My conversation with Mark Peter Davis of Interplay

I had a fun conversation with Mark Peter Davis of Interplay about my love of marketplaces and all things FJ Labs. The discussion was peppered with lots of entrepreneurial advice and thoughts on impact.

Their Episode Description:

This week I chatted with Fabrice Grinda, Founding Partner at FJ Labs. FJ Labs is a VC that specializes in marketplaces and invests in every geography in every category at any stage. As Fabrice puts it they do angel investing at venture scale, meaning they don’t lead rounds but do a massive number of investments every year. Last year they made almost 200 investments.

Fabrice is super interesting beyond being a VC. He’s been a serial entrepreneur for a couple of decades at this point and has interesting views on wealth and impact.

He started what was essentially the ebay for Europe and then OLX, the Craigslist for the rest of the world.

During our chat he shares some incredibly useful tips for entrepreneurs – especially for those who are interested in marketplaces. We talk all about his approach to venture capital, how FJ Labs operates and makes decisions and much more. Enjoy.

Show Links:

Transcript (this is an automated transcript):

MPD: Fabric, thanks for being here. 

Fabrice Grinda: Thank you for having me. 

MPD: I’ve been very excited to have you on I think you’ve got a lot of wisdom and you do something that most people don’t do and that you practice radical candor. It feels like in everything, every time I’ve ever talked to.

So I think we’re going to get into some really interesting topics today. And I think I have a feeling you’re going to share more than people normally comfortable with, which I think is very powerful. You’re going to help a lot of people. Let’s start though. Let’s level set this can you give an overview of FJ labs?

I think people need to know what you’re doing for your day job before we extend beyond. Sure. 

Fabrice Grinda: So my current day job is to be the founding partner at FJ Labs which is a venture fund – actually it’s an accidental venture fund. It really came out of my angel investing activities while I was an interpreter.

So for the last 24 years, I’ve been building companies, I’ve been running companies and. Other founders kept approaching me for me to invest some of them. And for the longest time I thought they were, should I be doing this right? Is it a distraction from my core mandate as a founder to be investing in other startups?

And I’m like, if I can articulate lessons to learn to others it probably means I’ve internalized them. And so it’s okay. And meeting all these amazing founders beyond helping them realize their dreams is also an amazing way to keep my fingers on the pulse of the market. So by 2013, when I sold my last company, which by the way, was like dried or missing.

I don’t know if you want to cover that until I went, the last company was real quick. So the last company was a company called oh blocks. It’s today, the biggest classified site of the world. It’s a 11,000 employees in 30 countries. It’s the leading classified site in Brazil and all black tem and Russia, Ukraine, all of these sued Europe and India, Pakistan of all the Southeast Asia and the UAE and all the middle east.

And it’s basically what Craigslist would be or should be if it was running. By someone like me, meaning a modern UX UI, integrated payments and shipping and escrow. Exactly. No, no spam, no scab, no birders, et cetera. And actually targeting primarily women in a female friendly space, given that women are the primary decision makers in all household purchases.

That companies like over 300 million new users of mothers is absolutely ginormous. And after I sold that already at 150 investments doing really well already pulled them with my current partner. And I was like, I like building companies like invest in companies. Let’s create a structure that allows me to do that.

And I never really set out to build a venture funds. And I think by virtue of being visible, I started being approached by potential investors and said, Hey, we would like exposure to where you guys are doing. Do you mind if we co-invest with you? And so 2016, we took our first investor LP for 50 million, one LP outside of our own capital.

Yeah, it’s again, what I be basically they’re people that had it, it’s a company called . They were a big telco in, in Norway. And they had backed my biggest competitor when I was running about locks and ultimately we fought a big war and we merged 51 for us, 49 for them. And by then we, all of this I’d like unwell.

They’d made like a billion dollars and they ended up owning a whole bunch of classified assets around the world. And they were like, Hey, we love you. You’ve also made us a lot, lots of money. We’d like to understand what’s going on in marketplaces in the U S to either bring it to our markets or defend against disruption.

And so it was really both strategic for them. And financial in 2018 we raise fund two and they’re like, Hey, if you want to bring other people on board, why not? And other people’s sorta approaching us. So we started getting like a lot of family offices that were being disrupted by tech and a lot of other strategics were interested in investing in the category.

And so we finished deploying that and that was a hundred, 225 million finished uploading that in July of 2021. And then we close fund three, which would be like three, 400 million with either amazing founders that I’ve worked with forever, like Reed Hoffman, or, whatever Kevin, Ryan, or the founder of Wayfair or these family offices were actually strategics interested in either buying or investing leader seizures in the companies move us.

So I guess w w. That was a long-winded way to answer your question. So my day job is running FJ labs. FJ labs is an a, a venture fund specializing in marketplaces. We invest in every geography in every category at every stage. But the focus is we really do angel investing at venture scale. We don’t lead, we don’t price.

We don’t take board seats. We decide after two, one hour meetings, whether we invest or not with full transparency, we tell them why we’re investing, why we’re not investing what we need to change for us to change your mind. And we try to be as Frey, founder, friendly as possible. So we’re not setting the terms we decided very quickly.

And we’re super prolific. To give you a sense of scale to date, we’ve invested in overheat 150 startups. Last year, we invested in 281 startups, so 180 new investments or 101 followups, and it’s a lot for a venture firm and it’s been going really well. We’ve had 265 exits and so far in a 45% realized I are.

So things are good. 

MPD: That’s great. Okay. So what’s the typical investment profile. Cause when you say angel investing at a venture scale, I get the angel investing part that your, the process is less rigorous it’s you’re looking at more strategic elements rather than doing your own diligence.

I get that nothing wrong with it. The question is when you say to venture scale, is that the reflection of the volume, the amount of capital you’re managing the volume, what is it? The check size? 

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah the angel investing in venture skills really because of the overall. Capital deployment. We’re deploying a hundred million a year, 150 million a year potentially, but this funds which is way more than typical angels deploy.

Now, the reason it’s still angel investing is writing small checks relative to the lead. We don’t want to compete with the top VCs in the world for allocation. We want to be their friends. In fact, most of the deals come from friendly VCs or sharing deals with us in return. Of course, we send them all of our deals.

And so our pre-seed check size is going to be like 200 K or C check size, like 300 K or eCheck size is 3 25 or beyond words is 7 25. So it’s fixed check sizes that we’ll take lots of philosophers available and they’re always small relative to the lead. And that’s why it’s kind of angel investing in venture scale.

But I’m more than happy to talk to you and walk you through the process of how we decide whether we invest or not. If you’ve 

MPD: teed it up, let’s do it. 

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah. So actually, before I get to the process, I’ll walk me through the flow. These days, every week we get about 200 inbound deals and often many more than that.

And they come from three sources, a third comes from the friendly VCs and every eight to 12 weeks, we sit down the top hundred VCs in the world, covering every siege, every category of geography and we share deal flow. And it goes from everyone the amplifies or whatever first submitted to the pre-seed stage with the.

General catalyst, Bessemer Sequoia first walk in the middle, all the way to whatever the tigers at the leader stages, where we bring them all of our best seals. And in return Bain by to some of the deals where we have expertise. So mostly marketplaces about a third of the deal comes from fellow founders.

So at this point we’ve backed almost 2000 founders in the 835 companies. And they come back for their next company. They send us their friends. They’ve sent us their employees to becoming founders and about a third of the deals come in cold. And it actually, we review even the cold inbound deals and that 16% of the investments we’ve made have come from cold.

And some of the very best investments come from cold. So we get these seals they’re assigned randomly to one of the team members, unless someone says they want it. We we’re four partners, three associates, and one analysts. And we reviewed the deal we decide, is it appropriate or not for us or not?

And usually about. Three quarters of them are not there. They’re amazing, but they’re not for us. They’re like biotech, hardware, space SAC, and we don’t feel that we have appropriate expertise. So we review and we, the other 50, we take a one hour call and that one hour call, we try to assess four things and that’s actually the evaluation criteria.

Do we like the team? Do we like the business? Do we like the deal terms? And does it meet or pieces of where the world is heading? Now, let me double click on all four of these. Do we like the team. Every VC in the world will tell you. I only invest in extraordinary people. The thing is that’s extremely subjective.

What is an amazing team? And we’ve actually looked and thought through what it meant for founders to be very successful for us. It’s someone who is both a visionary and an execution machine. And that means someone who is extremely eloquent and as extraordinary communication skills. But that’s not enough because if you only have that, maybe you build a you build a very large company, but one that’s not profitable or it doesn’t scale, et cetera, but that’s, that is necessary.

It’s a necessary but insufficient condition. Because if you have an amazing, if you’re an amazing or rater or public speaker, you can attract better teams. You’re going to raise more money. You’re going to get better PR and you have better. But you also need to be able to execute. And we look at that, that we evaluated over the course of when our call is, how well do you understand the business, your hand?

How well do you understand you did economics? And we want you to be able to articulate even pre-launch, we want you to have done the lending page analysis and done a customer, cocky a customer acquisition cost analysis, and compare that to look at what the average order value in the industry is.

See what the net margin structure you’re expecting is. And you should be able to articulate that intelligently and the Venn diagram of people that are amazing storytellers and people that are amazing at execution is actually the intersection is very small and we want people that are both number two, Businesses that are compelling.

And for and so for many, some VCs, by the way, number one is enough. And if you’re pre-seed, pre-launch obviously will, this is the most relevant metric once you’re post-launch actually we do care, but the other three number two is, do we like the business? Which means for us, is the category large enough?

Or can it be larger enough through your execution and, or the unit economics is compelling and we are extraordinarily unit economic driven in marketplaces. And obviously this a little bit different if you’re in e-commerce is a little bit different if you’re in SAS. But we try to invest in businesses where you re.

You’re fully loaded customer acquisition costs on a net contribution margin basis after six months. And we’ll use three X your CAC after 18 months now. And ideally we don’t know what the LTV to CAC is because you have negative churn. In which case, who knows it’s 10 to one, 20 to one, et cetera.

And if your unit economics are underwater, which can happen, we want you to be able to articulate why with scale. They will automatically fix themselves. Maybe you’re in a food delivery business. And right now you’re doing one delivery per hour, you’re paying $15 an hour. Your delivery guy, your unit economics are under water, but the minute he does three deliveries an hour, it’s $5 a delivery.

And it works. Something like that. Like I don’t, it should not require every story. The multi-payer so align for you now, economics to work. And we really care about that because otherwise you may build a very large business that doesn’t make any money, which in the long run doesn’t really work out. Number three, what are the deal terms?

And we are. Yeah, nothing’s cheap and tough, but we want something that’s fair. In light of the size of the opportunity, the quality of the team, the traction that you have, 

MPD: what is fair? How do you think about that? 

