았습니다.)

그렇다고 익스트림 스포츠와 모험 여행이 플로우 상태를 달성하는 유일한 방법이라는 것은 아닙니다. 오히려 명상, 환각, 탄트라 섹스를 하거나 패들 또는 테니스를 치는 동안 그 영역에 있을 때 이런 경험을 합니다. 이는 모두 동일한 상태에 도달하기 위해 사용할 수 있는 다양한 방식입니다.

서양에서는 사람들이 흐름 상태에 도달하기 위해 가장 일반적으로 사용하는 방법은 기술을 숙달하는 것입니다. 이러한 마술쇼를 목격하는 것은 언제나 경이로운 일입니다. 우리는 항상 그것을 목격할 때 알 수 있습니다. 우리가 페더러, 메시, 조던의 기량에 경외감을 느끼고 그에 상응하는 보상을 하는 이유도 바로 여기에 있습니다. 저는 스티브 잡스의 무대를 보고, 데렌 브라운의 마술쇼를 관람하고, 브로드웨이에서 해밀턴의 공연을 듣는 등 다양한 상황에서 이를 경험했지만, 기술을 습득한 ‘평범한’ 사람들의 순간도 수없이 많이 보았습니다.

스킬을 플로우 상태에 진입하는 수단으로 사용하기 위한 한 가지 요건은 숙련도입니다. 스키, 테니스, 카이트 서핑을 배우는 동안 저는 한 번도 플로우 상태를 유지하지 못했습니다. 저는 기술과 반복에 집중했습니다. 프로세스가 백그라운드에서 사라질 수 있을 정도로 무언가를 마스터해야만 그 영역에 집중할 수 있습니다. 충분한 보상을 받을 수 있지만 시간을 투자해야 합니다.

그렇기 때문에 익스트림 스포츠와 모험 여행을 추천합니다. 바로 가기입니다. 숙달할 필요는 없습니다. 추위와 크로스컨트리 스키에서 살아남는 데 있어 제가 가진 기술이 얼마나 적은지 증명해 보겠습니다. 그러나 관련된 위험은 당신의 주의를 집중시키고 흐름 상태를 생성하는 기계 역할을 합니다.

2. 인간의 조건에 뿌리내린 의미 감각

인간은 위험과 스릴을 느끼고 싶어 하는 본능적인 욕구가 있는 것 같습니다. 호모 사피엔스가 존재한 대부분의 기간 동안 다른 인간, 야생동물, 자연으로부터의 죽음에 직면했기 때문에 아마도 우리의 정신에 내재되어 있었을 것입니다.

그래서 군대에 있는 많은 친구들이 현역에서 제대하고 집에 돌아왔을 때 적응에 어려움을 겪는 경우가 많습니다. 현대인의 일상적인 삶은 매일 직면하는 생사의 기로에 놓인 상황에 비하면 지루해 보일 수 있습니다. 전통적인 우정은 형제와의 유대감에 비하면 얄팍하기 짝이 없습니다.

우리는 모든 것이 안전하고 위생적이며 피상적인 현대 생활의 본질에 대해 어딘가 공허하고 만족스럽지 않다고 느낍니다. 어쩌면 우리 모두에게 필요한 것은 우리가 무엇을 위해 살고 있는지 스스로에게 상기시키기 위한 약간의 위험과 모험일지도 모릅니다.

익스트림 스포츠와 모험 여행은 일종의 합성 위험입니다. 우리는 위험에 직면하지만 측정되고 통제된 환경에 있습니다. 우리는 실제 전쟁의 고통과 박탈감을 경험하고 싶지는 않지만, 우리의 정신은 스릴과 위험의 가능성을 느껴야 합니다.

‘위험해 보이는’ 많은 것들이 언뜻 보기보다 덜 위험하다는 점에 주목할 필요가 있습니다. 23살에 맥킨지를 떠났다고 부모님께 말씀드렸을 때 부모님은 깜짝 놀라셨어요. 저는 막 어소시에이트로 승진한 상태였습니다. 저는 1년에 거의 20만 달러를 벌고 있었습니다. 지금까지 저는 어떤 시도도 실패한 적이 없었습니다. 직업의 안전과 명성을 떠나는 것 외에도 실패하면 제가 무너질까 봐 걱정했습니다.

어떤 면에서는 그들이 옳았습니다. 첫 스타트업을 시작하면서 저는 제로에서 영웅이 되었습니다. 2년 만에 100명 이상의 직원과 함께 월 총 상품 판매액이 1,000만 달러가 넘는 규모로 성장시켰습니다. 저는 모든 잡지의 표지를 장식했고 프랑스 인터넷 혁명의 영웅이었습니다. 그러다 모든 것이 무너졌습니다. 인터넷 거품이 꺼지면서 저는 영웅에서 제로가 되어 모든 것을 잃었습니다. 부모님의 최악의 두려움이 현실이 된 거죠.