Fabrice Grinda: So evaluations went up, especially in the late stage last year and, something I covered in one of my macro articles, but the median pre-seed the median valuations didn’t move up nearly as much as you might think.

And crypto falls a little bit of time that route, but then the median pre-seed for us until 2020 was like three to five pre raising one. And last year went up to six, seven, but not that much more. And so if you’re, pre-seed raising a 30, more likely than not, we’re not going to do it. The median seed used to be like re three raising at eight and nine pre and last year we went up to 12 and that’s still reasonable for us and the median a, you used to be, you’re raising seven at 22 and iRacing 10 at three.

And those are fair by our standard with relevant traction. So as your seed ran, we’re expecting you to have whatever, 150 key in GMV per month with a 10 50% take rate of the, a Rand, you’re doing 500 K in GMV and the B round, you’re doing 2 million GMV per month, more or less, it depends on the take rate you have, et cetera. Now there are exceptions, right? Like the rounds you’ve been reading about in the press are like, oh, they raise a $50 million series, a two 50 pre total, and these crazy. But yeah, we wouldn’t do those deals. There were amazing for the founders and the companies that actually I can make an argument.

Many of the companies that dies because the company, the founders raise too much money at too high, a price. They don’t grow into that valuation. And that kills the companies because of like anti-pollution provisions and it one more Sudan, Rams. It’s really one of the top reasons companies die is founders raising too much money at too high a price.

So we don’t do these deals. So the mean by the way is way higher than mean seed a and B is way higher than numbers I gave, but the media actually is not. And we’re so prolific. We have a good sense of where the market is. And so we stick to our with the exception that if you’re a returning founder for us, that has done well before we will back you, no matter what, no matter where you build, no matter the raise, et cetera, you don’t even need to take a call.

We’ll just send you the check. And so we have done a few crazy deals by that’s the reason it, also many of those deals are out of scope for us. Like we had the founders of a. Vettery, which was a labor marketplace then decided to go. And we sold a deco for a hundred million made of whatever, 8.5 extra money.

Everything was great. And then they went on to build Archer, which has an electric flying taxi company. And they’re like, we’re launching we’re pre-seed, 80 pre or whatever, a hundred pre. And we’re like, okay, here’s the check 

MPD: is those is the re-upping founders, your lumps, 

Fabrice Grinda: Ever increasing because we have 2000 founders, we backed, put it differently.

30% of the portfolio is non marketplace. And many of those are the re-upping founders which is a good sign that they have they’re coming back and they would have worked with us. But we also do like tools around marketplaces, et cetera. And we’re doing a lot of stuff. That’s like an interest things that interest us, which actually leads me to selection criteria.

Number four is your idea in line with our thesis of where the world is. And we are extraordinary thesis driven. We have a clear thesis on the future of finance, the future of food, the future of see the future of automotive, the future. And even within marketplaces, we have three core thesis on marketplaces that we look for and we want ideas that are in line with that.

And in a way we’re also mission driven, right? The reason I’m a VC, the reason I’m an investor is I, the world is facing a number of fundamental problems. We’re facing a climate crisis. The, we have a social inequality and inequality of opportunity or social injustice. We have a mental and physical we’ll be in crisis.

And the, I do not think that a. The political system is going to address any of these. And so it’s up to us as founders to use, to be solutionist to use technology, to find solutions to the world’s problems. And so it is mission driven from that perspective. I want to try to invest in companies, founders that are trying to address these fundamental problems.

And by the way, the bigger, the problem, the bigger, the economic opportunity, and it fits better in a for-profit model because this actually ends up being more scalable and more effective. And here we have it. If we’d love the team, we’d love the business. We’d love the deal terms. And we think that the ideas in library, their thesis, we invest and we can decide that in one hour.

MPD: That’s great. What’s the what are the reasons why a founder should choose to work with you guys? This is my underhand pay. 

Fabrice Grinda: And take a swim, the were former founders. So we actually know what it’s like to operate a business and we can talk extremely intelligently about the complexities of operating a business.

We’ve probably seen more marketplaces than anyone else either. And in addition to the fact that I run marketplace, I’ve run marketplaces for most of my life. And so when it comes to everything from like building liquidity, do you start with the supplier, the demand, should you go hyper-local or national or international?

W should your rake be 5% of 1% of 20% you’d have, how do you measure it? Let’s see supply demand. We’re probably more. Versed. Any other investors out there in this category in terms of being able to help you and last but not least, we’re in an ma because we don’t lead and we don’t price. And we have these amazing connections with all the other VCs, we will get you funded.

Like our superpower is we will get, if you need help raising your filling this round, we will do that for you. And more importantly, and most people do not need help raising a specific, the ran they’re typically talking to us about but if they, when they go to the a, when they go to the beach and they go to the sea, we will ensure them to whomever, like first of our grade lock and Driessen whomever is right for them.

We will make the intros and is extremely valuable for them because it directs the fundraising and makes it a lot simpler. We will give them feedback on like them, but back on the pitch on the process. And it’s also super efficient because you’d we have 850 companies in the portfolio and yet.

We’re often the most value added investor these founders have because we really focus on when to help them, we’ll do, we’ll help them right before they go fundraising the next ran and that’s the most valuable for them. 

MPD: Okay. So there, there is a implicit piece of this that I think is the most interesting.

It’s the sheer volume of your portfolio, right? There are a couple of firms out there that have huge volumes Techstars. My buddy, over at David phone number Techstars has a huge volume. He’s had a very different model than you. You have a huge volume. It’s not as common. Most firms are going out there and targeting 25 deals in a portfolio.

Is something there about what is your thinking around the optimal volume in a portfolio? 

Fabrice Grinda: First of all this is a reflection of my personality and not there’s no intelligent portfolio construction. So I actually have done the research. And what is the ideal portfolio construction by the portfolio of F J labs is completely built.

Bottom line. We meet people. If we’d like them, we invest. If we don’t like them, we don’t invest. And at the end of the year, the chips fall where they may, and it just so happens. Of course, there’s more seed deals and ideals, more aid deals and deals and CDLs, there’s more U S deals than European deals or European deals in India and Brazil deals.

And so if you look at our portfolio for a number of deals for of, we’re mostly seated a then a few B’s and very few season and not too many pre CD there. And then we’re 55% us Canada. We’re 25% Europe. We’re 10% Brazil, India. We’re like the rest of the world and really all over the world.

But it’s not by design. Now in terms of number of deals to answer your question specifically, is I diverged on portfolio construction. The I actually I think there are many problems to solve in the world and I like finding ways to address many of these because we choose not to compete with the major VCs.

We could actually not run a concentrated portfolio. So first of all, by design, if I wanted to invest in 30 companies, I would need to be a lead and I would need to ride like five, 10, $15 million trucks. Then the entire strategy. Of working with the other VCs and being their friend and other competitor becomes invalidated.

But more importantly, as a reflection of my personal philosophy, I just like, meeting lots of interesting people and being exposed to all these different areas. And I get I, now I have a great sense of what’s happening in like everything from climate to to automotive, to real estate.

And I think it’s fascinating there also the corollaries between these other industries, which are the marketplace dynamics so much closer to people suspect. I find that fascinating. And so it’s more a reflection of my personality, but that said there is data, but what is the correct portfolio size and angel listed and analysis of what your return profile looks like based on the number of deals you have.

And basically because venture follows a power law. The best deals return, do most of the returns you need to be in those best deals. And the best way to be in those best deals is essentially to be in every deal. And so the angel was study, which actually was published in peer reviewed and all that is the more diverse your professor of your portfolio, the higher your IRR and your returns that you should invest in all qualified.

And they have a definition of what qualified beans deals possible. Now, the reason most VCs are not built that way by the way, is actually driven by the LPs. So LPs heat that diversity. Because they see their jobs as themselves picking the VCs that are more specialized. So the LPs are like, oh, I’m going to have this fund.

That’s going to be my series, a B2B SAS company. I’m going to have this one. They’re going to be my series B DDC e-commerce in Europe, whatever. And they do, they’re like little funds of funds, strategy and fund that does all that for them. They really don’t like, because in a way it’s like the job they should be doing.

And so LPs are not super keen on that diversified strategy. And so it wouldn’t work for most, but it really works. And the benefit is over longer periods of time. We’re always going to be in the title. That’s solid before now and anyone fund life, by the way, we’re never going to be top decile because if you imagine a fund, eh, is hyper concentrated, they do 10 investments.

One of those is a hundred X. They’re going to be at a 10 X funds and they’re going to be topped us all, but they’re going to have massive variability, next fund they’re 10 may not hit and they made Richard money. And by the way, most VC funds actually don’t return cashflow cash money beyond the S and P the top Cortel does.

And the top quartile is actually highly correlated over, over fund life by most do not it our case. We I’ve been, if you include all of my history as an angel investor and but not as a founder, right? I’m not including my benefit. The equity I got into companies I’ve founded on the 270 exits we’ve had a 45% realize I are over 24 years either.

That’s I don’t know where that ranks. It has to be in the top 10%, maybe in the top 1% over that time, Peter. 

MPD: Given that you’re diversifying so much, is the core value add more sourcing or is it more deal selection? Because one of the things, theoretically, arguably the best portfolio is one investment, all the money in the world and the best company, the best returns, that’s it.

But the presumption there is that someone could be a good enough deal picker and get access to it. The core issue for a lot of VCs is they’re not great deal pickers. So how do you think about this? Is that the message to LPs like, Hey look, we’re good deal pickers, but we really don’t have to be because we play the game so broadly.

Is that part of the narrative for you? 

Fabrice Grinda: Not really. So we were actually would argue we’re very good deal pickers. We will buy often. We will not be in the top 0.1% of deals by the way, because we’re so sensitive on price. And we’re so sensitive on unit economics, either like we would have passed the Facebook, we would have fastened Google because neither of them had business models when they launched, nor could they articulate where those models, the, those those models were.

But we have a lot of singles and doubles and triples. So even though our portfolio is so broad, we’ve actually made money in over 50% of our exits which for a seed, mostly seed fund is extraordinary. Last year we had 41 exits, we made my name 24, we lost one in 17. And obviously you make a lot more on the 24th and you lose on the 17.

So I think we were very good pickers, number one, but two, obviously our deal flow is amazing because we built a brand as these founder friendly. Guys who’ve decided after you investor died, who were super helpful. And if you’re doing anything marketplace related, by the way, marketplace, let me define it pretty widely as if you’re building something that’s an intermediary between a seller of something and an a at a buyer or something.

And that thing could be anything. So to me, most of FinTech is the marketplace because, think of Clarita. It’s an intermediary between providers of capital. Typically the banks will give you the lines of credit and consumers that are borrowing. And many people wouldn’t think of it that way.

But to me, those dynamics, if you’re matching sellers, the buyers, regardless of the category it falls in the marketplace definition for us, which is obviously why we can invest at 300 marketplaces in a year. 

MPD: Okay. So there’s a little bit of learning here. I think you’re a bit of a pioneer in this type of volume for something outside of an accelerator incubator model.

Yeah. Whereas this model gone wrong that you had to correct. What did you learn along the way? That’s nuanced to not being a VC and not being an investor, but being a high volume VC or high volume investor, 

Fabrice Grinda: The way luck what’s I don’t know if it has gone wrong in the sense that we can typically.

First of all, I don’t think it’s necessarily easily replicable by most because we are in extraordinary privileged position to answer also part of the previous question where the deals come to us, right? Like most associates and analysts and most VC firms spend their time like networking and finding deals.

In our case, we’re like drinking at the fire hose of incoming deals and we’re reviewing the incoming deals and we would like to do more at boundaries, just we’re too busy, previewing main band. And we have the 200 Ben bands. We’d there’s. Yeah, we do miss seals as a result of that. So I D we are trying to change that to some extent, even though, so first of all, there’s the, part of the reason I can share my entire strategy online, including everything, the deal memos, the philosophy, et cetera, is even if you had all of it in your mind would encode it, even though probably hard to do without the 24 years of like ad bats of seeing 5,000 companies a year without a deal flow.

So I really replicable now where it’s gone wrong. Yep. Sorry. 

MPD: And as I say, FJ labs is a 

Fabrice Grinda: marketplace. Yes, we are our marketplace. Absolutely. We’re matching founders with money, from our LPs. And by the way, our LPs I’m the largest LP in the fund, right? Like about 450 million we’ve deployed to date, over a hundred million of that is my own money.

Maybe one 50. I actually, haven’t tried to look at it too closely because this started as a frankly personal investments for my partner. I said myself again, the accidental VC thing. One more thing. I know, I didn’t answer the question. One more thing we do very differently by the way is the following.

So we. We don’t reserve capital for follow-on. So we’ll invest that of whatever fund is currently active. The follow-ons. So we tell our, because we don’t always follow on we’ll evaluate follow-ons as though they were new investments, knowing what we know now, the company of the team would the terms, would we invest?

And often the answer is we love the team. We’d love the company, but the valuation is insane, so we’re not taking our Paratas. And so we’re, we’ve been following on and maybe 33% of the deals. But as a result, it doesn’t make sense to reserve capital fellows in a fund. So we do it in other funds, which leads me to the issues in a way we face, right?

Like the problems we face. As we have had a really hard time, much harder than ever to expected raising capital other than the capital that keep to us automatically. So we’ve had these LPs that are like friends. They’re like, here’s a check, they know 

MPD: you were, I know your success, 

Fabrice Grinda: those exactly, or strategics that we’ve worked with from across many years who want to exposure where we do or family offices.

And so there, the capital’s come, but pitching institutional investors has been really so far. We don’t have a single institutional investment partner differently. They don’t love. Anything about what I just described the hyper diversification, because they feel that in a way it’s their job to find different funds that cover different areas and hyper diversification number of deals.

They don’t like that. We’re multi-stage, they don’t like that real multi geography. They don’t like that. The follow on strategy is in whatever fund is currently active in which versus, having capital reserve followings in the original funds. And so all of that. And so it’s been, it’s taken way more time to raise capital than I would have liked.

And also as a result, we’re proudly a much smaller fund that we should be. So right now, we’ve closed for student 10 million of the new fund and you find. It’s three to 500 million, five, really a hard cap. I would like to hit it, there’ll be at least 300 million and it’s been seven months.

It’s mostly the existing investors. Re-upping yeah, there are new investors like founders that we’ve backed that have excess exited that are investing in it, et cetera. But again, we have, don’t have a single institutional investor in the fund because of all the reasons I, and I’d like to change that because the reality is we should probably, we could be a billion dollar fund with no problem.

Despite the not leading, not pricing strategy with given the volume we have if you do, if I do intelligent portfolio structured, like what is the maximum size I can deploy at pre-seed without leading to 25 K or so maximum check size, I could deploy at seed without leading it’s four 50 at AA could probably write a million.

That’d be, I could probably write 2 million and let’s see. It could be right, probably right. 5 million and up to 10 million in like the pre IPO Rams. And so if you look at all the deals last year, all the allocations we had, we could have deployed 350 million. And yet we didn’t have that level of capital.

And so we only deploy a hundred million. So what we’ve done to not run out of money after a year because our LP base is not such that I can actually. Say, oh, instead of three years, we it’s just one year and now we are re-upping they don’t want that is at nor could I, because I’m the biggest art piece.

It’s also driven by my personal cashflow. And so what we did instead is we men decrease her check sizes to not run out of capital. So currently, as I said, our HX size is 3 25 K. It could be a million or beach, X size is 7 25. It could be two and her and frankly, DHX license. So the 25 K and could be 10.

And so that’s been an issue I’m trying to address it and we’ll see if we were successful in the future now, in terms of underlying performance and access to deals, et cetera, Matt, I think B hasn’t been too much of an issue, I guess the other issue, it’s something we’ve learned as we’ve had to build a very big ops team.

The team we’re 30. Which is a lot of people are most people 

MPD: doing, cause it sounds like 10 or so those are investment professionals. What do they, yeah, 

Fabrice Grinda: so yeah. So four partners, three associates. Why now? So eight investment professionals we have two but then we have a big back office team or like the head of operations, the CFO the lawyer, the, all the accountants and the that are in the back office team.

And then we have all the support team for them. So when 

MPD: you say 200 deals a year, you mean 200 pounds of paperwork? 

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah. Let’s do a lot to do. Yeah. Everything, stock, purchase agreements, follow ons, legal approvals, exit, there’s infinite back office work to do. And actually one more thing we haven’t done is we’re currently not gap dot a gap accounting, because like, how do you do gap accounting on.

800 startups and we don’t even, we want to be the founder friendly guys and so doing an evaluation of each company in the portfolio when they’re like seed is a massive exercise that most, firms, which is another reason we haven’t been able raised institutional money. And maybe we need to have bite the bullet and do it.

In fact, we’re currently talking to Mike CBO and YC and, people like that, like how do you guys do it? And we probably need to buy that bullet at some point. But yeah it’s a lot of the issues that like you don’t think about when you’re dealing, when we’re lower volume from, 

MPD: okay, now you guys are the marketplace experts, and that’s very clear what are three rules of thumb that marketplace entrepreneurs listen to this need to know the things that are like, Hey, these are the baseline pro tips, right?

Fabrice Grinda: When you’re building your marketplace and you have your chicken neck problem the. Place to start is with supply because the sellers on the platform are financially motivated to be on the platform. And I would go to them and set said, low expectation and saying, Hey, we’re launching this. We’re free to launch at the beginning.

And we take just a rake, a B in there, but here’s the key. And here’s the pro tip. It’s easy to have infinite supply, but if you’re drown your marketplace and infinite supply and you’d have demand for it, they’re all going to turn. They’re not going to be engaged. So when you launch, you curate the very best supply for it in one vertical, in one category, maybe even in one geography, like in one zip code, and then you find demand for that.

And first of all, there are the very best. So you make sure they’re engaged. You make sure they understand where the product is. You understand what their needs. Then you find demand for them, whatever way it is. It could be sales driven. It could be marketing, it could be Google, it could be Facebook. And by the way, I actually like paid marketing to work because that means it’s scalable kind of infinitely you find demand and what you wanted to get to for that supply.

And again, very limited supply, highly curated. You want to represent. If it’s an item for sale, you want the probability of the item for sale to be about 20, 25%. That’s when you have pretty good liquidity, if it’s a services business, you want to represent at least 20% of the revenues of that provider.

And then once you have that at that scale, then you scale the supply up one more like whether it’s in the same zip code or gee sitter, adjacent category, and then you match. So you always, you start with supply, you bring them in and then you scale both always in parallel. A problem is it’s so easy to get supplied that you could launch.

I could launch a locksmith marketplace and put every lots within New York on it, but then you have no demand for it. And so the supply is going to churn. There’s gonna be no engagement and the users, we awful, et cetera. So doing that is, is key. So that’s I guess somebody human mind or like magic trick number one, magic trick.

Number two is, as you start thinking about. How do I monetize? How much do I charge? Who do I charge? And what is the correct percentages? Because you see marketplaces like stock photography, marketplaces that takes 75%. And then you have some B2B marketplaces where it’s essentially 0% rate or 0.1% because of extreme price sensitivity.

And so the correct way to assess that is you look at the less toxicity of supply and the less, the city of demands and you take your rake on the more and elastic part of the curve. And the more elastic it is, the higher the rake is that turns out that in most cases you can take 10 to 20% from the supply side, but it’s not a hardest at roll.

It really depends on how fragmented your supply and demand is. And by the way, the more fragmented it is, the better it is for you as the marketplace, right? If you’re in a market where there’s three or four suppliers and three or four consumers, You’re probably not a marketplace. You’re probably a distributor.

And your ability to price and take margin is going to be very limited. And that’s why I be very careful of playing in like highly concentrated industries. It happened to me and not really a market place, but I was I ran a company that was selling ringtones to the mobile operators.

And in the early days it was okay. But like between 2001, when I launched in 2005 and my mom, I sold in 2004, but 2005, when I left all the operators, consolidated merge with each other, like singular with, at and T Verizon with they’ll remember whom I’ll be like. And also when we went from. 50 customers.

So four and on the music come to a five and on the music company side, they all merge with each other like BMG and whatever, and EMI and whomever. And they also went from like many to three or four. And so all of a sudden there were four and five and it wasn’t an issue until we had 50 million in annual revenues.

But the minute we hit 50 million annual revenues, we started being seen by the VP level at these companies. And they started seeing us in their P and L and they started squeezing and squeezing. So in 2004, with my company, we did 50 million in revenues and 4 million in profits. In 2005, we did 200 million revenues and seven and eight in profits because they basically divided by our margin by three.

And so that’s not a marketplace, you’re a distributor, you’re a facilitator, but it’s not a proper marketplace. 

MPD: Okay. So now you guys do more than invested FJ labs. I know this is evolving. You guys have been a studio, right? You’ve been building companies. You don’t talk about what you guys do when the method for it.

Fabrice Grinda: Sure. The reason we were a studio is really, I say, bang. It’s what do I like to do? I like to build companies. I could invest in companies. I love that. And so every year we’d be coming up with ideas and it was like, try to build them either personally and go run them, which I did for a few of them or with entrepreneurs and residences.

And we created through happenstance, a program that ended up being successful. So what happened is. I don’t even remember the year, maybe 2010 or 2011. This young founder reach out to me and he’s Hey, I’m McKinsey, Harvard business school. I am I’m at HBS right now, but I’ve raise 500 K and trying to build this company.