하지만 제가 정말 잃어버린 것은 무엇이었을까요? 제 능력에 대한 자신감이 있었어요. 한동안 소파에서 잠을 자야 해도 굶을 걱정은 없었습니다. 최악의 경우 맥킨지로 돌아가거나 정규직으로 돌아갈 수도 있습니다. 저는 제 기술이 가치 있고 소중하다는 것을 알고 있었습니다. 그 대가로 저는 목적이 있는 삶을 살았습니다. 저는 명확한 집중력과 사명감을 가지고 있었습니다. 그래서 결국 저는 인터넷 기업가로 남기로 결정했습니다. 어차피 돈을 벌기 위해 시작한 일이 아니었거든요. 저는 무에서 유를 창조하고 기술을 활용해 세상을 더 나은 곳으로 만드는 데 기여하고 싶었습니다. 거품이 꺼졌기 때문에 어떤 것을 만들든 그다지 크지 않을 거라고 생각했지만 신경 쓰이지 않았습니다. 결국 저는 그 평가가 틀렸다는 것을 알게 되었고, 제 꿈을 뛰어넘는 성공을 거두었습니다.

모험 여행에 수반되는 위험도 마찬가지입니다. 사망 위험은 극히 적습니다. 사람들이 정말 두려워하는 것은 그들이 겪게 될 불편함이라고 생각합니다. 불편함을 감수해야 하는 것은 사실이지만, 그 대가로 현대 생활에서 비교할 수 없는 근성과 끈기를 통해 성취감을 얻을 수 있습니다.

3. 감사 실천

사람들은 자신이 가진 것을 잃을 위험에 처했을 때 가장 소중하게 여깁니다. 저는 원래 감사하는 마음을 가지고 있지만, 일주일 동안의 캠핑을 마치고 돌아올 때마다 우리가 당연하게 여기는 모든 사소한 것들에 대해 감사하는 마음을 갖게 됩니다. 저는 현대 생활의 마법에 경외감을 느낍니다. 버튼 하나만 누르면 전등이 켜지고, 수도꼭지에서 뜨거운 물이 나오는 것은 물론 실내 배관의 편리함도 놀랍습니다. 또한 모든 맛과 풍미의 조합이 가능해 보이는 현대 사회에서 맛볼 수 있는 요리의 즐거움에 무한히 감사하게 됩니다.

그리고 현대의 커뮤니케이션과 여행의 마법에 대해서는 더 말할 것도 없습니다. 우리는 기본적으로 무료 무선 비디오 통신 시스템으로도 사용할 수 있는 장치를 통해 인류 지식의 총합을 주머니 속에 넣고 다닐 수 있습니다. 전 세계의 수많은 사람들과 소통할 수 있습니다. 게다가 24시간 이내에 지구 반대편에 있는 가족을 만나러 갈 수 있는 수단이 있습니다. 이는 과거에는 불가능했을 뿐만 아니라 본질적으로 상상할 수 없었던 업적입니다. 실제 마술처럼 느껴질 정도로 특별합니다!

4. 우연에 대한 개방성

극지 탐험 훈련 중 잭 크라인들러 박사가 만든 텐트에서 며칠 밤을 함께 지내기도 했습니다. 오랜 시간을 함께 보내고 역경에 맞서며 생존을 위해 서로에게 진정으로 의지했던 마법 같은 조합 덕분에 우리는 금세 친구가 되었습니다. 저는 그의 지성, 개인적 사명감, 직설성, 거침없는 유머 감각, 모험에 대한 열망을 사랑하게 되었습니다.

하지만 진정한 마법은 이 모든 것이 전혀 계획에 없던 일이었다는 점입니다. 만약 그가 저에게 흥미롭다며 함께 캠핑을 가서 서로를 알아가자고 연락했다면 저는 거절했을 것입니다. 저는 바쁜 삶을 살고 있습니다. 하지만 자신에게 다가오는 기회에 ‘예스’라고 말할 때 일어나는 우연이기에 우리는 앞으로도 오랫동안 친구가 될 것이라고 확신합니다.

5. 새로운 학습

새로운 것을 배운다는 것은 아름다운 일입니다. 새롭고 낯선 환경에 자신을 투입하는 것은 새로운 기술을 배우고, 새로운 신경 연결을 만들고, 젊음을 유지할 수 있는 놀라운 방법입니다.