And Eddie kept harassing me. The thing is I was running billing oil, super busy writing a relaxer. I’d like, so that 10,000 employees in 30 countries, and I was getting emails like that, like dozens every week. So I ignored him and ignored them. And one day he’s Hey, I’m at the door of your office, can we meet?

And I’m like, okay, maybe I’ll beat him. Maybe I’ll leave. Let me be. And he was building like some sort of chat roulette for competitor, and I’m like, terrible idea. Won’t work return the money to your investors, call it a day and. Cultural back the next day. He’s oh, thank you for the radical honesty and candor to when I’ve been like honest with me.

I talked to my investors, I offered to return the money and they said, no, let’s find an idea. And another idea. So now why don’t you and I look on fighting an idea together. I’d have I’d like to know the last thing I want to have time. And I kept saying, no, I kept saying no. Then he emailed me a check for $5,000.

He’s I’m going to pay you $5,000 a month to work for you. And I’m like a fight. Keep your money. Yeah. You’re super motivated clearly. Let’s let’s see if we can do this. And in a way it it was useful because it forced me. The first thing I made him do is help me filter my inbound deal flow.

And at that time it was 200 a week. It was like 40 a week. And I was like, can I teach someone else? Might Euro six K I could have fight how to evaluate a team, how to validate if the business attractive, what my thesis is what appropriate deal terms are. And can I have him, do that for me and not pass the next Uber and turns out that while he was useful, because it forced me to structure my thinking on what my Euro six were and teach them to him.

And once he started seeing all the deal flow, he started getting ideas, sorta applying the same criteria to his own ideas. And then we started 50 ideas then became 10, then five and two, then one, then we pivoted and that company became adore me and adore me is a laundry DDC, commerce subscription company, both econ not which today is I don’t know, over 200 million revenues, I don’t know, 20 million tickets.

It might be much more than that, but I’d like at least that and crushing it. And the last thing he did. And I told them too, it was like, find me your replacement. And so we started a program where we would go to the first year of business school at Harvard MIT, Wharton, Columbia, Stanford, we’d say, Hey, you’re S you’re going to join us.

Full-time during the summer between your first and second year, half the summer, you’re going to be taught venture capital. Not because we want you to be VCs, but because we want you to see where the ideas are, how to pitch how to write a great effective deck and keep your pulse on the fingers of the market, your fingers on the pulse of the market.

And number two, pap the summer, you’re going to be in the company we’re currently trying to build. So you understand what it’s like to be an early stage founder, that profile. So the reason we took these schools by the way, even. On average, we’d rather have people that don’t go to business school.

It’s frankly, it’s just an easy filtering mechanism. And, but we only wanted people who wanted to be founders. And most of them, the profile was they were product managers or city managers of one of the larger marketplaces, like Instacart or Uber or or Airbnb. And they want to now go and do it on their own.

And and there were an HBS like looking for ideas and maybe improving their skills that like finance, something like that. So they join us for the summer during their second year they’re part-time 15, 20 hours a week. Mostly helping us filter inbound deal flow. And then when we graduate.

They become full-time EIRs meaning we pay them. I don’t know where the salary was, like maybe 135 K years. I’m like that to look for ideas with us, they look for their own ideas and we meet like on a weekly basis to iterate. Now, also every twice a year, we bring the entire team investment team, everyone like in the team together once in February and once in August and July, usually my house interest in kaikos who are in Canada.

And we have to all come up with ideas that don’t exist in the world of tech that should and out of these. And we usually come up with like a hundred, a pop or 150 up opposite, two to 300 ideas a year of which they can actually go and go deeper and pick some of these et cetera. And we typically would take two weeks.

I bet there’d be some churn because some people decided to build companies that were not, for us, some people decided they don’t want to be founders after all, et cetera. And we ended up building a lot of companies like that. We some successful some not so much. So we built a company called BP, which should have been Carvana, raise 150 million and was worth 700 million in like in famously blew up.

We, the main mission is we try to have the founders fail fast. So we try to build a company. We build a company called punch show, which is like an entrenched company and it didn’t grow big enough. And so we decide close it, but then we’ve had a lot of companies that are really doing well. So we’re in Rebag, which is a handbag marketplace.

I think they’re going to do 200 million of revenues this year and I’m like that that is that the founder is amazing. We were in properly, which is a Zillow Trulia meets compass meets a open door for Canada. Absolutely crushing it. Last round was like, multi hundred billion dollar valuation we’re investors 

MPD: in that with you great company.

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah. Yeah. So I’m chairman of that one and unsure is one of the best a EIRs we’ve ever had also we’re the best founders we’ve ever had. The team is amazing. We’re in Mundey, which is a trade finance company between Mexico and the us helping us and B some Mexico export of the U S and there, they grew from zero to like tens of millions and originations in a year and a half.

Like my, my, I know that it sends really definitely over 10 million might be over 20 million now. We’re in like Seafair, a marketplace for helping shipping companies find seafarers, a work rise for shipping where we’re in a umami card versus vertical. And grocer in the Asian category, we’ve created Milko, which is a kind of Shopify for restaurants, helping people build digital brands in food and helping them operate restaurants operate better and more effectively.

Many of these that actually I ran one of them for a while, actually to 2014, 2015, I built a mobile classified site in the U S called Salud, which I then merged with wallop pop. I ran Walla pop. USAA was true, but a wallet pop. And then we merged that with let go, which now of course has merged with offer up.

So now it’s offer up and that’s a multi-billionaire company, which I ran in 20 14, 20 15. And the CTO model is as follows. Very different, very generous because we do very few. We, you come in, we pay you 135 K until you find idea, once you find the idea we put in the first seven 50. With 65% of the capital going to the team, 35% to us.

And then we commit the next 2 million at either 10 million valuation or market, if you can get better terms but we have the right invest 2 million in your next round. And and so the T it’s not at all, like some of the other studios out there where the teams get five, 10, 50%, or in our case, they started at 65% and actually real capital, right?

Like you guys have got 2.7, 5 million. So if you don’t want to go to market for the next first two years, you don’t really need to. And that model’s really worked well. Intrusive, like it’s fine. We build amazing companies. The problem is it’s time consuming and my time is not scalable. I’m still, I’m on the board of and these companies it’s the opposite model.

We’re coming up with the ideas. And often I even rent product like Rebag and lofty. I was like, I went to Ukraine and Romania and I hired the team. I re I was like scrum master. I was like, I was actually writing the stories and managing the teams. I was working day and night for them for many years.

And now I’m still on the board of like most of them ones I just mentioned. And so that model, it’s amazing. But it’s just too time consuming. And so putting that on hold for now, but we still have two or three more to build. We still have two more to build as we speak, despite the fact that we’re not recruiting a new batch and in 20, 22 

MPD: only so much for breeze.

That’s a lot of sounds like you’re spread pretty thin if you’re doing. 

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah. Yeah. Plus we have a SPAC plus the a week plus I do a lot of stuff in crypto, independently. What we do at FJ yadda I’m spread too thin as is. And so my current what I’d like to find a way to do while I. The reason I built the team to 31 is actually to do all the, a lot of the stuff I don’t like to do, which the good news is that the problem is when you’re going to something, the world sends you, the universe sends you more of that.

And so the temptation of course is to do more and more. But I need to find a way to be more scalable. And I think putting aside started the studio to spite of how much fun it is, eh, and just focusing on the venture side because it’s more scalable and POS probably more useful for humanity in the long run, but in terms of like placing bets in so many categories to try to address it, all the world’s problems is broadly a better allocation of time.

And I can tell 

MPD: you’re inspired by it. Yeah. You’ve had a lot of success. I think that’s safe to say maybe an understatement of the day. Did you grow up. 

Fabrice Grinda: Yes and no is the, which is a weird answer. My great grandmother so I greet great grandmother in the late 18 hundreds inherited a hotel from when her husband passed away.

And instead of doing the done thing and and marrying again, she had decided to just take over the hotel, which was like fully embedded. She turned it around, made it super profitable, then bought another one. Then another one, she ended up owning all of the luxury hotels in nice owning half of the residential real estate of niece, basically becoming the wealthiest thought.

And if not the wealthiest, one of the wealthiest women in the world in the late 18 hundreds She gave it all to, she had multiple children, she gave it all to, or oldest Augustus who was actually an effective manager and didn’t lose any of it, but a force by the time. But he didn’t do the same thing.

And by the time. It’s kissed took over. It was split between all of them and they all spent basically the new VAR reach. All they want to do is hang out with the queen of England and the prince of Monaco. And by the time of my grandparents’ generation, by the time my parents came along, there was basically nothing left.

And so the, I imagine a generation that had been brought up with the idea that they were going to be wealthy, never need to work. It’s the silver spoon in their math, and yet didn’t have anything already be to show for it. And so my father had started from scratch. So when w we were living, the four of them.

Brother and I have two brothers, so I’d like when we started at my brother and my parents, like in a studio apartment and he started working for this French billionaire as an endless, and they’re a leveraged buyout firm in the seventies. And so we came from, even though we had come from family that had a lot of money by the time my parents level, there was nothing left.

And so we started with nothing. I went to public school but in 1989 when I was 14 my father’s father was became grossly of the ranks. We can to CEO of the company that that, that guide bought through an LPO. And they sold it for whatever, like a billion dollars. I think my dad had a 5% of it in stock options.

And it’s like the pre not venture capital per se, but like a similar model and overnight became wealthy. And actually you retired at the age of 41, which I think was a huge mistake. But I guess it didn’t live through it because I, at that point I’d already, I was living with my grandmother and niece and then I’d left for college and probably out of ego.

I decided I didn’t want to take any require, ask for any help. So I paid for college. Most of them, I saw, for my living expenses myself. So I had to work. Like I went to Princeton and when I was 17, but I’d like to work four jobs plus build my first company to pay for it, et cetera. Whereas probably the easier thing would have been asked my parents for money.

So because at that point of time we did have money. Cause that was two years after my father had become wealthy. But because I had left kind of my parents, I was living with my grandmother. I also didn’t really notice a shift. And so I came from an upper-class family that was probably middle-class in income.

But that rose through the ranks. And then all of a sudden became wealthy at the. A 50 for me by my parents. My parents are getting, 

MPD: but from a life experience standpoint, it sounds like you had more modest sensibilities as a kid than maybe generations before you what’s. How has money changed your life now because you’ve had tremendous success?

I know that is challenging for a lot of entrepreneurs who are going through these cycles. What have been the ups and downs of this evolution for you? 

Fabrice Grinda: I don’t know first of all, as a kid, I was just built differently from everyone else in my family. I was like really serious, like until post-college I was like Shelton, for me it was all about like intellectual pursuits and getting a pluses and skipping all the grades and winning the Olympiads.

And I was completely antisocial not at all a good public speaker or. Just different. Like I cared about like studying economics and philosophy and getting a pluses and nothing else and map like no interest outside of that. And no time for anyone, including by the way, my family, I was extremely arrogant and condescending as a kid of you guys are not smart enough and worthy enough of my time and attention, including my parents, by the way, I was like, so it’s funny because in a way I was the best kid ever, like always a plus is going to bed early, not doing anything bad, et cetera, but it was also.

At difficult kid in the sense that I’d like, didn’t provide much love. It was like, yeah, you guys are not smart enough for me. Leave me be I’ve learned. And it’s interesting because I have come to value people, I think as you’ve you put the emphasis and value and things you were really good at.

And of course that I was really good at being smart and not so good at anything else. And so of course that was my prison by which to value the world. And as you become older and also more confident and successful, you’re also realize there’s so many ways to be and to live. And it’s not my ways a personal value judgment, but there are many other ways that are absolutely amazing.

That to answer your question directly it’s a little bit of a non-sequitur know. So I became wealthy and in 2004, I sold a zingy for $80 million and I own 53% of the company. So I made $43 million net of tax. It was like 26.5. And what’s interesting is in a way it didn’t change anything.

I still lived in a studio apartment for a few more years. I think the big purchase of that time, it was the next box of TV and two tennis rackets mostly driven by how busy I was. Like we were growing, we grew from 15 million in revenue. So for it’s two hundred and two oh five. I can moving offices every four months and thinking we re-did that.

And like it kept, we kept getting bigger and bigger offices and hiring. So it didn’t really hit me completely. What’s interesting is my first company where I built in 98, 99, like my company on paper is worth hundreds of millions and that it comes so easily that I didn’t realize how much money that was like at 28.

I started my bath company at 23 is like an eBay of Europe. We had a buyout offer. 300 million at 40% a company, I was going to make $120 million. And again I’m like, man, of course everyone makes money to me. Other than that, it’s just a bubble. Everything seemed easy. I did not realize how, because you, 23, you don’t know any better.

And also I never really lacked for money. And also I never really, I never money was never an objective. It’s like a means. It’s not even a Misa net. I want to be a tech founder. That’s all I wanted to be. And whether or not I was going to be financially successful was irrelevant, which is why, by the way, in 2006, After the bubble bursts and, I made I went from hero to zero basically, and was bankrupt in 2001.

Then I realized maybe I should have taken a secondary for a couple of million, which is people will offer it. And I’d be like, nah, a couple billion who need, I want to be Bebe. The founder of there’s all in. I don’t want to take money off the table, et cetera. I’d like a more to prove I want to be the ideal entrepreneur.

And of course for me, I thought like a couple of millions, nothing. It forced at that point, I was thinking that having literally nothing in my bank account that I realized, oh shit, no money is really hard to make. It’s very easy to lose. It’s very hard to make. But in 2001, when I would have built zingy.

This internet thing is it’s dead. It’s small. It’s not big and no big deal. At the end of the day, I didn’t do this for the money. I did this to be, I wanted to create something and nothing. I’d love tech. So I’m going to build a new company. It’s probably not going to be big and it doesn’t matter. Now, lo and behold, it turns out I made sure that it wasn’t dead.

Despite every company had got on web van Petlock com MCI work on everyone had got under. And at that point in time and VC soft investing, but came back and B was financially successful. Now what has done for me since is I value experiences and I value my time. And so what I use the money for is I have a, I have a Butler or a an estate manager and who’s also my chef and does all of the offline things that I don’t like to do, so I don’t cook. I don’t clean. I et cetera. I have a virtual assistant in the Philippines and managers of my entire life. I. I go heli skiing, which is extraordinary, expensive, by the way for fun. Now I don’t own any physical goods per CyberKnife. I have a house in Turks. I have a house and I have a department, New York avenue.

I have a house in Revelstoke, but I don’t have, yeah. I really have a sense of cars or clothing and luxury, et cetera, all those things. I don’t think mattered too much for me. I think physical goods are anchors. But for me it’s more using the financial success I’ve had as a means of buying Experiences.

I love helping people around me and I give millions a year, but beyond giving millions a year to charity, I actually give millions a year to my friends as a means of changing their lives and making the, making a difference on the day to day of their life. And it’s a bit non-traditional other way.

But these are people I’ve known for 20, 30 years. And so I tell them, don’t expect it to be recurring. It just happens when I have an exited where I feel you’re in need and it’s meaningful for them. And I don’t think it impacts our relationship. So I think it’s been an amazing tool and it’s also been amazing to have freedom.

Like my dream, for instance, in and FJ labs is actually not to have external investors. If it’s the maximum I can invest with my current strategy is 300 million a year. If I have 300 million a year of I owed money to deploy, I would do that and not have any external capital. That would be way easier. That would remove the part of my life that I don’t like of dealing with LPs and fundraising and like and whatever, a gap, accounting and sec registration and all that stuff.

I would do that in a heartbeat. Financial success is really a means of free personal freedom to do what you want. When you want to have the experiences you want to have and to help the people around you. 

MPD: Was there a moment when you felt like you got your sea legs with being wealthy, where it went from, figuring out what that meant for you to, okay.

I got it. I know my framework for how I want to use money to have impact my friends, my personal life, et cetera. 

Fabrice Grinda: Eh, happened automatic over time automatically like the. I soon as I add capital, I started investing in startups. So I really stayed all by angel investing in 2005 and I knew I wanted to deploy capital into.

To back the, my friends were building companies and to help them realize their dreams and to solve the problems in the world. So that immediately came to me in terms of helping my friends did that leader, but I realized how, what I started considering like a little capital could change.

It could make a difference in the lives of my friends, a friend of mine, she was running a dermatology clinic in New York and she was making whatever a half a million a year. And she decided to said to go run a cancer research, live at Harvard and make like whatever, a hundred K a year. Profound difference in her income yet for the world.

I thought I was like a massive net positive contribution, but as a result, she could no longer afford like the down payment or a house in Boston. So I paid that for her and I think it’s the right thing for you and your husband and your kids to be able to love and amazing place. So you can actually do research this meeting folder of the world and that sort of happened.

Little by little over time. No, I’m not sure there was ever like a, oh, this is a correct strategy. Very rapidly. What I did realize is I don’t, I never followed traditional wealth management advice. You go to these wealth managers or like Goldman or whatever, and they’re like, oh, you should have 50, 60% equities and 30% bonds and blah, blah, blah, like crazy.

None of that ever made any sense to me, I have a complete barbell portfolio where it’s like a 10% of cash because you want optionality of being able to take advantage of things in crises, 10%, crypto, 10% public Sox of the things that have gone public in my portfolio that I still like and old 10% of real estate that’s really consumption.

And then everything else is like early stage Texas tech stuff. A completely barbell works really well. I realized it was much better at doing that. And ma which is essentially the same thing as like running FJ labs. If your labs are in a ways, a family office, and good on that front. And I made many mistakes.

Like I, I lost in a way millions dollars and Billy’s trying to buy a big chunk of the country to preserve the rainforest, which, taught me something about a rule of law. I lost millions dollars in Dominican Republic doing something at a much smaller scale, instead of hundreds of thousands of acres doing it with 165 acres, wanting to build a big community where I would bring founders and spiritual leaders and and artists to just create and be there with no business model, but like everyone from the mayor to the minister of tourism and environment, all wanted bribes and create an environment that was all super tenable.

So lost millions of dollars. Pursuing, if you, these houses, I made many mistakes along the way, but in general, at the end of the day, my true north star of help those around you. Help the world through, in my case, second Vaseline. So like finding solutions, the world’s problems, and like by yourself and living the life you want to lead has been amazing.

By the way, through that process, I did a lot of iteration in 2013. I’d actually 2012. I gave almost all my physical possessions to charity. I went down to 50 items that fit in a carry on my backpack and my tennis bag. And I went cap surfing and France couches for a year that I went like an Airbnb.

I lived in Airbnbs and hotels for three years beyond that all around the world. Like making sure I allocate time to invest in my friends and friendship and my friendships and my family in a way I’d never done that before. 

MPD: And why did you need to do that? Just cause the material items were owning you at some level.

Was that the thinking, did you have all the goods to do that? To have related 

Fabrice Grinda: time allocation? If you have like at a country house in Bedford and I would go and it was amazing, right? Like I, it was huge and we played paintball there and like it organized like parties. We played video games the way they gave me a room, et cetera.

But at the end of the day I went there because I was paying so much for it, which is the wrong reason to use something. The minute I didn’t have an apartment, the minute I didn’t have a house, I was like, okay, dad, I have infinite freedom and flexibility. Where do I want to be? Who is it that I want to be spending time with?

And so being, when you have a default, you go to that default, if you remove the default option, you can be way more thoughtful about what it is you really want to do, who it is, what it is you really want to hang out with. And the fundamental problem I was trying to solve for is. As you get older as your friends.

And I start getting married, having kids jobs, et cetera. I like the quality of the tea. The texture of your friendships, like changes when you’re in college, you’re remaking the world. You’re starting to you’re seeing your friends seven days a week. Even at McKinsey, I would see my friends date many days.

Many hours every week. And all of a sudden it would came at like the biographical update. I, we see you once every six weeks. And at that point is what happened to your husband and your work, et cetera, and your kids since then? And it’s fine, but it’s not the reason that we became friends. We became friends because there was a more fundamental connection and perspective and beliefs of some of the world and extraordinary conversations.

And I wanted to rekindle that in, in my thirties, in a eighties, it seemed to have gone away between the age of 25 and whatever 35. And I’m like, there must be a way to change it. And others were not making the adjustments to their little. Why don’t I adjust my life to make it happen. And now there are many false starts, right?

Like the couch surfing was a total failure because of course it was Dean and cab. The fact that I was at a position in their life and they saw, I’d like to bring skids to school and go to work, et cetera. The Airbnb thing worked really well until her BB was made illegal. It may most of the major cities and like across New York, all the high-end inventory to spirit then they will tell us all became full.

So I was like moving hotels every four days. So that’s actually the reason I ended up buying an apartment in New York. I was very happy living in like billionaires apartments, for a month, at a time in every neighborhood in New York, hosting dinner parties there. But once I had to live at hotels and move a tell, remember five days, I’m like, okay, that’s not viable.

And I couldn’t find high-end re rental inventory. I liked, so I bought a place, but. I guess people don’t put enough iteration and design and thought into their lives. They follow the default, whereas you can throw stuff on the wall and see what sex and see what sticks for you, right? Like people are built differently and what they want to do and how they want to lead their lives.

And they followed the, I guess thing, the default path way too much. Like my life is very non-traditional in general. I do a month in New York than a month intrusive kaikos I’ll do a month in Canada. Because New York and is socially artistically, professionally extraordinary intense.

And if you’re doing, you’re not thinking, and then I come to church and I’m working during the day. I’m in trucks right now and we’re doing this call and I have 12 calls today, but I’ll meditate. I’ll go, kitesurf, I’ll play tennis. And I’ll take the time to read and write and think and be reflective and rebuild my batteries.