저는 따뜻한 날씨의 캠핑은 많이 해봤지만, 옐로스톤에서 8월의 기이한 눈보라를 만나 준비가 전혀 되지 않은 채 부적절한 장비를 착용한 밤을 제외하고는 추운 날씨의 캠핑을 해본 적이 없습니다. 마찬가지로 저는 다운힐 스키를 잘 타지만 크로스컨트리 스키를 타본 적이 없습니다.

남극의 바람에 날아가지 않도록 텐트를 설치하는 방법, 130파운드의 펄크를 끌며 크로스컨트리 스키를 타는 방법, 눈을 녹여 텐트 안에서 물을 마시고 요리를 하는 방법, 이 모든 과정에서 체온을 유지하는 방법 등 지난 일주일 동안 정말 많은 것을 배워야 했죠.

또한 핀세가 스노우 카약의 수도라는 사실을 알게 되어 스노우 카약을 배우기 위해 체류 기간을 연장하기로 결정했습니다. 그 결과 남극 여행을 연장할까 고민 중입니다. 내년 1월에 남극까지 마지막 스키를 타기로 되어 있습니다. 이제 저도 남극에서 헤라클레스 역까지 연을 타고 돌아가야겠다는 생각이 듭니다.

6. 생각의 명확성

일상에서 벗어나 사색하고 성찰하는 시간을 갖는 것은 사려 깊고 성찰적인 사람이 되는 놀라운 방법입니다. 우리는 종종 결정을 내려야 할 때 우리를 짓누르는 생각에 사로잡히곤 합니다. 하지만 현대인의 바쁜 일상과 순간순간의 감정으로 인해 파충류의 뇌를 뛰어넘어 명확하고 냉정한 사고를 활성화하기는 어렵습니다.

모험 여행은 일상적인 환경을 벗어나게 하고, 위험해 보이는 상황은 최면 상태에 빠져들게 하여 갑자기 해결책이 떠오르는 것처럼 보이게 합니다. 새로운 시각으로 문제를 바라보고 직면한 문제에 대한 합리적인 해결책을 찾아 행동 계획과 방향을 제시할 수 있습니다.

7. 접지 유지

성공을 달성한다는 것은 때때로 필요와 욕구 사이의 차이를 놓치는 것을 의미할 수 있습니다. 북극 훈련과 같은 경험을 통해 우리는 건강, 물, 식량, 기본적인 쉼터, 동료애 등 우리에게 정말 필요한 것은 거의 없다는 사실을 다시금 깨닫게 됩니다.

결론

이것이 바로 인생입니다. 가족 및 친구들과 함께 큐레이팅하거나 빠져들었던 경험, 그리고 더 넓은 커뮤니티와 함께 다시 이야기하며 기억을 되살린 경험은 우리의 마음과 정신을 생생하게 유지합니다.

가장 큰 위험은 복용하지 않는 것입니다. 매슬로우의 욕구 위계설에 따른 기본을 갖추고 있다면 모험, 기회, 위험해 보이는 노력에 대해 ‘예스’라고 말하세요. 생각보다 덜 위험하며, 더 생생하게 느끼고, 마법의 흐름 상태에 들어가며, 깊은 목적 의식을 얻고, 감사를 배우고, 마음을 맑게 하면서 새로운 마법의 만남과 배움을 얻게 될 것입니다.

새내기 부모로서 저는 이미 아들에게 긍정적인 위험 감수를 장려하고 있습니다. 그는 모든 모험을 즐기는 것을 좋아합니다. 아이를 슬링에 태우고 자전거를 타고, 스키를 타고, 미친 듯이 뛰어다니는 동안 세상이 지나가면서 기쁨에 겨워 비명을 지르기도 합니다. 지금 이 순간에도 저는 첫 걸음을 내딛으려는 아이의 손을 잡고 있습니다.

나가서 살아보세요!

위대한 미지의 세계

1년 전, 저는 ‘ 모든 것의 거품에 오신 것을 환영합니다‘에서 느슨한 통화 정책과 재정 정책의 전례 없는 조합이 모든 자산 클래스의 거품을 부추기고 있다고 주장한 바 있습니다. 주식, 암호화폐, 부동산, 토지, 원자재, 채권에 거품이 끼고 스팩에 투기적 거품이 가득 차는 것을 목격했습니다. 리테일 주도의 숏 스퀴즈와 비정상적인 변동성과 같은 비정상적인 행동은 모두 우리가 시장의 정점에 있거나 그 근처에 있음을 시사합니다.

모든 투자액이 엄청나게 빠르게 상승하고 있었기 때문에 FJ Labs는 당연히 거품의 큰 수혜자였습니다. 우리는 우리가 투자를 잘 선택한다고 생각하지만 거품이 많은 환경의 혜택을 받고 있다는 사실을 잘 알고 있었습니다. 거품 속에서 우리는 모두 천재처럼 보입니다. 저희는 거시적인 우려를 염두에 두고 일부 고공행진 중인 종목의 세컨더리 매도를 진행했습니다. 이는 우리가 그들을 믿지 않았기 때문이 아니라, 오히려 우리가 유동성을 확보할 수 있는 유일한 포지션이기 때문입니다. 또한 일반적으로 포지션의 50%만 매도합니다.

그 이후 시장은 특히 기술주와 암호화폐를 중심으로 조정을 받았습니다. 나스닥 주식의 40%는 모든 기술 섹터에서 최고점에서 최저점까지 50% 이상 하락했습니다.

퍼블릭 테크 기업의 경우 멀티플이 크게 압축되었습니다. SaaS 배수는 이제 장기 중앙값 아래로 돌아갔습니다.

대부분의 암호화폐 자산도 50% 이상 하락했습니다.

이제 우리가 무엇을 해야 할지에 대한 질문이 생깁니다. 여기서 우리가 앞으로 나아갈 방향이 매우 불확실하다는 문제가 있습니다. 과거에는 더 확실하고 명료한 생각을 할 수 있었습니다. 1990년대 후반에 저는 우리가 기술 거품에 빠져 있으며, 거품이 터지겠지만 앞으로의 성장을 위한 토대가 될 것이라고 설명하는 기사를 발표했습니다. 2000년대 중반, 저는 바로 이 블로그에서 부동산 가격 상승을 감안할 때 사람들이 집을 사기보다는 임대해야 한다고 주장했습니다. 위에서 설명한 것처럼 1년 전 저는 모든 자산 클래스가 과대평가되고 있다고 제안했습니다. 이제 저는 왜 상황이 회복될 수 있는지, 왜 옆으로 갈 것인지, 왜 더 많은 하락이 있을 수 있는지에 대해 합리적인 주장을 할 수 있습니다.

불확실한 거시 및 지정학적 환경

A. 낙관적인 경우

이 암울하고 우울한 시기에 낙관적인 경우로 시작하고 싶었던 이유는 아무도 그것을 믿지 않기 때문입니다. 소비자 물가지수는 2022년 2월까지 12개월 동안 7.9% 상승하여 40년 만에 가장 큰 12개월 상승률을 기록했습니다. 연준은 인플레이션 폭주를 막기 위해 올해 금리를 5차례에 걸쳐 누적 1.5% 이상 인상할 것으로 예상됩니다. 역사적으로 연준의 급격한 금리 인상은 대부분 경기 침체로 이어졌습니다.

특히 기술주나 암호화폐와 같은 위험 자산이 하락한 이유는 미국 금리 인상이 예상되기 때문입니다. 금리 인상이 위험 자산에 더 큰 영향을 미치는 이유는 위험 자산의 가치가 먼 미래의 현금 흐름에 의해 결정되기 때문입니다. 기업의 가치는 미래 현금흐름을 할인한 순 현재 가치입니다.

10년 후 10억 달러의 현금 흐름이 발생할 것으로 예상되는 기술 스타트업이 있다고 상상해 보세요. 할인율이 0%인 경우, 미래 현금 흐름은 회사의 가치를 10억 달러 증가시킵니다. 그러나 할인율이 10%인 경우, 10년 후 동일한 10억 달러의 현금 흐름이 발생하더라도 회사의 현재 가치는 3억 8,500만 달러만 증가합니다. 특히 대부분의 현금 흐름이 비교적 먼 미래에 발생하는 기업의 경우, 매우 낮은 금리에서 시작하면 금리가 크게 변해도 밸류에이션에 큰 영향을 미치지 않습니다.

현재 인플레이션 상승의 상당 부분은 상품 수요의 급격한 증가로 인한 공급망 경색으로 인해 발생하고 있습니다. 이는 소비자들이 더 이상 여행, 식당, 영화 관람 등을 할 수 없게 되면서 서비스에 대한 수요가 감소했기 때문입니다.

가처분 소득이 늘어남에 따라 소비자들은 온라인 쇼핑을 선택했습니다. 알고 보니 저희 인프라는 이렇게 빠르게 확장할 수 있는 구조가 아니었습니다. 전 세계의 컨테이너 선박 수, 사용 가능한 컨테이너 수, 항구의 처리량, 트럭과 트럭 운전사의 가용성, 섀시(컨테이너를 운반하는 트레일러)의 가용성 등 모든 것이 압도적으로 많아져 시스템이 막혔습니다. 우리는 이러한 필수 공급망 요소나 이러한 자산의 공급을 필요한 곳으로 전환할 수 있을 만큼 민첩한 탄력적인 시스템을 충분히 갖추지 못했습니다.