And then most people don’t necessarily think through what is right for them in light of their energy level, personality, et cetera. And so that iterative design is alive, made it alive by. 

MPD: I love all that. You mentioned through there that you do a lot of charity, which I think is great. I particularly was interested in the buying a Britain forest or attempts to do taking it that further.

I would love to hear your take on impact, right? Is there a cause that you’re passionate about or some particular topic? Let me put it a different way, because my favorite way to ask this question, if you were king now, president king, what is one thing you would change? 

Fabrice Grinda: So I’m going to give the hyper rational answer to that.

Please, if you look at all the policies you could do in the U S and which ones would actually impact wellbeing for people the most it’s actually, there’s one thing that has much larger impact on personal outcome than everything else. And in the U S social mobility as a client, it used to be the 95% of people made more money than their parents.

Now it’s about 50% since people born since 1982. And the main reason for that is that the top cities are the ones where all the jobs created for all the opportunities are, have become unaffordable. And the reason there aren’t affordable is we’ve passed extraordinarily idiotic, zoning and landscaping laws.

And at that, that mean that you cannot build as easily as you should be able to. And there’s a lot of reasons for that. If your current owner restricting supply means your thing your homes increasing value dramatically. But it’s extremely bad for like social mobility economic diversity.

And so you look at San Francisco, 80% of the city is zoned. Apartments are illegal. You can not have more than two story buildings. And as a result, you have the cities become extremely unaffordable. So if I could change one, one thing is essentially. Remove all air rights, all essentially zoning and construction regulation.

Other than a few, see if you’re not going to be building over whatever central park, but like air rights and city and your city make no sense. Like having these buildings that are less than a hundred year olds old, be like landmark that you can’t build over them makes no sense. You should be able to build up as much as you can.

And we should have unlimited supply. And of course, there’ll be a lag of eight years or 10 years before things get built and prices adjust. But at that actually solves affordable housing. And when you solve affordable housing, you recreate mobility and your lack of people to get the best jobs. And this is what changes the outcome more than anything else.

Now that’s not a something I’m investing in any way, shape or form or. Because there’s crazy nimbyism and political forces against it. And it’s, it has to be in the U S the rules are like literally like neighborhood by neighborhood. And it’s so painful. So I, as king, I would do that. That is not where I keep my claim to.

Now I’ve not put a lot of thought into charity. That first of all, what I do at the charity level, it is way more personal and directed will have a much larger impact on the lives of the people I help, but it’s much more smaller scale. Like in the Dominican Republic, I helps pay for the education of 10,000 kids from K through 12.

It’s amazing for these kids. So it changes their life outcomes, dramatically program. 

MPD: You do that through, or you just set that up. 

Fabrice Grinda: No, it’s the dream project that I was funding. And I, but I helped them beyond that. I helped, I built like a tech center where they could learn programming and to have access to computers and internet and find jobs, et cetera.

I fund something called the university of the people, which is helping non low-income people basically get us degrees, especially in things like computer science. And there are people from like our over a hundred nations and they often end up getting jobs at Google, Facebook, et cetera.

So it’s been mostly right education, helping people be able to increase their out their life outcomes through adhesion often in the communities where I was living, I lived in the Dr for largest spend, like four or five months a year from 2012 to 2019 2018, the men I’ve done a lot of that now, separately I’ve dragged given directly.

Contributions to many of my friends and like dozens of them, right? And we’re talking millions and millions of dollars, it’s life-changing for them, but I don’t larger scale. All of that is dwarfed from a social and economic impact by what I do. And as a tech investor, right? Like my tech investments of hundreds and hundreds of companies, I think ultimately will change the lives of billions of people.

And yeah, they’re for profit, but there’s a fundamental social motivation for them. And I think they will dwarf anything I do on the direct investment and the direct shadow charity frame. That’s why most of my personal capital is actually allocated to investing technology, to solve the world’s problems.

And I think we will, by the way, I’m extremely optimistic on how we’re gonna address climate change, inequality of opportunity, et cetera. 

MPD: It’s been great having you on. Thank you so much for doing this. 

Fabrice Grinda: Thank you for having me

MPD: every time I talked to Fabrice, I feel a little bit smarter, very grateful for him being on the show today and grateful to have him in my orbit, working together and doing deals together. It’s a great guy. If you liked what you heard, please hook us up with a like or a five-star review. This is my basic pandering.

Help us out. You can find me on Twitter at MPD. And to hear more of my conversations with innovators, subscribe on YouTube, Facebook, or any major podcast platform. Just search for innovation with Mark Peter Davis.

為什麼?

本周我在挪威的芬斯為即將到來的極地探險進行訓練。 訓練包括每天滑雪25公里,同時在暴風雪條件下拉著130磅重的雪橇,睡在冰冷的帳篷里,吃脫水食物,只有一把鏟子作為洗手間。 這是痛苦的、寒冷的、困難的,但我喜歡它。

我經常思考,為什麼很多像我這樣的企業家喜歡冒險旅行和極限運動。 這似乎具有諷刺意味,因為我們擁有我們所希望的一切。 這是雙重諷刺,因為我生來就心存感激和樂觀。 我沒有一天不感謝生活給予我的一切:一個了不起的家庭、許多親密的朋友、健康、追求目標的機會、探索的自由以及幸福的天賦。

那麼,為什麼我們要把自己置於剝奪我們所感恩的東西的境地,並冒著失去一切的風險呢?

我清楚地記得在2000年駕駛一級方程式賽車。 當我把它推到極限時,時間變慢了。 在那一刻,我從未像現在這樣充滿活力,我知道如果我走得再快一點,我就會失去控制。 經過一生的職業和個人冒險,作為一名喜歡直升機滑雪、風箏衝浪和進行多種冒險旅行的科技創始人和投資者,我有一些見解。

1. 對心流狀態的熱愛

流動狀態是神奇的。 在這些時刻,其他一切都消失了,你與周圍的環境保持同步,與你的環境在最高水平上運作融為一體。 然而,它們是轉瞬即逝的,不是人類狀況的常態。

正如我將在即將到來的 《偷火》評論中詳細介紹的那樣,極限運動是駕馭心流狀態的絕佳方式,因為它們需要專注和專注。 死亡的風險似乎讓猴子的心靈平靜下來。 就我而言,我的頭腦一開始就很安靜,可能是因為我患有幻覺症。 然而,我仍然喜歡在深粉雪中滑雪時進入的冥想狀態,欣賞風景,在飄逸的舞蹈中穿梭在樹林中。 同樣,我喜歡在風箏衝浪或風箏衝浪時在海浪上飛翔,感受陽光照在臉上,風吹拂頭髮,感受周圍海洋的氣味,體驗腳下海浪的輪廓。

上周也是如此。 我筋疲力盡,在白茫茫的暴風雪中拉著雪橇,我看不清自己是上是下。 我的整個視野都是100%的白色。 我所做的只是專注於我的呼吸,一隻腳滑行,然後以有節奏的方式滑下另一隻腳:一、二、一、二,一遍又一遍。 我進入了一種恍惚狀態,感覺與元素融為一體。 我們的頭腦一定不喜歡空白的畫面,因為我開始發現我們在一個山谷裡,有一個避難所,在遠方提供庇護的希望。 在那一刻,我明白了迷失在沙漠中的旅行者如何看到綠洲的海市蜃樓。 (需要明確的是,我沒有服用任何物質,迷幻藥或其他物質。

這並不是說極限運動和冒險旅行是實現心流狀態的唯一途徑。 恰恰相反,我通過冥想、迷幻藥、密宗性愛或在打板式網球時體驗它們。 這些都是我們可以用來達到相同狀態的不同方式。

在西方,人們用來達到心流狀態的最常見方法是掌握一項技能。 目睹這些魔術的展示總是令人驚奇的。 我們總能分辨出我們何時目睹它。 這就是為什麼我們對費德勒、梅西或喬丹的實力如此敬畏,並相應地獎勵他們。 我在很多情況下都經歷過這樣的經歷:在舞臺上看史蒂夫·賈伯斯,參加德倫·布朗的魔術表演,在百老匯聽漢密爾頓,還有無數其他時刻來自掌握了技能的“正常”人。

使用技能作為進入心流狀態的手段的一個要求是掌握。 當我學習滑雪、網球或風箏衝浪時,我從未處於心流狀態。 我專注於技巧和重複。 只有當你掌握了足夠多的東西,這個過程才能在後台消失,你才能進入這個區域。 你會得到豐厚的回報,但你必須投入時間。

這就是為什麼我推薦極限運動和冒險旅行。 它們是捷徑。 你不需要精通。 讓我證明,在寒冷和越野滑雪中生存時,我真正擁有的技能是多麼少,但所涉及的危險會集中你的注意力,並充當流動狀態生成機器。

2. 人類狀況中根深蒂固的意義感

人類似乎對感受危險和刺激有這種根深蒂固的需求。 它可能建立在我們的心靈中,因為在智人存在的大部分時間里,我們面臨著來自其他人類、野生動物和自然本身的死亡。

這就是為什麼我的許多軍人朋友在服完現役回家後經常難以適應。 現代生活的平凡與他們每天面臨的生死攸關的情況相比似乎很乏味。 與他們與戰友的紐帶相比,淺薄的傳統友誼顯得蒼白無力。

我們覺得現代生活的本質有些空虛和不令人滿意,一切都是安全的、經過消毒的和膚淺的。 也許我們都需要一點危險和風險來提醒自己我們活著是為了什麼。

極限運動和冒險旅行就是這樣一種綜合風險。 我們面臨風險,但處於可衡量和可控的環境中。 我們不想經歷真正戰爭的痛苦和匱乏,但我們的心靈需要感受到風險的快感和可能性。

值得注意的是,許多“有風險”的事情並不像乍一看那麼危險。 當我告訴父母我在23歲時離開麥肯錫時,他們嚇壞了。 我剛剛晉陞為助理。 我一年賺將近二十萬美元。 到目前為止,我從未真正失敗過我嘗試過的任何事情。 除了離開這份工作的安全和聲望之外,他們還擔心失敗會壓垮我。

在某種程度上,他們是對的。 在我的第一次創業中,我從零變成了英雄。 在兩年內,我將其增長到每月超過1000萬美元的商品銷售總額,擁有100多名員工。 我登上了每本雜誌的封面,是法國互聯網革命的英雄。 然後一切都崩潰了。 互聯網泡沫破滅了,我從英雄變成了零,失去了一切。 我父母最擔心的事情已經實現了。

然而,我真正失去了什麼? 我對自己的能力很有信心。 即使我不得不在他們的沙發上崩潰一會兒,我也不擔心我會餓死。 更糟糕的是,我總是可以回到麥肯錫或找一份固定工作。 我知道我的技能是有價值和有價值的。 作為回報,我過著有目標的生活。 我有明確的重點和使命感。 這就是為什麼我最終選擇繼續做互聯網企業家的原因。 反正我不是為了賺錢而進去的。 我只是想從無到有,用技術説明世界變得更美好。 當泡沫破滅時,我以為我要建造的任何東西都不一定很大,但這並沒有打擾我。 最後,我的評估是錯誤的,並且取得了超出我最瘋狂的夢想的成功。

探險旅行所涉及的風險也是如此。 死亡的風險極小。 我認為人們真正害怕的是他們將面臨的不適。 誠然,你會面臨不適,但作為回報,你會通過現代生活中無與倫比的勇氣和堅韌獲得成就感。

3. 感恩練習

當人們面臨失去它的風險時,他們最欣賞他們所擁有的。 我非常感激,但每次我從一周的露營回來時,我都會非常感激所有我們認為理所當然的小事。 我真的對現代生活的魔力感到敬畏。 我驚歎於一按按鈕就會亮起的燈,從水龍頭中流出熱水的能力,更不用說室內管道的便利性了。 我也對現代社會的美食感到無限感激,在現代社會中,每一種風味和味道的組合似乎都是可能的。

不要讓我開始了解現代通信和旅行的魔力。 從本質上講,我們所有人都可以在一個兼作免費無線視頻通信系統的設備中訪問我們口袋裡的人類知識總和。 我們可以與來自世界各地的無數人保持聯繫。 最重要的是,我們有辦法在不到 24 小時內去世界的另一端看他們。 這些壯舉在過去不僅是不可能的,而且基本上是不可想像的。 它們是如此非凡,以至於感覺就像真正的魔術!