게다가 이커머스 물류 네트워크는 지리적, 물리적 공간에서 기존 소매업과 근본적으로 다릅니다. 모든 것을 단일 허브의 유통 센터에 배치하는 대신 사용자와 가장 가까운 곳에 인벤토리를 엣지 캐싱하기 때문에 더 복잡합니다. 기업들은 미국 전역에 창고를 배치해야 하므로 물류 관리가 기하급수적으로 복잡해집니다. 그 결과 더 많은 사람들이 온라인으로 물건을 구매할수록 이러한 시스템에 과부하가 걸렸습니다.

우크라이나의 전쟁으로 인해 에너지 가격이 상승하고 공급망이 더욱 혼란스러워지면서 이러한 상황이 더욱 악화되고 있습니다.

이제 낙관적인 결과가 어떻게 나타날 수 있는지 설명하겠습니다. 서비스에서 상품으로의 구매 전환은 엄격한 코로나19 제한 조치로 인해 발생했습니다.

이제 모든 사람이 옴니크론으로 인해 코로나19에 걸렸거나 세 번이나 백신을 맞았기 때문에 코로나19가 마침내 유행병이 되었다고 상상해 보세요. 코로나19는 오랫동안 우리와 함께할 수 있지만, 우리는 코로나19와 함께 살아가는 법을 배우고 덴마크와 영국의 선례를 따라 각 주에서는 모든 제한 조치를 종료했습니다. 소비자는 이전의 소비 패턴으로 돌아갑니다. 이렇게 하면 공급망이 막히지 않고 물류 비용이 크게 감소하여 경제에 디플레이션 효과를 가져올 수 있습니다.

또한, 코로나19 지원금 지급이 종료되면 경제에 유입되던 과잉 수요도 일부 해소될 것입니다. 인플레이션 기대가 고착화되지 않고 연간 7% 임금 인상 요구가 일반화되지 않을 정도로 빠르게 인플레이션이 발생한다면 인플레이션 상승은 일시적인 것으로 판명되어 연준은 시장의 예상보다 느리게 금리를 인상할 수 있을 것입니다.

또한 우크라이나 전쟁이 정서에 부정적인 영향을 미치면서 불확실성이 최고조에 달하고 있습니다. 앞으로 몇 주 또는 몇 달 안에 해결이 된다면 경제에 드리워진 지정학적 리스크가 상당 부분 제거될 것입니다. 또한 푸틴이 우크라이나에서 겪고 있는 어려움과 경제 제재의 심각성으로 인해 시진핑 주석이 대만에 대한 침략 또는 합병 가능성에 대해 다시 생각하게 되었기를 희망합니다.

인플레이션과 지정학적 긴장이 완화된다면 경제는 계속해서 호조를 보이고 시장이 회복될 수 있는 좋은 위치에 있을 것입니다. 기업들은 현금 포지션과 부채 측면에서 경기 침체가 진행 중이던 다른 시기에 비해 양호한 재무 상태를 유지하고 있습니다. 미국의 실업률은 3.8%로 완전 고용 상태입니다. 의회가 추가 구호 패키지를 고려하지 않고 있고, 추가 인프라 및 사회 패키지는 최근의 구호 패키지보다 훨씬 작을 것이기 때문에 재정 적자가 급격히 감소하고 있습니다.

장기적으로 볼 때 기술은 인플레이션에 대처하는 데도 도움이 될 것입니다. 기술은 디플레이션을 방지하고 더 낮은 비용으로 더 나은 사용자 경험을 제공합니다. 코로나19는 의료, 교육, B2B, 공공 서비스 등 이전에는 기술 혁명의 영향을 거의 받지 않았던 경제 부문에서 빠른 기술 도입을 이끌었습니다. ‘대침체’를 처음 설명한 타일러 코웬과 같은 경제학자들은 이제 기술 중심의 성장이 다시 가속화될 것이라고 예측하고 있습니다.

작년 4분기에 저는 낙관적인 시나리오가 실현될 확률을 50%로 봤을 것입니다. 지금은 약 33% 정도이지만 안타깝게도 날이 갈수록 감소하고 있습니다.

B. 정체 사례

낙관적인 경우에는 인플레이션이 일시적으로 발생하고 연준이 예상보다 낮은 수준으로 금리를 인상할 수 있는 현상 유지로 돌아갈 수 있어야 합니다. 문제는 인플레이션이 추세 이상으로 오래 유지될수록(예: 2~2.5%) 인플레이션 기대가 고착화될 가능성이 높아진다는 점입니다. 계절 조정된 2월 민간 부문 평균 시간당 수입은 전년 동월 대비 5.1% 증가했습니다. 이는 여전히 인플레이션보다 낮은 수준이지만, 인플레이션에 대응하기 위해 근로자들이 매년 자동으로 7%의 임금 인상을 받기 시작하면 인플레이션이 7%로 고착화될 것입니다.