4. 對偶然性的開放態度

在我的極地探險訓練中,我最終與傑克·克萊因德勒博士共用一個帳篷住了幾個晚上。 我們一起度過很長一段時間並共同面對逆境,這種神奇的結合使我們真正依賴彼此生存,使我們成為了好朋友。 我開始喜歡他的智慧、個人使命感、直率、滿嘴髒話的幽默感和對冒險的渴望。

然而,真正的魔力在於,這完全是計劃外的。 如果他主動聯繫我說我聽起來很有趣,我們應該一起去露營互相瞭解,我會拒絕的。 我過著忙碌的生活。 然而,當你對呈現在你面前的機會說“是”時,就會發生這種偶然性,我相信我們會在未來幾年成為朋友。

5. 新學習

學習新事物是一件很美妙的事情。 把自己置身於新的、陌生的環境中,是學習新技能、創造新的神經連接和保持年輕的絕妙方式。

我一生中做過很多溫暖的天氣露營,但從來沒有做過寒冷天氣的露營,除了那天晚上我不小心在黃石公園的八月暴風雪中,完全沒有準備,裝備也不當。 同樣,雖然我是一個偉大的高山滑雪者,但我從未越野滑雪過。

在過去的一周里,我必須學習很多東西:如何以一種不會被南極風吹走的方式佈置帳篷;如何越野滑雪拉著 130 磅重的 pulk;如何在帳篷內融化積雪取水和做飯;如何在整個過程中保持溫暖;還有更多。

我還發現芬斯是世界雪地風箏之都,所以我決定延長我的逗留時間學習雪地風箏。 因此,我正在考慮延長我的南極之旅。 我應該在明年一月滑雪到南極。 現在,我想我也應該從南極放風箏回到赫拉克勒斯站。

6. 思路清晰

把自己從日常生活中解脫出來是一種深思熟慮和反思的絕妙方式。 我們經常有想法壓在我們身上,需要做出決定。 然而,現代生活的忙碌和被當下抓住的情緒使我們很難超越我們的爬行動物大腦並啟動清晰、冷靜的思維。

冒險旅行會帶你脫離正常環境,看似危險的風險會幫助你進入催眠狀態,解決方案似乎無處不在。 你可以以新的眼光看待問題,並找到解決你所面臨的問題的合理方法,為你提供行動計劃和採取的路線。

7. 腳踏實地

取得成功有時可能意味著忽視需求和慾望之間的區別。 像極地北極訓練這樣的經歷可以重新體現這種差異,並提醒我們,我們真的沒有什麼需求——健康、水、食物、基本的住所和陪伴。

結論

生活就是這樣。 我們與家人和朋友一起策劃或陷入的經歷拼湊而成,並在我們的複述中與更廣泛的社區一起重溫,這些記憶使我們的心靈和思想保持活力。

最大的風險是不服用。 只要你掌握了馬斯洛需求層次理論中的基本知識,就可以對冒險、機會和看似冒險的努力說“是”。 它們的風險比看起來要小,你會感覺更有活力,進入神奇的流動狀態,獲得深刻的目標感,學會感恩,並在清理思緒的同時獲得新的魔法遭遇和學習。

作為一個新父母,我已經鼓勵我的兒子積極冒險。 他喜歡被帶去冒險。 我把他放在吊索上,當世界飛逝時,他高興地尖叫著,而我們騎自行車、滑雪和瘋狂地跑來跑去。 在我們說話的時候,我正握著他的手指,他試圖邁出第一步。

走出去生活吧!

偉大的未知

一年前,在 《歡迎來到萬物泡沫》一書中,我指出,前所未有的寬鬆貨幣和財政政策組合正在助長每個資產類別的泡沫。 我們看到股票、加密貨幣、房地產、土地、大宗商品和債券出現泡沫,SPAC出現全面的投機泡沫。 零售驅動的空頭擠壓和異常波動等不尋常的行為都表明我們處於或接近市場的頂部。

在FJ Labs,我們當然是泡沫的巨大受益者,因為我們所有的投資都在瘋狂地迅速加價。 我們敏銳地意識到,雖然我們認為我們在選擇投資方面做得很好,但我們也從泡沫環境中獲益。 在泡沫中,我們看起來都像天才。 我們把我的宏觀問題放在心上,並在一些高飛的贏家中出售了二級市場。 這並不是因為我們不相信它們,恰恰相反,它們通常是我們唯一可以獲得流動性的頭寸。 另外,我們通常只賣出50%的頭寸。

從那時起,市場出現了調整,尤其是科技股和加密貨幣。 40%的納斯達克股票在每個科技板塊的峰值到谷底都下跌了50%以上。

上市科技公司的倍數大幅壓縮。 SaaS倍數現在回到了長期中位數以下。

大多數加密資產也下跌了 50% 以上。

這就引出了一個問題,即我們現在應該做什麼。 這就是問題所在,因為我們從這裡走向何方是極其不確定的。 過去,我的思想更加確定和清晰。 在 1990 年代後期,我發表了一些文章,解釋說我們正處於科技泡沫中,雖然它會破裂,但它也會為即將到來的增長奠定基礎。 在 2000 年代中期,我在這個博客上爭辯說,鑒於房地產價格上漲,人們應該租房而不是買房。 如上所述,一年前,我建議每種資產類別都變得高估。 現在我可以合理地論證為什麼事情會復甦,為什麼它們會橫盤整理,以及為什麼我們可以有更多的下行空間。

不確定的宏觀和地緣政治環境

一個。樂觀的案例

我想從樂觀的案例開始,因為在這個厄運和陰霾的時代,幾乎沒有人相信它。 在截至 2022 年 2 月的 12 個月內,消費者價格指數攀升了 7.9%,是 40 年來最大的 12 個月漲幅。 為防止通脹失控,預計美聯儲今年將加息5次,累計至少1.5%。 從歷史上看,美聯儲最快速的加息都會導致經濟衰退。

公開市場回落的原因,尤其是科技股和加密貨幣等風險資產,是美國利率的預期上升。 利率上升對風險資產影響更大的原因是,在遙遠的未來,風險資產的價值更多地由現金流驅動。 公司的價值是未來貼現現金流的凈現值。

想像一下,一家科技創業公司預計將在10年內失去10億美元的現金流。 如果貼現率為 0%,那麼未來的現金流將使公司的估值增加 10 億美元。 但是,如果貼現率為10%,那麼10年後10億美元的現金流只會使公司目前的估值增加3.85億美元。 當我們以非常低的利率開始時,利率不需要大幅變化就會對估值產生重大影響,特別是對於大部分現金流來自相對較遠的未來的公司。

現在,通貨膨脹率上升的很大一部分是由於商品需求大幅增加導致的供應鏈緊縮。 這反過來又是由於消費者無法再旅行、去餐館、看電影等,對服務的需求減少。

有了所有這些額外的可支配收入,消費者開始在網上購物。 事實證明,我們的基礎設施並不是為了這麼快地擴展而設計的。 世界上的集裝箱船數量、可用的集裝箱數量、我們港口的輸送量、卡車和卡車司機的可用性、底盤(拖運集裝箱的拖車)的可用性,都不堪重負,堵塞了系統。 我們根本沒有足夠的這些基本供應鏈元素,也沒有足夠的彈性系統來將這些資產的供應轉移到需要的地方。

最重要的是,電子商務物流網路在地理和物理空間上與傳統零售業有著根本的不同。 它們更複雜,因為您正在邊緣緩存庫存以最接近您的使用者,而不是將所有東西都放置在單個中心的配送中心。 公司必須將其倉庫設在美國各地,這使得它成倍地複雜。 結果,在網上買東西的人越多,這些系統的超載就越多。

烏克蘭戰爭推高了能源價格並進一步擾亂了供應鏈,加劇了這種情況。

現在讓我闡明一個樂觀的結果如何發揮作用。 從服務到商品的購買轉變是由嚴格的COVID限制推動的。

想像一下,現在每個人都因為 Omnicron 而感染了 COVID 和/或接種了三重疫苗,COVID 終於成為地方病。 雖然它可能會伴隨我們很長時間,但我們學會了忍受它,各州在丹麥和英國設定的領導下結束了所有限制。 消費者恢復到他們的事前消費模式。 隨著物流成本的大幅下降,這將使供應鏈暢通無阻,並對經濟產生通貨緊縮效應。

最重要的是,新冠疫情救濟支票的結束應該會消除一些被注入經濟的過剩需求。 如果這種情況發生得足夠快,以至於通脹預期沒有根深蒂固,並且要求每年加薪7%不會成為常態,那麼通脹上升應該被證明是暫時的,使美聯儲的加息速度低於市場預期。

烏克蘭戰爭對市場情緒產生了負面影響,我們也處於不確定性的高峰期。 如果它在未來幾周或幾個月內達成解決方案,它應該會消除許多懸在經濟上的地緣政治風險。 我也希望普京在烏克蘭遇到的困難和經濟制裁的嚴厲性讓習近平重新考慮可能入侵或吞併臺灣。