국가는 일반적으로 위험을 회피하고 행동이 느립니다. 정당한 이유보다 느리게 제한을 완화할 수 있습니다. 이렇게 하면 상품에 대한 수요가 인위적으로 더 오래 부풀려져 공급망이 막히고 가격이 높게 유지될 수 있습니다. 이는 결과적으로 더 높은 인플레이션 기대치를 고착화할 확률을 높입니다.

또한 많은 사람들이 인플레이션이 높아도 괜찮다는 인식이 확산되고 있습니다. 전 세계 부채는 GDP 대비 250% 이상으로 사상 최고치를 기록하고 있으며, 정부, 기업, 가계는 특히 금리 상승에 취약한 상황입니다.

영구적으로 높은 인플레이션은 구매력 감소, 투자 감소, 자본의 잘못된 배분, 저축 가치의 파괴 등 많은 비용을 초래할 수 있습니다. 그러나 단기적으로 마이너스 실질 금리는 부채의 가치도 약화시킬 수 있습니다.

아래 차트에서 제1차 세계대전, 제2차 세계대전, 베트남 전쟁을 보면 알 수 있듯이 전쟁 중에는 국가들이 상당히 오랜 기간 동안 높은 인플레이션율을 용인해 왔습니다.

러시아의 우크라이나 침공 초기이지만, 현재 러시아군이 처한 상황은 분쟁이 장기화되어 정서에 영향을 미치는 불확실성의 구름을 만들 수 있습니다.

정체 시나리오가 어떻게 진행되는지 쉽게 알 수 있습니다. 금리는 상승하지만 인플레이션 기대심리 상승에 대응하기에는 충분하지 않습니다. 정치인과 연준은 추세 이상의 인플레이션을 받아들이기로 결정합니다. 지정학적 불확실성과 결합하면 실질 성장률이 낮아질 수 있습니다. 이런 점에서 우리는 수십 년 동안 많은 라틴 아메리카 국가들처럼 보일 수 있습니다. 명목상의 성장과 가치를 추적하는 대신 실질적인 가치를 추적해야 합니다. 명목상으로는 시장이 크게 하락하지 않을 수 있지만, 시간이 지남에 따라 실질 가치가 하락할 가능성이 매우 높습니다.

이 시나리오가 현재로서는 가장 가능성이 높은 시나리오일 수 있습니다.

C. 비관적인 경우

재앙적인 결과를 초래할 수 있는 시나리오가 날이 갈수록 늘어나는 상황에서 최악의 상황은 아직 오지 않았을 가능성이 높습니다. 일부 긴축이 진행되고 있지만, 연준과 정부는 과거 기준으로 볼 때 여전히 느슨한 통화 및 재정 정책을 운영하고 있습니다. 1.5%의 금리 인상으로는 인플레이션을 억제하기에 충분하지 않을 수 있습니다. 1981년 볼커는 미국의 금리를 20% 이상으로 올렸습니다.

볼커 2.0 시나리오가 아니더라도 시장과 경제에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 2007년에 마지막으로 보았던 수준인 5%의 금리라도 경제가 크게 둔화되고 특히 위험 자산의 밸류에이션이 낮아질 수 있습니다. 공개 시장이 조정을 받았지만 밸류에이션은 여전히 역사적 평균을 훨씬 상회하고 있습니다.

시간 경과에 따른 S&P PE 비율

특히 에너지 비용 상승과 러시아 탈퇴의 여파로 수익이 타격을 입을 가능성이 높기 때문에 밸류에이션이 지금보다 절반으로 떨어지는 것은 상상할 수 없는 일입니다.

더 나쁜 시나리오는 글로벌 금융 위기와 일반적인 ‘리스크 오프’ 사고방식으로 이어질 수 있는 다른 많은 시나리오가 있습니다. 정치인, 대중, 언론은 마치 사우론의 눈처럼 보입니다. 한 번에 한 가지 문제에만 집중할 수 있습니다. 한동안은 트럼프가, 그다음에는 코로나19가, 그리고 지금은 러시아의 우크라이나 침공이 문제였습니다. 저는 코로나19 이후에는 많은 국가에서 정부 부채의 걷잡을 수 없는 증가에 대한 관심이 코로나 사태로 인해 집중되지 않을지 궁금했습니다.

이탈리아, 그리스, 스페인, 포르투갈은 모두 지난 몇 년 동안 공공 부채가 크게 증가했습니다.

이탈리아의 GDP 대비 부채 비율은 지난 15년 동안 100%에서 150% 이상으로 증가했습니다.