如果通脹和地緣政治緊張局勢緩解,經濟將處於有利地位,繼續表現良好,市場復甦。 相對於其他正在醞釀經濟衰退的時期,公司的財務狀況良好,在現金頭寸和債務方面。 我們處於充分就業狀態,美國失業率為3.8%。 由於國會沒有考慮進一步的救助計劃,財政赤字正在急劇下降,額外的基礎設施和社會一攬子計劃將比最近的救助計劃小得多。

從長遠來看,技術也應該有助於應對通貨膨脹。 技術是通貨緊縮的,以更低的成本提供更好的用戶體驗。 新冠疫情導致技術在迄今為止幾乎沒有受到技術革命影響的經濟部門迅速採用:醫療保健、教育、B2B,甚至公共服務。 泰勒·考恩(Tyler Cowen)等經濟學家首先描述了“大停滯”,現在他們預測技術驅動的增長將重新加速。

在去年第四季度,我會將50%的概率歸因於樂觀的情況。 現在,我會說它大約是 33%,但不幸的是,它每天都在下降。

B.停滯案例

樂觀的情況要求通脹是暫時的,並恢復到允許美聯儲加息低於預期的原狀。 問題在於,通脹率保持在趨勢之上的時間越長(比如2-2.5%),通脹預期就越有可能根深蒂固。 經季節性調整后,2月份私營部門平均時薪同比增長5.1%。 雖然這仍然低於通貨膨脹率,但如果工人開始每年自動增加7%的工資以對抗通貨膨脹,這將使通貨膨脹率保持在7%。

各國普遍規避風險,行動遲緩。 他們放寬限制的速度可能比合理的要慢。 這將使對商品的需求被人為誇大的時間更長,使供應鏈堵塞,價格居高不下。 這反過來又會增加通脹預期上升的可能性。

人們也越來越感覺到,許多人會對更高的通脹感到滿意。 全球債務佔GDP的250%以上,創歷史新高,使政府、企業和家庭特別容易受到利率上升的影響。

持續上升的通貨膨脹將帶來許多代價:購買力下降、投資減少、資本分配不當、儲蓄價值的破壞。 然而,在短期內,負實際利率也會侵蝕債務的價值。

在戰爭時期,各州在相當長的一段時間內容忍了較高的通貨膨脹率,如下圖所示,包括第一次世界大戰、第二次世界大戰和越南戰爭。

雖然我們正處於俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的早期階段,但俄羅斯軍隊目前所處的泥潭可能會導致一場曠日持久的衝突,造成影響情緒的不確定性。

很容易看出停滯的情況是如何發生的。 利率上升,但不足以抵消通脹預期上升。 政客和美聯儲選擇接受高於趨勢的通脹。 當與地緣政治的不確定性相結合時,我們將面臨低實際增長。 在這方面,我們可能開始看起來像許多拉丁美洲國家幾十年來的樣子。 我們不應該跟蹤名義增長和價值,而應該跟蹤實際價值。 雖然市場名義價值可能不會大幅下跌,但實際估值很可能會隨著時間的推移而下降。

這種情況很可能是目前最有可能的情況。

C. 悲觀的情況

最糟糕的情況很可能還沒有到來,可能導致災難性後果的情景數量與日俱增。 儘管正在收緊政策,但按照歷史標準,美聯儲和政府仍在實施寬鬆的貨幣和財政政策。 加息1.5%可能不足以遏制通脹。 1981年,沃爾克將美國的利率提高到20%以上。

你不需要沃爾克2.0方案就能對市場和經濟產生重大影響。 即使是5%的利率,也就是2007年的水準,也會極大地減緩經濟並降低估值,尤其是風險資產的估值。 儘管公開市場已經調整,但估值仍遠高於歷史平均水準。

標普市盈率隨時間變化

估值從現在的水平下調一半並不是不可想像的,特別是考慮到能源成本上升和退出俄羅斯的後果,收益可能會受到打擊。

更糟糕的是,還有許多其他情況可能導致全球金融危機和普遍的“避險”心態。 政客、公眾和媒體似乎就像索倫之眼。 他們一次只能專注於一個問題。 很長一段時間都是特朗普,然後是 COVID,現在是俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭。 我經常在想,在新冠疫情之後,人們是否會將注意力集中在新冠疫情期間許多國家的政府債務水準不可持續地增加上。

義大利、希臘、西班牙和葡萄牙的公共債務在過去幾年中都出現了大幅增加。

在過去15年中,義大利的債務與GDP之比從100%上升到150%以上。

對義大利債務的信任危機可能會威脅到整個歐元項目的崩潰。 希臘債務危機引發了一場大規模的全球金融危機。 義大利的經濟規模是義大利的十倍,危機會更大。 在這種情況下,整個金融體系可能會陷入困境。 許多銀行將面臨違約主權債務的風險。 銀行會謹慎對待彼此之間的交易,其隱含的交易對手風險,就像2007-2009年大衰退期間發生的那樣。

這種危機也可能由新興國家違約或大型銀行違約造成,原因多種多樣,包括可能過度接觸俄羅斯。 瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)和瑞銀(UBS)尤其容易受到攻擊。 他們發現自己處於最近每一次涉及不良貸款的國際崩潰的中心,例如Archegos,Greensil,Luckin Coffee等。 以外幣計價的貸款本身就相當於瑞士GDP的~400%。 據官方統計,瑞士銀行系統資產是 ~ 4.7 倍 GDP,但這不包括資產負債表外資產。 包括這些表明 ~9.5x 10x 的比率更準確。

長期以來,瑞士一直被視為一個安全的避風港,擁有繁榮穩定的經濟和同質的人口。 我懷疑,在下一次危機中,瑞士銀行可能會大 到無法救助 ,而不是大到不能倒閉,並可能使整個瑞士經濟隨之崩潰。

這並非史無前例。 在全球金融危機爆發前的許多年裡,冰島被廣泛認為是一個經濟成功的故事,贏得了國際貨幣基金組織和精英評論員的讚譽。 很少有人注意到,在2008年之前的七年裡,冰島最大的三家銀行Kaupthing、Glitner和Landsbanki開始了一場壯觀的貸款狂潮,導致它們的總資產增長到冰島GDP的>11倍(之前為<1倍)。 除了貸款帳簿的龐大規模之外,冰島銀行還因對高度可疑的借款人(通常以本國克朗以外的計價)的承銷不力而加劇了風險(例如,~500億歐元的歐元貸款與僅~20億歐元的歐元存款)。 2008年初,當流動性枯竭,人們開始質疑冰島三大銀行的償付能力時,它們相對於冰島GDP總量的巨大規模意味著冰島中央銀行無法有效地充當最後貸款人。 結果是銀行系統全面崩潰,主權違約軟性違約和經濟蕭條,因為冰島本身不得不從國際貨幣基金組織獲得大規模救助。 克朗兌歐元暴跌~35%,冰島股市市值下跌超過90%。

我們不能忽視其他風險因素。 在美國戰後時代,每一次實際油價飆升至每桶100美元以上,都伴隨著經濟衰退。 這種模式在1973年、1979年、1990年和2007年都出現了。

地緣政治緊張局勢也可能升級。 俄羅斯在烏克蘭使用戰術核武器已不再是不可想像的。 這場衝突很容易席捲其他國家。 目前尚不清楚我們的紅線在哪裡,以及如果俄羅斯對我們北約盟國的基礎設施發動網路攻擊會發生什麼。 習近平也有可能在我們在烏克蘭分心時為臺灣做戲,進一步威脅全球穩定。

在不太遙遠的過去,我將所有這些情況的概率都歸咎於低概率,但現在它們的可能性越來越大,而且越來越有可能。

宏觀結論

現在的下行風險大於上行風險,因為我目前認為樂觀的情況為33%(並且還在下降)。 當談到你的恐懼與貪婪的切換時,是時候更加恐懼了。 然而,財富是在熊市中創造的。 正如巴菲特所說,當別人貪婪時,我們應該恐懼,當別人恐懼時,我們應該貪婪。

為了讓自己在熊市中發揮進攻作用(無論是作為投資者還是作為創始人),我們必須在熊市出現之前積極主動。 對於投資者和創始人來說,要點很簡單:現在就籌集資金。 對於創始人來說,這意味著籌集足夠的現金來生存,並在困難時期向競爭對手施壓。 對於投資者來說,這意味著提高流動性,以預期有機會以一角錢或幾美分的價格購買有吸引力的資產。

個人應該嘗試在今天的低利率下鎖定長期固定抵押貸款,而他們仍然可以。 我還建議以較低的 30 年固定利率將您可以借入的無追索權貸款金額最大化。 通貨膨脹將減輕您的債務負擔。 例如,我最近重新談判了我在紐約公寓的抵押貸款。

儘管通貨膨脹率很高,但我手頭還是會保留相當多的現金。 雖然它的價值正在下降,但如果出現大幅調整,它為您提供了廉價購買資產的選擇。 這就是我們在過去 12 個月中採取激進的二級戰略的原因。 請注意,我將現金存放在去中心化金融中,並將其作為產生高於通脹回報的低風險的一種手段。 我正在研究一種方法,與更廣泛的群體分享我自己使用的解決方案。

創始人現在應該籌集資金,同時密切關注他們的單位經濟效益和燃燒。 私募市場的倍數尚未壓縮到公開市場的水準。 考慮到潛在的倍數壓縮,儘管有1年的增長,您今天可能會獲得與1年後相同的估值。

歷史勝過宏觀

我確實想給你們一個樂觀的基調。 歷史的潮流壓倒了宏觀經濟週期。 他們只是在不同的時間尺度上運作。 過去兩百年是人類聰明才智推動經濟增長的故事。 在很長一段時間里,經濟衰退和戰爭幾乎沒有記錄。 即使是大蕭條,雖然生活不愉快,但只是進步史上的一個曇花一現。

在過去的 40 年裡,我們看到了無數的危機和崩潰:1981-1982 年的經濟衰退、1987 年 10 月的黑色星期一、1990-1991 年的經濟衰退、互聯網泡沫和 9/11 的破滅以及相應的 2001 年經濟衰退、2007-2009 年的大衰退和 2020 年初的 COVID-19 經濟衰退。 在所有這些過程中,如果你在技術上投入了大量資金,你就會做得很好。

我目前的資產配置如下:60%的早期非流動性初創公司,10%的公共科技初創公司(投資組合中尚未出售的公司進行再投資),10%的加密貨幣,10%的房地產和10%的現金。

我們仍處於技術革命的開端,軟體繼續吞噬世界。 我樂觀地認為,我們將看到技術驅動的增長重新加速。 我們將利用技術來應對我們這個時代的挑戰:氣候變化、機會不平等、社會不公正以及身心健康危機。

因此,通過FJ Labs,我將繼續積極投資於正在解決世界問題的早期科技初創公司。 未來幾年的宏觀環境可能很糟糕,但最終在很大程度上無關緊要。 我更關心我們將要建立的了不起的公司,以創造一個更美好的明天世界,一個具有社會意識、機會平等和富足的世界。

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