이탈리아 부채에 대한 신뢰 위기는 전체 유로 프로젝트의 붕괴를 위협할 수 있습니다. 그리스 부채 위기는 대규모 글로벌 금융 위기를 촉발했습니다. 이탈리아 경제는 10배나 더 큰 규모이며 위기는 그만큼 더 커질 것입니다. 이러한 시나리오에서는 금융 시스템 전체가 마비될 수 있습니다. 많은 은행이 채무 불이행 주체의 부채에 노출될 수 있습니다. 은행들은 2007~2009년 대불황 때처럼 거래상대방 위험이 내재된 거래를 경계할 것입니다.

이러한 위기는 신흥국의 디폴트 또는 러시아에 대한 과도한 노출 등 다양한 이유로 인한 대형 은행의 디폴트로 인해 발생할 수도 있습니다. 특히 Credit Suisse와 UBS는 취약하다고 느낍니다. 아르케고스 , 그린실 , 럭킨 커피 등 최근 부실 대출과 관련된 모든 국제적 사태의 진원지가 바로 이 기업들입니다. 외화 표시 대출은 그 자체로 스위스 GDP의 약 400%에 달합니다. 공식적으로 스위스 은행 시스템 자산은 GDP의 4.7배에 달하지만, 이는 대차대조표 외 자산을 제외한 수치입니다. 이를 포함하면 약 9.5배 10배의 비율이 더 정확하다는 것을 알 수 있습니다.

스위스는 오랫동안 번영하고 안정적인 경제와 동질적인 인구로 인해 안전한 피난처로 여겨져 왔습니다. 다음 위기에는 스위스 은행이 너무 커서 구제금융을 받기에는 너무 큰 은행이 되어 스위스 경제 전체가 무너질 수도 있다고 생각합니다.

이는 전례가 없는 일이 아닙니다. 글로벌 금융위기 이전 수년 동안 아이슬란드는 경제 성공 사례로 널리 인식되어 IMF와 엘리트 평론가들로부터 찬사를 받았습니다. 2008년까지 7년 동안 아이슬란드의 3대 은행인 카우프팅, 글리트너, 랜드방키가 엄청난 대출을 시작했고, 그 결과 총 자산이 아이슬란드 GDP의 1배 미만에서 11배 이상으로 증가했다는 사실을 알아차린 사람은 거의 없었을 것입니다. 아이슬란드 은행들은 대출 장부의 규모 외에도, 종종 자국 통화인 크로나 이외의 통화로 표시된 매우 의심스러운 대출자(예: 유로화 대출이 최대 500억 유로인 반면 유로화 예금은 최대 20억 유로에 불과)에 대한 부실한 인수로 인해 위험을 가중시켰습니다. 2008년 초 유동성이 고갈되고 사람들이 아이슬란드 3대 은행의 지급 능력에 의문을 품기 시작했을 때, 아이슬란드 총 GDP 대비 은행 규모가 너무 커서 아이슬란드 중앙은행이 최후의 수단인 대출 기관으로서 효과적으로 역할을 할 수 없었습니다. 그 결과 아이슬란드는 총체적인 은행 시스템 붕괴와 국가 부도, 경제 불황을 겪게 되었고, 결국 IMF로부터 대규모 구제금융을 받아야 했습니다. 크로나화는 유로화 대비 약 35% 폭락했고, 아이슬란드 주식시장의 시가총액은 90% 이상 하락했습니다.

다른 위험 요소도 무시할 수 없습니다. 전후 미국에서 유가가 실질 기준으로 배럴당 100달러 이상으로 급등한 모든 사례에서 경기 침체가 뒤따랐습니다. 이러한 패턴은 1973년, 1979년, 1990년, 2007년에 발생했습니다.

지정학적 긴장도 고조될 수 있습니다. 러시아가 우크라이나에 전술 핵무기를 사용한다는 것은 더 이상 상상할 수 없는 일이 아닙니다. 분쟁은 다른 국가를 쉽게 집어삼킬 수 있습니다. 예를 들어 러시아가 나토 동맹국의 인프라에 사이버 공격을 가할 경우 우리의 레드라인이 어디인지, 어떤 일이 벌어질지 명확하지 않습니다. 또한 우리가 우크라이나에 정신이 팔려 있는 동안 시진핑이 대만을 위해 움직여 글로벌 안정을 더욱 위협할 가능성도 있습니다.

그리 멀지 않은 과거에는 이러한 모든 시나리오의 가능성을 낮게 봤지만, 지금은 그 가능성이 점점 더 커지고 있으며 날이 갈수록 현실화되고 있습니다.

거시적 결론

현재 낙관적인 경우의 비중을 33%(그리고 하락세)로 보고 있기 때문에 상승 리스크보다 하락 리스크가 더 큽니다. 두려움과 탐욕의 토글에 관해서는 두려움을 더 두려워해야 할 때입니다. 하지만 약세장에서도 행운은 만들어집니다. 버핏의 말처럼 남이 욕심낼 때 우리는 두려움을 느끼고, 남이 두려워할 때 우리는 욕심을 내야 합니다.

투자자이든 창업자이든 약세장에서 공격적인 포지션을 취하려면 약세장이 현실화되기 전에 선제적으로 대응해야 합니다. 투자자와 창업자 모두에게 교훈은 간단합니다. 지금 바로 전쟁 상자를 모금하세요. 창업자에게 이는 어려운 시기에 생존하고 경쟁사를 압박할 수 있는 충분한 현금을 모으는 것을 의미합니다. 투자자에게 이는 매력적인 자산을 한 푼 또는 한 푼에 살 수 있는 기회를 기대하며 유동성을 늘린다는 의미입니다.

개인은 가능한 한 현재의 낮은 금리로 장기 고정 모기지를 이용할 수 있도록 노력해야 합니다. 또한 주택을 담보로 30년 고정금리로 빌릴 수 있는 비구상 대출의 한도를 최대로 늘리는 것도 추천합니다. 인플레이션이 부채 부담을 줄여줄 것입니다. 예를 들어 저는 최근에 뉴욕 아파트의 모기지 대출을 재협상했습니다.

높은 인플레이션에도 불구하고 저는 상당한 양의 현금을 보유하고 있습니다. 가치가 하락하는 동안 큰 조정이 있을 경우 자산을 저렴하게 구매할 수 있는 옵션이 제공됩니다. 이것이 바로 지난 12개월 동안 공격적인 세컨더리 전략을 추구한 이유입니다. 저는 현금을 탈중앙화 금융에 보관하고 인플레이션 수익률보다 낮은 리스크를 창출하기 위한 수단으로 보험에 가입합니다. 제가 직접 사용하는 솔루션을 훨씬 더 광범위한 그룹과 공유할 수 있는 방법을 연구하고 있습니다.

창업자는 단위 경제성과 소진을 주시하면서 지금 모금해야 합니다. 프라이빗 마켓 배수는 아직 공개 시장 수준으로 압축되지 않았습니다. 잠재적인 멀티플 압축을 고려하면, 1년 동안 성장했음에도 불구하고 1년 후에도 현재와 동일한 가치를 평가받을 수 있습니다.

매크로에 우선하는 역사

낙관적인 말씀을 드리고 싶습니다. 역사의 흐름은 거시 경제 사이클보다 우선합니다. 다만 다른 시간 척도로 운영될 뿐입니다. 지난 200년은 인간의 독창성이 주도한 경제 성장의 역사였습니다. 오랜 시간 동안 경기 침체와 전쟁은 거의 기록되지 않습니다. 대공황도 살면서 겪은 불쾌한 경험이지만 진보의 역사에서 한순간에 지나간 것에 불과합니다.

지난 40년 동안 우리는 1981~1982년 경기 침체, 1987년 10월 블랙먼데이, 1990~1991년 경기 침체, 닷컴 버블 붕괴와 9/11, 2001년 경기 침체, 2007~2009년 대침체, 2020년 초의 코로나19 경기 침체 등 수많은 위기와 붕괴를 경험했습니다. 이 모든 과정에서 기술에 크게 투자했다면 잘한 것입니다.

현재 제 자산 배분은 다음과 같습니다: 초기 단계의 비유동성 스타트업 60%, 퍼블릭 테크 스타트업 10%(아직 재투자를 위해 매각하지 않은 IPO한 포트폴리오의 회사들), 암호화폐 10%, 부동산 10%, 현금 10%입니다.

우리는 아직 기술 혁명의 시작 단계에 있으며 소프트웨어는 계속해서 세상을 먹어 치우고 있습니다. 저는 기술 주도의 성장이 다시 가속화될 것으로 낙관합니다. 우리는 기후 변화, 기회의 불평등, 사회적 불공정, 신체적-정신적 건강 위기 등 우리 시대의 과제를 해결하기 위해 기술을 활용할 것입니다.

이처럼 저는 FJ Labs와 함께 전 세계의 문제를 해결하는 초기 단계의 기술 스타트업에 공격적으로 투자할 것입니다. 향후 몇 년 동안의 매크로는 형편없을 수 있지만 궁극적으로는 크게 상관없습니다. 저는 더 나은 내일의 세상, 기회의 평등과 풍요로움이 있는 사회적으로 의식 있는 세상을 만들기 위해 우리가 만들어갈 놀라운 회사에 더 관심이 있습니다.

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